Effect of diabetes on mortality and liver transplantation in alcoholic liver cirrhotic patients with acute decompensation.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have investigated the influence of diabetes on alcoholic liver cirrhosis patients, leaving its impact unclear. Thus, we conducted a study to reveal the association of diabetes and clinical outcomes of such patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We prospectively collected data from multicenter pertaining to 965 patients diagnosed with alcoholic liver cirrhosis, all of whom were admitted due to acute decompensation between 2015 and 2019. Risk of major precipitating factors and incidences of death or liver transplantation in patients with and without diabetes was comparatively assessed. Propensity score (PS) matching was performed at a 1:2 ratio for accurate comparisons. RESULTS: The mean age was 53.4 years, and 81.0% of the patients were male. Diabetes was prevalent in 23.6% of the cohort and was positively correlated with hepatic encephalopathy and upper gastrointestinal bleeding, although not statistically significant. During a median follow-up of 903.5 person-years (PYs), 64 patients with and 171 without diabetes died or underwent liver transplantation, with annual incidence of 33.6/100 PYs and 24.0/100 PYs, respectively. In the PS-matched cohort, the incidence of death or liver transplantation was 36.8/100 PYs and 18.6/100 PYs in the diabetes and matched control group, respectively. After adjusting for various factors, coexisting diabetes significantly heightened the risk of death or liver transplantation in the short and long term, in addition to prolonged prothrombin time, low serum albumin, elevated total bilirubin and creatinine, and decreased serum sodium levels. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes increases the risk of death or liver transplantation in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis.

Comparison of One-Person Technique and Two-Person Technique for Colonoscope Insertion: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Background: The one-person technique (OPT) for colonoscope insertion is recommended by professional societies and regarded as standard practice. However, the two-person technique (TPT) has shown several advantages over the OPT. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the TPT compared to the OPT. Methods: In this prospective study, consecutive individuals presenting for outpatient colonoscopy were randomized to undergo colonoscopy by OPT or by TPT. The colonoscopies were performed by six endoscopists, two of whom were beginners, two with intermediate skills, and two who were experts. The primary endpoints were quality indicators for colonoscopy, including adenoma detection rate, cecal intubation rate, cecal insertion time, and total colonoscopy time. A secondary outcome was procedure tolerability, as assessed by both the patients and the endoscopists. Results: Two hundred and four subjects (117 males, mean age 54.3) were randomized to either one- (n = 102) or two-person (n = 102) colonoscopy. The adenoma detection rate was 30.4% in OPT group and 34.3% in TPT group. (p = 0.55). No significant differences between the two groups were found in terms of cecal intubation rate (98/102 vs. 98/102), insertion time (411 vs. 381 s), and total examination time (1426 vs. 1296 s). However, patients receiving the TPT had lower pain scores than patients receiving the OPT. Endoscopist fatigue measured with the FACIT-F was also significantly lower in the TPT group. Conclusion: The two-person colonoscopy method was not shown to be technically or clinically inferior. Rather, the TPT can improve patient tolerance and reduce endoscopist fatigue.

Immune signature and therapeutic approach of natural killer cell in chronic liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma.

Natural killer (NK) cells are one of the key members of innate immunity that predominantly reside in the liver, potentiating immune responses against viral infections or malignant tumors. It has been reported that changes in cell numbers and function of NK cells are associated with the development and progression of chronic liver diseases (CLDs) including non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, alcoholic liver disease, and chronic viral hepatitis. Also, it is known that the crosstalk between NK cells and hepatic stellate cells plays an important role in liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. In particular, the impaired functions of NK cells observed in CLDs consequently contribute to occurrence and progression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Chronic infections by hepatitis B or C viruses counteract the anti-tumor immunity of the host by producing the sheddases. Soluble major histocompatibility complex class I polypeptide-related sequence A (sMICA), released from the cell surfaces by sheddases, disrupts the interaction and affects the function of NK cells. Recently, the MICA/B-NK stimulatory receptor NK group 2 member D (NKG2D) axis has been extensively studied in HCC. HCC patients with low membrane-bound MICA or high sMICA concentration have been associated with poor prognosis. Therefore, reversing the sMICA-mediated downregulation of NKG2D has been proposed as an attractive strategy to enhance both innate and adaptive immune responses against HCC. This review aims to summarize recent studies on NK cell immune signatures and its roles in CLD and hepatocellular carcinogenesis and discusses the therapeutic approaches of MICA/B-NKG2D-based or NK cell-based immunotherapy for HCC.

