Retraction notice to: 'Monitoring droughts in Eswatini: A spatiotemporal variability analysis using the Standard Precipitation Index', Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies 11(1), a725.

[This retracts the article DOI: 10.4102/jamba.v11i1.725.].

Integrated drought monitoring framework for Eswatini applying standardised precipitation index and normalised difference vegetation index.

In the last decade, Eswatini has been affected by moderate to severe droughts, leading to huge impacts on the economic, environmental and societal sectors. The frequency and magnitude of drought have also increased, emphasising on the importance of drought monitoring. In view of the impacts of drought, it is of critical importance to monitor drought in near real-time and provide early warning information to stakeholders. The challenge however is the fragmentation of climatic data collection, the lack of agreed indicators and the poor coordination amongst institutions resulting in drought management being reactive, or 'crisis management' approach. A paradigm shift to a more risk reduction approach is therefore required to enable cost-effective and timely response to drought disasters. The capacity to monitor and predict the drought attributes (onset, frequency, duration and severity) is fundamental for spatiotemporal (drought) monitoring. Based on a review of country and regional networks, this research developed an integrated drought monitoring and early warning framework for Eswatini. The framework incorporated an early warning response trigger threshold derived from an integration of the standardised precipitation index and normalised difference vegetation index. The adoption of the framework allows for early warning and early action to mitigate the consequences of drought disasters. Drought preparedness and risk mitigation will help lower the eventual drought relief costs, protect food security and reduce the humanitarian impact on the population.

Integrating Standard Precipitation Index and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index for near-real-time drought monitoring in Eswatini.

Eswatini, as the rest of southern Africa, is being frequented by drought over the last decade, and modelling experts are predicting that drought years will become more and severe. The expected increase in extreme climatic events makes the use of drought indices essential for drought monitoring and early warning. To enable Eswatini to better prepare, analyse and respond to drought, this study analysed the use of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for near-real-time drought monitoring through the development of a model for drought severity. Meteorological stations across all agro-ecological zones with data for the period 1986-2017 were selected for analysis. The SPI computation was achieved through DrinC software. Primary NDVI data sources were CHIRPS gridded rainfall dataset and the MODIS NDVI CMG data. Results of the 3-month SPI indicated that moderate droughts were experienced in 1990/1991, 2005/2006, 2011/2012, 2012/2013 and 2015/2016. The Highveld and Middleveld had the lowest drought occurrence percentage of 3.3%, whereas the likelihood of having a moderate, severe and extreme drought was higher in the Lowveld. The study determined a positive correlation between the SPI and the NDVI at 3-month time scale, and a value of Y (drought severity) greater than 0.54 indicated a significant dry spell and could be used as a drought trigger threshold for early warning. The combined use of NDVI and SPI was deemed capable of providing a near-real-time indicator for drought conditions allowing planners to provide timely information for drought preparedness, mitigation and response planning, thereby helping to lower the eventual drought relief costs, protect food security and reduce the humanitarian impact on the population.

Monitoring droughts in Eswatini: A spatiotemporal variability analysis using the Standard Precipitation Index.

The spatiotemporal analysis of drought is of great importance to Eswatini as the country has been facing recurring droughts with negative impacts on agriculture, the environment and the economy. In 2016, the country experienced the most severe drought in over 35 years, resulting in food shortages, drying up of rivers as well as livestock deaths. The frequent occurrence of extreme drought events makes the use of drought indices essential for drought monitoring, early warning and planning. The aim of this study was to assess the applicability of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for near real-time and retrospective drought monitoring in Eswatini. The 3-, 6- and 12-month SPI were computed to analyse the severity and onset of meteorological drought between 1986 and 2017. The results indicated that the climate of Eswatini exhibits geospatial and temporal variability. Droughts intensified in terms of frequency, severity and geospatial coverage, with the worst drought years being 1985-1986, 2005-2006 and 2015-2016 agricultural seasons. Moderate droughts were the most prevalent, while the frequency of severe and very severe droughts was low. Most parts of the country were vulnerable to mild and moderate agricultural droughts. Spatial analysis showed that the most severe and extreme droughts were mostly experienced in the Lowveld and Middleveld agro-ecological zones. The 3-, 6- and 12-month SPI computations conducted in January detected the onset of early season drought, thereby affirming the applicability of the index for monitoring near real-time and retrospective droughts in Eswatini. Drought monitoring using the SPI provides information for early warning, particularly in drought-prone areas, by depicting a drought before the effects are felt.

Monitoring droughts in Eswatini: A spatiotemporal variability analysis using the Standard Precipitation Index.

