Severe outcomes among adults with TB during COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic prompted strict public health measures to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission, potentially interrupting TB programmes in the Western Cape, South Africa. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study, estimating changes in new TB case rates and risk of death during TB-specific admissions within 6 months of TB first evidence, during the pre-pandemic (1 January 2019-26 March 2020) and after the implementation of public health and social measures (PHSM) periods (26 March 2020-30 September 2021), based on PHSM strictness. We used interrupted time series and logistic regression models to adjust for key characteristics. RESULTS: We found an average 22% reduction (95% CI 19-25) in monthly TB cases during the entire PHSM implementation period. Additionally, the risk of death during TB-specific admissions increased, with the adjusted odds ratio ranging across PHSM levels from 1.36 (95% CI 1.17-1.57) on Level 1 to 1.44 (95% CI 1.16-1.79) on Level 2 compared with the pre-pandemic period. CONCLUSIONS: There was a decline in the number of diagnosed TB cases and an increased risk of severe outcomes from 26 March 2020 to 30 September 2021 in the Western Cape. TB programme recovery strategies must be prioritised, and TB management programmes must be integrated into future pandemic responses.

CONTEXTE: La pandémie de COVID-19 a entraîné la mise en place de mesures de santé publique strictes afin de limiter la propagation du SRAS-CoV-2, ce qui risque de perturber les efforts de lutte contre la TB dans la province du Cap-Occidental, en Afrique du Sud. MÉTHODES: Une étude de cohorte rétrospective a été réalisée afin d'évaluer les variations des taux de nouveaux cas de TB et le risque de décès lors des admissions spécifiques à la TB dans les 6 mois suivant la première preuve de la maladie. Cette étude a été menée pendant deux périodes distinctes : la période prépandémique, allant du 1er janvier 2019 au 26 mars 2020, et la période post-mise en œuvre des mesures de santé publique et sociales (PHSM, pour l'anglais « public health and social measures ¼), allant du 26 mars 2020 au 30 septembre 2021. L'objectif était d'évaluer l'impact des PHSM sur ces indicateurs. Pour ce faire, des séries temporelles interrompues et des modèles de régression logistique ont été utilisés afin de prendre en compte les principales caractéristiques. RÉSULTATS: Au cours de la période de mise en œuvre des PHSM, nous avons observé une diminution moyenne de 22% (IC à 95% 19­25) des cas mensuels de TB. De plus, nous avons constaté une augmentation du risque de décès pendant les admissions pour TB, avec un rapport de cotes ajusté variant de 1,36 (IC à 95% ; 1,17­1,57) au niveau 1 des PHSM à 1,44 (IC à 95% ; 1,16­1,79) au niveau 2, par rapport à la période prépandémique. CONCLUSIONS: Entre le 26 mars 2020 et le 30 septembre 2021, il y a eu une baisse du nombre de cas de TB diagnostiqués dans la province du Cap-Occidental, mais le risque de résultats graves a augmenté pendant cette période. Les stratégies de rétablissement des programmes de lutte contre la TB doivent être prioritaires et les programmes de gestion de la TB doivent être intégrés dans les futures réponses à la pandémie.

Estimating the changing burden of disease attributable to interpersonal violence in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.

