The accuracy of clinician predictions of survival in the Prognosis in Palliative care Study II (PiPS2): A prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic information is important for patients with cancer, their families, and clinicians. In practice, survival predictions are made by clinicians based on their experience, judgement, and intuition. Previous studies have reported that clinicians' survival predictions are often inaccurate. This study reports a secondary analysis of data from the Prognosis in Palliative care Study II (PiPS2) to assess the accuracy of survival estimates made by doctors and nurses. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Adult patients (n = 1833) with incurable, locally advanced or metastatic cancer, recently referred to palliative care services (community teams, hospital teams, and inpatient palliative care units) were recruited. Doctors (n = 431) and nurses (n = 777) provided independent prognostic predictions and an agreed multi-professional prediction for each patient. Clinicians provided prognostic estimates in several formats including predictions about length of survival and probability of surviving to certain time points. There was a minimum follow up of three months or until death (whichever was sooner; maximum follow-up 783 days). Agreed multi-professional predictions about whether patients would survive for days, weeks or months+ were accurate on 61.9% of occasions. The positive predictive value of clinicians' predictions about imminent death (within one week) was 77% for doctors and 79% for nurses. The sensitivity of these predictions was low (37% and 35% respectively). Specific predictions about how many weeks patients would survive were not very accurate but showed good discrimination (patients estimated to survive for shorted periods had worse outcomes). The accuracy of clinicians' probabilistic predictions (assessed using Brier's scores) was consistently better than chance, improved with proximity to death and showed good discrimination between groups of patients with different survival outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Using a variety of different approaches, this study found that clinicians predictions of survival show good discrimination and accuracy, regardless of whether the predictions are about how long or how likely patients are to survive. Accuracy improves with proximity to death. Although the positive predictive value of estimates of imminent death are relatively high, the sensitivity of such predictions is relatively low. Despite limitations, the clinical prediction of survival should remain the benchmark against which any innovations in prognostication are judged. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN13688211. http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN13688211.

Study recruitment factors in advanced cancer: the Prognosis in Palliative care Study II (PiPS2) - a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort project.

OBJECTIVES: The Prognosis in Palliative care Study II (PiPS2) was a large multicentre observational study validating prognostic tools in patients with advanced cancer. Many palliative care studies fail to reach their recruitment target. To inform future studies, PiPS2 rigorously monitored and identified any potential recruitment barriers. METHODS: Key recruitment stages (ie, whether patients were eligible for the study, approached by the researchers and whether consent was obtained for enrolment) were monitored via comprehensive screening logs at participating sites (inpatient hospices, hospitals and community palliative care teams). The reasons for patients' ineligibility, inaccessibility or decision not to consent were documented. RESULTS: 17 014 patients were screened across 27 participating sites over a 20-month recruitment period. Of those, 4642 (27%) were ineligible for participation in the study primarily due to non-cancer diagnoses. Of 12 372 eligible patients, 9073 (73%) were not approached, the most common reason being a clinical decision not to do so. Other reasons included patients' death or discharge before they were approached by the researchers. Of the 3299 approached patients, 1458 (44%) declined participation mainly because of feeling too unwell, experiencing severe distress or having other competing priorities. 11% (n=1841/17 014) of patients screened were enrolled in the study, representing 15% (n=1841/12 372) of eligible patients. Different recruitment patterns were observed across inpatient hospice, hospital and community palliative care teams. CONCLUSIONS: The main barrier to recruitment was 'accessing' potentially eligible patients. Monitoring key recruitment stages may help to identify barriers and facilitators to enrolment and allow results to be put into better context. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN13688211.

Prognostic models of survival in patients with advanced incurable cancer: the PiPS2 observational study.

