Falls in older aged adults in 22 European countries: incidence, mortality and burden of disease from 1990 to 2017.

INTRODUCTION: Falls in older aged adults are an important public health problem. Insight into differences in fall-related injury rates between countries can serve as important input for identifying and evaluating prevention strategies. The objectives of this study were to compare Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates on incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to fall-related injury in older adults across 22 countries in the Western European region and to examine changes over a 28-year period. METHODS: We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2017 results on age-standardised fall-related injury in older adults aged 70 years and older in 22 countries from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: In 2017, in the Western European region, 13 840 per 100 000 (uncertainty interval (UI) 11 837-16 113) older adults sought medical treatment for fall-related injury, ranging from 7594 per 100 000 (UI 6326-9032) in Greece to 19 796 per 100 000 (UI 15 536-24 233) in Norway. Since 1990, fall-related injury DALY rates showed little change for the whole region, but patterns varied widely between countries. Some countries (eg, Belgium and Netherlands) have lost their favourable positions due to an increasing fall-related injury burden of disease since 1990. CONCLUSIONS: From 1990 to 2017, there was considerable variation in fall-related injury incidence, mortality, DALY rates and its composites in the 22 countries in the Western European region. It may be useful to assess which fall prevention measures have been taken in countries that showed continuous low or decreasing incidence, death and DALY rates despite ageing of the population.

Epidemiology of facial fractures: incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) has historically produced estimates of causes of injury such as falls but not the resulting types of injuries that occur. The objective of this study was to estimate the global incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to facial fractures and to estimate the leading injurious causes of facial fracture. METHODS: We obtained results from GBD 2017. First, the study estimated the incidence from each injury cause (eg, falls), and then the proportion of each cause that would result in facial fracture being the most disabling injury. Incidence, prevalence and YLDs of facial fractures are then calculated across causes. RESULTS: Globally, in 2017, there were 7 538 663 (95% uncertainty interval 6 116 489 to 9 493 113) new cases, 1 819 732 (1 609 419 to 2 091 618) prevalent cases, and 117 402 (73 266 to 169 689) YLDs due to facial fractures. In terms of age-standardised incidence, prevalence and YLDs, the global rates were 98 (80 to 123) per 100 000, 23 (20 to 27) per 100 000, and 2 (1 to 2) per 100 000, respectively. Facial fractures were most concentrated in Central Europe. Falls were the predominant cause in most regions. CONCLUSIONS: Facial fractures are predominantly caused by falls and occur worldwide. Healthcare systems and public health agencies should investigate methods of all injury prevention. It is important for healthcare systems in every part of the world to ensure access to treatment resources.

Educational inequalities in fracture-related mortality using multiple cause of death data in the Skåne region, Sweden.

Aim: To assess the absolute and relative educational inequalities in mortality from hip and non-hip fractures in Skåne region, Sweden. Methods: We conducted a population-based open cohort study. People aged 30-99 years, resident in the region during 1998-2013 (n = 999, 148) were followed until death, their 100th birthday, relocation outside Skåne, or the end of 2014. We obtained individual-level data from the Statistics Sweden and the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare's Cause of Death Register. Death certificates coded with any fracture diagnosis were defined as fracture-related deaths. Educational inequalities were assessed by slope and relative indices of inequality (SII and RII). Cox regression and additive hazard models were used to estimates these indices. Results: During a mean follow-up of 12.2 years, there were 5,121 fracture-related deaths, of which 3,110 were associated with hip fracture. Age-standardized, hip fracture-related mortality rates per 100,000 person-years were 31, 95% confidence interval (CI) (30, 32) and 23 (20, 26) in people with low and high levels of education, respectively (rate ratio 1.4, 95% CI (1.2, 1.5)). Corresponding mortality rates for non-hip-fracture related deaths were 20 (18, 21) and 16 (14, 19) (rate ratio 1.2, 95% CI (1.0, 1.4)). SII and RII revealed educational inequalities in hip fracture-related mortality in favour of highly educated people. For non hip fracture-related mortality, there were statistically significant educational inequalities in people aged <70 years. Conclusions: We found higher fracture-related mortality with lower education suggesting preventative and therapeutic interventions for fractures should pay special attention to people with low-level education.

