Forecasting effects of tree species reintroduction strategies on carbon stocks in a future without historical analog.

American chestnut (Castanea dentata) was once an important component forests in the central Appalachians (USA), but it was functionally extirpated nearly a century ago. Attempts are underway to reintroduce blight-resistant chestnut to its former range, but it is uncertain how current forest composition, climate, and atmospheric changes and disturbance regimes will interact to determine future forest dynamics and ecosystem services. The combination of novel environmental conditions (e.g. climate change), a reintroduced tree species and new disturbance regimes (e.g. exotic insect pests, fire suppression) have no analog in the past that can be used to parameterize phenomenological models. We therefore used a mechanistic approach within the LANDIS-II forest landscape model that relies on physiological first principles to project forest dynamics as the outcome of competition of tree cohorts for light and water as a function of temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration, and life history traits. We conducted a factorial landscape simulation experiment to evaluate specific hypotheses about future forest dynamics in two study sites in the center of the former range of chestnut. Our results supported the hypotheses that climate change would favor chestnut because of its optimal temperature range and relative drought resistance, and that chestnut would be less competitive in the more mesic Appalachian Plateau province because competitors will be less stressed. The hypothesis that chestnut will increase carbon stocks was supported, although the increase was modest. Our results confirm that aggressive restoration is needed regardless of climate and soils, and that increased aggressiveness of chestnut restoration increased biomass accumulation. The hypothesis that chestnut restoration will increase both compositional and structural richness was not supported because chestnut displaced some species and age cohorts. Although chestnut restoration did not markedly enhance carbon stocks, our findings provide hope that this formerly important species can be successfully reintroduced and associated ecosystem services recovered.

An ecoregional context for forest management on National Wildlife Refuges of the Upper Midwest, USA.

To facilitate forest planning and management on National Wildlife Refuges, we synthesized multiple data sources to describe land ownership patterns, land cover, landscape pattern, and changes in forest composition for four ecoregions and their associated refuges of the Upper Midwest. We related observed patterns to ecological processes important for forest conservation and restoration, with specific attention to refuge patterns of importance for forest landbirds of conservation priority. The large amount of public land within the ecoregions (31-80%) suggests that opportunities exist for coarse and meso-scale approaches to conserving and restoring ecological processes affecting the refuges, particularly historical fire regimes. Forests dominate both ecoregions and refuges, but refuge forest patches are generally larger and more aggregated than in associated ecoregions. Broadleaf taxa have increased in dominance in the ecoregions and displaced fire-dependent taxa such as pine (Pinus spp.) and other coniferous species; these changes in forest composition have likely also affected refuge forests. Despite compositional changes, larger forest patches on refuges suggests that they may provide better habitat for area-sensitive forest landbirds of mature, compositionally diverse forests than surrounding lands if management continues to promote increased patch size. We reason that although fine-scale research and monitoring for species of conservation priority is important, broad scale (ecoregional) assessments provide crucial context for effective forest and wildlife management in protected areas.

Reconciling divergent interpretations of quaking aspen decline on the northern Colorado Front Range.

Ecologists have debated over the past 65 years whether quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) has or has not declined in abundance, vigor, or regeneration in western North America. Many studies have provided divergent interpretations of the condition of aspen forests, leading to difficulty in translating this ecological information into management recommendations. To reconcile these contrasting conclusions and to test the hypothesis that multiple types of aspen decline and persistence occur simultaneously on heterogeneous landscapes, we assessed 91 aspen stands across the northern Colorado Front Range to determine the range of ecological conditions that underlie aspen decline or persistence. Approximately 15% of aspen forest area in our sample exhibited dieback of mature stems coupled with a lack of young trees indicative of declining stands, most often at lower elevations where elk browsing is heavy and chronic, and where effects of fire exclusion have been most significant. However, 52% of the area sampled had multiple cohorts indicative of self-replacing or persistent stands. Conifer dominance was increasing in over 33% of all aspen forest area sampled, most often at high elevations among lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Englem. ex Wats.) forests. Reconstructions of relative basal area and density of aspen and lodgepole pine in these stands suggest cyclical dominance of these species, where conifers gradually replace aspen over long fire intervals, and aspen vigorously re-establish following stand-replacing fires. The diversity of ecological contexts across the northern Colorado Front Range creates a variety of aspen dynamics leading to decline or persistence, and no single trend describes the general condition of aspen forests in appropriate detail for managers. Active management may be useful in preserving individual stands at fine scales, but management prescriptions should reflect specific drivers of decline in these stands.