Attributes and predictors of long COVID.

Reports of long-lasting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptoms, the so-called 'long COVID', are rising but little is known about prevalence, risk factors or whether it is possible to predict a protracted course early in the disease. We analyzed data from 4,182 incident cases of COVID-19 in which individuals self-reported their symptoms prospectively in the COVID Symptom Study app1. A total of 558 (13.3%) participants reported symptoms lasting ≥28 days, 189 (4.5%) for ≥8 weeks and 95 (2.3%) for ≥12 weeks. Long COVID was characterized by symptoms of fatigue, headache, dyspnea and anosmia and was more likely with increasing age and body mass index and female sex. Experiencing more than five symptoms during the first week of illness was associated with long COVID (odds ratio = 3.53 (2.76-4.50)). A simple model to distinguish between short COVID and long COVID at 7 days (total sample size, n = 2,149) showed an area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve of 76%, with replication in an independent sample of 2,472 individuals who were positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. This model could be used to identify individuals at risk of long COVID for trials of prevention or treatment and to plan education and rehabilitation services.

Detecting COVID-19 infection hotspots in England using large-scale self-reported data from a mobile application: a prospective, observational study.

BACKGROUND: As many countries seek to slow the spread of COVID-19 without reimposing national restrictions, it has become important to track the disease at a local level to identify areas in need of targeted intervention. METHODS: In this prospective, observational study, we did modelling using longitudinal, self-reported data from users of the COVID Symptom Study app in England between March 24, and Sept 29, 2020. Beginning on April 28, in England, the Department of Health and Social Care allocated RT-PCR tests for COVID-19 to app users who logged themselves as healthy at least once in 9 days and then reported any symptom. We calculated incidence of COVID-19 using the invited swab (RT-PCR) tests reported in the app, and we estimated prevalence using a symptom-based method (using logistic regression) and a method based on both symptoms and swab test results. We used incidence rates to estimate the effective reproduction number, R(t), modelling the system as a Poisson process and using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo. We used three datasets to validate our models: the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Community Infection Survey, the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT-1) study, and UK Government testing data. We used geographically granular estimates to highlight regions with rapidly increasing case numbers, or hotspots. FINDINGS: From March 24 to Sept 29, 2020, a total of 2 873 726 users living in England signed up to use the app, of whom 2 842 732 (98·9%) provided valid age information and daily assessments. These users provided a total of 120 192 306 daily reports of their symptoms, and recorded the results of 169 682 invited swab tests. On a national level, our estimates of incidence and prevalence showed a similar sensitivity to changes to those reported in the ONS and REACT-1 studies. On Sept 28, 2020, we estimated an incidence of 15 841 (95% CI 14 023-17 885) daily cases, a prevalence of 0·53% (0·45-0·60), and R(t) of 1·17 (1·15-1·19) in England. On a geographically granular level, on Sept 28, 2020, we detected 15 (75%) of the 20 regions with highest incidence according to government test data. INTERPRETATION: Our method could help to detect rapid case increases in regions where government testing provision is lower. Self-reported data from mobile applications can provide an agile resource to inform policy makers during a quickly moving pandemic, serving as a complementary resource to more traditional instruments for disease surveillance. FUNDING: Zoe Global, UK Government Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome Trust, UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation, Alzheimer's Society, Chronic Disease Research Foundation.

Robust parametric modeling of Alzheimer's disease progression.

Quantitative characterization of disease progression using longitudinal data can provide long-term predictions for the pathological stages of individuals. This work studies the robust modeling of Alzheimer's disease progression using parametric methods. The proposed method linearly maps the individual's age to a disease progression score (DPS) and jointly fits constrained generalized logistic functions to the longitudinal dynamics of biomarkers as functions of the DPS using M-estimation. Robustness of the estimates is quantified using bootstrapping via Monte Carlo resampling, and the estimated inflection points of the fitted functions are used to temporally order the modeled biomarkers in the disease course. Kernel density estimation is applied to the obtained DPSs for clinical status classification using a Bayesian classifier. Different M-estimators and logistic functions, including a novel type proposed in this study, called modified Stannard, are evaluated on the data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) for robust modeling of volumetric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and positron emission tomography (PET) biomarkers, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) measurements, as well as cognitive tests. The results show that the modified Stannard function fitted using the logistic loss achieves the best modeling performance with an average normalized mean absolute error (NMAE) of 0.991 across all biomarkers and bootstraps. Applied to the ADNI test set, this model achieves a multiclass area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.934 in clinical status classification. The obtained results for the proposed model outperform almost all state-of-the-art results in predicting biomarker values and classifying clinical status. Finally, the experiments show that the proposed model, trained using abundant ADNI data, generalizes well to data from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) with an average NMAE of 1.182 and a multiclass AUC of 0.929.

