Outcomes of WHO-conforming, longer, all-oral multidrug-resistant TB regimens and analysis implications.

BACKGROUND: Evidence of the effectiveness of the WHO-recommended design of longer individualized regimens for multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB) is limited.OBJECTIVES: To report end-of-treatment outcomes for MDR/RR-TB patients from a 2015-2018 multi-country cohort that received a regimen consistent with current 2022 WHO updated recommendations and describe the complexities of comparing regimens.METHODS: We analyzed a subset of participants from the endTB Observational Study who initiated a longer MDR/RR-TB regimen that was consistent with subsequent 2022 WHO guidance on regimen design for longer treatments. We excluded individuals who received an injectable agent or who received fewer than four likely effective drugs.RESULTS: Of the 759 participants analyzed, 607 (80.0%, 95% CI 77.0-82.7) experienced successful end-of-treatment outcomes. The frequency of success was high across groups, whether stratified on number of Group A drugs or fluoroquinolone resistance, and ranged from 72.1% to 90.0%. Regimens were highly variable regarding composition and the duration of individual drugs.CONCLUSIONS: Longer, all-oral, individualized regimens that were consistent with 2022 WHO guidance on regimen design had high frequencies of treatment success. Heterogeneous regimen compositions and drug durations precluded meaningful comparisons. Future research should examine which combinations of drugs maximize safety/tolerability and effectiveness.

Development and internal validation of a diagnostic prediction model for COVID-19 at time of admission to hospital.

BACKGROUND: Early coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnosis prior to laboratory testing results is crucial for infection control in hospitals. Models exist predicting COVID-19 diagnosis, but significant concerns exist regarding methodology and generalizability. AIM: To generate the first COVID-19 diagnosis risk score for use at the time of hospital admission using the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) checklist. DESIGN: A multivariable diagnostic prediction model for COVID-19 using the TRIPOD checklist applied to a large single-centre retrospective observational study of patients with suspected COVID-19. METHODS: 581 individuals were admitted with suspected COVID-19; the majority had laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (420/581, 72.2%). Retrospective collection was performed of electronic clinical records and pathology data. RESULTS: The final multivariable model demonstrated AUC 0.8535 (95% confidence interval 0.8121-0.8950). The final model used six clinical variables that are routinely available in most low and high-resource settings. Using a cut-off of 2, the derived risk score has a sensitivity of 78.1% and specificity of 86.8%. At COVID-19 prevalence of 10% the model has a negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Our risk score is intended for diagnosis of COVID-19 in individuals admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. The score is the first developed for COVID-19 diagnosis using the TRIPOD checklist. It may be effective as a tool to rule out COVID-19 and function at different pandemic phases of variable COVID-19 prevalence. The simple score could be used by any healthcare worker to support hospital infection control prior to laboratory testing results.

Automated chest radiography and mass systematic screening for tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Systematic screening for TB using automated chest radiography (ACR) with computer-aided detection software (CAD4TB) has been implemented at scale in Karachi, Pakistan. Despite evidence supporting the use of ACR as a pre-screen prior to Xpert® MTB/RIF diagnostic testing in presumptive TB patients, there has been no data published on its use in mass screening in real-world settings.METHOD: Screening was undertaken using mobile digital X-ray vehicles at hospital facilities and community camps. Chest X-rays were offered to individuals aged ≥15 years, regardless of symptoms. Those with a CAD4TB score of ≥70 were offered Xpert testing. The association between Xpert positivity and CAD4TB scores was examined using data collected between 1 January and 30 June 2018 using a custom-built data collection tool.RESULTS: Of the 127 062 individuals screened, 97.2% had a valid CAD4TB score; 11 184 (9.1%) individuals had a CAD4TB score ≥70. Prevalence of Xpert positivity rose from 0.7% in the <50 category to 23.5% in the >90 category. The strong linear association between CAD4TB score and Xpert positivity was found in both community and hospital settings.CONCLUSION: The strong association between CAD4TB scores and Xpert positivity provide evidence that an ACR-based pre-screening performs well when implemented at scale in a high-burden setting.

Does antiretroviral treatment increase the infectiousness of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis?

BACKGROUND: Understanding of the effects of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and antiretroviral treatment (ART) on Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission dynamics remains limited. We undertook a cross-sectional study among household contacts of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) cases to assess the effect of established ART on the infectiousness of TB. METHOD: Prevalence of tuberculin skin test (TST) positivity was compared between contacts of index cases aged 2-10 years who were HIV-negative, HIV-positive but not on ART, on ART for <1 year and on ART for 1 year. Random-effects logistic regression was used to take into account clustering within households. RESULTS: Prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection in contacts of HIV-negative patients, HIV-positive patients on ART 1 year and HIV-positive patients not on ART/on ART <1 year index cases was respectively 44%, 21% and 22%. Compared to contacts of HIV-positive index cases not on ART or recently started on ART, the odds of TST positivity was similar in contacts of HIV-positive index cases on ART 1 year (adjusted OR [aOR] 1.0, 95%CI 0.3-3.7). The odds were 2.9 times higher in child contacts of HIV-negative index cases (aOR 2.9, 95%CI 1.0-8.2). CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence that established ART increased the infectiousness of smear-positive, HIV-positive index cases.