BACKGROUND: The Prognosis in Palliative care Study (PiPS) prognostic survival models predict survival in patients with incurable cancer. PiPS-A (Prognosis in Palliative care Study - All), which involved clinical observations only, and PiPS-B (Prognosis in Palliative care Study - Blood), which additionally required blood test results, consist of 14- and 56-day models that combine to create survival risk categories: 'days', 'weeks' and 'months+'. OBJECTIVES: The primary objectives were to compare PIPS-B risk categories against agreed multiprofessional estimates of survival and to validate PiPS-A and PiPS-B. The secondary objectives were to validate other prognostic models, to assess the acceptability of the models to patients, carers and health-care professionals and to identify barriers to and facilitators of clinical use. DESIGN: This was a national, multicentre, prospective, observational, cohort study with a nested qualitative substudy using interviews with patients, carers and health-care professionals. SETTING: Community, hospital and hospice palliative care services across England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: For the validation study, the participants were adults with incurable cancer, with or without capacity to consent, who had been recently referred to palliative care services and had sufficient English language. For the qualitative substudy, a subset of participants in the validation study took part, along with informal carers, patients who declined to participate in the main study and health-care professionals. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: For the validation study, the primary outcomes were survival, clinical prediction of survival and PiPS-B risk category predictions. The secondary outcomes were predictions of PiPS-A and other prognostic models. For the qualitative substudy, the main outcomes were participants' views about prognostication and the use of prognostic models. RESULTS: For the validation study, 1833 participants were recruited. PiPS-B risk categories were as accurate as agreed multiprofessional estimates of survival (61%; p = 0.851). Discrimination of the PiPS-B 14-day model (c-statistic 0.837, 95% confidence interval 0.810 to 0.863) and the PiPS-B 56-day model (c-statistic 0.810, 95% confidence interval 0.788 to 0.832) was excellent. The PiPS-B 14-day model showed some overfitting (calibration in the large -0.202, 95% confidence interval -0.364 to -0.039; calibration slope 0.840, 95% confidence interval 0.730 to 0.950). The PiPS-B 56-day model was well-calibrated (calibration in the large 0.152, 95% confidence interval 0.030 to 0.273; calibration slope 0.914, 95% confidence interval 0.808 to 1.02). PiPS-A risk categories were less accurate than agreed multiprofessional estimates of survival (p < 0.001). The PiPS-A 14-day model (c-statistic 0.825, 95% confidence interval 0.803 to 0.848; calibration in the large -0.037, 95% confidence interval -0.168 to 0.095; calibration slope 0.981, 95% confidence interval 0.872 to 1.09) and the PiPS-A 56-day model (c-statistic 0.776, 95% confidence interval 0.755 to 0.797; calibration in the large 0.109, 95% confidence interval 0.002 to 0.215; calibration slope 0.946, 95% confidence interval 0.842 to 1.05) had excellent or reasonably good discrimination and calibration. Other prognostic models were also validated. Where comparisons were possible, the other prognostic models performed less well than PiPS-B. For the qualitative substudy, 32 health-care professionals, 29 patients and 20 carers were interviewed. The majority of patients and carers expressed a desire for prognostic information and said that PiPS could be helpful. Health-care professionals said that PiPS was user friendly and may be helpful for decision-making and care-planning. The need for a blood test for PiPS-B was considered a limitation. LIMITATIONS: The results may not be generalisable to other populations. CONCLUSIONS: PiPS-B risk categories are as accurate as agreed multiprofessional estimates of survival. PiPS-A categories are less accurate. Patients, carers and health-care professionals regard PiPS as potentially helpful in clinical practice. FUTURE WORK: A study to evaluate the impact of introducing PiPS into routine clinical practice is needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13688211. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 28. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