Educational inequalities in mortality associated with rheumatoid arthritis and other musculoskeletal disorders in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders are less likely to be reported as an underlying cause of death (UCD) and since cause of death studies are generally limited to the UCD, little is known about socioeconomic inequalities in MSK disorders as cause of death in the general population. Using multiple-cause-of-death data, we aimed to quantify and compare educational inequalities in musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders- with non-MSK disorders-related mortality. METHODS: All residents aged 30-99 years in the Skåne region, Sweden, during 1998-2013 (n = 999,148) were followed until their 100th birthday, death, relocation outside Skåne, or end of 2014. We identified any mention of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or other MSK disorders on death certificates using multiple-cause-of-death data. We retrieved and linked individual-level data from Statistics Sweden on highest level of education. We used Cox regression and additive hazards models with age as time-scale adjusted for sex, marital status, and country of birth to calculate slope and relative indices of inequality (SII/RII). RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 12.2 years, there were 1407 (0.8% of all deaths) and 3725 (2.1% of all deaths) death certificates with mention of RA and other MSK disorders, respectively, and 171,798 death certificates without any mention of a MSK disorder. Age-standardized RA mortality rate was 2.2 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.0-2.8) times greater in people with 0-9 years of education compared with those with > 12 years of education. Corresponding figure for other MSK disorders was 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6). Both RIIs and SIIs revealed statistically significant educational inequalities in RA/other MSK disorders mortality favouring high-educated people. The RIIs of MSK disorders-related deaths were generally greater than non-MSK disorders-related deaths. CONCLUSION: We found substantial educational inequality in mortality from MSK disorders. Further research is needed to investigate underlying pathways driving these inequalities.

Fall-related mortality in southern Sweden: a multiple cause of death analysis, 1998-2014.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate temporal trend in fall mortality among adults (aged ≥20 years) in southern Sweden using multiple cause of death data. METHODS: We examined all death certificates (DCs, n=2 01 488) in adults recorded in the Skåne region during 1998-2014. We identified all fall deaths using International Statistical Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes (W00-W19) and calculated the mortality rates by age and sex. Temporal trends were evaluated using joinpoint regression and associated causes were identified by age-adjusted and sex-adjusted observed/expected ratios. RESULTS: Falls were mentioned on 1.0% and selected as underlying cause in 0.7% of all DCs, with the highest frequency among those aged ≥70 years. The majority (75.6%) of fall deaths were coded as unspecified fall (ICD-10 code: W19) followed by falling on or from stairs/steps (7.7%, ICD-10 code: W10) and other falls on the same level (6.3%, ICD-10 code: W18). The mean age at fall deaths increased from 77.5 years in 1998-2002 to 82.9 years in 2010-2014 while for other deaths it increased from 78.5 to 79.8 years over the same period. The overall mean age-standardised rate of fall mortality was 8.3 and 4.0 per 1 00 000 person-years in men and women, respectively, and increased by 1.7% per year in men and 0.8% per year in women during 1998-2014. Head injury and diseases of the circulatory system were recorded as contributing cause on 48.7% of fall deaths. CONCLUSIONS: There is an increasing trend of deaths due to falls in southern Sweden. Further investigations are required to explain this observation particularly among elderly men.

Temporal trend and regional disparity in osteoarthritis hospitalisations in Sweden 1998-2015.