BACKGROUND: South Africa (SA)'s high rate of interpersonal violence persists as a leading public health problem for the country. The first South African Comparative Risk Assessment Study (SACRA1) in 2000 quantified the long-term mental and physical health burden attributable to interpersonal violence by supplementing the direct injury burden of disease attributable to interpersonal violence injuries with the substantial contribution of mental health, behavioural and reproductive health consequences accruing from exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) and child sexual abuse. OBJECTIVES: To revise and improve these estimates by including the additional burden from other forms of child maltreatment, community violence, sexual violence by non-partners, and bullying victimisation in SA for 2000, 2006 and 2012, and trends over time. METHODS: We used comparative risk assessment methods to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) for interpersonal violence. This method requires inputs on the prevalence of exposure to the interpersonal violence risk factor subtypes, namely child maltreatment, bullying, IPV, sexual violence by non-partners and other community violence; the burden of related health outcomes (mortality and morbidity); and relative risks of health outcomes in individuals exposed to the risk factor v. those unexposed. We estimated the PAF for the combinations of all interpersonal violence subtypes together to estimate the burden attributable to interpersonal violence overall for 2000, 2006 and 2012. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2012, there was a decrease in interpersonal violence age-standardised attributable death rates from 100 to 71 per 100 000. In the second South African Comparative Risk Assessment Study (SACRA2), estimates of the attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for interpersonal violence for the year 2000 were revised, from 1.7 million to 2 million DALYs, taking into account attributable mortality and disability from additional forms of violence. There was a decrease in DALYs attributable to interpersonal violence from 2 million in 2000 to 1.75 million in 2012, accounting for 8.5% of the total burden for SA, ranking second highest, after unsafe sex, among 18 risk factors evaluated in 2012. CONCLUSION: Overall, interpersonal violence-attributable DALYs decreased substantially but remain high. The reduction in age-standardised attributable death rates indicates that some policy and social intervention aspects are effective. Further strengthening of existing laws pertaining to interpersonal violence, and other prevention measures, are needed to intensify the prevention of violence, particularly gender-based violence. Additional forms of violence included in this analysis have improved our understanding of the interpersonal violence burden, but the attributable burden in males, although exceedingly high, remains an underestimate. There is a need to improve the epidemiological data on prevalence and risks for the different types of interpersonal violence, particularly for males.

Moving towards a reliable HIV incidence test - current status, resources available, future directions and challenges ahead.

In 2011 the Incidence Assay Critical Path Working Group reviewed the current state of HIV incidence assays and helped to determine a critical path to the introduction of an HIV incidence assay. At that time the Consortium for Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays (CEPHIA) was formed to spur progress and raise standards among assay developers, scientists and laboratories involved in HIV incidence measurement and to structure and conduct a direct independent comparative evaluation of the performance of 10 existing HIV incidence assays, to be considered singly and in combinations as recent infection test algorithms. In this paper we report on a new framework for HIV incidence assay evaluation that has emerged from this effort over the past 5 years, which includes a preliminary target product profile for an incidence assay, a consensus around key performance metrics along with analytical tools and deployment of a standardized approach for incidence assay evaluation. The specimen panels for this evaluation have been collected in large volumes, characterized using a novel approach for infection dating rules and assembled into panels designed to assess the impact of important sources of measurement error with incidence assays such as viral subtype, elite host control of viraemia and antiretroviral treatment. We present the specific rationale for several of these innovations, and discuss important resources for assay developers and researchers that have recently become available. Finally, we summarize the key remaining steps on the path to development and implementation of reliable assays for monitoring HIV incidence at a population level.

Primary cutaneous malignancies in the Northern Cape Province of South Africa: A retrospective histopathological review.

BACKGROUND: Excessive sun exposure and a high prevalence of HIV increase skin cancer risk in South Africa (SA). OBJECTIVE: To describe the nature and extent of skin cancers presenting in the public and private health sectors of the Northern Cape Province of SA. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of histologically confirmed new primary cutaneous malignancies from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012 was conducted using public and private health sector databases. Types, quantity and distribution of common invasive malignancies by population group, age, gender, anatomical site and health sector were explored. One-year cumulative incidence was calculated and logistic regression models were used to analyse incidence and melanoma thickness trends. RESULTS: A total of 4 270 biopsies (13 cutaneous malignancies) were identified. The commonest was squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), followed by basal cell carcinoma, Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) and basosquamous carcinoma, in descending order. The odds of a white male developing SCC increased by 8% each year (odds ratio (OR) 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 - 1.15; p=0.022), while the odds of a black male developing SCC and KS decreased by 9% (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84 - 0.99; p=0.033) and 18% (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.70 - 0.97; p=0.022), respectively, each year. SCC and CMM were diagnosed at more advanced stages in the public than in the private healthcare sector. CMM is being detected earlier, as indicated by low-stage depth increasing by 72% annually (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.04 - 3.01; p=0.042). CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that reported skin cancer patterns are changing. There is a need for further research and equitable appropriation of financial resources and effort towards developing primary skin cancer prevention initiatives in SA.