Progression of regional grey matter atrophy in multiple sclerosis.

See Stankoff and Louapre (doi:10.1093/brain/awy114) for a scientific commentary on this article.Grey matter atrophy is present from the earliest stages of multiple sclerosis, but its temporal ordering is poorly understood. We aimed to determine the sequence in which grey matter regions become atrophic in multiple sclerosis and its association with disability accumulation. In this longitudinal study, we included 1417 subjects: 253 with clinically isolated syndrome, 708 with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, 128 with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis, 125 with primary-progressive multiple sclerosis, and 203 healthy control subjects from seven European centres. Subjects underwent repeated MRI (total number of scans 3604); the mean follow-up for patients was 2.41 years (standard deviation = 1.97). Disability was scored using the Expanded Disability Status Scale. We calculated the volume of brain grey matter regions and brainstem using an unbiased within-subject template and used an established data-driven event-based model to determine the sequence of occurrence of atrophy and its uncertainty. We assigned each subject to a specific event-based model stage, based on the number of their atrophic regions. Linear mixed-effects models were used to explore associations between the rate of increase in event-based model stages, and T2 lesion load, disease-modifying treatments, comorbidity, disease duration and disability accumulation. The first regions to become atrophic in patients with clinically isolated syndrome and relapse-onset multiple sclerosis were the posterior cingulate cortex and precuneus, followed by the middle cingulate cortex, brainstem and thalamus. A similar sequence of atrophy was detected in primary-progressive multiple sclerosis with the involvement of the thalamus, cuneus, precuneus, and pallidum, followed by the brainstem and posterior cingulate cortex. The cerebellum, caudate and putamen showed early atrophy in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and late atrophy in primary-progressive multiple sclerosis. Patients with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis showed the highest event-based model stage (the highest number of atrophic regions, P < 0.001) at the study entry. All multiple sclerosis phenotypes, but clinically isolated syndrome, showed a faster rate of increase in the event-based model stage than healthy controls. T2 lesion load and disease duration in all patients were associated with increased event-based model stage, but no effects of disease-modifying treatments and comorbidity on event-based model stage were observed. The annualized rate of event-based model stage was associated with the disability accumulation in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, independent of disease duration (P < 0.0001). The data-driven staging of atrophy progression in a large multiple sclerosis sample demonstrates that grey matter atrophy spreads to involve more regions over time. The sequence in which regions become atrophic is reasonably consistent across multiple sclerosis phenotypes. The spread of atrophy was associated with disease duration and with disability accumulation over time in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

Study protocol: Insight 46 - a neuroscience sub-study of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development.