Validation of MELD 3.0 in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis using prospective KACLiF cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is a reliable prognostic tool for short-term outcome prediction in patients with end-stage liver disease. MELD 3.0 was introduced to enhance the predictive accuracy. This study assessed the performance of MELD 3.0, in comparison to MELD and MELD-Na, in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis. METHODS: This multicenter prospective cohort study comprised patients with alcoholic cirrhosis admitted for acute deterioration of liver function in the Republic of Korea between 2015 and 2019. This study compared the predictive abilities of MELD, MELD-Na, and MELD 3.0, for 30-day and 90-day outcomes, specifically death or liver transplantation, and explored the factors influencing these outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 1096 patients were included in the study, with a mean age of 53.3 ± 10.4 years, and 82.0% were male. The mean scores for MELD, MELD-Na, and MELD 3.0 at the time of admission were 18.7 ± 7.2, 20.6 ± 7.7, and 21.0 ± 7.8, respectively. At 30 and 90 days, 7.2% and 14.1% of patients experienced mortality or liver transplantation. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for MELD, MELD-Na, and MELD 3.0 at 30 days were 0.823, 0.820, and 0.828; and at 90 days were 0.765, 0.772, and 0.776, respectively. Factors associated with the 90-day outcome included concomitant chronic viral hepatitis, prolonged prothrombin time, elevated levels of aspartate transaminase, bilirubin, and creatinine, and low albumin levels. CONCLUSION: MELD 3.0 demonstrated improved performance compared to previous models, although the differences were not statistically significant.

Dynamic analysis of acute deterioration in chronic liver disease patients using modified quick sequential organ failure assessment.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) is believed to identify patients at risk of poor outcomes in those with suspected infection. We aimed to evaluate the ability of modified qSOFA (m-qSOFA) to identify high-risk patients among those with acutely deteriorated chronic liver disease (CLD), especially those with acute-onchronic liver failure (ACLF). METHODS: We used data from both the Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) and the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) cohorts. qSOFA was modified by replacing the Glasgow Coma Scale with hepatic encephalopathy, and an m-qSOFA ≥2 was considered high. RESULTS: Patients with high m-qSOFA had a significantly lower 1-month transplant-free survival (TFS) in both cohorts and higher organ failure development in KACLiF than those with low m-qSOFA (Ps<0.05). Subgroup analysis by ACLF showed that patients with high m-qSOFA had lower TFS than those with low m-qSOFA. m-qSOFA was an independent prognostic factor (hazard ratios, HR=2.604, 95% confidence interval, CI 1.353-5.013, P=0.004 in KACLiF and HR=1.904, 95% CI 1.484- 2.442, P<0.001 in AARC). The patients with low m-qSOFA at baseline but high m-qSOFA on day 7 had a significantly lower 1-month TFS than those with high m-qSOFA at baseline but low m-qSOFA on day 7 (52.6% vs. 89.4%, P<0.001 in KACLiF and 26.9% vs. 61.5%, P<0.001 in AARC). CONCLUSION: Baseline and dynamic changes in m-qSOFA may identify patients with a high risk of developing organ failure and short-term mortality among CLD patients with acute deterioration.

Effect of Probiotics in Stress-Associated Constipation Model in Zebrafish (Danio rerio) Larvae.

The pathophysiology of functional bowel disorders is complex, involving disruptions in gut motility, visceral hypersensitivity, gut-brain-microbiota interactions, and psychosocial factors. Light pollution, as an environmental stressor, has been associated with disruptions in circadian rhythms and the aggravation of stress-related conditions. In this study, we investigated the effects of environmental stress, particularly continuous light exposure, on intestinal motility and inflammation using zebrafish larvae as a model system. We also evaluated the efficacy of probiotics, specifically Bifidobacterium longum (B. longum), at alleviating stress-induced constipation. Our results showed that continuous light exposure in zebrafish larvae increased the cortisol levels and reduced the intestinal motility, establishing a stress-induced-constipation model. We observed increased inflammatory markers and decreased intestinal neural activity in response to stress. Furthermore, the expressions of aquaporins and vasoactive intestinal peptide, crucial for regulating water transport and intestinal motility, were altered in the light-induced constipation model. Administration of probiotics, specifically B. longum, ameliorated the stress-induced constipation by reducing the cortisol levels, modulating the intestinal inflammation, and restoring the intestinal motility and neural activity. These findings highlight the potential of probiotics to modulate the gut-brain axis and alleviate stress-induced constipation. Therefore, this study provides a valuable understanding of the complex interplay among environmental stressors, gut function, and potential therapeutic strategies.

