A regionally tailored epidemiological forecast and monitoring program to guide a healthcare system in the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, analytics and predictive models built on regional data provided timely, accurate monitoring of epidemiological behavior, informing critical planning and decision-making for health system leaders. At Atrium Health, a large, integrated healthcare system in the southeastern United States, a team of statisticians and physicians created a comprehensive forecast and monitoring program that leveraged an array of statistical methods. METHODS: The program utilized the following methodological approaches: (i) exploratory graphics, including time plots of epidemiological metrics with smoothers; (ii) infection prevalence forecasting using a Bayesian epidemiological model with time-varying infection rate; (iii) doubling and halving times computed using changepoints in local linear trend; (iv) death monitoring using combination forecasting with an ensemble of models; (v) effective reproduction number estimation with a Bayesian approach; (vi) COVID-19 patients hospital census monitored via time series models; and (vii) quantified forecast performance. RESULTS: A consolidated forecast and monitoring report was produced weekly and proved to be an effective, vital source of information and guidance as the healthcare system navigated the inherent uncertainty of the pandemic. Forecasts provided accurate and precise information that informed critical decisions on resource planning, bed capacity and staffing management, and infection prevention strategies. CONCLUSIONS: In this paper, we have presented the framework used in our epidemiological forecast and monitoring program at Atrium Health, as well as provided recommendations for implementation by other healthcare systems and institutions to facilitate use in future pandemics.

Is Active Surveillance Too Active?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Many prostate cancer active surveillance protocols mandate serial monitoring at defined intervals, including but certainly not limited to serum PSA (often every 6 months), clinic visits, prostate multiparametric MRI, and repeat prostate biopsies. The purpose of this article is to evaluate whether current protocols result in excessive testing of patients on active surveillance. RECENT FINDINGS: Multiple studies have been published in the past several years evaluating the utility of multiparametric MRI, serum biomarkers, and serial prostate biopsy for men on active surveillance. While MRI and serum biomarkers have promise with risk stratification, no studies have demonstrated that periodic prostate biopsy can be safely omitted in active surveillance. Active surveillance for prostate cancer is too active for some men with seemingly low-risk cancer. The use of multiple prostate MRIs or additional biomarkers do not always add to the prediction of higher-grade disease on surveillance biopsy.

Prognostic value of galectin-1 and galectin-3 expression in localized urothelial bladder cancer.

Background: Galectin-1 (Gal-1) and Galectin-3 (Gal-3) are carbohydrate binding proteins with a wide range of biological activity, including regulation of cellular adhesion, proliferation, and apoptosis in solid tumors. Prior small studies have reported that Gal-3 expression is associated with progression of disease in urothelial carcinoma (UC), from non-muscle invasive UC progression to muscle invasive UC. We assessed Gal-1 and Gal-3 protein expression H-score utilizing a tissue microarray (TMA) created from 301 cystectomy specimens. Methods: Immunohistochemistry for Gal-1 and Gal-3 was performed on TMA generated from tumor blocks from chemotherapy naïve cystectomy specimens. The variable of interest, H-score, was defined as the product of the percentage of cells staining positive (0-100) and intensity score (0-3) scored by a single pathologist. Survival end points were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox Proportional Hazards methods. Clinical data including Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), pathologic tumor (T) stage, tumor size, node stage, and surgical margins, were included in multivariable analysis. Results: We found that Gal-1 and Gal-3 expression correlated with intratumoral T stage (median Gal-1 H-score was 0 across non-invasive tissue types and 200 in invasive, P<0.01 and median Gal-3 score was 270 across non-invasive tissue types and 70 in invasive, P<0.01). However, the highest intratumoral H-score per cystectomy core did not independently predict for recurrence-free survival (RFS) (Gal-1: HR =1.02, P=0.44, Gal-3: HR =1.01, P=0.65) or OS (Gal-1: HR =1.02, P=0.44, Gal-3: HR =1.01, P=0.72) in this cohort. Significant intratumoral heterogeneity was present for both Gal-1 and Gal-3, with an average difference between the highest and lowest H score was 95 for Gal-1 and 109 for Gal-3 for cystectomy specimens with more than one biopsy. Conclusions: Gal-1 and Gal-3 H-score per bladder did not independently predict for RFS or OS. Intra-tumoral Gal-1/Gal-3 heterogeneity complicates the use of Gal-1 and Gal-3 expression as a prognostic biomarker. Future studies should consider the evaluation of serum and urinary galectins as an approach to mitigate tumor heterogeneity.

