Contrasting adaptive genetic consequences of stream insects under changing climate.

Freshwater biodiversity undergoes degradation due to climate change. Researchers have inferred the effects of climate change on neutral genetic diversity, assuming the fixed spatial distributions of alleles. However, the adaptive genetic evolution of populations that may change the spatial distribution of allele frequencies along environmental gradients (i.e., evolutionary rescue) have largely been overlooked. We developed a modeling approach that projects the comparatively adaptive and neutral genetic diversities of four stream insects, using empirical neutral/ putative adaptive loci, ecological niche models (ENMs), and a distributed hydrological-thermal simulation at a temperate catchment under climate change. The hydrothermal model was used to generate hydraulic and thermal variables (e.g., annual current velocity and water temperature) at the present and the climatic change conditions, projected based on the eight general circulation models and the three representative concentration pathways scenarios for the two future periods (2031-2050, near future; 2081-2100, far future). The hydraulic and thermal variables were used for predictor variables of the ENMs and adaptive genetic modeling based on machine learning approaches. The increases in annual water temperature in the near- (+0.3-0.7 °C) and far-future (+0.4-3.2 °C) were projected. Of the studied species, with different ecologies and habitat ranges, Ephemera japonica (Ephemeroptera) was projected to lose rear-edge habitats (i.e., downstream) but retain the adaptive genetic diversity owing to evolutionary rescue. In contrast, the habitat range of the upstream-dwelling Hydropsyche albicephala (Trichoptera) was found to remarkably decline, resulting in decreases in the watershed genetic diversity. While the other two Trichoptera species expanded their habitat ranges, the genetic structures were homogenized over the watershed and experienced moderate decreases in gamma diversity. The findings emphasize the evolutionary rescue potential, depending on the extent of species-specific local adaptation.

Aquatic insect community structure revealed by eDNA metabarcoding derives indices for environmental assessment.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis provides an efficient and objective approach for monitoring and assessing ecological status; however, studies on the eDNA of aquatic insects, such as Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT), are limited despite its potential as a useful indicator of river health. Here, we investigated the community structures of aquatic insects using eDNA and evaluated the applicability of eDNA data for calculating assessment indices. Field surveys were conducted to sample river water for eDNA at six locations from upstream to downstream of two rivers in Japan in July and November 2016. Simultaneously, aquatic insects were collected using the traditional Surber net survey method. The communities of aquatic insects were revealed using eDNA by targeting the cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene in mitochondrial DNA via metabarcoding analyses. As a result, the eDNA revealed 63 families and 75 genera of aquatic insects, which was double than that detected by the Surber net survey (especially for families in Diptera and Hemiptera). The seasonal differences of communities were distinguished by both the eDNA and Surber net survey data. Furthermore, the total nitrogen concentration, a surrogate of organic pollution, showed positive correlations with biotic environmental assessment indices (i.e., EPT index and Chironomidae index) calculated using eDNA at the genus-level resolution but the indices calculated using the Surber net survey data. Our results demonstrated that eDNA analysis with higher taxonomic resolution can provide as a more sensitive environmental assessment index than the traditional method that requires biotic samples.

The effects of spatial discretization on performances and parameters of urban hydrological model.

Selecting a proper spatial resolution for urban rainfall runoff modeling was not a trivial issue because it could affect the model outputs. Recently, the development of remote sensing technology and increasingly available data source had enabled rainfall runoff process to be modeled at detailed and microscales. However, the models with less complexity might have equally good performance with less model establishment and computation time. This study attempted to explore the impact of model spatial resolution on model performance and parameters. Models with different discretization degree were built up on the basis of actual drainage networks, urban parcels and specific land use. The results showed that there was very little difference in the total runoff volumes while peak flows showed obvious scale effects which could be up to 30%. Generally, model calibration could compensate the scale effect. The calibrated models with different resolution showed similar performances. The consideration of effective impervious area (EIA) as a calibration parameter marginally increased performance of the calibration period but also slightly decreased performance in the validation period which indicated the importance of detailed EIA identification.

Origin of Carbon and Essential Fatty Acids in Higher Trophic Level Fish in Headwater Stream Food Webs.

Dietary carbon sources in headwater stream food webs are divided into allochthonous and autochthonous organic matters. We hypothesized that: 1) the dietary allochthonous contribution for fish in headwater stream food webs positively relate with canopy cover; and 2) essential fatty acids originate from autochthonous organic matter regardless of canopy covers, because essential fatty acids, such as 20:5ω3 and 22:6ω3, are normally absent in allochthonous organic matters. We investigated predatory fish Salvelinus leucomaenis stomach contents in four headwater stream systems, which are located in subarctic region in northern Japan. In addition, stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios, fatty acid profile, and stable carbon isotope ratios of essential fatty acids were analyzed. Bulk stable carbon analysis showed the major contribution of autochthonous sources to assimilated carbon in S. leucomaenis. Surface baits in the stomach had intermediate stable carbon isotope ratios between autochthonous and allochthonous organic matter, indicating aquatic carbon was partly assimilated by surface baits. Stable carbon isotope ratios of essential fatty acids showed a positive relationship between autochthonous sources and S. leucomaenis across four study sites. This study demonstrated that the main supplier of dietary carbon and essential fatty acids was autochthonous organic matter even in headwater stream ecosystems under high canopy cover.

Projection of invertebrate populations in the headwater streams of a temperate catchment under a changing climate.

