The current reproduction number of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: is the disease controlled?

The infectiousness of COVID-19 is high among the susceptible population, making the calculation of the reproduction number (R) an essential step to implement preventive measures. We aim to estimate COVID-19 transmission to determine if the disease is successfully controlled or extra measured should be adopted to attain this goal. The daily incidence data of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia from March 2nd, 2020, to April 4th, 2021, were obtained from the continuously updated Saudi Ministry of Health COVID-19 repository. To get accurate estimation of the situation over the last 4 months (from December 1st, 2020, to April 4th, 2021), we calculated the weekly (every 7 days) R starting from March 2nd, 2020, and till the last week of the available data. The calculated values of R were represented as median, first quantile (Q1), and third quantile (Q3). As early as the first week of December 2020, the median R was 0.81 (0.80-0.83) which means that each existing infected case would transmit infection to only one person. This was followed by fluctuations over the next few weeks around R value of 1, reaching its highest level of 1.45 (1.42-1.47) between December 31st, 2020, and January 6th, 2021. This was followed by a relatively steady decline over the following weeks, with some till mid-March where the R values started to slightly rise again. Social distancing, protective precautions, avoiding abuse of the partial lifting, expanding the screening process, and other Saudi measures sound to be successful and should be replicated in similar communities. This measure should be continued till the vaccination process is completed, to reduce the number of contacts and to avoid uncontrolled transmission of the disease.

Correlation between measles immunization coverage and overall morbidity and mortality for COVID-19: an epidemiological study.

We conducted the current analysis to determine the potential role of measles vaccination in the context of the spread of COVID-19. Data were extracted from the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Health Observatory data repository about the measles immunization coverage estimates and correlated to overall morbidity and mortality for COVID-19 among different countries. Data were statistically analyzed to calculate the Spearman rank correlation coefficient (rho). There was a significant positive correlation between the vaccine coverage (%) and new cases per one million populations (rho = 0.24; p-value = 0.025); however, this correlation was absent in deaths per one million populations (rho = 0.17; p-value = 0.124). On further analysis of the effect of first reported year of vaccination policy, there was no significant correlation with both of total cases per one million populations (rho = 0.11; p-value = 0.327) and deaths per one million populations (rho = -0.02; p-value = 0.829). Claims regarding the possible protective effect of measles vaccination seem to be doubtful.

Correlation between polio immunization coverage and overall morbidity and mortality for COVID-19: an epidemiological study.

We conducted the current analysis to determine the potential role of polio vaccination in the context of the spread of COVID-19. Data were extracted from the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Health Observatory data repository regarding the polio immunization coverage estimates and correlated to the overall morbidity and mortality for COVID-19 among different countries. Data were analyzed using R software version 4.0.2. Mean and standard deviation were used to represent continuous variables while we used frequencies and percentages to represent categorical variables. The Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for continuous variables since they were not normally distributed. Moreover, the Spearman rank correlation coefficient (rho) was used to determine the relationship between different variables. There was a significantly positive correlation between the vaccine coverage (%) and both of total cases per one million populations (rho = 0.37; p-value < 0.001) and deaths per one million populations (rho = 0.30; p-value < 0.001). Moreover, there was a significant correlation between different income groups and each of vaccine coverage (%) (rho = 0.71; p-value < 0.001), total cases per one million populations (rho = 0.50; p-value < 0.001), and deaths per one million populations (rho = 0.39; p-value < 0.001). All claims regarding the possible protective effect of Polio vaccination do not have any support when analyzing the related data. Polio vaccination efforts should be limited to eradicate the disease from endemic countries; however, there is no evidence to support the immunization with live-attenuated vaccines for the protection against COVID-19.