RESUMO
Declining atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, through reduction in the direct input of inorganic N, may result in less inorganic N being leached from soils to freshwaters (dissolved inorganic N = DIN). Declining sulphur deposition, through reducing the ionic strength in soil water, increases the solubility and mobility of organic soil compounds and may result in increased leaching of organically bound N to freshwaters (total organic N = TON). It is unknown to which extent these two independents and opposing trends, i.e. DIN decline versus TON increase, may affect the nutrient balance (load, stoichiometry) of river water draining into coastal zones. By combining long-term atmospheric and riverine monitoring data of the five major Norwegian rivers draining to the Skagerrak coast, we show that over the past 27 years (1990-2017) river water nutrient composition, and specifically N stoichiometry has been steadily shifting from inorganic to organic fractions, with correlations to changes in human pressures (air pollution), but especially climate (precipitation, temperature, discharge). This shift in nutrient quality may have large consequences on the nutrient cycling in both freshwater and coastal ecosystems and illustrates the complex interactions of multiple stressors (here: N deposition, S deposition, and climate change) on aquatic ecosystems.
RESUMO
Dynamically downscaled data from two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 from the Max-Planck Institute (MPI), Germany and HadAm3H from the Hadley Centre (HAD), UK, driven with two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (IS92a and A2, respectively) were used to make climate change projections. These projections were then used to drive four effect models linked to assess the effects on hydrology, and nitrogen (N) concentrations and fluxes, in the Bjerkreim river basin (685-km(2)) and its coastal fjord, southwestern Norway. The four effect models were the hydrological model HBV, the water quality models MAGIC, INCA-N and the NIVA FJORD model. The downscaled climate scenarios project a general temperature increase in the study region of approximately 1 degrees C by 2030-2049 (MPI IS92a) and approximately 3 degrees C by 2071-2100 (HAD A2). Both scenarios imply increased winter precipitation, whereas the projections of summer and autumn precipitation are quite different, with the MPI scenario projecting a slight increase and the HAD scenario a significant decrease. As a response to increased winter temperature, the HBV model simulates a dramatic reduction of snow accumulation in the upper parts of the catchment, which in turn lead to higher runoff during winter and lower runoff during snowmelt in the spring. With the HAD scenario, runoff in summer and early autumn is substantially reduced as a result of reduced precipitation, increased temperatures and thereby increased evapotranspiration. The water quality models, MAGIC and INCA-N project no major changes in nitrate (NO(3)(-)) concentrations and fluxes within the MPI scenario, but a significant increase in concentrations and a 40-50% increase in fluxes in the HAD scenario. As a consequence, the acidification of the river could increase, thus offsetting ongoing recovery from acidification due to reductions in acid deposition. Additionally, the increased N loading may stimulate growth of N-limited benthic algae and macrophytes along the river channels and lead to undesirable eutrophication effects in the estuarine area. Simulations made by the FJORD model and the HAD scenario indicate that primary production in the estuary might increase up to 15-20%, based on the climate-induced changes in river flow and nitrate concentrations alone.