Systematic review of reported association studies of monogenic genes and bladder cancer risk and confirmation analysis in a large population cohort.

Objectives: To evaluate which of previously reported monogenic genes are associated with increased bladder cancer risk, we reviewed published papers on associations of genes and bladder cancer risk and performed a confirmation study of these genes in a large population-based cohort. Subjects and methods: A systematic review of published papers prior to June 2022 was performed first to identify all genes where germline mutations were associated with bladder cancer risk. The associations of these candidate genes with bladder cancer risk were then tested among 1695 bladder cancer cases and 186 271 controls in the UK Biobank (UKB). The robust SKAT-O, a gene-based analysis that properly controls for type I error rates due to unbalanced case-control ratio, was used for association tests adjusting for age at recruitment, gender, smoking status, and genetic background. Results: The systematic review identified nine genes that were significantly associated with bladder cancer risk in at least one study (p < 0.05), including MUTYH, MSH2, MSH6, MLH1, ATM, BRCA2, ERCC5, TGFB1 and CHEK2. When pathogenic/likely pathogenic mutations were aggregated within each gene, the association was confirmed for three genes in the UKB at p < 0.0056 (Bonferroni correction for nine tests), including CHEK2, ATM and BRCA2, all also known to be associated with hereditary breast cancer. Suggestive evidence of association was found for two other genes, including MLH1 (p = 0.006) and MSH2 (p = 0.007), both known to be associated with Lynch syndrome. Among these five genes, the bladder cancer risks range from 1.60 (ATM) to 4.88 (MLH1), and mutation carrier rates in cases range from 0.06% (MSH2) to 2.01% (CHEK2). Conclusion: This study provides statistical evidence for association of previously reported genes and bladder cancer risk and has clinical utility for risk assessment and genetic counselling.

Moving Prostate Cancer Polygenic Risk Scores from Research Towards Clinical Practice.

Recent advances in our understanding of genetic factors that contribute to prostate cancer (PCa) susceptibility have the potential to improve disease screening, diagnosis, and treatment. Genetic risk scores in particular can more accurately inform patients of their risk of being diagnosed with PCa, which may help in decisions on whether to undergo prostate-specific antigen screening or prostate biopsy. Genetic information may also be useful in helping patients understand the etiology of their PCa and whether their family members should undergo more intensive screening. PATIENT SUMMARY: This mini review discusses recent advances in our understanding of how genetic factors influence a man's risk of developing prostate cancer. This information has the potential to improve screening, diagnosis, and patient counseling following a diagnosis of prostate cancer.

Racial and Socioeconomic Disparities in MRI-Fusion Biopsy Utilization to Assess for Prostate Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether racial disparities in MRI-Bx usage persisted after correction for socioeconomic, demographic, and clinical factors. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of patients who received either MRI-Bx or systematic biopsy (SB) within a single academic medical center between January 2018 - June 2020. For each patient, socioeconomic variables including household income, education, percent below poverty, and unemployment were estimated using 2015 American Community Survey census-tract level data. Chi-square analysis was used to examine differences in clinical and demographic characteristics between the two groups. The Benjamini-Hochberg procedure was used to control false discovery rate (FDR) for multiple testing. RESULTS: Eighteen percent of Black men (53/295) received MRI-Bx while 41% (228/561) of white men received MRI-Bx. Patients coming from highly impoverished areas were less likely to receive MRI-Bx, 25% vs 75%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, race remained significantly different across MRI-Bx and SB groups. Clinical factors including family history, DRE, BMI, and prostate volume were not significantly different between patients receiving MRI-Bx and SB. CONCLUSION: Black men are less likely to receive MRI-Bx than white men, even after adjusting for clinical and socioeconomic characteristics. Further work is necessary to identify and study methods to increase equity in PCa diagnostic testing.

