The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter.

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.

Metabolic products of microorganisms. 200 Isolation and characterization of niphithricins A, B, and elaiophylin, antibiotics produced by Streptomyces violaceoniger.

Fermentations of Streptomyces violaceoniger TU 905 produce the antifungal antibiotics niphithricins A, B, elaiophylin and nigericin. The niphithricins have been characterized as new macrolide antibiotics, and the previously unknown structure of elaiophylin was determined to be a macrodiolide. The niphithricins were biologically active against Gram-positive bacteria and fungi. The mode of action is attributed to an alteration of the membrane permeability.