A prognosis is a prediction about how long someone will live after a diagnosis of illness. The Prognosis in Palliative care Study (PiPS) tools [PiPS-A (Prognosis in Palliative care Study ­ All) and PiPS-B (Prognosis in Palliative care Study ­ Blood), respectively] were designed to predict survival in patients with incurable cancer. Previously, they were found to be as accurate as health-care professionals. The purpose of this study was to find out whether PiPS was more accurate at prognosticating than health-care professionals, to evaluate other prognostic tools and to ask patients, their carers and health-care professionals what they thought about using them. We studied 1833 patients with advanced cancer and calculated their PiPS score and other prognostic scores. We asked health-care professionals to estimate how long the patients would live. We then followed up the patients to find out how long they actually lived and if the predictions made by health-care professionals were as accurate as the predictions made by the prognostic tools. We interviewed patients, their carers and health-care professionals to ask them what they thought about using these prognostic tools. We found that PiPS-B was as accurate as the combined wisdom of a doctor and a nurse at predicting whether patients would live for 'days', 'weeks' or 'months+'. We found that PiPS-A predictions were not as accurate as predictions made by health-care professionals. We found that (where direct comparisons could be made) PiPS-B was better than other prognostic tools. Finally, we found that patients, carers and health-care professionals thought that PiPS tools could be helpful in clinical practice because they would be less subjective than clinicians' intuition. This means that PiPS-B could be considered as a tool to support clinician predictions of survival and may lead to patients and families being able to take more control at the end of their lives. Further research will be required to investigate whether or not this approach actually leads to improvements in care.

The effect of training intensity on implicit learning rates in schizophrenia.

Cognitive impairments in learning and memory are core symptoms of schizophrenia, associated with reduced self-reported quality of life. The most effective treatment of cognitive impairments is drill and practice cognitive training. Still, to date no study has investigated the effect of varying the frequency of training on cognitive outcomes. Here we utilized a verbal memory based language learning task, tapping into implicit cognitive processes, to investigate the role of training intensity on learning rates in individuals with schizophrenia. Data from 47 participants across two studies was utilized, one with a daily training regimen over 5 days and the other with a more intensive schedule of 5 sessions delivered over 2 days. The primary outcome measure was the change in implicit learning performance across five sessions, quantified with the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC). Participants in the daily training group showed improved performance compared to the intensive group only at session 4. This is the first study to show that implicit learning rates are influenced by training intensity, with daily sessions outperforming a more intensive regimen; a period of consolidation overnight may be necessary to optimize cognitive training for individuals with schizophrenia.

Barriers to recruitment when conducting a commissioned randomised controlled trial of medication versus psychological therapy for generalised anxiety disorder: some lessons learned.

BACKGROUND: Poor recruitment is the most common reason for premature discontinuation of randomised controlled trials (RCTs). An RCT of medication versus psychological therapy for generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) was discontinued prematurely by the UK National Institute of Health Research funders because of recruitment failure. In order to inform future research studies, this article explores the reasons for poor recruitment and aspects which could have been improved. METHODS: The trial recruited participants via psychological well-being practitioners (PWPs) employed within local Improving Assess to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services at four sites in England. For this study, we initially examined the recruitment data to identify reasons why potential participants were reluctant to participate in the trial. We then investigated reasons the PWPs did not identify more potential participants. Finally, we performed retrospective analyses of a computerised clinical records system used by the IAPT services in this study. These analyses aimed to establish the number of potential participants who had not been approached about the trial as well as whether there were additional factors affecting the numbers of people who might be eligible to take part. Data were obtained for all patients assessed during the period from the date on which recruitment commenced until the closure of the trial. RESULTS: Three quarters of those patients identified as possibly suitable for the trial declined to take part; the great majority did so because they did not want to be randomly assigned to receive medication. Our retrospective database analyses showed that only around 12% of potentially eligible patients for the trial were identified by the PWPs at the pilot sites. The results also indicated that only 5% of those noted at entry to the IAPT services to have a score of at least 10 on the GAD-7 questionnaire (a self-completed questionnaire with high sensitivity and specificity for GAD) would have been eligible for the trial. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that poor recruitment to RCTs can be significantly affected by participants' treatment preferences and by factors influencing the recruiting clinicians. It may also be important not to include too many restrictions on inclusion criteria for pragmatic trials aiming for generalisable results. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISCRTN14845583 . Registration date: 5 February 2015.

Correction to: The prognosis in palliative care study II (PiPS2): study protocol for a multi-centre, prospective, observational, cohort study.

After publication, the authors noticed some minor errors in "Nested qualitative sub-study" section, first paragraph of the section, page 7 of the published article.

