A comparative study of logistic regression based machine learning techniques for prediction of early virological suppression in antiretroviral initiating HIV patients.

BACKGROUND: Treatment with effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) lowers morbidity and mortality among HIV positive individuals. Effective highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) should lead to undetectable viral load within 6 months of initiation of therapy. Failure to achieve and maintain viral suppression may lead to development of resistance and increase the risk of viral transmission. In this paper three logistic regression based machine learning approaches are developed to predict early virological outcomes using easily measurable baseline demographic and clinical variables (age, body weight, sex, TB disease status, ART regimen, viral load, CD4 count). The predictive performance and generalizability of the approaches are compared. METHODS: The multitask temporal logistic regression (MTLR), patient specific survival prediction (PSSP) and simple logistic regression (SLR) models were developed and validated using the IDI research cohort data and predictive performance tested on an external dataset from the EFV cohort. The model calibration and discrimination plots, discriminatory measures (AUROC, F1) and overall predictive performance (brier score) were assessed. RESULTS: The MTLR model outperformed the PSSP and SLR models in terms of goodness of fit (RMSE = 0.053, 0.1, and 0.14 respectively), discrimination (AUROC = 0.92, 0.75 and 0.53 respectively) and general predictive performance (Brier score= 0.08, 0.19, 0.11 respectively). The predictive importance of variables varied with time after initiation of ART. The final MTLR model accurately (accuracy = 92.9%) predicted outcomes in the external (EFV cohort) dataset with satisfactory discrimination (0.878) and a low (6.9%) false positive rate. CONCLUSION: Multitask Logistic regression based models are capable of accurately predicting early virological suppression using readily available baseline demographic and clinical variables and could be used to derive a risk score for use in resource limited settings.

A survey of machine learning applications in HIV clinical research and care.

A wealth of genetic, demographic, clinical and biomarker data is collected from routine clinical care of HIV patients and exists in the form of medical records available among the medical care and research communities. Machine learning (ML) methods have the ability to identify and discover patterns in complex datasets and predict future outcomes of HIV treatment. We survey published studies that make use of ML techniques in HIV clinical research and care. An advanced search relevant to the use of ML in HIV research was conducted in the PubMed biomedical database. The survey outcomes of interest include data sources, ML techniques, ML tasks and ML application paradigms. A growing trend in application of ML in HIV research was observed. The application paradigm has diversified to include practical clinical application, but statistical analysis remains the most dominant application. There is an increase in the use of genomic sources of data and high performance non-parametric ML methods with a focus on combating resistance to antiretroviral therapy (ART). There is need for improvement in collection of health records data and increased training in ML so as to translate ML research into clinical application in HIV management.