Contextual factors influencing incomplete immunization and investigation of its geospatial heterogeneity in Pakistan: a cross-sectional study based on PDHS (2017-18).

BACKGROUND: Immunization is one of the most effective public health initiatives, saving millions of lives and lowering the risk of diseases such as diphtheria, tetanus, influenza, and measles. Immunization saves an estimated 2-3 million lives per year. A study of the regional variations in incomplete immunization will be useful in identifying gaps in the performance of immunization programs that are not noticed by standard vaccination programs monitoring. The primary goal of this study was to identify factors influencing child immunization status and to examine regional variations in incomplete immunization among children aged 12 to 23 months in Pakistan. METHODS: For the current study, the data were taken from the Demographic and Health Survey for Pakistan (PDHS 2017-2018). Ever-married women who had children aged 12-23 months were included in this study. The immunization status of children was used as an outcome variable. In order to determine the effects of different factors on incomplete immunization, multilevel logistic model was used. To study the geographical variation of incomplete immunization, hotspot analysis was done using ArcGIS 10.7 and SaTScan software and to identify significant predictors of incomplete immunization, GWR 4 software was used. RESULTS: Place of delivery, gender of child, mother's educational level and region were identified as significant determinants of incomplete immunization of children in Pakistan. Chances of incomplete immunization of children were found significantly lower for educated mothers (AOR = 0.52, 95% CI 0.34-0.79) and mothers who had delivered children in the health facilities (AOR = 0.51, 95% CI 0.32-0.83). Female children were more likely (AOR = 1.44, 1.95% CI 1.04-1.99) to be incompletely immunized as compared to male children. FATA (AOR = 11.19, 95% CI 4.89-25.6), and Balochistan (AOR = 10.94, 95% CI 5.08-23.58) were found at the highest risk of incomplete immunization of children as compared to Punjab. The significant spatial heterogeneity of incomplete immunization was found across Pakistan. The spatial distribution of incomplete immunization was clustered all over Pakistan. The high prevalence of incomplete immunization was observed in Balochistan, South Sindh, North Sindh, South KPK, South FATA, Gilgit Baltistan, Azad Jammu Kashmir, South and East Punjab. Drang and Harcho were identified as hotspot areas of incomplete immunization in Gilgit Baltistan. Secondary clusters with a high risk of incomplete immunization were found in regions Balochistan, Sindh and FATA. CONCLUSION: Gender biasedness towards female children, regarding complete immunization of children prevailed in Pakistan. Spatial heterogeneity was also found for incomplete immunization of children. To overcome the problem access to health facilities is the foremost step. Government should target hotspot areas of incomplete immunization of children to provide primary health care facilities by opening health care units in these areas. The government in collaboration with the media should launch awareness campaigns in those areas to convince people that complete immunization is the right of every child regardless of gender.

Pattern and trends of the total and age-specific fertility rates during 1990-2018 in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan has an inadequate vital event registration system, leading to fewer than half of all births being registered, and this issue is further exacerbated by systematic recall errors and omission of births. This study aims to evaluate direct and indirect methods of fertility estimation to analyze the trends and patterns of fertility rates in Pakistan from 1990 to 2018. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Indirect methods are utilized in this study to evaluate the direction and extent of changes in total and age-specific fertility rates, and these findings are compared to direct estimates. The study draws data on livebirths from four waves of the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey that took place between 1990 and 2018. To ensure the quality of data, graphical methods and Whipple and Myers indices are employed. Additionally, the Brass Relational Gompertz model was used to analyze the data. RESULTS: The Relational Gompertz model revealed that total fertility rates (TFRs) were higher than direct estimates by 0.4 children and age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) were higher for all age groups except the oldest. The difference was more significant among younger women aged 15-24, and less so for age groups 29 and above. The gap in estimated fertility between direct and indirect methods decreased with age. CONCLUSION: The indirect method is an invaluable tool in situations where direct measurement of fertility rates is challenging or impossible. By utilizing this method, policymakers can gain important insights into the fertility patterns and trends of a population, which is crucial for making informed decisions on fertility planning.

