Agent-Based Computational Epidemiological Modeling.

The study of epidemics is useful for not only understanding outbreaks and trying to limit their adverse effects, but also because epidemics are related to social phenomena such as government instability, crime, poverty, and inequality. One approach for studying epidemics is to simulate their spread through populations. In this work, we describe an integrated multi-dimensional approach to epidemic simulation, which encompasses: (1) a theoretical framework for simulation and analysis; (2) synthetic population (digital twin) generation; (3) (social contact) network construction methods from synthetic populations, (4) stylized network construction methods; and (5) simulation of the evolution of a virus or disease through a social network. We describe these aspects and end with a short discussion on simulation results that inform public policy.

Parallel Algorithms for Switching Edges in Heterogeneous Graphs.

An edge switch is an operation on a graph (or network) where two edges are selected randomly and one of their end vertices are swapped with each other. Edge switch operations have important applications in graph theory and network analysis, such as in generating random networks with a given degree sequence, modeling and analyzing dynamic networks, and in studying various dynamic phenomena over a network. The recent growth of real-world networks motivates the need for efficient parallel algorithms. The dependencies among successive edge switch operations and the requirement to keep the graph simple (i.e., no self-loops or parallel edges) as the edges are switched lead to significant challenges in designing a parallel algorithm. Addressing these challenges requires complex synchronization and communication among the processors leading to difficulties in achieving a good speedup by parallelization. In this paper, we present distributed memory parallel algorithms for switching edges in massive networks. These algorithms provide good speedup and scale well to a large number of processors. A harmonic mean speedup of 73.25 is achieved on eight different networks with 1024 processors. One of the steps in our edge switch algorithms requires the computation of multinomial random variables in parallel. This paper presents the first non-trivial parallel algorithm for the problem, achieving a speedup of 925 using 1024 processors.

Effect of modelling slum populations on influenza spread in Delhi.

OBJECTIVES: This research studies the impact of influenza epidemic in the slum and non-slum areas of Delhi, the National Capital Territory of India, by taking proper account of slum demographics and residents' activities, using a highly resolved social contact network of the 13.8 million residents of Delhi. METHODS: An SEIR model is used to simulate the spread of influenza on two different synthetic social contact networks of Delhi, one where slums and non-slums are treated the same in terms of their demographics and daily sets of activities and the other, where slum and non-slum regions have different attributes. RESULTS: Differences between the epidemic outcomes on the two networks are large. Time-to-peak infection is overestimated by several weeks, and the cumulative infection rate and peak infection rate are underestimated by 10-50%, when slum attributes are ignored. CONCLUSIONS: Slum populations have a significant effect on influenza transmission in urban areas. Improper specification of slums in large urban regions results in underestimation of infections in the entire population and hence will lead to misguided interventions by policy planners.