Climate change places considerable stress on riverine ecosystems by altering flow regimes and increasing water temperature. This study evaluated how water temperature increases under climate change scenarios will affect stream invertebrates in pristine headwater streams. The studied headwater-stream sites were distributed within a temperate catchment of Japan and had similar hydraulic-geographical conditions, but were subject to varying temperature conditions due to altitudinal differences (100 to 850 m). We adopted eight general circulation models (GCMs) to project air temperature under conservative (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP4.5), and extreme climate scenarios (RCP8.5) during the near (2031-2050) and far (2081-2100) future. Using the water temperature of headwater streams computed by a distributed hydrological-thermal model as a predictor variable, we projected the population density of stream invertebrates in the future scenarios based on generalized linear models. The mean decrease in the temporally averaged population density of Plecoptera was 61.3% among the GCMs, even under RCP2.6 in the near future, whereas density deteriorated even further (90.7%) under RCP8.5 in the far future. Trichoptera density was also projected to greatly deteriorate under RCP8.5 in the far future. We defined taxa that exhibited temperature-sensitive declines under climate change as cold stenotherms and found that most Plecoptera taxa were cold stenotherms in comparison to other orders. Specifically, the taxonomic families that only distribute in Palearctic realm (e.g., Megarcys ochracea and Scopura longa) were selectively assigned, suggesting that Plecoptera family with its restricted distribution in the Palearctic might be a sensitive indicator of climate change. Plecoptera and Trichoptera populations in the headwaters are expected/anticipated to decrease over the considerable geographical range of the catchment, even under the RCP2.6 in the near future. Given headwater invertebrates play important roles in streams, such as contributing to watershed productivity, our results provide useful information for managing streams at the catchment-level.

Assessment of future variability in extreme precipitation and the potential effects on the wadi flow regime.

The objective of this study is to investigate how the magnitude and occurrence of extreme precipitation events are affected by climate change and to predict the subsequent impacts on the wadi flow regime in the Al-Khod catchment area, Muscat, Oman. The tank model, a lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model, was used to simulate the wadi flow. Precipitation extremes and their potential future changes were predicted using six-member ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Yearly maxima of the daily precipitation and wadi flow for varying return periods were compared for observed and projected data by fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution function. Flow duration curves (FDC) were developed and compared for the observed and projected wadi flows. The results indicate that extreme precipitation events consistently increase by the middle of the twenty-first century for all return periods (49-52%), but changes may become more profound by the end of the twenty-first century (81-101%). Consequently, the relative change in extreme wadi flow is greater than twofolds for all of the return periods in the late twenty-first century compared to the relative changes that occur in the mid-century period. Precipitation analysis further suggests that greater than 50% of the precipitation may be associated with extreme events in the future. The FDC analysis reveals that changes in low-to-moderate flows (Q60-Q90) may not be statistically significant, whereas increases in high flows (Q5) are statistically robust (20 and 25% for the mid- and late-century periods, respectively).

Adaptive genetic divergence along narrow environmental gradients in four stream insects.

A central question linking ecology with evolutionary biology is how environmental heterogeneity can drive adaptive genetic divergence among populations. We examined adaptive divergence of four stream insects from six adjacent catchments in Japan by combining field measures of habitat and resource components with genome scans of non-neutral Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) loci. Neutral genetic variation was used to measure gene flow and non-neutral genetic variation was used to test for adaptive divergence. We identified the environmental characteristics contributing to divergence by comparing genetic distances at non-neutral loci between sites with Euclidean distances for each of 15 environmental variables. Comparisons were made using partial Mantel tests to control for geographic distance. In all four species, we found strong evidence for non-neutral divergence along environmental gradients at between 6 and 21 loci per species. The relative contribution of these environmental variables to each species' ecological niche was quantified as the specialization index, S, based on ecological data. In each species, the variable most significantly correlated with genetic distance at non-neutral loci was the same variable along which each species was most narrowly distributed (i.e., highest S). These were gradients of elevation (two species), chlorophyll-a, and ammonia-nitrogen. This adaptive divergence occurred in the face of ongoing gene flow (Fst = 0.01-0.04), indicating that selection was strong enough to overcome homogenization at the landscape scale. Our results suggest that adaptive divergence is pronounced, occurs along different environmental gradients for different species, and may consistently occur along the narrowest components of species' niche.

Effects of climate and land use changes on groundwater resources in coastal aquifers.

To estimate the freshwater loss in coastal aquifers due to salinisation, a numerical model based on the sharp interface assumption has been introduced. The developed methodology will be useful in areas where limited hydrological data are available. This model will elaborate on the changes in fresh groundwater loss with respect to climate change, land use pattern and hydrologic soil condition. The aridity index has been introduced to represent the variations in precipitation and temperature. The interesting finding is that the deforestation leads to increase groundwater recharge in arid areas, because deforestation leads to reduce evapotranspiration even though it favors runoff. The combined climate and land use scenarios show that when the aridity index is less than 60, the agricultural lands give higher groundwater recharge than other land use patterns for all hydrologic soil conditions. The calculated recharge was then used to estimate the freshwater-saltwater interface and percentage of freshwater loss due to salinity intrusion. We found that in arid areas, the fresh groundwater loss increases as the percentage of forest cover increases. The combined effects of deforestation and aridity index on fresh groundwater loss show that deforestation causes an increase in the recharge and existing fresh groundwater resource in areas having low precipitation and high temperature (arid climates).