Challenges in the Estimation of the Annual Risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Children Aged Less Than 5 Years.

Accurate estimates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in young children provide a critical indicator of ongoing community transmission of M. tuberculosis. Cross-reactions due to infection with environmental mycobacteria and/or bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination compromise the estimates derived from population-level tuberculin skin-test surveys using traditional cutoff methods. Newer statistical approaches are prone to failure of model convergence, especially in settings where the prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection is low and environmental sensitization is high. We conducted a tuberculin skin-test survey in 5,119 preschool children in the general population and among household contacts of tuberculosis cases in 2012-2014 in a district in northern Malawi where sensitization to environmental mycobacteria is common and almost all children are BCG-vaccinated. We compared different proposed methods of estimating M. tuberculosis prevalence, including a method described by Rust and Thomas more than 40 years ago. With the different methods, estimated prevalence in the general population was 0.7%-11.5% at ages <2 years and 0.8%-3.3% at ages 2-4 years. The Rust and Thomas method was the only method to give a lower estimate in the younger age group (0.7% vs 0.8%), suggesting that it was the only method that adjusted appropriately for the marked effect of BCG-attributable induration in the very young.

Risk factors for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in 2-4 year olds in a rural HIV-prevalent setting.

BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in children acts as a sentinel for infectious tuberculosis. OBJECTIVE: To assess risk factors associated with tuberculous infection in pre-school children. METHOD: We conducted a population-wide tuberculin skin test (TST) survey from January to December 2012 in Malawi. All children aged 2-4 years residing in a demographic surveillance area were eligible. Detailed demographic data, including adult human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, and clinical and sociodemographic data on all diagnosed tuberculosis (TB) patients were available. RESULTS: The prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection was 1.1% using a TST induration cut-off of 15 mm (estimated annual risk of infection of 0.3%). The main identifiable risk factors were maternal HIV infection at birth (adjusted OR [aOR] 3.6, 95%CI 1.1-12.2), having three or more adult members in the household over a lifetime (aOR 2.4, 95%CI 1.2-4.8) and living in close proximity to a known case of infectious TB (aOR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.4), modelled as a linear variable across categories (>200 m, 100-200 m, <100 m, within household). Less than 20% of the infected children lived within 200 m of a known diagnosed case. CONCLUSION: Household and community risk factors identified do not explain the majority of M. tuberculosis infections in children in our setting.

Internal carotid artery occlusion: its natural history including recanalization and subsequent neurological events.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of recanalization of the occluded internal carotid artery (ICA) and establish its natural history. METHODS: Patients with duplex-confirmed ICA occlusions were identified, and a subgroup offered repeat scanning. The antemortem condition and cause of death of patients who died were recorded. RESULTS: Of 153 patients identified, 77 underwent follow-up at a median of 35 months (interquartile range [IQR]: 14-61).In all, 8 (10.3%) demonstrated recanalization at a median of 53 months (IQR: 35-114). Of 8, 7 underwent carotid endarterectomy with histopathological confirmation of recanalization. Of the 153 patients, 45 (29%) had further neurological events, and 38 (25%) were within the territory of the occluded ICA. In all, 76 patients died, and of the 53 with a confirmed cause of death, 12 (23%) were attributed to a cerebrovascular accident corresponding to the territory of the occluded artery. CONCLUSION: Recanalization of ICA occlusion is common and leads to significant neurological events. Duplex ultrasound follow-up appears mandatory.

Integrated tuberculosis and HIV care in a resource-limited setting: experience from the Martin Preuss centre, Malawi.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the development and operation of integrated tuberculosis (TB) and HIV care at the Martin Preuss Centre, a multipartner organization bringing together governmental and non-governmental providers of HIV and TB services in Lilongwe, Malawi. METHODS: We used a case study approach to describe the integrated TB/HIV service and to illustrate successes and challenges faced by service providers. We quantified effective TB and HIV integration using indicators defined by the World Health Organization. RESULTS: The custom-designed building facilitates patient flow and infection control, and other important elements include coordinated leadership; joint staff training and meetings; and data systems prompting coordinated care. Some integrated services have worked well from the outset, such as promoting HIV testing among patients with TB (96% of patients with TB had documented HIV status in 2009). Other aspects of integrated care have been more challenging, for example achieving high uptake of antiretroviral therapy among HIV-positive TB patients and combining data from paper and electronic systems. Good TB treatment outcomes (>85% cure or completion) have been achieved among both HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals. CONCLUSIONS: High-quality integrated services for TB and HIV care can be provided in a resource-limited setting. Lessons learned may be valuable for service providers in other settings of high HIV and TB prevalence.