Exploring the Nature of Arhopalus ferus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae: Spondylidinae) Pheromone Attraction.

Cerambycid species of the Spondylidinae subfamily are distributed worldwide and are known for being prolific invaders that infest conifers. In New Zealand, Arhopalus ferus (Mulsant), the burnt pine longhorn beetle, is well-established and requires monitoring at high-risk sites such as ports, airports, and sawmills as part of the requirements to meet pine log export standards set by the New Zealand Ministry of Primary Industries (MPI). Currently, its surveillance relies on traps baited with host volatiles (i.e., ethanol and α-pinene). We used volatile collections from adult beetles, electroantennograms, and field trapping bioassays to identify the pheromones emitted by the burnt pine longhorn beetle A. ferus and their effects on its behaviour. We show that A. ferus males emit mainly (E)-fuscumol and geranylacetone, as well as the minor components, α-terpinene and p-mentha-1,3,8-triene, and that all four compounds elicit a dose-dependent response in antennae of both sexes. Traps baited with the binary combination of geranylacetone plus fuscumol captured significantly more female A. ferus than did unbaited traps in two of three field experiments. α-Terpinene did not affect A. ferus trap catches and effects of p-mentha-1,3,8-triene on trap catch were not determined. Our findings provide further evidence of the use of fuscumol and geranylacetone as aggregation-sex pheromones by longhorn beetles in the Spondylidinae subfamily, and suggest that their deployment in survey traps may improve the efficacy of A. ferus monitoring in New Zealand and elsewhere.

Sleeping Safe and Sound: A Multidisciplinary Hospital-wide Infant Safe Sleep Quality Improvement Initiative.

INTRODUCTION: Promoting safe sleep to decrease sudden unexpected infant death is challenging in the hospital setting. LOCAL PROBLEM: Concern for adherence to safe sleep practice across inpatient units at a large pediatric hospital. METHODS: Used quality improvement methodologies to promote safe sleep across all units. INTERVENTIONS: Development of a multidisciplinary expert group, hospital-wide guidelines, targeted interventions, and bedside audits to track progress. RESULTS: Adherence to safe sleep practices improved from 9% to 53%. Objects in the crib were a major barrier to maintaining a safe sleep environment. Safe sleep practices were less likely to be observed in infants with increased medical complexity (p = .027). CONCLUSIONS: Quality improvement methodology improved adherence to infant safe sleep guidelines across multiple units. Medically complex infants continue to be a challenge to safe sleep. Therefore, ongoing education for staff and further research into best practices for the most complex infant populations are necessary.

Impact of Distinct Anti-Androgen Exposures on the Plasma Metabolome in Feminizing Gender-Affirming Hormone Therapy.

CONTEXT: The plasma metabolome is a functional readout of metabolic activity and is associated with phenotypes exhibiting sexual dimorphism, such as cardiovascular disease. Sex hormones are thought to play a key role in driving sexual dimorphism. OBJECTIVE: Gender-affirming hormone therapy (GAHT) is a cornerstone of transgender care, but longitudinal changes in the plasma metabolome with feminizing GAHT have not been described. METHODS: Blood samples were collected at baseline and after three and six months of GAHT from transgender women (n = 53). Participants were randomized to different anti-androgens, cyproterone acetate or spironolactone. NMR-based metabolomics was used to measure 249 metabolic biomarkers in plasma. Additionally, we used metabolic biomarker data from an unrelated cohort of children and their parents (n = 3,748) to identify sex- and age-related metabolite patterns. RESULTS: We identified 43 metabolic biomarkers altered after six months in both anti-androgen groups, most belonging to the very low- or low-density lipoprotein subclasses, with all but one showing a decrease. We observed a cyproterone acetate-specific decrease in glutamine, glycine, and alanine levels. Notably, of the metabolic biomarkers exhibiting the most abundant 'sex- and age-related' pattern (higher in assigned female children and lower in assigned female adults, relative to assigned males), 80% were significantly lowered after GAHT, reflecting a shift toward the adult female profile. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest an anti-atherogenic signature in the plasma metabolome after the first six months of feminizing GAHT, with cyproterone acetate also reducing specific plasma amino acids. This study provides novel insight into the metabolic changes occurring across feminizing GAHT.