The Prognosis in Palliative care Study II (PiPS2): study protocol for a multi-centre, prospective, observational, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: More accurate methods of prognostication are likely to lead to improvements in the quality of care of patients approaching the ends of their lives. The Prognosis in Palliative care Scales (PiPS) are prognostic models of survival. The scores are calculated using simple clinical data and observations. There are two separate PiPS models; PiPS-A for patients without blood test results and PiPS-B for patients with blood test results. Both models predict whether a patient is likely to live for "days", "weeks" or "months" and have been shown to perform as well as clinicians' estimates of survival. PiPS-B has also been found to be significantly better than doctors' estimates of survival. We report here a protocol for the validation of PiPS and for the evaluation of the accuracy of other prognostic tools in a new, larger cohort of patients with advanced cancer. METHODS: This is a national, multi-centre, prospective, observational cohort study, aiming to recruit 1778 patients via palliative care services across England and Wales. Eligible patients have advanced, incurable cancer and have recently been referred to palliative care services. Patients with or without capacity are included in the study. The primary outcome is the accuracy of PiPS predictions and the difference in accuracy between these predictions and the clinicians' estimates of survival; with PiPS-B being the main model of interest. The secondary outcomes include the accuracy of predictions by the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI), Palliative Performance Scale (PPS), Palliative Prognostic score (PaP) and the Feliu Prognostic Nomogram (FPN) compared with actual patient survival and clinicians' estimates of survival. A nested qualitative sub-study using face-to-face interviews with patients, carers and clinicians is also being undertaken to assess the acceptability of the prognostic models and to identify barriers and facilitators to clinical use. DISCUSSION: The study closed to recruitment at the end of April 2018 having exceeded the required sample size of 1778 patients. The qualitative sub-study is nearing completion. This demonstrates the feasibility of recruiting large numbers of participants to a prospective palliative care study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN13688211 (registration date: 28/06/2016).

Modafinil combined with cognitive training: pharmacological augmentation of cognitive training in schizophrenia.

Several efforts to develop pharmacological treatments with a beneficial effect on cognition in schizophrenia are underway, while cognitive remediation has shown modest effects on cognitive performance. Our goal was to test if pharmacological augmentation of cognitive training would result in enhancement of training-induced learning. We chose modafinil as the pharmacological augmenting agent, as it is known to have beneficial effects on learning and cognition. 49 participants with chronic schizophrenia were enroled in a double-blind, placebo-controlled study across two sites and were randomised to either modafinil (200mg/day) or placebo. All participants engaged in a cognitive training program for 10 consecutive weekdays. The primary outcome measure was the performance on the trained tasks and secondary outcome measures included MATRICS cognitive battery, proxy measures of everyday functioning and symptom measures. 84% of the participants completed all study visits. Both groups showed significant improvement in the performance of the trained tasks suggesting potential for further learning. Modafinil did not induce differential enhancement on the performance of the trained tasks or any differential enhancement of the neuropsychological and functional measures compared to placebo. Modafinil showed no significant effects on symptom severity. Our study demonstrated that combining pharmacological compounds with cognitive training is acceptable to patients and can be implemented in large double-blind randomised controlled trials. The lack of differential enhancement of training-induced learning raises questions, such as choice and optimal dose of drug, cognitive domains to be trained, type of cognitive training, intervention duration and chronicity of illness that require systematic investigation in future studies.

Functional neuroanatomy of executive function after neonatal brain injury in adults who were born very preterm.

