Applying mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of COVID-19-related VMMC service disruptions on new HIV infections in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems with knock on effects on diagnosis, treatment, and care. To mitigate the impact, the government of Zimbabwe enforced a strict lockdown beginning 30 March 2020 which ran intermittently until early 2021. In this period, the Ministry of Health and Childcare strategically prioritized delivery of services leading to partial and full suspension of services considered non-essential, including HIV prevention. As a result, Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) services were disrupted leading to an 80% decline in circumcisions conducted in 2020. Given the efficacy of VMMC, we quantified the potential effects of VMMC service disruption on new HIV infections in Zimbabwe. METHODS: We applied the GOALS model to evaluate the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on reducing new HIV infections over 30-years. GOALS is an HIV simulation model that estimates number of new HIV infections based on sexual behaviours of population groups. The model is parameterized based on national surveys and HIV program data. We hypothesized three coverage scenarios by 2030: scenario I - pre-COVID trajectory: 80% VMMC coverage; Scenario II - marginal COVID-19 impact: 60% VMMC coverage, and scenario III - severe COVID-19 impact: 45% VMMC coverage. VMMC coverage between 2020 and 2030 was linearly interpolated to attain the estimated coverage and then held constant from 2030 to 2050, and discounted outcomes at 3%. RESULTS: Compared to the baseline scenario I, in scenario II, we estimated that the disruption of VMMC services would generate an average of 200 (176-224) additional new infections per year and 7,200 new HIV infections over the next 30 years. For scenario III, we estimated an average of 413 (389-437) additional new HIV infections per year and 15,000 new HIV infections over the next 30 years. The disruption of VMMC services could generate additional future HIV treatment costs ranging from $27 million to $55 million dollars across scenarios II and III, respectively. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 disruptions destabilized delivery of VMMC services which could contribute to an additional 7,200 new infections over the next 30 years. Unless mitigated, these disruptions could derail the national goals of reducing new infections by 2030.

Pandemic influenza preparedness in the WHO African region: are we ready yet?

BACKGROUND: Prior to the 2009 pandemic H1N1, and the unprecedented outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) caused by the H5N1 virus, the World Health Organization (WHO) called upon its Member States to develop preparedness plans in response to a new pandemic in humans. The WHO Member States responded to this call by developing national pandemic plans in accordance with the International Health Regulations (IHR) to strengthen the capabilities of Member States to respond to different pandemic scenarios. In this study, we aim to evaluate the quality of the preparedness plans in the WHO African region since their inception in 2005. METHODS: A standard checklist with 61 binary indicators ("yes" or "no") was used to assess the quality of the preparedness plans. The checklist was categorised across seven thematic areas of preparedness: preparation (16 indicators); coordination and partnership (5 indicators); risk communication (8 indicators); surveillance and monitoring (7 indicators); prevention and containment (10 indicators); case investigation and treatment (10 indicators) and ethical consideration (5 indicators). Four assessors independently scored the plans against the checklist. RESULTS: Of the 47 countries in the WHO African region, a total of 35 national pandemic plans were evaluated. The composite score for the completeness of the pandemic plans across the 35 countries was 36%. Country-specific scores on each of the thematic indicators for pandemic plan completeness varied, ranging from 5% in Côte d'Ivoire to 79% in South Africa. On average, preparation and risk communication scored 48%, respectively, while coordination and partnership scored the highest with an aggregate score of 49%. Surveillance and monitoring scored 34%, while prevention and containment scored 35%. Case investigation and treatment scored 25%, and ethical consideration scored the lowest of 14% across 35 countries. Overall, our assessment shows that pandemic preparedness plans across the WHO African region are inadequate. CONCLUSIONS: Moving forward, these plans must address the gaps identified in this study and demonstrate clarity in their goals that are achievable through drills, simulations and tabletop exercises.

Epidemiology of hepatitis A virus in Africa among persons aged 1-10 years: a systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: Africa is considered an area of high endemicity for hepatitis A virus infection. However, in the past two decades, tremendous progress has been made in improving water sources and sanitation which are risk factors for hepatitis A virus infection. Recent studies suggest that several African countries could be in epidemiological transitions due to the evident socio-economic development. As a result, there may be a decrease in the exposure to and infection with hepatitis A virus at an early age. Understanding and mapping the shifting epidemiology is vital in developing control measures against the disease. We are conducting a comprehensive systematic review study to document the current burden of hepatitis A virus infection in Africa. METHODS: Our population of interest is children between 1 and 10 years in any African country. We will select cross-sectional, case-control, and cohort studies that have tested hepatitis A virus infection by serological confirmation of antibodies against the virus. We will search for eligible studies published without language restrictions from PubMed, Scopus, Africa-wide, Web of Science, and WHOLIS as well as the reference lists of the relevant articles. Two authors will independently review the search outputs, select eligible articles, and extract pre-defined study outcomes. Inconsistencies will be resolved by discussion and consensus among the authors. Data will be extracted using a standardised data collection form. Trends in the prevalence and/or incidence will be evaluated by urban and rural setting if sufficient data is available. Where there is sufficient homogeneity between studies, meta-analysis will also be conducted, otherwise the results will be presented in a narrative format. DISCUSSION: The systematic review will generate up-to-date information on the current burden of hepatitis A virus in Africa. This information may have implications on policy for hepatitis A vaccination on individual African countries. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: CRD42015023764.