AIM: This study investigated time trend and regional disparities in hospitalisations due to osteoarthritis (OA) among people aged ≥20 years in Sweden from 1998 through 2015. METHODS: National and regional data on hospital admissions with a primary diagnosis of OA were collected from the National Patient Register. The absolute and relative regional disparities were assessed using the absolute weighted mean difference from overall mean and the index of disparity. We applied joinpoint regression for temporal trend analysis of hospitalisations and the Mann-Kendall trend test for disparity measures. Changes in number of OA hospitalisations between 1998-2000 and 2013-2015 were analysed using two counterfactual scenarios. RESULTS: During 1998-2015, OA hospitalisations constituted 2.0% of all hospitalisations, with higher proportions among women (58.7%) and those aged 70-74 years (18.0%). The age-standardised rate of OA hospitalisation and its proportions from all and musculoskeletal disorders hospitalisations rose, on average, by >2.0% per year during the study period. OA hospitalisation rates rose statistically significantly in all age groups except for the youngest and oldest age groups. The proportion of hip OA from all OA hospitalisations declined, while the opposite was observed for knee OA. The relative regional disparities declined in men, and the absolute regional disparities rose among women over time. The population growth and ageing could explain only about one third of the observed increases in the absolute number of OA hospitalisations between 1998-2000 and 2013-2015. CONCLUSIONS: OA hospitalisations have increased substantially, suggesting the need to improve OA prevention and primary-care management in Sweden.

Cost effectiveness of HIV and sexual reproductive health interventions targeting sex workers: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Sex workers have high incidences of HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases. Although, interventions targeting sex workers have shown to be effective, evidence on which strategies are most cost-effective is limited. This study aims to systematically review evidence on the cost-effectiveness of sexual health interventions for sex workers on a global level. It also evaluates the quality of available evidence and summarizes the drivers of cost effectiveness. METHODS: A search of published articles until May 2018 was conducted. A search strategy consisted of key words, MeSH terms and other free text terms related to economic evaluation, sex workers and sexual and reproductive health (SRH) was developed to conduct literature search on Medline, Web of Science, Econlit and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database. The quality of reporting the evidence was evaluated using the CHEERS checklist and drivers of cost-effectiveness were reported. RESULTS: Overall, 19 studies met the inclusion criteria. The majority of the studies were based in middle-income countries and only three in low-income settings. Most of the studies were conducted in Asia and only a handful in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. The reviewed studies mainly evaluated the integrated interventions, i.e. interventions consisted a combination of biomedical, structural or behavioural components. All interventions, except for one, were highly cost-effective. The reporting quality of the evidence was relatively good. The strongest drivers of cost-effectiveness, reported in the studies, were HIV prevalence, number of partners per sex worker and commodity costs. Furthermore, interventions integrated into existing health programs were shown to be most cost-effective. CONCLUSION: This review found that there is limited economic evidence on HIV and SRH interventions targeting sex workers. The available evidence indicates that the majority of the HIV and SRH interventions targeting sex workers are highly cost-effective, however, more effort should be devoted to improving the quality of conducting and reporting cost-effectiveness evidence for these interventions to make them usable in policy making. This review identified potential factors that affect the cost-effectiveness and can provide useful information for policy makers when designing and implementing such interventions.

Hospitalizations due to systemic connective tissue diseases: Secular trends and regional disparities in Sweden, 1998-2016.

AIM: To investigate secular trends and regional disparities in hospitalizations due to systemic connective tissue diseases (SCTD) in Sweden from 1998 to 2016. METHOD: We identified all hospital admissions with a principal diagnosis of SCTD (ICD-10 codes: M30-M36) from the Swedish National Patient Register. Joinpoint regression was used to assess secular trends in age-standardized hospitalization rates (ASHR) and proportions of SCTD from all and musculoskeletal disorders hospitalizations. We also assessed the secular trends in the absolute and relative regional disparities of SCTD hospitalizations. RESULTS: We identified 89 333 SCTD hospitalizations (0.3% of all hospitalizations), of these about 69% were for women and 49% of patients were aged 15-64 years. Polyarteritis nodosa and related conditions (PANRC) and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) were the most frequent SCTD among those aged <10 years and 10-54 years, respectively. Joinpoint regression suggested that both rates and proportions of SCTD hospitalizations declined over time. These trends persisted among sex, age and diagnosis subgroups except for PANRC in patients aged 0-19 years who observed an average annual increase of 3.4% (95% CI: 1.8, 5.1) over the study period. There were 2.4-fold (95% CI: 2.3-2.5) difference between the regions with the highest and lowest mean ASHR. There was no statistically significant secular trend in the relative regional disparities, whereas the absolute regional disparity declined over time. CONCLUSION: There were substantial decreases in the absolute and relative burden of SCTD hospitalizations reflecting possible improvements in disease management in Sweden. The rising trend in PANRC among the youngest children warrants further investigation.

