An exploratory GIS-based method to identify and characterise landscapes with an elevated epidemiological risk of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis.

BACKGROUND: Specific land cover types and activities have been correlated with Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense distributions, indicating the importance of landscape for epidemiological risk. However, methods proposed to identify specific areas with elevated epidemiological risk (i.e. where transmission is more likely to occur) tend to be costly and time consuming. This paper proposes an exploratory spatial analysis using geo-referenced human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) cases and matched controls from Serere hospital, Uganda (December 1998 to November 2002) to identify areas with an elevated epidemiological risk of HAT. METHODS: Buffers 3 km from each case and control were used to represent areas in which village inhabitants would carry out their daily activities. It was hypothesised that the selection of areas where several case village buffers overlapped would enable the identification of locations with increased risk of HAT transmission, as these areas were more likely to be frequented by HAT cases in several surrounding villages. The landscape within these overlap areas should more closely relate to the environment in which transmission occurs as opposed to using the full buffer areas. The analysis was carried out for each of four annual periods, for both cases and controls, using a series of threshold values (number of overlapping buffers), including a threshold of one, which represented the benchmark (e.g. use of the full buffer area as opposed to the overlap areas). RESULTS: A greater proportion of the overlap areas for cases consisted of seasonally flooding grassland and lake fringe swamp, than the control overlap areas, correlating well with the preferred habitat of the predominant tsetse species within the study area (Glossina fuscipes fuscipes). The use of overlap areas also resulted in a greater difference between case and control landscapes, when compared with the benchmark (using the full buffer area). CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that the overlap analysis has enabled the selection of areas more likely to represent epidemiological risk zones than similar analyses using full buffer areas. The identification of potential epidemiological risk zones using this method requires fewer data than other proposed methods and further development may provide vital information for the targeting of control measures.

LAMP for human African trypanosomiasis: a comparative study of detection formats.

Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) is at the forefront of the search for innovative diagnostics for human African trypanosomiasis (HAT). Several simple endpoint detection methods have been developed for LAMP and here we compare four of these: (i) visualization of turbidity; (ii) addition of hydroxynaphthol blue before incubation; (iii) addition of calcein with MnCl2 before incubation and (iv) addition of Quant-iT PicoGreen after incubation. These four methods were applied to four LAMP assays for the detection of human African trypanosomiasis, including two Trypanozoon specific and two Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense specific reactions using DNA extracted from cryo-preserved procyclic form T. b. rhodesiense. A multi-observer study was performed to assess inter-observer reliability of two of these methods: hydroxynapthol blue and calcein with MnCl2, using DNA prepared from blood samples stored on Whatman FTA cards. Results showed that hydroxynaphthol blue was the best of the compared methods for easy, inexpensive, accurate and reliable interpretation of LAMP assays for HAT. Hydroxynapthol blue generates a violet to sky blue colour change that was easy to see and was consistently interpreted by independent observers. Visible turbidity detection is not possible for all currently available HAT LAMP reactions; Quant-iT PicoGreen is expensive and addition of calcein with MnCl2 adversely affects reaction sensitivity and was unpopular with several observers.

Bayesian geostatistical analysis and prediction of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis.

BACKGROUND: The persistent spread of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) in Uganda in recent years has increased concerns of a potential overlap with the Gambian form of the disease. Recent research has aimed to increase the evidence base for targeting control measures by focusing on the environmental and climatic factors that control the spatial distribution of the disease. OBJECTIVES: One recent study used simple logistic regression methods to explore the relationship between prevalence of Rhodesian HAT and several social, environmental and climatic variables in two of the most recently affected districts of Uganda, and suggested the disease had spread into the study area due to the movement of infected, untreated livestock. Here we extend this study to account for spatial autocorrelation, incorporate uncertainty in input data and model parameters and undertake predictive mapping for risk of high HAT prevalence in future. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using a spatial analysis in which a generalised linear geostatistical model is used in a Bayesian framework to account explicitly for spatial autocorrelation and incorporate uncertainty in input data and model parameters we are able to demonstrate a more rigorous analytical approach, potentially resulting in more accurate parameter and significance estimates and increased predictive accuracy, thereby allowing an assessment of the validity of the livestock movement hypothesis given more robust parameter estimation and appropriate assessment of covariate effects. RESULTS: Analysis strongly supports the theory that Rhodesian HAT was imported to the study area via the movement of untreated, infected livestock from endemic areas. The confounding effect of health care accessibility on the spatial distribution of Rhodesian HAT and the linkages between the disease's distribution and minimum land surface temperature have also been confirmed via the application of these methods. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive mapping indicates an increased risk of high HAT prevalence in the future in areas surrounding livestock markets, demonstrating the importance of livestock trading for continuing disease spread. Adherence to government policy to treat livestock at the point of sale is essential to prevent the spread of sleeping sickness in Uganda.

Spatial predictions of Rhodesian Human African Trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) prevalence in Kaberamaido and Dokolo, two newly affected districts of Uganda.

The continued northwards spread of Rhodesian sleeping sickness or Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) within Uganda is raising concerns of overlap with the Gambian form of the disease. Disease convergence would result in compromised diagnosis and treatment for HAT. Spatial determinants for HAT are poorly understood across small areas. This study examines the relationships between Rhodesian HAT and several environmental, climatic and social factors in two newly affected districts, Kaberamaido and Dokolo. A one-step logistic regression analysis of HAT prevalence and a two-step logistic regression method permitted separate analysis of both HAT occurrence and HAT prevalence. Both the occurrence and prevalence of HAT were negatively correlated with distance to the closest livestock market in all models. The significance of distance to the closest livestock market strongly indicates that HAT may have been introduced to this previously unaffected area via the movement of infected, untreated livestock from endemic areas. This illustrates the importance of the animal reservoir in disease transmission, and highlights the need for trypanosomiasis control in livestock and the stringent implementation of regulations requiring the treatment of cattle prior to sale at livestock markets to prevent any further spread of Rhodesian HAT within Uganda.

Neglected tropical diseases in Uganda: the prospect and challenge of integrated control.

So-called 'neglected tropical diseases' (NTDs) are becoming less neglected, with increasing political and financial commitments to their control. These recent developments were preceded by substantial advocacy for integrated control of different NTDs, on the premise that integration is both feasible and cost-effective. Although the approach is intuitively attractive, there are few countrywide experiences to confirm or refute this assertion. Using the example of Uganda, this article reviews the geographical and epidemiological bases for integration and assesses the potential opportunities for, and operational challenges of, integrating existing control activities for several of these diseases under an umbrella vertical programme.