BACKGROUND: Increasing age is the biggest risk factor for dementia, of which Alzheimer's disease is the commonest cause. The pathological changes underpinning Alzheimer's disease are thought to develop at least a decade prior to the onset of symptoms. Molecular positron emission tomography and multi-modal magnetic resonance imaging allow key pathological processes underpinning cognitive impairment - including ß-amyloid depostion, vascular disease, network breakdown and atrophy - to be assessed repeatedly and non-invasively. This enables potential determinants of dementia to be delineated earlier, and therefore opens a pre-symptomatic window where intervention may prevent the onset of cognitive symptoms. METHODS/DESIGN: This paper outlines the clinical, cognitive and imaging protocol of "Insight 46", a neuroscience sub-study of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. This is one of the oldest British birth cohort studies and has followed 5362 individuals since their birth in England, Scotland and Wales during one week in March 1946. These individuals have been tracked in 24 waves of data collection incorporating a wide range of health and functional measures, including repeat measures of cognitive function. Now aged 71 years, a small fraction have overt dementia, but estimates suggest that ~1/3 of individuals in this age group may be in the preclinical stages of Alzheimer's disease. Insight 46 is recruiting 500 study members selected at random from those who attended a clinical visit at 60-64 years and on whom relevant lifecourse data are available. We describe the sub-study design and protocol which involves a prospective two time-point (0, 24 month) data collection covering clinical, neuropsychological, ß-amyloid positron emission tomography and magnetic resonance imaging, biomarker and genetic information. Data collection started in 2015 (age 69) and aims to be completed in 2019 (age 73). DISCUSSION: Through the integration of data on the socioeconomic environment and on physical, psychological and cognitive function from 0 to 69 years, coupled with genetics, structural and molecular imaging, and intensive cognitive and neurological phenotyping, Insight 46 aims to identify lifetime factors which influence brain health and cognitive ageing, with particular focus on Alzheimer's disease and cerebrovascular disease. This will provide an evidence base for the rational design of disease-modifying trials.

Iterative framework for the joint segmentation and CT synthesis of MR images: application to MRI-only radiotherapy treatment planning.

To tackle the problem of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-only radiotherapy treatment planning (RTP), we propose a multi-atlas information propagation scheme that jointly segments organs and generates pseudo x-ray computed tomography (CT) data from structural MR images (T1-weighted and T2-weighted). As the performance of the method strongly depends on the quality of the atlas database composed of multiple sets of aligned MR, CT and segmented images, we also propose a robust way of registering atlas MR and CT images, which combines structure-guided registration, and CT and MR image synthesis. We first evaluated the proposed framework in terms of segmentation and CT synthesis accuracy on 15 subjects with prostate cancer. The segmentations obtained with the proposed method were compared using the Dice score coefficient (DSC) to the manual segmentations. Mean DSCs of 0.73, 0.90, 0.77 and 0.90 were obtained for the prostate, bladder, rectum and femur heads, respectively. The mean absolute error (MAE) and the mean error (ME) were computed between the reference CTs (non-rigidly aligned to the MRs) and the pseudo CTs generated with the proposed method. The MAE was on average [Formula: see text] HU and the ME [Formula: see text] HU. We then performed a dosimetric evaluation by re-calculating plans on the pseudo CTs and comparing them to the plans optimised on the reference CTs. We compared the cumulative dose volume histograms (DVH) obtained for the pseudo CTs to the DVH obtained for the reference CTs in the planning target volume (PTV) located in the prostate, and in the organs at risk at different DVH points. We obtained average differences of [Formula: see text] in the PTV for [Formula: see text], and between [Formula: see text] and 0.05% in the PTV, bladder, rectum and femur heads for D mean and [Formula: see text]. Overall, we demonstrate that the proposed framework is able to automatically generate accurate pseudo CT images and segmentations in the pelvic region, potentially bypassing the need for CT scan for accurate RTP.

Generalised Dice Overlap as a Deep Learning Loss Function for Highly Unbalanced Segmentations.

Deep-learning has proved in recent years to be a powerful tool for image analysis and is now widely used to segment both 2D and 3D medical images. Deep-learning segmentation frameworks rely not only on the choice of network architecture but also on the choice of loss function. When the segmentation process targets rare observations, a severe class imbalance is likely to occur between candidate labels, thus resulting in sub-optimal performance. In order to mitigate this issue, strategies such as the weighted cross-entropy function, the sensitivity function or the Dice loss function, have been proposed. In this work, we investigate the behavior of these loss functions and their sensitivity to learning rate tuning in the presence of different rates of label imbalance across 2D and 3D segmentation tasks. We also propose to use the class re-balancing properties of the Generalized Dice overlap, a known metric for segmentation assessment, as a robust and accurate deep-learning loss function for unbalanced tasks.

