Legacy introductions and climatic variation explain spatiotemporal patterns of invasive hybridization in a native trout.

Hybridization between invasive and native species, a significant threat to worldwide biodiversity, is predicted to increase due to climate-induced expansions of invasive species. Long-term research and monitoring are crucial for understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes that modulate the effects of invasive species. Using a large, multidecade genetics dataset (N = 582 sites, 12,878 individuals) with high-resolution climate predictions and extensive stocking records, we evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of hybridization between native cutthroat trout and invasive rainbow trout, the world's most widely introduced invasive fish, across the Northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. Historical effects of stocking and contemporary patterns of climatic variation were strongly related to the spread of hybridization across space and time. The probability of occurrence, extent of, and temporal changes in hybridization increased at sites in close proximity to historical stocking locations with greater rainbow trout propagule pressure, warmer water temperatures, and lower spring precipitation. Although locations with warmer water temperatures were more prone to hybridization, cold sites were not protected from invasion; 58% of hybridized sites had cold mean summer water temperatures (<11°C). Despite cessation of stocking over 40 years ago, hybridization increased over time at half (50%) of the locations with long-term data, the vast majority of which (74%) were initially nonhybridized, emphasizing the chronic, negative impacts of human-mediated hybridization. These results show that effects of climate change on biodiversity must be analyzed in the context of historical human impacts that set ecological and evolutionary trajectories.

Propagule pressure and stream characteristics influence introgression: cutthroat and rainbow trout in British Columbia.

Hybridization and introgression between introduced and native salmonids threaten the continued persistence of many inland cutthroat trout species. Environmental models have been developed to predict the spread of introgression, but few studies have assessed the role of propagule pressure. We used an extensive set of fish Stocking records and geographic information system (GIS) data to produce a spatially explicit index of potential propagule pressure exerted by introduced rainbow trout in the Upper Kootenay River, British Columbia, Canada. We then used logistic regression and the information-theoretic approach to test the ability of a set of environmental and spatial variables to predict the level of introgression between native westslope cutthroat trout and introduced rainbow trout. Introgression was assessed using between four and seven co-dominant, diagnostic nuclear markers at 45 sites in 31 different streams. The best model for predicting introgression included our GIS propagule pressure index and an environmental variable that accounted for the biogeoclimatic zone of the site (r2=0.62). This model was 1.4 times more likely to explain introgression than the next-best model, which consisted of only the propagule pressure index variable. We created a composite model based on the model-averaged results of the seven top models that included environmental, spatial, and propagule pressure variables. The propagule pressure index had the highest importance weight (0.995) of all variables tested and was negatively related to sites with no introgression. This study used an index of propagule pressure and demonstrated that propagule pressure had the greatest influence on the level of introgression between a native and introduced trout in a human-induced hybrid zone.