Stakeholder-driven transformative adaptation is needed for climate-smart nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa.

Improving nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa under increasing climate risks and population growth requires a strong and contextualized evidence base. Yet, to date, few studies have assessed climate-smart agriculture and nutrition security simultaneously. Here we use an integrated assessment framework (iFEED) to explore stakeholder-driven scenarios of food system transformation towards climate-smart nutrition security in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. iFEED translates climate-food-emissions modelling into policy-relevant information using model output implication statements. Results show that diversifying agricultural production towards more micronutrient-rich foods is necessary to achieve an adequate population-level nutrient supply by mid-century. Agricultural areas must expand unless unprecedented rapid yield improvements are achieved. While these transformations are challenging to accomplish and often associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions, the alternative for a nutrition-secure future is to rely increasingly on imports, which would outsource emissions and be economically and politically challenging given the large import increases required.

Evolution of energy and nutrient supply in Zambia (1961-2013) in the context of policy, political, social, economic, and climatic changes.

An adequate supply of energy, micronutrients and macronutrients is essential to achieve food and nutrition security to prevent malnutrition. Socio-economic, political, and climatic events, however, can affect the supply of food and nutrients. We assessed country-level supply trends of food and nutrients and their sources within the context of policy changes and political, socio-economic and climatic events from 1961 to 2013 in Zambia. Due to the lack of national food consumption data, food supply data from the FAO food balance sheets, matched to food composition tables, were used to estimate the energy, macronutrient and micronutrient content of 264 food items available to Zambia. We calculated historical nutrient supplies based on demographic characteristics and population-level dietary requirements. Results showed that Zambia was nutrition insecure from 1961 to 2013 for key micronutrients vitamin A, folate, riboflavin, vitamin B12, calcium, zinc, iron, and energy-deficient from the late-1980s. The diet has not substantially changed over time, with maize being the dominant food source. However, refined energy-dense food has steadily increased in the diet coupled with a reduction in fibre. These nutrient supply and dietary pattern trends coincide with specific socio-economic, policy, political, and climatic events from the 1970s to the early-mid 2000s, such as population growth, maize subsidy and crop diversification policies, regime change and drought. This study shows how policy, political and climatic events have been central features shaping nutrient supplies and the consequences for nutrition security. The study provides a context to inform future food policies to improve food and nutrition security. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-022-01329-1.