Prevalence of Eating Disorder Symptoms in Transgender and Gender Diverse Adolescents Presenting for Gender-Affirming Care.

PURPOSE: To describe the prevalence of eating disorder symptoms among adolescents seeking gender-affirming care. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of 660 gender-diverse adolescents who completed the Branched Eating Disorder Test to measure anorexia and bulimia symptoms. RESULTS: 23.9% (95% CI 20.7-27.4) reported both anorexia symptoms, namely overvaluation of weight and fear of (or recurrent interference with) weight gain. 0.9% (95% CI 0.3-2.0) reported all bulimia symptoms, namely overvaluation of weight, recurrent binge eating, and recurrent compensatory behaviors (e.g., weekly purging). For all symptoms, prevalence was higher among i) adolescents assigned female at birth compared to those assigned male at birth, and ii) adolescents who felt unsure about their gender identity compared to those who identified as trans or nonbinary. DISCUSSION: Clinicians should monitor eating disorder symptoms among adolescents presenting for gender-affirming care, especially among those assigned female at birth or who are unsure about their gender identity.

The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy.

Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to guide pandemic planning and decision-making in the context of high uncertainty. This effort was born out of an attempt to coordinate, synthesize and effectively use the unprecedented amount of predictive modeling that emerged throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we describe the history of this massive collective research effort, the process of convening and maintaining an open modeling hub active over multiple years, and attempt to provide a blueprint for future efforts. We detail the process of generating 17 rounds of scenarios and projections at different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, and disseminating results to the public health community and lay public. We also highlight how SMH was expanded to generate influenza projections during the 2022-23 season. We identify key impacts of SMH results on public health and draw lessons to improve future collaborative modeling efforts, research on scenario projections, and the interface between models and policy.

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.

Intervention targets for reducing mortality between mid-adolescence and mid-adulthood: a protocol for a machine-learning facilitated systematic umbrella review.

INTRODUCTION: A rise in premature mortality-defined here as death during the most productive years of life, between adolescence and middle adulthood (15-60 years)-is contributing to stalling life expectancy in high-income countries. Causes of mortality vary, but often include substance misuse, suicide, unintentional injury and non-communicable disease. The development of evidence-informed policy frameworks to guide new approaches to prevention require knowledge of early targets for intervention, and interactions between higher level drivers. Here, we aim to: (1) identify systematic reviews with or without meta-analyses focused on intervention targets for premature mortality (in which intervention targets are causes of mortality that can, at least hypothetically, be modified to reduce risk); (2) evaluate the review quality and risk of bias; (3) compare and evaluate each review's, and their relevant primary studies, findings to identify existing evidence gaps. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In May 2023, we searched electronic databases (MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library) for peer-reviewed papers published in the English language in the 12 years from 2012 to 2023 that examined intervention targets for mortality. Screening will narrow these papers to focus on systematic reviews with or without meta-analyses, and their primary papers. Our outcome is death between ages 15 and 60 years; with potential intervention targets measured prior to death. A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews (AMSTAR 2) will be used to assess quality and risk of bias within included systematic reviews. Results will be synthesised narratively due to anticipated heterogeneity between reviews and between primary studies contained within included reviews. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This review will synthesise findings from published systematic reviews and meta-analyses, and their primary reviewed studies, meaning ethics committee approval is not required. Our findings will inform cross-cohort consortium development, be published in a peer-reviewed journal, and be presented at national and international conferences. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022355861.