Reduced Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Long-Term Besifovir Therapy.

No information is available regarding the influence of besifovir (BSV), a new nucleotide analogue, on the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study evaluated the reduced risk of HCC in patients undergoing BSV treatment. A total of 188 patients with CHB were treated with BSV for up to 8 years. We prospectively assessed the incidence of HCC compared with the risk from prediction models. During the follow-up, 5 patients developed HCC: 1 of 139 patients with non-cirrhotic CHB, and 4 of 49 patients with liver cirrhosis. We compared the HCC incidence in non-cirrhotic and cirrhotic patients with the predicted number derived from the REACH-B (risk estimation for HCC in CHB) model and GAG-HCC (guide with age, gender, HBV DNA, core promotor mutation, and cirrhosis) model, respectively. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was 0.128 (p = 0.039) at 7 years in non-cirrhotic CHB patients, and the SIR was 0.371 (p = 0.047) at 7.5 years in cirrhotic patients, suggesting a significantly decreased HCC incidence in both groups. HCC prediction was available for BSV-treated patients using existing models. In conclusion, BSV decreased the risk of HCC in patients with CHB, and prediction models were applicable. Clinical trial registry website and trial number: ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT01937806.

Noninferiority Outcomes of Besifovir Compared to Tenofovir Alafenamide in Treatment-Naïve Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

Background/Aims: : Besifovir dipivoxil maleate (BSV) and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF) have been recently approved in Korea as the initial antiviral agents for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). However, the real-world outcome data for these drugs remain limited. Therefore, we conducted a noninferiority analysis using real-world data to compare the clinical outcomes of the two nucleotide analogs in treatment-naïve patients with CHB. Methods: : We retrospectively investigated a cohort of patients with CHB who received BSV or TAF as first-line antiviral agents. The endpoints were virological response (VR) and liver-related clinical outcomes. Results: : A total of 537 patients, consisting of 202 and 335 patients administered BSV and TAF, respectively, were followed up for 42 months. No significant difference was observed between the VRs of the patients from the two groups. The rates of biochemical response, virologic breakthrough, and incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma did not differ between the groups. However, the hepatitis B e antigen seroclearance rate was higher and the renal function declined less in the BSV group. Multivariable analysis indicated older age, alcohol abuse, cirrhosis and ascites, and lower serum HBV DNA level to be independently associated with increased hepatocellular carcinoma risk. The 1:1 propensity score-matched analysis with 400 patients showed VR rates of 85.0% and 88.7% in the BSV and TAF group patients, respectively, at 2 years. The absolute value of the 95% confidence interval for the difference (-0.04 to 0.12) satisfied the a priori limit of a noninferiority of 0.15. Conclusions: : BSV is noninferior to TAF in terms of VR, and their clinical outcomes are comparable to CHB.

New prognostic model for hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and Maddrey's discriminant function <32.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Few studies have investigated the prognosis of patients with non-severe alcoholic hepatitis (Non-SAH). The study aimed to develop a new prognostic model for patients with especially Non-SAH. METHODS: We extracted 316 hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis without severe alcoholic hepatitis, defined as Maddrey's discriminant function score lower than 32, from the retrospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort to develop a new prognostic model (training set), and validated it in 419 patients from the prospective KACLiF cohort (validation set). Prognostic factors for death and liver transplantation were analyzed to construct a prognostic model. RESULTS: Twenty-one and 24 patients died within 6 months in both sets, respectively. In the training set, the highest area under the curve (AUC) of conventional prognostic models was 0.765, 0.732, and 0.684 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively. Refractory ascites, vasopressor use, and hyponatremia were independently associated with mortality of cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH. The new model consisted of four variables: past deterioration, neutrophil proportion > 70%, Na < 128 mmol/L, and vasopressor use. It showed the highest accuracy for short-term mortality in the training and validation sets (0.803 and 0.786; 0.797 and 0.776; and 0.789 and 0.721 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively). CONCLUSION: There is a group of patients with high risk among those classified as Non-SAH. The new model will help stratifying cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH more accurately in terms of prognosis. The patients with high Non-SAH score need to monitor closely and might be considered for preemptive liver transplantation. TRIAL REGESTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02650011.

