Attending to the Positive: A Retrospective Validation of the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors-Sexual Offence Version.

Sexual recidivism risk assessment tools focus almost exclusively on risk factors associated with increased rates of recidivism and do not attend to protective factors that might mitigate reoffense risk. The present study investigated the predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors - Sexual Offence version (SAPROF-SO), developed to assess hypothesised protective factors against sexual recidivism in adult males. The SAPROF-SO pilot version contains 24 items across two domains: Personal and Professionally Provided Support. SAPROF-SO scores were rated retrospectively from a review of archived case files of 210 men with convictions for child sexual offenses, using the SAPROF-SO pilot manual and a supplementary retrospective scoring guide developed for the current study. SAPROF-SO Total and Personal domain scores were significantly predictive of sexual recidivism after an average follow-up period of 12.24 years (AUC = .81), and to a lesser extent, violent and general recidivism. SAPROF-SO Total and Personal scores additionally provided significant incremental validity over Static-99R scores in the prediction of sexual recidivism. Results support the predictive validity of protective factors for reduced sexual recidivism and invite future research examining how to integrate the SAPROF-SO alongside contemporary sexual recidivism risk assessment tools.

Do Sanctions Affect Undetected Sexual Offending?

Undetected sexual offending creates challenges for risk assessment since estimated sexual recidivism rates are based on documented charges or convictions. Courts and other stakeholders may be primarily interested in the true risk for sexual reoffense and not simply risk for detected sexual offenses. Attempts to study and quantify the rate of undetected sexual offending have resulted in a wide variety of estimates. In this study, we explore whether sanctions imposed for detected sexual offenses increase the detection rate of subsequent offenses, and thereby suppress undetected sexual offending in an exceptionally high-risk sample who were ultimately committed as Sexually Violent Persons. Results indicate the detection rate of sexual offenses increased following an initial sanction, subsequently decreasing the proportion of undetected to detected offending. This effect only occurred after the first sanction. Overall, the sample had a high detection rate and spent little time in the community before subsequent arrests. These results differ from other reports that high rates of sexual offenses go undetected.

Estimating Lifetime and Residual Risk for Individuals Who Remain Sexual Offense Free in the Community: Practical Applications.

Although individuals with a history of sexual crime are often viewed as a lifelong risk, recent research has drawn attention to consistent declines in recidivism risk for those who remain offense free in the community. Because these declines are predictable, this article demonstrates how evaluators can use the amount of time individuals have remained offense free to (a) extrapolate to lifetime recidivism rates from rates observed for shorter time periods, (b) estimate the risk of sexual recidivism for individuals whose current offense is nonsexual but who have a history of sexual offending, and (c) calculate yearly reductions in risk for individuals who remain offense free in the community. In addition to their practical utility for case-specific decision making, these estimates also provide researchers an objective, empirical method of quantifying the extent to which individuals have desisted from sexual crime.

How Do Professionals Assess Sexual Recidivism Risk? An Updated Survey of Practices.

Forensic evaluators may be assisted by comparing their use of instruments with that of their peers. This article reports the results of a 2017 survey of instrument use by forensic evaluators carrying out sexual recidivism risk assessments. Results are compared with a similar survey carried out in 2013. Analysis focuses primarily on adoption of more recently developed instruments and norms, and on assessment of criminogenic needs and protective factors, and secondarily, on exploring factors related to differences in evaluator practice. Findings indicate that most evaluators have now adopted modern actuarial instruments, with the Static-99R and Static-2002R being the most commonly used. Assessment of criminogenic needs is now common, with the STABLE-2007 being the most frequently used instrument. Evaluators are also increasingly likely to consider protective factors. While a majority of evaluators uses actuarial instruments, a substantial minority employs Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) instruments. Few factors discriminated patterns of instrument use.

The 2015 Static-99R: Alternative Recidivism Tables for High-Risk Offenders.

The Static-99R is an actuarial scale that is commonly used to assess the recidivism risk of male sex offenders. Hanson, Thornton, Helmus, and Babchishin recently revised the Static-99R norms based on revised analyses that excluded the large Bridgewater sample. As a result, the sample size of the high risk/high need (HR/HN) group was reduced substantially, which increased the confidence intervals around the predicted recidivism rates. This study provides alternative 5- and 10-year recidivism rates based on logistic regression analyses of the entire 2009 Static-99R HR/HN group that includes the Bridgewater sample. These rates fit the observed 2009 data well and have smaller confidence intervals. We propose that using alternative sexual recidivism rates from the 2009 HR/HN group is a viable option for assessing sexually violent person (SVP) and other high-risk offenders.