Individuals who were born very preterm (VPT; <33 gestational weeks) are at risk of experiencing deficits in tasks involving executive function in childhood and beyond. In addition, the type and severity of neonatal brain injury associated with very preterm birth may exert differential effects on executive functioning by altering its neuroanatomical substrates. Here we addressed this question by investigating with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) the haemodynamic response during executive-type processing using a phonological verbal fluency and a working memory task in VPT-born young adults who had experienced differing degrees of neonatal brain injury. 12 VPT individuals with a history of periventricular haemorrhage and ventricular dilatation (PVH+VD), 17 VPT individuals with a history of uncomplicated periventricular haemorrhage (UPVH), 13 VPT individuals with no history of neonatal brain injury and 17 controls received an MRI scan whilst completing a verbal fluency task with two cognitive loads ('easy' and 'hard' letters). Two groups of VPT individuals (PVH+VD; n = 10, UPVH; n = 8) performed an n-back task with three cognitive loads (1-, 2-, 3-back). Results demonstrated that VPT individuals displayed hyperactivation in frontal, temporal, and parietal cortices and in caudate nucleus, insula and thalamus compared to controls, as demands of the verbal fluency task increased, regardless of type of neonatal brain injury. On the other hand, during the n-back task and as working memory load increased, the PVH+VD group showed less engagement of the frontal cortex than the UPVH group. In conclusion, this study suggests that the functional neuroanatomy of different executive-type processes is altered following VPT birth and that neural activation associated with specific aspects of executive function (i.e., working memory) may be particularly sensitive to the extent of neonatal brain injury.

Neural compensation in adulthood following very preterm birth demonstrated during a visual paired associates learning task.

Very preterm birth (VPT; < 33 weeks of gestation) is associated with an increased risk of learning disability, which contributes to more VPT-born children repeating grades and underachieving in school. Learning problems associated with VPT birth may be caused by pathophysiological alterations in neurodevelopment resulting from perinatal brain insult; however, adaptive neuroplastic processes may subsequently occur in the developing preterm brain which ameliorate, to an extent, the potential sequelae of altered neurophysiology. Here, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to compare neuronal activation in 24 VPT individuals and 22 controls (CT) in young adulthood during a learning task consisting of the encoding and subsequent recognition of repeated visual paired associates. Structural MRI data were also collected and analysed in order to explore possible structure-function associations. Whilst the two groups did not differ in their learning ability, as demonstrated by their capacity to recognize previously-seen and previously-unseen visual pairs, between-group differences in linear patterns of Blood Oxygenation Level Dependant (BOLD) activity were observed across the four repeated blocks of the task for both the encoding and recognition conditions, suggesting that the way learning takes place differs between the two groups. During encoding, significant between-group differences in patterns of BOLD activity were seen in clusters centred on the cerebellum, the anterior cingulate gyrus, the midbrain/substantia nigra, medial temporal (including parahippocampal) gyrus and inferior and superior frontal gyri. During the recognition condition, significant between-group differences in patterns of BOLD activity were seen in clusters centred on the claustrum and the posterior cerebellum. Structural analysis revealed smaller grey matter volume in right middle temporal gyrus in VPT individuals compared to controls, however volume in this region was not significantly associated with functional activation. These results demonstrate that although cognitive task performance between VPT individuals and controls may be comparable on certain measures, differences in BOLD signal may also be evident, some of which could represent compensatory neural processes following VPT-related brain insult.

Neonatal brain injury and neuroanatomy of memory processing following very preterm birth in adulthood: an fMRI study.

Altered functional neuroanatomy of high-order cognitive processing has been described in very preterm individuals (born before 33 weeks of gestation; VPT) compared to controls in childhood and adolescence. However, VPT birth may be accompanied by different types of adverse neonatal events and associated brain injury, the severity of which may have differential effects on brain development and subsequent neurodevelopmental outcome. We conducted a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study to investigate how differing degrees of neonatal brain injury, detected by neonatal ultrasounds, affect the functional neuroanatomy of memory processing in VPT young adults. We used a verbal paired associates learning task, consisting of four encoding, four cued-recall and four baseline condition blocks. To further investigate whether differences in neural activation between the groups were modulated by structural brain changes, structural MRI data were also collected. We studied 12 VPT young adults with a history of periventricular haemorrhage with associated ventricular dilatation, 17 VPT individuals with a history of uncomplicated periventricular haemorrhage, 12 individuals with normal ultrasonographic findings, and 17 controls. Results of a linear trend analysis demonstrated that during completion of the paired associates learning task right frontal and right parietal brain activation decreased as the severity of neonatal brain injury increased. There were no statistically significant between-group differences in on-line task performance and participants' intelligence quotient (IQ) at assessment. This pattern of differential activation across the groups was observed particularly in the right middle frontal gyrus during encoding and in the right posterior cingulate gyrus during recall. Structural MRI data analysis revealed that grey matter volume in the right superior temporal gyrus, right cerebellum, left middle temporal gyrus, right globus pallidus and right medial frontal gyrus decreased with increasing severity of neonatal brain injury. However, the significant between-group functional neuroanatomical differences were not directly attributable to the detected structural regional differences.

