Water level changes, subsidence, and sea level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta.

Being one of the most vulnerable regions in the world, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta presents a major challenge for climate change adaptation of nearly 200 million inhabitants. It is often considered as a delta mostly exposed to sea-level rise and exacerbated by land subsidence, even if the local vertical land movement rates remain uncertain. Here, we reconstruct the water-level (WL) changes over 1968 to 2012, using an unprecedented set of 101 water-level gauges across the delta. Over the last 45 y, WL in the delta increased slightly faster (∼3 mm/y), than global mean sea level (∼2 mm/y). However, from 2005 onward, we observe an acceleration in the WL rise in the west of the delta. The interannual WL fluctuations are strongly modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) variability, with WL lower than average by 30 to 60 cm during co-occurrent El Niño and positive IOD events and higher-than-average WL, by 16 to 35 cm, during La Niña years. Using satellite altimetry and WL reconstructions, we estimate that the maximum expected rates of delta subsidence during 1993 to 2012 range from 1 to 7 mm/y. By 2100, even under a greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5), the subsidence could double the projected sea-level rise, making it reach 85 to 140 cm across the delta. This study provides a robust regional estimate of contemporary relative WL changes in the delta induced by continental freshwater dynamics, vertical land motion, and sea-level rise, giving a basis for developing climate mitigation strategies.

Current-oriented swimming by jellyfish and its role in bloom maintenance.

Cross-flows (winds or currents) affect animal movements [1-3]. Animals can temporarily be carried off course or permanently carried away from their preferred habitat by drift depending on their own traveling speed in relation to that of the flow [1]. Animals able to only weakly fly or swim will be the most impacted (e.g., [4]). To circumvent this problem, animals must be able to detect the effects of flow on their movements and respond to it [1, 2]. Here, we show that a weakly swimming organism, the jellyfish Rhizostoma octopus, can orientate its movements with respect to currents and that this behavior is key to the maintenance of blooms and essential to reduce the probability of stranding. We combined in situ observations with first-time deployment of accelerometers on free-ranging jellyfish and simulated the behavior observed in wild jellyfish within a high-resolution hydrodynamic model. Our results show that jellyfish can actively swim countercurrent in response to current drift, leading to significant life-history benefits, i.e., increased chance of survival and facilitated bloom formation. Current-oriented swimming may be achieved by jellyfish either directly detecting current shear across their body surface [5] or indirectly assessing drift direction using other cues (e.g., magnetic, infrasound). Our coupled behavioral-hydrodynamic model provides new evidence that current-oriented swimming contributes to jellyfish being able to form aggregations of hundreds to millions of individuals for up to several months, which may have substantial ecosystem and socioeconomic consequences [6, 7]. It also contributes to improve predictions of jellyfish blooms' magnitude and movements in coastal waters.