Socio-demographic and economics factors associated with suicide mortality in Iran, 2001-2010: application of a decomposition model.

BACKGROUND: Suicide is a major global health problem, especially among youth. Suicide is known to be associated with a variety of social, economic, political and religious factors, vary across geographical and cultural regions. The current study aimed to investigate the effects of socioeconomic factors on suicide mortality rate across different regions in Iran. METHODS: The data on distribution of population and socio-economic factors (such as unemployment rate, divorce rate, urbanization rate, average household expenditure etc.) at province level were obtained from the Statistical Centre of Iran and the National Organization for Civil Registration. The data on the annual number of deaths caused by suicide in each province was extracted from the published reports of the Iranian Forensic Medicine Organization. We used a decomposition model to distinguish between spatial and temporal variation in suicide mortality. RESULTS: The average rate of suicide mortality was 5.5 per 100,000 population over the study period. Across the provinces (spatial variation), suicide mortality rate was positively associated with household expenditure and the proportion of people aged 15-24 and older than 65 years and was negatively associated with the proportion of literate people. Within the provinces (temporal variation), higher divorce rate was associated with higher suicide mortality. By excluding the outlier provinces, the results showed that in addition to the proportion of people aged 15-24 and older than 65, divorce and unemployment rates were also significant predictors of spatial variation in suicide mortality while divorce rate was associated with higher suicide mortality within provinces. CONCLUSION: The findings indicate that both spatial and temporal variations in suicide mortality rates across the provinces and over time are determined by a number of socio-economic factors. The study provides information that can be of importance in developing preventive strategies.

Temporal trends and regional disparity in rheumatoid arthritis and gout hospitalizations in Sweden, 1998-2015.

Hospitalization is an important component of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and gout economic burden. This study aimed to assess temporal trends and regional disparities in RA and gout hospitalizations among people aged ≥ 20 years in Sweden during 1998-2015. Data on hospital admissions with a principal diagnosis of RA or gout were collected from the National Patient Register. Age-standardized hospitalization rates (ASHRs) were calculated by means of direct standardization. The absolute and relative regional disparities were assessed. The temporal trends in ASHR and proportion of RA and gout hospitalizations from all and musculoskeletal disorders hospitalizations were analyzed using joinpoint regression. Between 1998-2000 and 2013-2015, the ASHR for RA declined by 78.9% from 109.9 to 23.2 per 100,000 Swedish adults, while it almost doubled for gout (from 10.5 to 20.8 per 100,000 Swedish adults). While in 1998-2000, RA hospitalizations were 10.3 times more frequent than gout (0.54 vs 0.05% of all hospitalizations), this ratio declined to 1.1 in 2013-2015 (0.13 vs 0.11% of all hospitalizations). The joinpoint regression revealed that, on average, the ASHR for RA declined by 10.2% (95% CI: 9.3-11.1) per year whereas for gout, it rose by 4.3% (3.2-5.4) per year during 1998-2015. While the relative regional disparities were stable, the absolute regional disparity declined for RA and increased for gout over the study period. While substantial decline in RA hospitalization is encouraging, the substantial rise in gout hospitalization is of concern, reflecting potential increase in prevalence of gout and suboptimal management of the disease.

High and rising burden of hip and knee osteoarthritis in the Nordic region, 1990-2015.