Cerebellar growth and behavioural & neuropsychological outcome in preterm adolescents.

Adolescence is a time of social and cognitive development associated with changes in brain structure and function. These developmental changes may show an altered path in individuals born before 33 weeks' gestation (very preterm; VPT). The cerebellum is affected by VPT birth, but no studies have yet assessed the adolescent development of this structure, or whether developmental changes in cerebellar structure are associated with cognitive and behavioural outcome. We measured cerebellar volumes on structural magnetic resonance images in 65 adolescents who were born before 33 weeks' gestation (VPT) and 34 term-born adolescents (mean age VPT = 15.09, SD = 1.43/mean age term-born = 15.43, SD = 0.56) and again in adulthood (mean age VPT = 18.61, SD = 1.02/mean age term-born = 19.17, SD = 0.95). Participants also underwent neuropsychological tests; the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence and the Controlled Oral Word Association Test and completed the General Health Questionnaire-12. Repeated measures ANOVA showed a main effect of time-point (F = 4.59, df = 1, P = 0.035) and a time-point by group interaction (F = 8.03, df = 1, P = 0.006) on cerebellar growth. By adulthood, cerebellar volumes were 3.11% smaller in the preterm group than they had been in early adolescence (P = 0.000). Cerebellar volume did not change significantly in the control group (P = 0.612). There were significant negative correlations between change in cerebellar volume and GHQ-12 in the VPT group; total score (r = -0.324 P = 0.028) and several subscales; concentration (r = -0.378 P = 0.010), feeling useful (r = -0.311 P = 0.035), decision-making capability (r = -0.348 P = 0.018), overcoming difficulties (r = -0.331 P = 0.025), feeling confident (r = -0.309 P = 0.037) and feeling worthless (r = -0.329 P = 0.026). In the VPT group there were positive correlations between cerebellar volume and full-scale IQ (adolescence; r = 0.471, P = 0.002/adulthood; r = 0.309, P = 0.047), performance IQ (adolescence; r = 0.434, P = 0.004/adulthood; r = 0.345, P = 0.025) and verbal IQ (adolescence; r = 0.401, P = 0.008) which were not maintained after controlling for white matter volume. We have demonstrated a reduction in cerebellar volume between adolescence and young adulthood in VPT individuals, which is correlated with reduced self-reported wellbeing.

Growth of the corpus callosum in adolescents born preterm.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the growth of the corpus callosum between adolescence and early adulthood in individuals who were born before 33 weeks' gestation (very preterm [VPT]) and its relation to neuropsychological function. DESIGN: A longitudinal cohort study of VPT individuals born between January 4, 1982, and December 29, 1984, and a term-born comparison group. SETTING: A long-term follow-up study into perinatal predictors of outcome after preterm birth at University College Hospital, London. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 72 VPT and 34 term-born individuals were assessed in adolescence (aged 15 years) and in early adulthood (aged 19 years). Adult assessments took place between June 6, 2002, and October 23, 2004. MAIN EXPOSURE: Birth before 33 weeks' gestation. OUTCOME MEASURE: The cross-sectional area of 4 segments of the corpus callosum, measured on the midsagittal slice of high-resolution structural magnetic resonance images in adolescence and young adulthood. RESULTS: Total corpus callosum size increased in term and VPT groups, but growth was much greater in the VPT group (13.4% in the VPT group vs 3.3% in the term group). There were significant associations between adult performance IQ and growth of anterior (P = .001), midposterior (P = .009), and posterior (P = .009) segments in the VPT group. CONCLUSIONS: The corpus callosum grows dramatically in VPT adolescents, and this growth is associated with neuropsychological outcome. This may represent a delay of a normal maturational process in VPT individuals.