Current status of ultrasonography in national cancer surveillance program for hepatocellular carcinoma in South Korea: a large-scale multicenter study.

Background/Aim: Abdominal ultrasonography (USG) is recommended as a surveillance test for high-risk groups for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to analyze the current status of the national cancer surveillance program for HCC in South Korea and investigate the effects of patient-, physician-, and machine-related factors on HCC detection sensitivity. Methods: This multicenter retrospective cohort study collected surveillance USG data from the high-risk group for HCC (liver cirrhosis or chronic hepatitis B or C >40 years of age) at eight South Korean tertiary hospitals in 2017. Results: In 2017, 45 experienced hepatologists or radiologists performed 8,512 USG examinations. The physicians had a mean 15.0±8.3 years of experience; more hepatologists (61.4%) than radiologists (38.6%) participated. Each USG scan took a mean 12.2±3.4 minutes. The HCC detection rate by surveillance USG was 0.3% (n=23). Over 27 months of follow-up, an additional 135 patients (0.7%) developed new HCC. The patients were classified into three groups based on timing of HCC diagnosis since the 1st surveillance USG, and no significant intergroup difference in HCC characteristics was noted. HCC detection was significantly associated with patient-related factors, such as old age and advanced fibrosis, but not with physician- or machine-related factors. Conclusions: This is the first study of the current status of USG as a surveillance method for HCC at tertiary hospitals in South Korea. It is necessary to develop quality indicators and quality assessment procedures for USG to improve the detection rate of HCC.

Response-Guided Therapy With Cefotaxime, Ceftriaxone, or Ciprofloxacin for Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis: A Randomized Trial: A Validation Study of 2021 AASLD Practice Guidance for SBP.

INTRODUCTION: For the treatment of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), cefotaxime, ceftriaxone, and ciprofloxacin were used as first-line agents. However, considering the increasing rate of antibiotic resistance, it is unclear which of these drugs can be initially recommended. This study aimed to compare the current efficacy of the 3 antibiotics, namely cefotaxime, ceftriaxone, and ciprofloxacin, for the treatment of SBP in patients with cirrhosis with ascites, when guided by therapeutic responses. METHODS: This study was a multicenter, prospective, randomized controlled trial. The inclusion criteria were 16- to 75-year-old patients with liver cirrhosis with ascites, having polymorphonuclear cell count of >250/mm 3 . We performed a follow-up paracentesis at 48 hours to decide continuing or changing the assigned antibiotics and then assessed the resolution rates at 120 and 168 hours of treatment. RESULTS: A total of 261 patients with cirrhosis who developed SBP were enrolled. Most of the patients were diagnosed as those with SBP within 48 hours of admission. The resolution rates at 120 hours, which is the primary endpoint, were 67.8%, 77.0%, and 73.6% in the cefotaxime, ceftriaxone, and ciprofloxacin groups, respectively ( P = 0.388), by intension-to-treat analysis. The 1-month mortality was similar among the groups ( P = 0.770). The model for end-stage liver disease score and the SBP resolution were significant factors for survival. CONCLUSION: The efficacy of empirical antibiotics, such as cefotaxime, ceftriaxone, and ciprofloxacin, against SBP was not significantly different. In addition, these antibiotics administered based on response-guided therapy were still efficacious as initial treatment for SBP, especially in those with community-acquired infections.

Diagnostic Efficacy of Serum Asialo α1-Acid Glycoprotein Levels for Advanced Liver Fibrosis and Cirrhosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Compared to That in Healthy Subjects: A Prospective Study.