Genomic analysis of response to bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) treatment in high-grade stage 1 bladder cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) therapy is standard treatment for high-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) but overall efficacy is low, and no reliable predictive biomarkers currently exist to refine patient selection. We performed genomic analysis on high-grade (HG) T1 NMIBCs to determine if response to therapy is predicted by certain mutational and/or expressional changes. METHODS: Patients with HG T1 NMIBC treated with induction BCG were stratified by response into durable and non-durable responders. Baseline tumor samples were subjected to targeted DNA sequencing and whole-exome RNAseq. Genomic variants differing significantly between response groups were analyzed using Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA) software. Variant selection was refined to target potential biomarker candidates for responsiveness to BCG. RESULTS: Among 42 patients, the median follow-up was 51.7 months and 40.5% (n=17) were durable BCG responders. Deleterious mutations in the RNA sequence of JCHAIN, S100A7, CLEC2B, and ANXA10 were more common in non-durable responders. Mutations in MCL1 and MSH6 detected on targeted sequencing were more commonly found in durable responders. Of all deleterious DNA and RNA mutations identified, only MCL1 was significantly associated with longer recurrence free survival (RFS) (P=0.031). CONCLUSIONS: Differences in the genomic profiles of HG T1 NMIBC tumors exist between those who show durable response to BCG and those who do not. Using pathway analysis, those differences imply upregulation of several interconnected inflammatory pathways among responders. Specific variants identified here, namely MCL1, are candidates for further study and, if clinically validated, may serve as useful biomarkers in the future.

Racial Disparities in Prostate Specific Antigen Screening and Referral to Urology in a Large, Integrated Health Care System: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: Contemporary trends and racial disparities in prostate cancer screening and referral to urology for prostate cancer risk are not well characterized, despite consensus that Black men are at higher risk for poor prostate cancer outcomes. The objective of this study was to characterize current racial disparities in prostate cancer screening and referral from primary care to urology for prostate cancer concern within our large, integrated health care system. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used data from Atrium Health's enterprise data warehouse, which includes patient information from more than 900 care locations across North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia. We included all men seen in the ambulatory or outpatient setting between 2014 and 2019 who were ≥40 years old. Clinical and demographic data were collected for all men, including age and race. Racial outcomes were reported for all groups with >2% representation in the population. Between-group comparisons were determined using chi-squared analysis, Wilcoxon rank sum testing and multivariable logistic regression, with significance defined as p <0.05. RESULTS: We observed a significant decrease in prostate specific antigen testing across all age and racial groups in a cohort of 606,985 men at Atrium Health, including 87,189 Black men, with an overall relative decline of 56%. As compared to White men, Black men were more likely to undergo prostate specific antigen testing (adjusted OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.22-1.26) and be referred to urology for prostate cancer (adjusted OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.75-2.16). CONCLUSIONS: There was a continued significant decline in prostate cancer screening between 2014 and 2019. Despite having modestly elevated odds of being screened for prostate cancer compared to White men, Black men are relatively underscreened when considering that those who undergo prostate specific antigen screening are more likely to be referred by primary care to urology for additional prostate cancer diagnostic evaluation.