Polygenic Risk Scores and the Risk of Childhood Overweight/Obesity in Association With the Consumption of Sweetened Beverages: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Background: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) and non-nutritive sweetened beverage (NNSB) consumption is associated with obesity and are targets for population-level dietary interventions. In children (<16 years), we evaluate whether SSB or NNSB consumption is associated with subsequent (2 years later) overweight and/or obesity, and the effect of consumption on subsequent overweight/obesity differs by BMI polygenic risk score (BMI-PRS). Methods: The nationally representative Longitudinal-Study-of-Australian-Children had biennial data collection from birth (n = 5107) until age 14/15 years (n = 3127). At age 11/12 years, a comprehensive biomedical assessment, including PRS assessment, was undertaken (n = 1422). Parent- or self-reported beverage consumption (SSBs: soft drinks, energy drinks, and/or juice; NNSBs: diet drinks) was measured as any/none over previous 24 hours. BMI-PRS was derived using published results (high PRS ≥75th percentile). At ages 4/5-14/15 children were classified as having obesity, overweight/obesity, or not having overweight/obesity using BMI z-score (CDC cut points). Results: SSB consumption had limited association with subsequent overweight/obesity. NNSB consumption was associated with ∼8% more children with subsequent overweight/obesity at most ages. In older children with high BMI-PRS, associations between NNSB consumption and subsequent overweight/obesity strengthened with age [at age 14-15 for high BMI-PRS, difference in proportion with overweight/obesity among NNSB consumers vs. nonconsumers = 0.38 (95% confidence interval: 0.22 to 0.55, p ≤ 0.001)]. There was limited association between SSB consumption and BMI-PRS. Conclusion: NNSB consumption was associated with increased risk of overweight/obesity for children with greater genetic risk at older ages (12-15 years). Focused intervention among children with high genetic risk could target NNSB consumption; however, reverse causality (children with genetic risk and/or high BMI consume more NNSBs) cannot be excluded.

Cardiometabolic Risk Markers for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Children and Youths: A Systematic Review of Data Quality and Population Prevalence.

Cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus are leading contributors to the health inequity experienced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, and their antecedents can be identified from early childhood. We aimed to establish the quality of available data and the prevalence of cardiometabolic risk markers among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children and youths (0-24-year-olds) to inform public health approaches. A systematic review of the peer-reviewed and grey literature was conducted between 1 January 2000-28 February 2021. Included studies reported population prevalence of cardiometabolic risks, including elevated blood pressure, obesity, central adiposity, dyslipidaemia, hyperglycaemia, and 'metabolic syndrome' for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 0-24 years. Fifteen studies provided population estimates. Data quality was limited by low response rates (10/15 studies) and suboptimal outcome measurements. Obesity is the most reported risk (13/15 studies). Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children have an excess risk of obesity from early childhood and prevalence increases with age: 32.1% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander 18-24-year-olds had obesity and 50.8% had central adiposity. In a cohort of 486 9-14-year-olds in Darwin, 70% had ≥1 component of metabolic syndrome; 14% met the full criteria for the syndrome. The prevalence of cardiometabolic risk in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people is difficult to estimate due to limitations in measurement quality and sampling representativeness. Available data suggest that cardiometabolic risk markers are evident from early childhood. The establishment of national and state-level datasets and a core outcome set for cardiometabolic screening would provide opportunities for preventative action.

Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty. An evaluation of the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by the complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning more than a few weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers, with the additional benefit that such scenarios can be used to anticipate the comparative effect of control measures. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make 6-month ahead projections of the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The SMH released nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections between February 2021 and November 2022. SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. Scenario assumptions were periodically invalidated by the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants, but SMH still provided projections on average 22 weeks before changes in assumptions (such as virus transmissibility) invalidated scenarios and their corresponding projections. During these periods, before emergence of a novel variant, a linear opinion pool ensemble of contributed models was consistently more reliable than any single model, and projection interval coverage was near target levels for the most plausible scenarios (e.g., 79% coverage for 95% projection interval). SMH projections were used operationally to guide planning and policy at different stages of the pandemic, illustrating the value of the hub approach for long-term scenario projections.

Comparison of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) recommendations and the risk index for overdose or serious opioid-induced respiratory depression (RIOSORD) tool for guiding naloxone coprescribing.