Background: Serum asialo α1-acid gycoprotein (AsAGP) is a novel biomarker specific to liver fibrosis. Aim: To evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of serum AsAGP levels in classifying the severity of liver fibrosis and differentiating liver cirrhosis (LC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) from healthy controls. Methods: Overall, 206 subjects were prospectively enrolled. LC was diagnosed based on liver stiffness levels (>11 kPa) measured using transient elastography. Serum AsAGP levels were measured using an antibody-lectin sandwich immunoassay. We investigated the diagnostic performance by comparing serum AsAGP levels among healthy control, CHB, and CHB with LC groups. Sensitivity, specificity, and optimal AsAGP cut-off values were also calculated. Results: Serum AsAGP levels were significantly different between healthy controls, CHB patients, and CHB patients with LC (1.04 ± 0.31 µg/mL, 1.12 ± 0.34 µg/mL, 1.51 ± 0.43 µg/mL respectively; p < 0.001). Serum AsAGP levels positively correlated with liver stiffness (r = 0.46, p < 0.001). AUROC of healthy control versus CHB with LC was 0.821 (p < 0.001, optimal cut-off 1.036 µg/mL). AUROC of healthy control versus CHB was 0.624 (p = 0.049, optimal cut-off level 0.934 µg/mL). AUROC of CHB versus CHB with LC was 0.765, (p < 0.001, optimal cut-off 1.260 µg/mL). Conclusions: Serum AsAGP levels in CHB patients with LC were significantly higher than those in healthy controls and CHB patients. AsAGP levels showed good diagnostic performance in predicting advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis, which suggests a potential role as a biomarker for predicting the progression of liver disease in CHB.

The Effect of Necrosis Inhibitor on Dextran Sulfate Sodium Induced Chronic Colitis Model in Mice.

Uncontrolled chronic inflammation and necrosis is characteristic of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). This study aimed to investigate the effect of necrosis inhibitor (NI, NecroX-7) on a dextran sulfate sodium (DSS) induced chronic colitis model of mice. DSS was administered on days 1-5, and the NI was administered intraperitoneally (3 mg/kg, 30 mg/kg) on days 1, 3, and 5 as well as every other day during the first five days of a three-week cycle. Three cycles of administration were performed. Colitis was evaluated based on the disease activity index (DAI) score, colon length, and histological score. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction testing, the Western blot assay, and immunohistochemical staining were performed to determine inflammatory cytokine levels. The NI reduced body weight change and the DAI score. Colon length and the histological score were longer and lower in the NI-treated groups, respectively. The NI decreased the expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines, particularly in tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and phosphorylated nuclear factor kappa B (p-NF-κB). Immunohistochemical staining revealed decreased inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) and high mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) levels. Overall, the NI improved DSS induced chronic colitis by attenuating the mRNA expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as TNF-α. Therefore, NI use is a potential, novel treatment approach for IBD.

The clinical effect of antiviral therapy in patients with hepatitis B virus-related decompensated cirrhosis and undetectable DNA.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Antiviral therapy (AVT) is the mainstay of hepatitis B virus (HBV) management. We investigated whether AVT improves the outcomes of HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis and undetectable HBV-DNA. METHODS: Between 2000 and 2017, treatment-naïve patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis and undetectable HBV-DNA were recruited from two tertiary hospitals. The endpoints included death and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). RESULTS: A total of 429 patients were analyzed (50 and 379 patients in the AVT and non-AVT groups, respectively). Patients in the AVT group were significantly younger and had higher alanine aminotransferase and alpha-fetoprotein levels than those in the non-AVT group (all P < 0.05). During follow-up (median 49.6 months), 98 patients died and 105 developed HCC. The cumulative incidence rates of death (2.0%, 4.1%, and 6.4%, and 4.9%, 7.2%, and 10.2% at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years, respectively) and HCC (8.6%, 15.8%, and 26.4% vs 1.6%, 7.7%, and 24.4% at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively) were statistically comparable between the AVT and non-AVT groups (all P > 0.05). Using Cox regression analysis, AVT was not significantly associated with death nor HCC (all P > 0.05). Similar results were observed after balancing baseline characteristics with inverse probability of treatment weighting. In the non-AVT group, the cumulative incidence rates of HBV-DNA detection at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years were 2.0%, 3.1%, and 6.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Antiviral therapy did not attenuate the risk of death nor HCC in patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis and undetectable HBV-DNA.