Trends and risk factors of stillbirth among women of reproductive age in Pakistan: A multivariate decomposition analysis.

Background: Every year, 2 million babies are stillborn in the world. Globally, there has been a decline in the stillbirth rate of 2%. Despite advancements in prenatal care and the implementation of new medical technologies, the incidence of early stillbirths remains unchanged. A slight decrease in the rate of late-term stillbirth has been observed. Pakistan ranked third in South Asia for having the highest stillbirth rate. Compared to its neighbors and other developing nations, Pakistan has shown a lack of progress in reducing maternal and neonatal fatalities. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to use a multivariate decomposition analysis to examine the trends and factors that have contributed to the change in the stillbirth rate over time. Methods: To conduct this study, we used a secondary data analysis approach and analyzed data from the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) of 2012-2013 and 2017-2018). For the analysis, a total sample of 15,068 births in 2017-2018 and 13,558 births in the PDHS from 2012 to 2013 were taken into account. Using the MVDCMP function within STATA version 15 statistical software, a logit-based multivariate decomposition model was fitted to determine the variables that influence the change in stillbirth. The current study used two cross-sectional surveys to identify important risk factors for stillbirths. Results: Over the past 5 years, Pakistan's stillbirth rate has risen from 3.98 to 5.75%. According to the total multivariate decomposition analysis, the change in coefficient (change in the effect of attributes) accounted for 81.17% of the overall change in the proportion of stillbirths. In contrast, the change in endowment was not statistically significant. Changes in maternal education, individual and community-level wealth status, and mode of delivery all significantly impacted the rate of stillbirths over time. Conclusion: Stillbirths increased in Pakistan from 2012 to 2017. Stillbirths are observed more frequently for women residing in Punjab, Sindh, and rural areas. A major concern that is directly related to the prevalence of stillbirths in Pakistan is the lack of accessible, affordable, and high-quality maternal healthcare facilities. Older, overweight, and uneducated women are more likely to have stillbirths than women who deliver vaginally. High parity and short birth intervals also accelerated the rate of stillbirths. An effective remedy to control stillbirths is the provision of accessible and affordable healthcare services. Awareness campaigns for the health education of pregnant women should focus on raising awareness to support better pregnancy outcomes for poor women living in communities with higher education levels. The risk of stillbirth can be reduced by offering free diagnostics for early detection of birth complications in low-resource settings and referring these cases to knowledgeable gynecologists for safe delivery.

Prevalence and associated factors of stunting, wasting and underweight of children below five using quintile regression analysis (PDHS 2017-2018).

The objective of the current study is to identify the risk factors for malnutrition among the age of under-five children's in Pakistan. This is secondary data analysis for the data taken from Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS 2017-18) and was analyzed by implementing quantile regression analysis. The sample size included 12,708 alive children in the study, for which the data collection period was from November 22, 2017, to April 30, 2018. The prevalence of malnutrition among boys is high (51.2%). Older age mother's children have more prevalence of malnutrition (20.7%). A child born with small body size (underweight: Q0.25: - 0.625; Q0.50: - 0.623; Q0.75: - 0.426 and wasting: Q0.50: - 0.513); having uneducated mother (underweight: Q0.25: - 0.387; Q0.50: - 0.247; Q0.75: - 0.328), belonged to a poor household (underweight: Q0.50: - 0.251),residing in rural areas (underweight: Q0.25: - 0.443), not following properly breastfeeding practices (underweight: Q0.50: - 0.439; Q0.75: - 0.438) have negative effect on different measures of malnutrition and this effect is significantly raises across different quantiles of stunting , wasting and underweight (at p value < 0.01 and < 0.05). Older age mother (stunting: Q0.50: 0.777; Q0.75: 1.078; underweight Q0.20: 0.568; Q0.50: 0.429; Q0.75: 0.524) and higher birth order number (stunting: Q0.50: 0.415; Q0.75: 0.535), have a positive effect on three measures of under-nutrition and this effect is gradual raises at different quantile of stunting, wasting and underweight. Elder and smoker mothers were proved associated risk factors of both stunting and being underweight in Pakistan. Moreover, Proper breastfeeding practices, better economic status, average or above the average birth weight of the child, and milk consumption are found protective factors against stunting, wasting, and underweight children in Pakistan.

