Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics.

Spatio-temporal travelling waves are striking manifestations of predator-prey and host-parasite dynamics. However, few systems are well enough documented both to detect repeated waves and to explain their interaction with spatio-temporal variations in population structure and demography. Here, we demonstrate recurrent epidemic travelling waves in an exhaustive spatio-temporal data set for measles in England and Wales. We use wavelet phase analysis, which allows for dynamical non-stationarity--a complication in interpreting spatio-temporal patterns in these and many other ecological time series. In the pre-vaccination era, conspicuous hierarchical waves of infection moved regionally from large cities to small towns; the introduction of measles vaccination restricted but did not eliminate this hierarchical contagion. A mechanistic stochastic model suggests a dynamical explanation for the waves-spread via infective 'sparks' from large 'core' cities to smaller 'satellite' towns. Thus, the spatial hierarchy of host population structure is a prerequisite for these infection waves.

Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape.

Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm-based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.

Phase-field modeling of stress-induced instabilities.

A phase-field approach describing the dynamics of a strained solid in contact with its melt is developed. Using a formulation that is independent of the state of reference chosen for the displacement field, we write down the elastic energy in an unambiguous fashion, thus obtaining an entire class of models. According to the choice of reference state, the particular model emerging from this class will become equivalent to one of the two independently constructed models on which brief accounts have been given recently [J. Müller and M. Grant, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 1736 (1999); K. Kassner and C. Misbah, Europhys. Lett. 46, 217 (1999)]. We show that our phase-field approach recovers the sharp-interface limit corresponding to the continuum model equations describing the Asaro-Tiller-Grinfeld instability. Moreover, we use our model to derive hitherto unknown sharp-interface equations for a situation including a field of body forces. The numerical utility of the phase-field approach is demonstrated by reproducing some known results and by comparison with a sharp-interface simulation. We then proceed to investigate the dynamics of extended systems within the phase-field model which contains an inherent lower length cutoff, thus avoiding cusp singularities. It is found that a periodic array of grooves generically evolves into a superstructure which arises from a series of imperfect period doublings. For wave numbers close to the fastest-growing mode of the linear instability, the first period doubling can be obtained analytically. Both the dynamics of an initially periodic array and a random initial structure can be described as a coarsening process with winning grooves temporarily accelerating whereas losing ones decelerate and even reverse their direction of motion. In the absence of gravity, the end state of a laterally finite system is a single groove growing at constant velocity, as long as no secondary instabilities arise (that we have not been able to see with our code). With gravity, several grooves are possible, all of which are bound to stop eventually. A laterally infinite system approaches a scaling state in the absence of gravity and probably with gravity, too.