The Clinical Courses and Prognosis of Cirrhotic Patients after First Acute Decompensation: Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The European Foundation for the Study of Chronic Liver Failure (EF-CLIF) consortium suggested that the clinical courses after acute decompensation (AD) stratify the long-term prognosis: stable decompensated cirrhosis (SDC), unstable decompensated cirrhosis (UDC), pre acute-on-chronic liver failure (pre ACLF), and ACLF. However, previous studies included patients with a history of previous AD and had limitations associated with identifying the clinical factors related to prognosis after the first AD. METHOD: The prospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort included cirrhotic patients who were hospitalised with first AD between July 2015 and August 2018. We analysed the factors associated with readmission after the first AD and compared the characteristics and prognosis among each subgroup to evaluate the risk factors for the occurrence of pre ACLF after AD. RESULT: A total of 746 cirrhotic patients who were hospitalised with first AD were enrolled. The subgroups consisted of SDC (n = 565), UDC (n = 29), pre ACLF (n = 28), and ACLF (n = 124). Of note, pre ACLF showed a poorer prognosis than ACLF. The risk factors associated with readmission within 3 months of first AD were non-variceal gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), and high MELD score. Viral aetiology was associated with the occurrence of pre ACLF compared with alcohol aetiology regardless of baseline liver function status. CONCLUSION: Cirrhotic patients with first AD who present as non-variceal GI bleeding and HE can easily relapse. Interestingly, the occurrence of AD with organ failure within 3 months of first AD (pre ACLF) has worse prognosis compared with the occurrence of organ failure at first AD (ACLF). In particular, cirrhotic patients with viral hepatitis with/without alcohol consumption showed poor prognosis compared to other aetiologies. Therefore, patients with ACLF after AD within 3 months should be treated more carefully and definitive treatment through LT should be considered.

Long-Term Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Antiviral Therapy: Based on Data from Korean Patients.

Predicting the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a key clinical issue in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). The aim of this study was to develop a precise and simple HCC risk score for up to 10 years. A total of 1895 CHB patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate were retrospectively recruited and randomized into derivation (n = 1239) and validation cohorts (n = 656). Variables proven to be independent risk factors for HCC in the derivation cohort were used to develop the prediction model. The ACCESS-HCC model included five variables (age, cirrhosis, consumption of ethanol, liver stiffness, and serum alanine aminotransferase). Areas under curves were 0.798, 0.762, and 0.883 for HCC risk at 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively, which were higher than those of other prediction models. The scores were categorized according to significantly different HCC incidences: 0-4, low; 5-8, intermediate; and 9-14, high-risk. The annual incidence rates were 0.5%, 3.2%, and 11.3%, respectively. The performance of this model was validated in an independent cohort. The ACCESS-HCC model shows improved long-term prediction and provides three distinct risk categories for HCC in CHB patients receiving antiviral therapy. Further research is needed for external validation using larger cohorts.

Impacts of muscle mass dynamics on prognosis of outpatients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Sarcopenia negatively affects the prognosis of cirrhotic patients, but clinical implications of changes in muscle mass remain unclear. We aimed to elucidate its role in the prognosis of outpatients with cirrhosis. METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis who underwent annual abdominal computed tomography (CT) for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance were included in the prospective cohort. The L3 skeletal muscle index (SMI) was adopted as a proxy for the amount of skeletal muscle, and the rate of SMI change between inclusion and after 1 year (ΔSMI/yr%) was calculated. RESULTS: In total, 595 patients underwent a second CT after 1 year. Among them, 109 and 64 patients had sarcopenia and Child-Pugh class B/C decompensation at inclusion, which changed to 103 and 45 at the 1-year follow-up, respectively. During a median follow-up of 30.1 months after 1 year, 86 patients had at least one cirrhosis complication, and 18 died or received liver transplantation. In the development of cirrhosis complications, ΔSMI/yr% was independently associated, even after adjusting for the Child-Pugh and model for end stage liver disease (MELD)-Na scores. In addition, ΔSMI/yr% showed a good predictive performance for the development of cirrhosis complications within 6 months after 1-year follow-up in all subgroups, with a cut-off of -2.62 (sensitivity, 83.9%; specificity, 74.5%) in the overall population. SMI at 1-year and Child-Pugh score were independent factors associated with survival. In addition, changes in sarcopenia status significantly stratified survival. CONCLUSION: ΔSMI/yr% was a good predictor of the development of cirrhosis complications in outpatients with cirrhosis, independent of Child-Pugh and MELD scores.