PURPOSE: Patients treated with ongoing opioid therapy may be at an increased risk of respiratory depression or death, which may be mitigated through prompt administration of naloxone. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) guidelines for prescribing opioids in primary care settings recommend patients treated with ongoing opioid analgesic therapy be offered a coprescription of naloxone based on total oral morphine milligram equivalents per day or concurrent benzodiazepine therapy. Opioid overdose risk is dose-dependent, yet other patient-specific factors contribute to this risk. The risk index for overdose or serious opioid-induced respiratory depression (RIOSORD) incorporates additional risk factors to assess the risk of overdose or clinically relevant respiratory depression. OBJECTIVES: This study compared the frequency of meeting CDC, Veterans' Health Administration (VA) RIOSORD, or civilian RIOSORD criteria for naloxone coprescribing. METHODS: A retrospective chart review of 42 Federally Qualified Health Centers in Illinois was conducted for all CII-CIV opioid analgesic prescriptions. Ongoing opioid therapy was defined as patients who received seven or more CII-CIV opioid analgesic prescriptions during the 1-year study period. Patients aged 18-89, receiving opioids for nonmalignant pain, and meeting the criteria of ongoing opioid therapy were included in the analysis. RESULTS: A total of 41,777 controlled substance analgesic prescriptions were prescribed during the study period. Data from 651 individual patient charts were evaluated. Of those, 606 patients met inclusion criteria. From these data, 57.9 percent of patients (N = 351) met civilian RIOSORD criteria, 36.5 percent (N = 221) met VA RIOSORD criteria, and 22.8 percent (N = 138) met CDC guideline recommendations for naloxone coprescribing. The percentage of patients who met RIOSORD criteria compared to CDC criteria was significantly higher (p < 0.001). Of all patients meeting ongoing opioid therapy criteria, only seven had been coprescribed naloxone. CONCLUSION: Coprescribing of naloxone is significantly underutilized in patients treated with opioid therapy for nonmalignant chronic pain and should not solely be based on total oral morphine milligram equivalents per day or concurrent benzodiazepine therapy. As risk assessment improves, consideration of other risk-conferring variables, such as gabapentinoids, skeletal muscle relaxants, and sleep hypnotics, should be considered.

Weight status and weight-control exercise in adolescents: A longitudinal population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Exercise is a transdiagnostic clinical feature of eating disorders, but consensus is lacking as to what constitutes, and gives rise to, excessive exercise motivated by weight control. Using a longitudinal cohort study, we aimed to describe population-level prevalence rates of varying levels of weight-control exercise and examine gender and weight status (overweight or obesity; OVOB) as cross-sectional determinants of weight-control exercise in 14-15-year-old adolescents. We then evaluated the association of OVOB at 10-11 years with weight-control exercise at 14-15 years. METHODS: The sample comprised 6329 adolescents from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). Weight and height were measured in early adolescence (aged 10-11) and in mid-adolescence (aged 14-15). Participants reported weight-control exercise using the Branched Eating Disorders Test at 14-15 years. RESULTS: In mid-adolescence, the estimated population prevalence for any weight-control exercise was 49 % (55 % in females). For girls, moderate levels of exercise were most prevalent, and low levels for boys. For all levels except for the very lowest, boys with (vs. without) OVOB history (10-11 years) had about twice the odds of endorsing every level of weight-control exercise. Patterns among girls were similar, though lower in magnitude (∼1.5 times). CONCLUSIONS: For both girls and boys, across most exercise levels, rates of weight-control exercise were greatest for those with OVOB; for the highest exercise level, effects were strongest for boys with OVOB. To accurately identify at-risk adolescents, our results provide preliminary support for a fluid definition of excessive weight-control exercise, dependent on gender and weight status.

Socioeconomic disadvantage and polygenic risk for high BMI magnify obesity risk across childhood: a longitudinal, population, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Across the life course, socioeconomic disadvantage disproportionately afflicts those with genetic predispositions to inflammatory diseases. We describe how socioeconomic disadvantage and polygenic risk for high BMI magnify the risk of obesity across childhood, and using causal analyses, explore the hypothetical impact of intervening on socioeconomic disadvantage to reduce adolescent obesity. METHODS: Data were drawn from a nationally representative Australian birth cohort, with biennial data collection between 2004 and 2018 (research and ethics committee approved). We generated a polygenic risk score for BMI using published genome-wide association studies. We measured early-childhood disadvantage (age 2-3 years) with a neighbourhood census-based measure and a family-level composite of parent income, occupation, and education. We used generalised linear regression (Poisson-log link) to estimate the risk of overweight or obesity (BMI ≥85th percentile) at age 14-15 years for children with early-childhood disadvantage (quintiles 4-5) versus average (quintile 3) and least disadvantage (quintiles 1-2), for those with high and low polygenic risk separately. FINDINGS: For 1607 children (n=796 female, n=811 male; 31% of the original cohort [N=5107]), polygenic risk and disadvantage were both associated with overweight or obesity; effects of disadvantage were more marked as polygenic risk increased. Of children with polygenic risk higher than the median (n=805), 37% of children living in disadvantage at age 2-3 years had an overweight or obese BMI by adolescence, compared with 26% of those with least disadvantage. For genetically vulnerable children, causal analyses indicated that early neighbourhood intervention to lessen disadvantage (to quintile 1-2) would reduce risk of adolescent overweight or obesity by 23% (risk ratio 0·77; 95% CI 0·57-1·04); estimates for improving family environments were similar (0·59; 0·43-0·80). INTERPRETATION: Actions addressing socioeconomic disadvantage could mitigate polygenic risk for developing obesity. This study benefits from population-representative longitudinal data but is limited by sample size. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Greenness modifies the association between ambient air pollution and cognitive function in Australian adolescents, but not in mid-life adults.