Clinical Utility of Postneoadjuvant Chemotherapy Computerized Tomography for Muscle Invasive Urothelial Bladder Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: For muscle invasive bladder cancer, computerized tomography scans are often used before cystectomy to optimize surgical decision planning. The aim of this study is to evaluate the clinical value of postneoadjuvant chemotherapy computerized tomography in patients with localized bladder cancer before cystectomy. METHODS: All T2-3N0 patients with urothelial bladder cancer who completed cisplatin based neoadjuvant chemotherapy were retrospectively analyzed. On postneoadjuvant chemotherapy computerized tomography patients with tumor progression, nodal involvement, metastatic disease and noncancer findings were determined, and subsequent surgical decision making was evaluated. RESULTS: Of 79 cases 21.5% had a new finding on postneoadjuvant chemotherapy scan of which false-positive rates for nodal and metastatic disease were 100%. The frequency of novel findings on postneoadjuvant computerized tomography were 4 (5.1%) with tumor progression, 6 (7.6%) newly discovered enlarged nodes, 8 (10.1%) suspicious for distant metastases and 3 (3.8%) noncancer related conditions. Only 3.8% (3) had alterations in original cystectomy plans exclusively due to tumor progression and 100% of the cohort underwent cystectomy. Overall survival was not associated with new findings (3-year OS 77.4% vs 74%, p=0.473). Median time from postneoadjuvant chemotherapy scan to cystectomy was statistically delayed for patients with new radiographic findings vs those with consistent preneoadjuvant chemotherapy scans (29.5 vs 51 days; p=0.014). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the preneoadjuvant chemotherapy scans, our data suggests that postneoadjuvant chemotherapy computerized tomography scans discover new findings in approximately 21.5% of cases, but this rarely changes preoperative plans, is not associated with overall survival and is frequently associated with false-positive results.

Association of 5-Alpha Reductase Inhibitor Use with Prostate Specific Antigen Level at the Time of Urology Referral in a Retrospective Cohort at a Large, Integrated Health Care System.

INTRODUCTION: 5-Alpha reductase inhibitor (5-ARI) use leads to a 50% decline in serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) without a concomitant decrease in prostate cancer (PCa) risk. We hypothesize that failure to account for the effect of 5-ARI use on serum PSA leads to increased PCa risk at urology referral among 5-ARI users. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study for the years 2018-2019. Atrium Health is a large, vertically integrated health system with over 900 care locations in North Carolina and South Carolina. Men ≥40 years old during 2018-2019 who had a PSA test performed were included. We determined differences in corrected serum PSA level at the time of referral to urology. 5-ARI users and nonusers were compared using the chi-square test, Student's t-test and gamma regression. RESULTS: From 2018-2019, there were 91,368 men who underwent PSA testing, including 2,939 5-ARI users. At referral, 5-ARI users had similar uncorrected median PSA (5.8 vs 5.6 ng/ml, p=0.05). After correcting for the effect of 5-ARIs on PSA, 5-ARI users had a median PSA of 11.6 ng/ml at urology referral, compared to 5.6 ng/ml in nonusers. CONCLUSIONS: Men taking 5-ARIs have higher corrected serum PSA at time of referral to urology. As the unadjusted PSA at referral to urology for PCa risk was similar between 5-ARI users and nonusers, this indicates that the effect of 5-ARI use on serum PSA levels is not routinely accounted for when assessing PCa risk.

Epidemiology and survival outcome of adult kidney, bladder, and prostate rhabdomyosarcoma: A SEER database analysis.

Rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) is rare in adulthood, accounting for 2%-5% of adult soft tissue tumors, and less than 20% occur in genitourinary organs. Given its rarity, survival data on adult kidney, bladder, and prostate RMSs is limited. In this population-based analysis, we performed an analysis of all adult RMS cases reported in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to understand prognostic factors among kidney, bladder, and prostate RMS. A query of the SEER database was performed from 1973 to 2016 for patients >18 of age with RMS. The final cohort consisted of 14 kidney, 35 bladder, and 21 prostate RMS cases in the adult population. Demographic, treatment, and survival data were obtained. Analysis was performed using Fisher's exact test, survival analysis, and model. The median (range) age of diagnosis for adult bladder RMS was 65 years old (19-84) compared to 52.5 (28-68) and 42 (19-87) for kidney and prostate (p = 0.007). About 78.6% of patients underwent surgical intervention. Five-year overall survival (OS) for adult kidney, bladder, and prostate RMS are 17.1% (2.9-41.6%), 22.2% (9.4-38.4%), and 33.0 (12.8-55.0%), respectively. OS was not statistically associated with primary site (p = 0.209). On multivariable analysis, compared to adult bladder RMS, kidney RMS had a higher incidence of mortality (HR: 2.16, 95% CI 1.03-4.53, p = 0.041). Incidence of mortality from prostate RMS was not significantly different from bladder RMS (HR: 0.70, 95% CI 0.30-1.65, p = 0.411). Extent of disease (HR: 5.17, 95% CI 2.09-12.79, p < 0.001) and older age (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.04, p = 0.002) were adverse prognostic factors for OS. Overall survival at 5 years for adult kidney, bladder, and prostate RMS is poor. Localized disease and younger age are prognostic factors for improved outcomes in adult RMS. Hence, early diagnosis and intervention appear paramount to improved survival for this rare malignancy in adulthood.

The development and comparative effectiveness of a patient-centered prostate biopsy report: a prospective, randomized study.

PURPOSE: The prostate biopsy pathology report represents a critical document used for decision-making in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer, yet the content exceeds the health literacy of most patients. We sought to create and compare the effectiveness of a patient-centered prostate biopsy report compared with standard reports. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using a modified Delphi approach, prostate cancer experts identified critical components of a prostate biopsy report. Patient focus groups provided input for syntax and formatting of patient-centered pathology reports. Ninety-four patients with recent prostate biopsies were block randomized to the standard report with or without the patient-centered report. We evaluated patient activation, self-efficacy, provider communication skills, and prostate cancer knowledge. RESULTS: Experts selected primary and secondary Gleason score and the number of positive scores as the most important elements of the report. Patients prioritized a narrative design, non-threatening language and information on risk classification. Initial assessments were completed by 87% (40/46) in the standard report group and 81% (39/48) in the patient-centered report group. There were no differences in patient activation, self-efficacy, or provider communication skills between groups. Patients who received the patient-centered report had significantly improved ability to recall their Gleason score (100% vs. 85%, p = 0.026) and number of positive cores (90% vs. 65%, p = 0.014). In total, 86% of patients who received the patient-centered report felt that it helped them better understand their results and should always be provided. CONCLUSIONS: Patient-centered pathology reports are associated with significantly higher knowledge about a prostate cancer diagnosis. These important health information documents may improve patient-provider communication and help facilitate shared decision-making among patients diagnosed with prostate cancer.

Pathologic Nodal Involvement in Patients With Penile Cancer With Cavernosal Versus Spongiosal Involvement.

BACKGROUND: The American Joint Committee on Cancer recently proposed new TNM staging for penile cancer, with proposed T2 as spongiosal invasion and T3 as cavernosal invasion. We sought to validate the proposed staging system for predicting pathologic nodal involvement using the National Cancer Data Base. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Invasive penile cancer cases from 2010 to 2012 were identified. Differences in demographic and pathologic factors between T2 and T3 tumors were compared using χ2 and t tests. Logistic regression was performed to determine the odds of pathologically involved lymph nodes (pN+) by T classification. RESULTS: There were 378 T2 and 524 T3 patients with penile cancer. Compared with T2 tumors, T3 tumors were larger (mean size, 5.8 cm vs. 4.3 cm), had higher positive surgical margin rates (12% vs. 9%), and were more likely to have lymphovascular invasion (42% vs. 31%) (all P < .05). In multivariable analysis, both T2 (odds ratio [OR], 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-3.3) and T3 (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.4-3.6) remained significantly associated with risk of positive lymph nodes compared with T1 disease, but there was no increase in risk between T2 and T3 disease (OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.7-1.8; P = .56). CONCLUSION: The proposed new American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system for the penile cancer distinguishes spongiosal (T2) from cavernosal (T3) involvement. There does not appear to be a difference in positive lymph node status between the 2 grades when other clinical and pathologic variables are considered.

Continued 5α-Reductase Inhibitor Use after Prostate Cancer Diagnosis and the Risk of Reclassification and Adverse Pathological Outcomes in the PASS.

