Ensemble Models for Tick Vectors: Standard Surveys Compared with Convenience Samples.

Ensembles of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) represent the geographic ranges of pathogen vectors by combining alternative analytical approaches and merging information on vector occurrences with more extensive environmental data. Biased collection data impact SDMs, regardless of the target species, but no studies have compared the differences in the distributions predicted by the ensemble models when different sampling frameworks are used for the same species. We compared Ensemble SDMs for two important Ixodid tick vectors, Amblyomma americanum and Ixodes scapularis in mainland Florida, USA, when inputs were either convenience samples of ticks, or collections obtained using the standard protocols promulgated by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Ensemble SDMs for the convenience samples and standard surveys showed only a slight agreement (Kappa = 0.060, A. americanum; 0.053, I. scapularis). Convenience sample SDMs indicated A. americanum and I. scapularis should be absent from nearly one third (34.5% and 30.9%, respectively) of the state where standard surveys predicted the highest likelihood of occurrence. Ensemble models from standard surveys predicted 81.4% and 72.5% (A. americanum and I. scapularis) of convenience sample sites. Omission errors by standard survey SDMs of the convenience collections were associated almost exclusively with either adjacency to at least one SDM, or errors in geocoding algorithms that failed to correctly locate geographic locations of convenience samples. These errors emphasize commonly overlooked needs to explicitly evaluate and improve data quality for arthropod survey data that are applied to spatial models.

Validating Species Distribution Models With Standardized Surveys for Ixodid Ticks in Mainland Florida.

Tick-borne pathogens are of growing concern. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) developed guidelines standardizing surveys of tick vectors to better monitor the changes in their occurrences. Unbiased surveillance data, from standardized surveys, are presumed critical to generate valid species distribution models (SDMs). We tested previously generated SDMs from standardized protocols for three medically important ticks [Amblyomma americanum (Linnaeus, Ixodida, Ixodidae), Ixodes scapularis (Say, Ixodida, Ixodidae), and Dermacentor variabilis (Say, Ixodida, Ixodidae)]. These previous models ruled out a quarter to half of the state as having these species, with consensus occurrence in about a quarter of the state. New surveys performed throughout 2019 on 250 transects at 43 sites indicated the rule-out functions were 100% accurate for I. scapularis and D. variabilis and 91.9% for A. americanum. As SDM concordance increased, the proportion of transects yielding ticks increased. Independent surveys of SDMs provide external validation-an aspect missing from many SDM studies.

A Survey of Tick-Borne Bacterial Pathogens in Florida.

Within the past three decades, new bacterial etiological agents of tick-borne disease have been discovered in the southeastern U.S., and the number of reported tick-borne pathogen infections has increased. In Florida, few systematic studies have been conducted to determine the presence of tick-borne bacterial pathogens. This investigation examined the distribution and presence of tick-borne bacterial pathogens in Florida. Ticks were collected by flagging at 41 field sites, spanning the climatic regions of mainland Florida. DNA was extracted individually from 1608 ticks and screened for Anaplasma, Borrelia, Ehrlichia and Rickettsia using conventional PCR and primers that amplified multiple species for each genus. PCR positive samples were Sanger sequenced. Four species of ticks were collected: Amblyomma americanum, Amblyomma maculatum, Dermacentor variabilis, and Ixodes scapularis. Within these ticks, six bacterial species were identified: Borrelia burgdorferi, Borrelia lonestari, Ehrlichia ewingii, Rickettsia amblyommatis, Rickettsia andeanae, Rickettsia parkeri, and Rickettsia endosymbionts. Pathogenic Borrelia, Ehrlichia, and Rickettsia species were all detected in the North and North-Central Florida counties; however, we found only moderate concordance between the distribution of ticks infected with pathogenic bacteria and human cases of tick-borne diseases in Florida. Given the diversity and numerous bacterial species detected in ticks in Florida, further investigations should be conducted to identify regional hotspots of tick-borne pathogens.

Standardized Ixodid Tick Survey in Mainland Florida.

A statewide survey of questing ixodid ticks in mainland Florida was developed consistent with U.S. CDC standards to maximize the amount of epidemiologic and environmental data gathered. Survey sites were stratified by climatic zones and proportional to recognized land cover categories. A total of 560 transects on 41 sites within the state were sampled repeatedly by flagging between 2015 and 2018. Four tick species were collected; Amblyomma americanum, Amblyomma maculatum, Ixodes scapularis and Dermacentor variabilis. All species were more commonly found in northern and central regions of the state than in southern and western regions. Adult I. scapularis were active from autumn through spring and complementary to adult A. americanum and D. variabilis. Standardized survey methods help reduce sampling biases and better characterize risk from the species surveyed. However, differences in the attractiveness of collection methods for different tick species makes cross-species comparisons a continuing challenge.

Modeling the Distribution of Medically Important Tick Species in Florida.

The lone star (Amblyomma americanum), black-legged (Ixodes scapularis) and American dog ticks (Dermacentor variabilis) are species of great public health importance as they are competent vectors of several notable pathogens. While the regional distributions of these species are well characterized, more localized distribution estimates are sparse. We used records of field collected ticks and an ensemble modeling approach to predict habitat suitability for each of these species in Florida. Environmental variables capturing climatic extremes were common contributors to habitat suitability. Most frequently, annual precipitation (Bio12), mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were included in the final models for each species. Agreement between the modeling algorithms used in this study was high and indicated the distribution of suitable habitat for all three species was reduced at lower latitudes. These findings are important for raising awareness of the potential for tick-borne pathogens in Florida.

Estimating the Geographic Distribution of Host-Seeking Adult Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) in Florida.

The lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, is the most commonly reported human-biting tick in the southeastern United States and is a vector for several human and livestock pathogens. Although it is endemic to Florida, little is known about the ecological preferences and current spatial distribution within the state. Using occurrence records of adult A. americanum collected between August 2015 and September 2016, a logistic regression model was used to estimate environmental associations, as well as to predict the distribution of the tick at a one hectare resolution. Occurrence of adult lone star ticks was associated with land cover and bioclimatic variables, namely the presence of forested areas and precipitation seasonality. The estimated spatial distribution indicated that central and northern regions show greater suitability than the southern half of the state. Furthermore, areas predicted to be suitable for the species decreases from north to south with very little area deemed suitable in the far southern reaches of the state. High heterogeneity in the distribution of suitable habitat has implications for the distribution of tick-borne disease cases in the state. The subcounty resolution of the estimated distribution is an improvement over distributions currently published and may better inform the public and state or federal agencies of potential risk of exposure to A. americanum and its associated pathogens.