Exposure to ambient air pollution has been associated with reduced cognitive function in childhood and later life, with too few mid-life studies to draw conclusions. In contrast, residential greenness has been associated with enhanced cognitive function throughout the lifecourse. Here we examine the extent to which (1) ambient air pollution and residential greenness predict later cognitive function in adolescence and mid-life, and (2) greenness modifies air pollution-cognitive function associations. PARTICIPANTS: 6220 adolescents (51% male) and 2623 mid-life adults (96% mothers) from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. MEASURES: Exposures: Annual average particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and greenness (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) for residential addresses from validated land-use regression models over a 10-13-year period. OUTCOMES: Cognitive function from CogState tests of attention, working memory and executive function, dichotomised into poorer (worst quartile) versus not poor. ANALYSES: Adjusted mixed-effects generalised linear models with residential greenness assessed as an effect modifier (high vs. low divided at median). The annual mean for PM2.5 and NO2 across exposure windows was 6.3-6.8 µg/m3, and 5.5-7.1 ppb, respectively. For adolescents, an IQR increment of NO2 was associated with 19-24% increased odds of having poorer executive function across all time windows, while associations weren't observed between air pollution and other outcomes. For adults, high NO2 predicted poorer cognitive function across all outcomes, while high PM2.5 predicted poorer attention only. There was little evidence of associations between greenness and cognitive function in adjusted models for both generations. Interactions were found between residential greenness, air pollutants and cognitive function in adolescents, but not adults. The magnitude of effects was similar across generations and exposure windows. Findings highlight the potential benefits of cognitive health associated with the regulation of air pollution and urban planning strategies for increasing green spaces and vegetation.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: A multi-model study.

Background: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding: Various (see acknowledgments).

The effect of adverse and positive experiences on inflammatory markers in Australian and UK children.

Background: The relationship between childhood adversity and inflammation is well-established. Examination of positive experiences can provide a more complete understanding of intervention opportunities. We investigated associations of adverse and positive experiences, and their intersection, with inflammation in children and adolescents. Methods: Data sources: Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC; N = 1237) and Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; N = 3488). Exposures: Adverse and positive experiences assessed repeatedly (LSAC: 0-11 years; ALSPAC: 0-15 years). Outcomes: Inflammation quantified by high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and glycoprotein acetyls (GlycA) (LSAC: 11-12 years; ALSPAC: 15.5 years). Analyses: Linear regression on the log-transformed outcomes estimated the relative difference in inflammatory markers with adverse/positive experiences, adjusting for socio-demographics and concurrent positive/adverse experiences, respectively. Results: Most associations were in the expected direction but differed in magnitude by exposure, outcome and cohort. Across both cohorts, adverse experiences were associated with up to 7.3% higher hsCRP (95% CI: -18.6%, 33.2%) and up to 2.0% higher GlycA (95% CI: 0.5%, 3.5%); while positive experiences were associated with up to 22.1% lower hsCRP (95% CI: -49.0%, 4.7%) and 1.3% lower GlycA (95% CI: -2.7%, 0.2%). In LSAC, the beneficial effect of positive experiences on inflammation was more pronounced among those with fewer concurrent adverse experiences. Conclusion: Across two cohorts, we found small but directionally consistent associations between adverse experiences and higher inflammation, and positive experiences and lower inflammation, particularly for GlycA. Future research should give further consideration to positive experiences to complement the current focus on adversity and inform the design and evaluation of early life interventions.