PURPOSE: Outcomes in patients who enroll in active surveillance programs for prostate cancer while receiving 5α-reductase inhibitors have not been well defined. We sought to determine the association of 5α-reductase inhibitor use with the risk of reclassification in the PASS (Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Participants in the multicenter PASS were enrolled between 2008 and 2016. Study inclusion criteria were current or never 5α-reductase inhibitors use, Gleason score 3 + 4 or less prostate cancer at diagnosis, less than a 34% core involvement ratio at diagnosis and 1 or more surveillance biopsies. Included in study were 1,009 men, including 107 on 5α-reductase inhibitors and 902 who had never received 5α-reductase inhibitors. Reclassification was defined as increase in the Gleason score and/or an increase to 34% or greater in the ratio of biopsy cores positive for cancer. Adverse pathology at prostatectomy was defined as Gleason 4 + 3 or greater and/or nonorgan confined disease (pT3 or N1). RESULTS: On multivariable analysis there was no difference in reclassification between men who had received and those who had never received 5α-reductase inhibitors (HR 0.81, p = 0.31). Patients who had received 5α-reductase inhibitors were less likely to undergo radical prostatectomy (8% vs 18%, p = 0.01) or any definitive treatment (19% vs 24%, p = 0.04). In the 167 participants who underwent radical prostatectomy there was no suggestion of a difference in the rate of adverse pathology findings at prostatectomy between 5α-reductase inhibitor users and nonusers. CONCLUSIONS: Continued 5α-reductase inhibitor use after an initial diagnosis of prostate cancer was not associated with the risk of reclassification on active surveillance in men in the PASS cohort.

Improving the Specificity of PSA Screening with Serum and Urine Markers.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Prostate cancer remains a significant public health burden. In order to decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with prostate cancer, serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening has been used since the 1990s. However, there is concern for overdiagnosis of prostate cancer with widespread PSA screening, which could lead to overtreatment and its attendant morbidities. RECENT FINDINGS: In order to avoid unnecessary biopsy and downstream effects including treatment of insignificant prostate cancer, a number of tests have been proposed to improve upon PSA screening. Increasing the specificity of prostate cancer screening above that of PSA testing should reduce the incidence of unnecessary prostate biopsy. However, an increase in specificity is associated with a decrease in sensitivity, so these tests must be balanced with the concern for missing the diagnosis of potentially significant disease. In this context, we present a review of six common biomarkers proposed to improve the specificity of prostate cancer screening-free PSA, prostate health index, 4Kscore, PCA3, Select MDx, and ExoDx Prostate(Intelliscore).