Neurofilament light chain: a biomarker for genetic frontotemporal dementia.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and serum neurofilament light chain (NfL) levels in genetic frontotemporal dementia (FTD) as a potential biomarker in the presymptomatic stage and during the conversion into the symptomatic stage. Additionally, to correlate NfL levels to clinical and neuroimaging parameters. METHODS: In this multicenter case-control study, we investigated CSF NfL in 174 subjects (48 controls, 40 presymptomatic carriers and 86 patients with microtubule-associated protein tau (MAPT), progranulin (GRN), and chromosome 9 open reading frame 72 (C9orf72) mutations), and serum NfL in 118 subjects (39 controls, 44 presymptomatic carriers, 35 patients). In 55 subjects both CSF and serum was determined. In two subjects CSF was available before and after symptom onset (converters). Additionally, NfL levels were correlated with clinical parameters, survival, and regional brain atrophy. RESULTS: CSF NfL levels in patients (median 6762 pg/mL, interquartile range 3186-9309 pg/mL) were strongly elevated compared with presymptomatic carriers (804 pg/mL, 627-1173 pg/mL, P < 0.001), resulting in a good diagnostic performance to discriminate both groups. Serum NfL correlated highly with CSF NfL (r s = 0.87, P < 0.001) and was similarly elevated in patients. Longitudinal samples in the converters showed a three- to fourfold increase in CSF NfL after disease onset. Additionally, NfL levels in patients correlated with disease severity, brain atrophy, annualized brain atrophy rate and survival. INTERPRETATION: NfL in both serum and CSF has the potential to serve as a biomarker for clinical disease onset and has a prognostic value in genetic FTD.

aMAP is a validated pipeline for registration and segmentation of high-resolution mouse brain data.

The validation of automated image registration and segmentation is crucial for accurate and reliable mapping of brain connectivity and function in three-dimensional (3D) data sets. While validation standards are necessarily high and routinely met in the clinical arena, they have to date been lacking for high-resolution microscopy data sets obtained from the rodent brain. Here we present a tool for optimized automated mouse atlas propagation (aMAP) based on clinical registration software (NiftyReg) for anatomical segmentation of high-resolution 3D fluorescence images of the adult mouse brain. We empirically evaluate aMAP as a method for registration and subsequent segmentation by validating it against the performance of expert human raters. This study therefore establishes a benchmark standard for mapping the molecular function and cellular connectivity of the rodent brain.

STEPS: Similarity and Truth Estimation for Propagated Segmentations and its application to hippocampal segmentation and brain parcelation.

Anatomical segmentation of structures of interest is critical to quantitative analysis in medical imaging. Several automated multi-atlas based segmentation propagation methods that utilise manual delineations from multiple templates appear promising. However, high levels of accuracy and reliability are needed for use in diagnosis or in clinical trials. We propose a new local ranking strategy for template selection based on the locally normalised cross correlation (LNCC) and an extension to the classical STAPLE algorithm by Warfield et al. (2004), which we refer to as STEPS for Similarity and Truth Estimation for Propagated Segmentations. It addresses the well-known problems of local vs. global image matching and the bias introduced in the performance estimation due to structure size. We assessed the method on hippocampal segmentation using a leave-one-out cross validation with optimised model parameters; STEPS achieved a mean Dice score of 0.925 when compared with manual segmentation. This was significantly better in terms of segmentation accuracy when compared to other state-of-the-art fusion techniques. Furthermore, due to the finer anatomical scale, STEPS also obtains more accurate segmentations even when using only a third of the templates, reducing the dependence on large template databases. Using a subset of Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) scans from different MRI imaging systems and protocols, STEPS yielded similarly accurate segmentations (Dice=0.903). A cross-sectional and longitudinal hippocampal volumetric study was performed on the ADNI database. Mean±SD hippocampal volume (mm(3)) was 5195 ± 656 for controls; 4786 ± 781 for MCI; and 4427 ± 903 for Alzheimer's disease patients and hippocampal atrophy rates (%/year) of 1.09 ± 3.0, 2.74 ± 3.5 and 4.04 ± 3.6 respectively. Statistically significant (p<10(-3)) differences were found between disease groups for both hippocampal volume and volume change rates. Finally, STEPS was also applied in a multi-label segmentation propagation scenario using a leave-one-out cross validation, in order to parcellate 83 separate structures of the brain. Comparisons of STEPS with state-of-the-art multi-label fusion algorithms showed statistically significant segmentation accuracy improvements (p<10(-4)) in several key structures.