Anthropogenic Decline of Ancient, Sustainable Water Systems: Qanats.

Qanat is an ancient underground structure to abstract groundwater without the need for external energy. A recognized world heritage, Qanat has enabled civilization in arid and semi-arid regions that lack perennial surface water resources. These important structures, however, have faced significant challenges in recent decades due to increasing anthropogenic pressures. This study uses remote sensing to investigate land-use changes and the loss of 15,983 Qanat shafts in the Mashhad plain, northeast of Iran, during the past six decades. This entails obtaining a rare aerial imagery from 1961, as well as recent satellite imagery, over a region with the highest density of Qanats in Iran, the birthplace of Qanat. Results showed that only 5.59% of the Qanat shafts in 1961 remained intact in 2021. The most prominent Qanat-impacting land-use changes were agriculture and urban areas, that accounted for 42.93 and 31.81% Qanat shaft destruction in the study area, respectively. This study also showed that groundwater table decline, demographic changes, and reduction in the appeal of working in the Qanat maintenance and construction industry among the new generation are existential threats to Qanats, and may result in the demise of these ancient structures in the future. Findings of this study can be used for urban planning in arid and semi-arid areas with the aim of protecting these historic water structures.

Agricultural Adaptation to Reconcile Food Security and Water Sustainability Under Climate Change: The Case of Cereals in Iran.

In this study, we simulate the crop yield and water footprint (WF) of major food crops of Iran on irrigated and rainfed croplands for the historical and the future climate. We assess the effects of three agricultural adaptation strategies to climate change in terms of potential blue water savings. We then evaluate to what extent these savings can reduce unsustainable blue WF. We find that cereal production increases under climate change in both irrigated and rainfed croplands (by 2.6-3.1 and 1.4-2.3 million t yr-1, respectively) due to increased yields (6.6%-78.7%). Simultaneously, the unit WF (m3 t-1) tends to decrease in most scenarios. However, the annual consumptive water use increases in both irrigated and rainfed croplands (by 0.3-1.8 and 0.5-1.7 billion m3 yr-1, respectively). This is most noticeable in the arid regions, where consumptive water use increases by roughly 70% under climate change. Off-season cultivation is the most effective adaptation strategy to alleviate additional pressure on blue water resources with blue water savings of 14-15 billion m3 yr-1. The second most effective is WF benchmarking, which results in blue water savings of 1.1-3.5 billion m3 yr-1. The early planting strategy is less effective but still leads to blue water savings of 1.7-1.9 billion m3 yr-1. In the same order of effectiveness, these three strategies can reduce blue water scarcity and unsustainable blue water use in Iran under current conditions. However, we find that these strategies do not mitigate water scarcity in all provinces per se, nor all months of the year.

Assessing agro-environmental sustainability of intensive agricultural systems.

Sustainable production in water-scarce regions entails not to overshoot the sustainable blue water availability (BWA), which in turn requires addressing environmental flow requirements (EFRs). We explored the long-term effects of agricultural development, before (1984-1997) and during (1998-2018) the operation of the modern irrigation and drainage network of Tajan (TIDN), northern Iran, on the sustainability of blue water consumptions. A combination of different methods were applied to estimate hydrological EFRs of rivers, ab-bandans (traditional water reservoirs), and groundwater resources. Three major pollutants in the region's water resources, including nitrogen, phosphorus, and salinity, were used to estimate water quality EFR. Monthly agriculture water footprints (WFs) were calculated using the AquaCrop model, and then were compared with the region's BWA, which was calculated by subtracting monthly EFRs from monthly natural runoff. When WF exceeded BWA, the production system includes unsustainable water consumption. The EFR satisfaction of surface water decreased after TIDN operation by about 19%. Unmanaged nitrogen application and post-TIDN overexploitation of groundwater resulted in substantial increase in groundwater EFR violation. The TIDN led to more water consuming cropping pattern resulting in increased agricultural water consumption by about 73%. Overall, agricultural development in TIDN was beyond the capacity of the area, which resulted in up to about 167 MCM y-1 unsustainable blue water consumption. Based on the results, the new framework presented for assessing agro-environmental sustainability could assist managers and policy makers to modify agricultural systems according to environment resilience.

Agro-economic and socio-environmental assessments of food and virtual water trades of Iran.

Ending hunger and ensuring food security are among targets of 2030's SDGs. While food trade and the embedded (virtual) water (VW) may improve food availability and accessibility for more people all year round, the sustainability and efficiency of food and VW trade needs to be revisited. In this research, we assess the sustainability and efficiency of food and VW trades under two food security scenarios for Iran, a country suffering from an escalating water crisis. These scenarios are (1) Individual Crop Food Security (ICFS), which restricts calorie fulfillment from individual crops and (2) Crop Category Food Security (CCFS), which promotes "eating local" by suggesting food substitution within the crop category. To this end, we simulate the water footprint and VW trades of 27 major crops, within 8 crop categories, in 30 provinces of Iran (2005-2015). We investigate the impacts of these two scenarios on (a) provincial food security (FSp) and exports; (b) sustainable and efficient blue water consumption, and (c) blue VW export. We then test the correlation between agro-economic and socio-environmental indicators and provincial food security. Our results show that most provinces were threatened by unsustainable and inefficient blue water consumption for crop production, particularly in the summertime. This water mismanagement results in 14.41 and 8.45 billion m3 y-1 unsustainable and inefficient blue VW exports under ICFS. "Eating local" improves the FSp value by up to 210% which lessens the unsustainable and inefficient blue VW export from hotspots. As illustrated in the graphical abstract, the FSp value strongly correlates with different agro-economic and socio-environmental indicators, but in different ways. Our findings promote "eating local" besides improving agro-economic and socio-environmental conditions to take transformative steps toward eradicating food insecurity not only in Iran but also in other countries facing water limitations.

Socioeconomic benefits of conserving Iran's water resources through modifying agricultural practices and water management strategies.

Sustainable development requires modifying the current consumption pattern of natural resources. This study investigates efficient tactics for reducing the unsustainability and inefficiency of human's food-related blue water consumption alongside improving national environmental and socioeconomic status. As a case study for Iran, 15 alternative management scenarios (AMS) were defined compared to the current on-farm management, and their effects were assessed on a monthly scale. Based on the results, 45.5 billion m3 y-1 (BCM) blue water is consumed within the croplands, 78% and 34% of which are unsustainable and inefficient, respectively. AMCs reduces the unsustainable and inefficient blue water consumption by 2-17 BCM and 2-13 BCM, respectively. The combination of yield gap closure, drip irrigation, soil mulching, and deficit irrigation has the largest effect on blue water saving; it releases or changes the status of monthly blue water scarcity in 11 provinces; increases field-employees by 132%, food security by 9%, international food-export by 87%, and gross domestic production by 54%. However, it doesn't fully address blue water overconsumption in the summer period; hence, further measures are needed to reduce blue water scarcity to the sustainable level in these environmental hotspots.