The spatiotemporal analysis of drought is of great importance to Eswatini as the country has been facing recurring droughts with negative impacts on agriculture, environment and economy. In 2016, the country experienced the most severe drought in over 35 years resulting in food shortages, drying up of rivers as well as livestock deaths. The frequent occurrence of extreme drought events makes the use of drought indices essential for drought monitoring, early warning and planning. The aim of this study was therefore to assess the applicability of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for near real-time and retrospective drought monitoring in Eswatini. The 3-, 6- and 12-month SPI were computed to analyse severity and onset of meteorological drought between 1986 and 2017. The results indicated that the climate of Eswatini exhibits geospatial and temporal variability. Droughts intensified in terms of frequency, severity and geospatial coverage, with the worst drought years being 1985-1986, 2005-2006 and 2015-2016 agricultural seasons. Moderate droughts were the most prevalent, while the frequency of severe and very severe droughts was low. Most parts of the country were vulnerable to mild and moderate agricultural droughts. Spatial analysis showed that the most severe and extreme droughts were mostly experienced in the Lowveld and Middleveld agro-ecological zones. The 3-, 6- and 12-month SPI computations conducted in January detected the onset of early season drought, thereby affirming the applicability of the index for monitoring near real-time and retrospective droughts in Eswatini. Drought monitoring using SPI provides information for early warning, particularly in drought-prone areas, by depicting a drought before the effects have begun to be felt.

Assessing social vulnerability to drought in South Africa: Policy implication for drought risk reduction.

The aim of this article was to assess and identify social vulnerability of communal farmers to drought in the O.R. Tambo district in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa using a survey data and social vulnerability index (SoVI). Eleven social vulnerability indicators were identified using Bogardi, Birkman and Cardona conceptual framework. The result found that an SoVI estimated for O.R. Tambo district was very high with a Likert scale of 5 for cultural values and practices, security or safety, social networks, social dependence, preparedness strategies and psychological stress attributed for the high value of social vulnerability to drought. Indigenous knowledge and education had an SoVI value of 2, which was of low vulnerability, contributing positively to resilience to drought. The study also found that government involvement in drought risk reduction is limited; as a result, the study recommends that a national, provincial and district municipalities policy on drought risk reduction and mitigation should be developed.

The role of indigenous knowledge in drought risk reduction: A case of communal farmers in South Africa.

Even though the significance of indigenous knowledge in agriculture is internationally recognised, the role thereof in disaster risk reduction in South Africa is not well documented. This article determined the influence of indigenous knowledge in drought risk reduction in O.R. Tambo district of the Eastern Cape province (South Africa). Primary data were collected from 87 communal farmers through purposive sampling using a structured questionnaire. Focus group discussions were also held with the target group (farmers and extension officers) to gain more information and clarification on indigenous knowledge. The finding indicated that the majority of respondents (64.4%) relied on indigenous knowledge in their farming practice and drought risk reduction. Two-thirds (66.7%) of the respondents revealed that indigenous knowledge contributed to the resilience of farmers towards drought. The respondents unanimously agreed that indigenous knowledge is losing its significance in farming and drought risk reduction, because the younger generation did not value it anymore. Lack of documentation and deterioration of its application by the younger generation were found to be the main challenge for most respondents. The study concluded that indigenous knowledge was still an integral part of agricultural practices, applied drought risk reduction strategies and contributed to resilience against disasters. Based on the findings, the study recommends that indigenous knowledge be compiled, documented and published so that all farmers can learn of effective farming practices, passed on from generation to generation. Community holders of such information are encouraged to make younger generations aware of the benefits of indigenous knowledge to promote its usage.

Assessing the knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding cholera preparedness and prevention in Ga-Mampuru village, Limpopo, South Africa.

The study assessed the knowledge, attitudes and practices of cholera prevention and preparedness in Ga-Mampuru village (Limpopo, South Africa). Interviewers collected data using a two-pronged method, namely a household questionnaire (open- and closed-ended questions) to assess knowledge and attitudes about cholera and observations to assess practices in the prevention and management of the disease. Additionally, interviewers took pictures with the respondents' permission. Ninety-six respondents were interviewed. Most respondents (86%) indicated they knew how cholera was contracted with 84% indicating contaminated water as a source. Ninety percent of the respondents indicated they knew how to prevent contracting cholera. All respondents generally knew that cholera could be treated with medicine received at a health-care facility or worker. Fewer respondents (58%) had specific knowledge such as the use of rehydration solutions. The respondents' high level of prevention practices could be biased. Interviewers observed that many practices were not adhered to, like not washing hands, not using toilet paper and throwing waste in respondents' yards. Therefore, the community of Ga-Mampuru had not reached a stage of adequate cholera prevention and preparedness in spite of the fact that they were aware of cholera risks and risk-reduction measures.

Some international perspectives on legislation for the management of human-induced safety risks.

Legislation that governs the health and safety of communities near major-hazard installations in South Africa is largely based on existing legislation that had been developed in the United Kingdom and other European Union countries. The latter was developed as a consequence of several major human-induced technological disasters in Europe. The history of the evolution of health-and-safety legislation for the protection of vulnerable communities in European Union (EU) countries, France, Malaysia and the USA is explored through a literature survey. A concise comparison is drawn between EU countries, the USA and South Africa to obtain an exploratory view of whether current South-African legislation represents an optimum model for the protection of the health-and-safety of workers and communities near major-hazard installations. The authors come to the conclusion that South-African legislation needs revision as was done in the UK in 2011. Specific areas in the legislation that need revision are an overlap between occupational health and safety and environmental legislation, appropriate land-use planning for the protection of communities near major-hazard installations, the inclusion of vulnerability studies and the refinement of appropriate decision-making instruments such as risk assessment. This article is the first in a series that forms part of a broader study aimed at the development of an optimised model for the regulatory management of human-induced health and safety risks associated with hazardous installations in South Africa.