PSA screening, prostate biopsy, and treatment of prostate cancer in the years surrounding the USPSTF recommendation against prostate cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: The 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force recommendation against screening for prostate cancer has impacted rates of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening and appears to be associated with declining prostate cancer incidence. Our objective was to characterize health care utilization that may explain these observed trends. METHODS: MarketScan claims, which capture >30 million privately insured patients in the United States, were queried for all men aged 40-64 years for the years 2008-2014. PSA testing, prostate biopsy, prostate cancer diagnosis, and definitive local treatment were determined using associated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision and Current Procedural Terminology, Fourth Edition codes. RESULTS: There were approximately 6 million qualifying men with a full year of data. PSA testing, prostate biopsy, and prostate cancer detection declined significantly between 2009 and 2014, most notably after 2011. The prostate biopsy rate per 100 patients with a PSA test decreased over the study period from 1.95 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.92-1.97) to 1.52 (95% CI, 1.50-1.54). Prostate cancer incidence per prostate biopsy increased over the study period from 0.36 (95% CI, 0.35-0.36) to 0.39 (95% CI, 0.39-0.40). Of new prostate cancer diagnoses, the proportion managed with definitive local treatment decreased from 69% (95% CI, 69%-70%) to 54% (95% CI, 53%-55%). Both PSA testing and prostate cancer incidence decreased significantly after 2011 (P < .001). CONCLUSION: In a large cohort of privately insured men, PSA testing, prostate biopsy, prostate cancer incidence, and local definitive treatment for prostate cancer decreased between 2008 and 2014, most notably after 2011. This decrease may be driven by differential referral patterns from primary care providers to urologists. Cancer 2018;124:2733-2739. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Refined Analysis of Prostate-specific Antigen Kinetics to Predict Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: For men on active surveillance for prostate cancer, utility of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) kinetics (PSAk) in predicting pathologic reclassification remains controversial. OBJECTIVE: To develop prediction methods for utilizing serial PSA and evaluate frequency of collection. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were collected from men enrolled in the multicenter Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study, for whom PSA data were measured and biopsies performed on prespecified schedules. We developed a PSAk parameter based on a linear mixed-effect model (LMEM) that accounted for serial PSA levels. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The association of diagnostic PSA and/or PSAk with time to reclassification (increase in cancer grade and/or volume) was evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: A total of 851 men met the study criteria; 255 (30%) had a reclassification event within 5 yr. Median follow-up was 3.7 yr. After adjusting for prostate size, time since diagnosis, biopsy parameters, and diagnostic PSA, PSAk was a significant predictor of reclassification (hazard ratio for each 0.10 increase in PSAk=1.6 [95% confidence interval 1.2-2.1, p<0.001]). The PSAk model improved stratification of risk prediction for the top and bottom deciles of risk over a model without PSAk. Model performance was essentially identical using PSA data measured every 6 mo to those measured every 3 mo. The major limitation is the reliability of reclassification as an end point, although it drives most treatment decisions. CONCLUSIONS: PSAk calculated using an LMEM statistically significantly predicts biopsy reclassification. Models that use repeat PSA measurements outperform a model incorporating only diagnostic PSA. Model performance is similar using PSA assessed every 3 or 6 mo. If validated, these results should inform optimal incorporation of PSA trends into active surveillance protocols and risk calculators. PATIENT SUMMARY: In this report, we looked at whether repeat prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurements, or PSA kinetics, improve prediction of biopsy outcomes in men using active surveillance to manage localized prostate cancer. We found that in a large multicenter active surveillance cohort, PSA kinetics improves the prediction of surveillance biopsy outcome.

Role of Surveillance Biopsy with No Cancer as a Prognostic Marker for Reclassification: Results from the Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study.

BACKGROUND: Many patients who are on active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer will have surveillance prostate needle biopsies (PNBs) without any cancer evident. OBJECTIVE: To define the association between negative surveillance PNBs and risk of reclassification on AS. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: All men were enrolled in the Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study (PASS) between 2008 and 2016. Men were included if they had Gleason ≤3+4 prostate cancer and <34% core involvement ratio at diagnosis. Men were prescribed surveillance PNBs at 12 and 24 mo after diagnosis and then every 24 mo. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Reclassification was defined as an increase in Gleason grade and/or an increase in the ratio of biopsy cores to cancer to ≥34%. PNB outcomes were defined as follows: (1) no cancer on biopsy, (2) cancer without reclassification, or (3) reclassification. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models were performed to assess the risk of reclassification. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: A total of 657 men met inclusion criteria. On first surveillance PNB, 214 (32%) had no cancer, 282 (43%) had cancer but no reclassification, and 161 (25%) reclassified. Among those who did not reclassify, 313 had a second PNB. On second PNB, 120 (38%) had no cancer, 139 (44%) had cancer but no reclassification, and 54 (17%) reclassified. In a multivariable analysis, significant predictors of decreased future reclassification after the first PNB were no cancer on PNB (hazard ratio [HR]=0.50, p=0.008), lower serum prostate-specific antigen, larger prostate size, and lower body mass index. A finding of no cancer on the second PNB was also associated with significantly decreased future reclassification in a multivariable analysis (HR=0.15, p=0.003), regardless of the first PNB result. The major limitation of this study is a relatively small number of patients with long-term follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Men who have a surveillance PNB with no evidence of cancer are significantly less likely to reclassify on AS in the PASS cohort. These findings have implications for tailoring AS protocols. PATIENT SUMMARY: Men on active surveillance for prostate cancer who have a biopsy showing no cancer are at a decreased risk of having worse disease in the future. This may have an impact on how frequently biopsies are required to be performed in the future.