Role of socioeconomic and parental involvement factors on children foundational learning skills based on MICS (2017-2018) data Punjab, Pakistan.

Developing countries lack studies investigated the socioeconomic and parental role on students' learning skills. This study is helpful to detect bottlenecks in the foundational learning skills (reading skills and numeracy skills) in the education system of Pakistan. Reading skills of children are found better who had no functional disabilities. Mothers with higher education had a significant positive contribution toward children learning skills. Children deprived of books for reading in appropriate language had a negative impact on their reading skills. Rich children had predominantly higher possibilities of good learning skills than poor children. Parents who had not attended children's school to discuss child progress had a significantly negative effect on children's numeracy skills. Overall parental involvement in some forms had insignificantly improved children reading and numeracy skills in Punjab, Pakistan.

Socio demographic determinants of BMI of Pakistani women: An evidence from PDHS (2017-18) using quantile regression analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the socio-demographic determinants of nutritional status of Pakistani women. METHODS: The retrospective secondary-data study was conducted at Lahore College for Women University, Lahore, Pakistan from March to July 2019, and comprised a review of the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18 for which the data-collection period was from November 22, 2017, to April 30, 2018. Body mass index was taken as a reflection of the women's nutritional status. Ordinary least square and quantile regression models were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: Age, education, frequency of watching TV, wealth index, husband's education and region showed a positive effect on women's body mass index, while age of women at first birth, women's working status, gender of household head and region showed negative effect on women's body mass index (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Overweight/obesity was found to be a more serious problem compared to under-nutrition in Pakistani women.

Differentials and determinants of neonatal mortality in Pakistan: A cross sectional analysis; Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (2017-18).

OBJECTIVE: To investigate differentials and determinants of neonatal mortality in Pakistan. METHODS: The cross-sectional data-based study was conducted at Lahore College for Women University, Lahore, Pakistan from February to July 2019, and comprised data obtained from the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18 which related to the period from November 22, 2017, to April 30, 2018. Neonatal mortality rates were computed to observe the differentials in relation to various categories of socio-demographic factors. Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify significant factors affecting neonatal mortality. RESULTS: Hazard of neonatal mortality significantly decreased as household size increased (hazard ratio: 0.41 and 0.36). Household with improved toilet facility had significantly lower chances (hazard ratio: 0.57) of neonatal death compared to that with unimproved toilet facility. Significantly elevated risk (hazard ratio: 5.56) of neonate death was observed in case of multiple births. Children had better chances (hazard ratio: 0.32 and 0.34) of surviving in neonatal period as duration of birth spacing increased (24-35 months; 36 or more months). CONCLUSIONS: Household size, improved toilet facilities, multiple births and preceding birth intervals had significant effect on neonatal mortality.

Statistical Analysis of Factors Affecting Child Mortality in Pakistan.

Child mortality is a composite indicator reflecting economic, social, environmental, healthcare services, and their delivery situation in a country. Globally, Pakistan has the third highest burden of fetal, maternal, and child mortality. Factors affecting child mortality in Pakistan are investigated by using Binary Logistic Regression Analysis. Region, education of mother, birth order, preceding birth interval (the period between the previous child birth and the index child birth), size of child at birth, and breastfeeding and family size were found to be significantly important with child mortality in Pakistan. Child mortality decreased as level of mother's education, preceding birth interval, size of child at birth, and family size increased. Child mortality was found to be significantly higher in Balochistan as compared to other regions. Child mortality was low for low birth orders. Child survival was significantly higher for children who were breastfed as compared to those who were not.