Disentangling the impact of Atlantic Niño on sea-air CO2 flux.

Atlantic Niño is a major tropical interannual climate variability mode of the sea surface temperature (SST) that occurs during boreal summer and shares many similarities with the tropical Pacific El Niño. Although the tropical Atlantic is an important source of CO2 to the atmosphere, the impact of Atlantic Niño on the sea-air CO2 exchange is not well understood. Here we show that the Atlantic Niño enhances (weakens) CO2 outgassing in the central (western) tropical Atlantic. In the western basin, freshwater-induced changes in surface salinity, which considerably modulate the surface ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), are the primary driver for the observed CO2 flux variations. In contrast, pCO2 anomalies in the central basin are dominated by the SST-driven solubility change. This multi-variable mechanism for pCO2 anomaly differs remarkably from the Pacific where the response is predominantly controlled by upwelling-induced dissolved inorganic carbon anomalies. The contrasting behavior is characterized by the high CO2 buffering capacity in the Atlantic, where the subsurface water mass contains higher alkalinity than in the Pacific.

Diabatic heating governs the seasonality of the Atlantic Niño.

The Atlantic Niño is the leading mode of interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the equatorial Atlantic and assumed to be largely governed by coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics described by the Bjerknes-feedback loop. However, the role of the atmospheric diabatic heating, which can be either an indicator of the atmosphere's response to, or its influence on the SST, is poorly understood. Here, using satellite-era observations from 1982-2015, we show that diabatic heating variability associated with the seasonal migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone controls the seasonality of the Atlantic Niño. The variability in precipitation, a measure of vertically integrated diabatic heating, leads that in SST, whereas the atmospheric response to SST variability is relatively weak. Our findings imply that the oceanic impact on the atmosphere is smaller than previously thought, questioning the relevance of the classical Bjerknes-feedback loop for the Atlantic Niño and limiting climate predictability over the equatorial Atlantic sector.

Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock.

Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is understood that a major source of multi-year predictability resides in the ocean. Here we show the first highly skilful long-term predictions of the commercially valuable Barents Sea cod stock. The 7-year predictions are based on the propagation of ocean temperature anomalies from the subpolar North Atlantic toward the Barents Sea, and the strong co-variability between these temperature anomalies and the cod stock. Retrospective predictions for the period 1957-2017 capture well multi-year to decadal variations in cod stock biomass, with cross-validated explained variance of over 60%. For lead times longer than one year the statistical long-term predictions show more skill than operational short-term predictions used in fisheries management and lagged persistence forecasts. Our results thus demonstrate the potential for ecosystem-based fisheries management, which could enable strategic planning on longer time scales. Future predictions show a gradual decline in the cod stock towards 2024.

Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15875.

Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean.

It is commonly understood that a potential for skillful climate prediction resides in the ocean. It nevertheless remains unresolved to what extent variable ocean heat is imprinted on the atmosphere to realize its predictive potential over land. Here we assess from observations whether anomalous heat in the Gulf Stream's northern extension provides predictability of northwestern European and Arctic climate. We show that variations in ocean temperature in the high latitude North Atlantic and Nordic Seas are reflected in the climate of northwestern Europe and in winter Arctic sea ice extent. Statistical regression models show that a significant part of northern climate variability thus can be skillfully predicted up to a decade in advance based on the state of the ocean. Particularly, we predict that Norwegian air temperature will decrease over the coming years, although staying above the long-term (1981-2010) average. Winter Arctic sea ice extent will remain low but with a general increase towards 2020.

Thermodynamic controls of the Atlantic Niño.

Prevailing theories on the equatorial Atlantic Niño are based on the dynamical interaction between atmosphere and ocean. However, dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere models poorly simulate and predict equatorial Atlantic climate variability. Here we use multi-model numerical experiments to show that thermodynamic feedbacks excited by stochastic atmospheric perturbations can generate Atlantic Niño s.d. of ∼0.28±0.07 K, explaining ∼68±23% of the observed interannual variability. Thus, in state-of-the-art coupled models, Atlantic Niño variability strongly depends on the thermodynamic component (R(2)=0.92). Coupled dynamics acts to improve the characteristic Niño-like spatial structure but not necessarily the variance. Perturbations of the equatorial Atlantic trade winds (∼±1.53 m s(-1)) can drive changes in surface latent heat flux (∼±14.35 W m(-2)) and thus in surface temperature consistent with a first-order autoregressive process. By challenging the dynamical paradigm of equatorial Atlantic variability, our findings suggest that the current theories on its modelling and predictability must be revised.