Stress, eating and weight change in first year students: the moderating role of self-compassion.

OBJECTIVE: The current study sought to examine the drivers of weight change in first-year university students. The study examined the moderating role of self-compassion in the relationship between stress, eating and weight change. Specifically, we expected that students low in self-compassion would respond to stress with unhealthy eating resulting in weight gain. We expected students high in self-compassion to be buffered from the negative effects of stress (moderated mediation model). METHODS: First-year university students in New Zealand (N = 136) completed measures of healthy and unhealthy food intake and BMI at the beginning and end of the academic year. Self-compassion was measured at baseline only, and perceived stress was averaged over four time points across the year. RESULTS: Students gained a significant 1.45 kg (SD 3.67 kg) of body weight. Self-compassion moderated the relationship between stress and changes in: (a) unhealthy (but not healthy) food intake, and (b) body weight. For those with low self-compassion, perceived stress was significantly related to an increase in BMI and, unexpectedly, to a decrease in unhealthy food intake. Changes in food intake did not explain changes in BMI. CONCLUSION: Wellbeing interventions for university students to reduce negative effects of stress should incorporate concurrent training in self-compassion.

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination.

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July-December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, although may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model.

Can adult polygenic scores improve prediction of body mass index in childhood?

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Modelling genetic pre-disposition may identify children at risk of obesity. However, most polygenic scores (PGSs) have been derived in adults, and lack validation during childhood. This study compared the utility of existing large-scale adult-derived PGSs to predict common anthropometric traits (body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and body fat) in children and adults, and examined whether childhood BMI prediction could be improved by combining PGSs and non-genetic factors (maternal and earlier child BMI). SUBJECTS/METHODS: Participants (n = 1365 children, and n = 2094 adults made up of their parents) were drawn from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Children were weighed and measured every two years from 0-1 to 12-13 years, and adults were measured or self-reported measurements were obtained concurrently (average analysed). Participants were genotyped from blood or oral samples, and PGSs were derived based on published genome-wide association studies. We used linear regression to compare the relative utility of these PGSs to predict their respective traits at different ages. RESULTS: BMI PGSs explained up to 12% of child BMI z-score variance in 10-13 year olds, compared with up to 15% in adults. PGSs for waist circumference and body fat explained less variance (up to 8%). An interaction between BMI PGSs and puberty (p = 0.001-0.002) suggests the effect of some variants may differ across the life course. Individual BMI measures across childhood predicted 10-60% of the variance in BMI at 12-13 years, and maternal BMI and BMI PGS each added 1-9% above this. CONCLUSION: Adult-derived PGSs for BMI, particularly those derived by modelling between-variant interactions, may be useful for predicting BMI during adolescence with similar accuracy to that obtained in adulthood. The level of precision presented here to predict BMI during childhood may be relevant to public health, but is likely to be less useful for individual clinical purposes.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: a multi-model study.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams in September 2021 to project the impact of expanding vaccine administration to children 5-11 years old on anticipated COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Nine modeling teams contributed state- and national-level projections for weekly counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States for the period September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of: 1) presence vs. absence of vaccination of children ages 5-11 years starting on November 1, 2021; and 2) continued dominance of the Delta variant vs. emergence of a hypothetical more transmissible variant on November 15, 2021. Individual team projections were combined using linear pooling. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated by meta-analysis approaches. Findings: Absent a new variant, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among all ages were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. Under a set of specific assumptions, models projected that vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios where children were not vaccinated. This projected effect of vaccinating children 5-11 years old increased in the presence of a more transmissible variant, assuming no change in vaccine effectiveness by variant. Larger relative reductions in cumulative cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were observed for children than for the entire U.S. population. Substantial state-level variation was projected in epidemic trajectories, vaccine benefits, and variant impacts. Conclusions: Results from this multi-model aggregation study suggest that, under a specific set of scenario assumptions, expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits to this age group and indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants.