Modeling the impact of modified directly observed antiretroviral therapy on HIV suppression and resistance, disease progression, and death.

A simulation model that used Markov assumptions with Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis was evaluated 1500 times at 10,000 iterations. Modified directly observed therapy (MDOT) for human immunodeficiency virus was assumed to improve adherence to therapy to 90% of prescribed doses. The impact of MDOT interventions on modeled biological and clinical outcomes was compared for populations with mean rates of adherence (i.e., the mean percentage of prescribed doses taken by each member of the population who had not discontinued therapy) of 40%, 50%, 60%, and 70%. MDOT reduced the risk of virological failure, development of opportunistic infections, and death, yet increased the risk of drug resistance, for each adherence distribution among persons with detectable plasma virus loads. Over 1500 trials, for a population with 50% adherence to therapy and a 12-month period, MDOT increased the median rate of virological suppression from 13.2% to 37.0% of patients, decreased the rate of opportunistic infection from 5.7% to 4.3% of patients, and decreased the death rate from 2.9% to 2.2% of patients. In the same population, however, MDOT increased the rate of new drug resistance mutations from 1.00 to 1.41 per person during the 12-month period. The impact of MDOT was smaller in populations with higher levels of adherence. MDOT interventions will likely improve clinical outcomes in populations with low levels of adherence but may not be effective at preventing drug resistance in treatment-experienced populations. MDOT may be more effective in preventing drug resistance with potent regimens in treatment-naive patients.

Predictors and outcomes of outpatient mental health care: a 4-year prospective study of elderly Medicare patients with substance use disorders.

BACKGROUND: Many elderly inpatients have substance use disorders; recent treatment guidelines suggest that they should receive regular outpatient mental health care after discharge from hospital. OBJECTIVE: The prevalence, predictors, and outcomes of outpatient mental health care obtained by elderly Medicare patients with substance use disorders were examined. RESEARCH DESIGN: A longitudinal prospective follow-up was performed. SUBJECTS: Data from Medicare Provider Analysis and Review Record and Part B Medicare Annual Data were used to identify elderly inpatients with substance use disorders (n = 4,961) and determine their outpatient mental health care 4 years following hospital discharge. RESULTS: Only 12% to 17% of surviving elderly substance abuse patients received outpatient mental health care in each of 4 years after discharge. Cumulatively over 4 years, approximately 18% of surviving patients obtained diagnostic/evaluative mental health services, 22% obtained psychotherapy, and 9% received medication management. Of patients who obtained outpatient mental health care, 57% made 10 or fewer outpatient mental health visits over the entire 4 years. Younger, non-black, and female patients were more likely to obtain mental health outpatient care, as were patients with prior substance-related hospitalizations, dual diagnoses, and fewer medical conditions. Prompt outpatient mental health care was predictively associated with higher likelihood of mental health readmissions and, among patients with drug disorders, lower mortality. CONCLUSION: Very few elderly Medicare substance abuse patients obtain outpatient mental health care, perhaps because of health or economic barriers.

Elderly Medicare inpatients with substance use disorders: characteristics and predictors of hospital readmissions over a four-year interval.

OBJECTIVE: (1) To describe the characteristics and 4-year readmissions of elderly Medicare inpatients with substance use disorders; (2) to determine whether their readmissions are elevated relative to case controls'; and (3) to examine gender differences in characteristics and predictors of readmissions among elderly inpatients with substance use disorders. METHOD: Health Care Financing Administration Medicare Provider Analysis and Review data were used to identify elderly patients with substance use disorders and their case controls, and to determine patient characteristics and readmissions over a 4-year interval following hospital discharge. RESULTS: Of elderly inpatients with substance use disorders (N = 22,768), 37% were women, 11% were black, 22% had previous, substance-related hospitalizations, 14% had concomitant psychiatric disorders and 9% had accident-related diagnoses. Among surviving patients with substance use disorders (N = 12,417), 73% were rehospitalized, a higher rate than among case controls (69%). Women with substance use disorders were more likely to have a psychiatric or accident diagnosis at the index episode than were men with substance use disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Many women and a disproportionate number of blacks constitute elderly Medicare inpatients with substance use disorders. These patients often have prior substance-related hospitalizations, psychiatric comorbidities, and accidents involving poisoning, adverse drug reactions and falls. They make costly, relatively heavy use of inpatient health services. Elderly women with substance use disorders may benefit from treatment that focuses on their psychiatric disorders and accident risk. Diagnostic information available at discharge can be used to identify patients at higher risk for subsequent rehospitalization and to plan treatment accordingly.