Background and purpose - Osteoarthritis (OA) imposes a substantial burden on individuals and societies. We report on the burden of knee and hip OA in the Nordic region. Patients and methods - We used the findings from the 2015 Global Burden of Diseases Study to explore prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of OA in the 6 Nordic countries during 1990-2015 (population of about 27 million in 2015). Results - During 1990-2015, the number of prevalent OA cases increased by 43% to 1,507,587 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1,454,338-1,564,778) in the region. OA accounted for 1.3% (UI 1.0-1.7) of YLDs in 1990, increasing to 1.6% (UI 1.2-2.0) in 2015. Of 315 causes studied, OA was the 15th leading cause of YLDs, causing 52,661 (UI 34,056-77,499) YLDs in 2015; of these 23% were attributable to high body mass index. The highest relative importance of OA was reported for women aged 65-74 years (8th leading cause of YLDs in 2015). Among the top 30 leading causes of YLDs in the region, OA had the 5th greatest relative increase in total YLDs during 1990-2015. From 1990 to 2015, increase in age-standardized YLDs from OA in the region was slightly lower than increase at the global level (7.5% vs. 10.5%). OA was, however, responsible for a higher proportional burden of DALYs in the region compared with the global level. Interpretation - The OA burden is high and rising in the Nordic region. With population growth, aging, and the obesity epidemic, a substantial rise in the burden of OA is expected and should be addressed in health policies.

Fracture-related mortality in southern Sweden: A multiple cause of death analysis, 1998-2014.

PURPOSE: To assess fracture-related mortality among adults (aged ≥20years) in southern Sweden using multiple causes of death approach. METHODS: All death certificates (n=201 488) in adults recorded in the region of Skåne from 1998 to 2014 were examined. We identified fracture-related deaths and computed mortality rates by sex, age group, and fracture site. Temporal trends were evaluated using joinpoint regression and associated causes were identified by age- and sex-adjusted observed/expected ratios. RESULTS: Fractures were mentioned on 6 226 (3.1%) death certificates, with majority of these occurred among women (60%) and those aged≥80years (77%). While hip was the most common site overall (61% of all fracture-related deaths), skull was the most common site in people <60years (60% of all fracture-related deaths). Proportion of death certificates mentioning fracture was stable in women but increased by 0.4% (95% CI: 0.1 to 0.6) in men between 1998-2002 and 2010-2014. The mean age at death was higher in death certificates mentioning fracture than those without and this gap widened over time. The mean age-standardized fracture-related mortality rate was 18.8 (14.0) per 100 000 person-year in men (women) and declined by 1.5% (1.3%) per year during 1998-2014. Injuries (84.6%) and cardiovascular disorders (64.6%) were the most common comorbidities on death certificates mentioning fracture. CONCLUSIONS: Fracture is a contributing cause of death in more than 3% of all deaths in southern Sweden with hip in lead among older and skull fracture among younger people. There was a slight increase in proportion of deaths associated with fracture in men but not women during the study period.

A Comparison of Iran and UK EQ-5D-3L Value Sets Based on Visual Analogue Scale.

BACKGROUND: Preference weights for EQ-5D-3L based on visual analogue scale (VAS) has recently been developed in Iran. The aim of the current study was to compare performance of this value set against the UK VAS-based value set. METHODS: The mean scores for all possible 243 health states were compared using Student t test. Absolute agreement and consistency were investigated using concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) and Bland-Altman plot. Health gains for 29 403 possible transitions between pairs of EQ-5D-3L health states were compared. Responsiveness to change and discriminative ability across subgroups of health transitions were assessed. RESULTS: The mean EQ-5D-3L scores were similar for two value sets (mean = 0.31, P = 1.00). For 36% of health states, the absolute differences were greater than 0.10. There were three pairwise logical inconsistencies in the Iranian value set. The Iranian scores were lower (higher) for severe (mild) health states than the United Kingdom. The CCC (95% CI) was 0.85 (0.81 to 0.88) and Bland-Altman plot showed good agreement. The mean health gain for all possible transitions predicted by the Iranian value set was higher (0.22 vs. 0.20, P < .001) and two value sets predicted opposite transitions in 15% of transitions. The responsiveness of these two value sets were similar with lower discriminative ability for Iranian value set. CONCLUSION: The Iranian value set attribute lower values to most severe health states and higher values to mild health states compared with the UK value set. Such systematic differences might translate into discrepant health gains and cost-effectiveness which should be taking into account for informed decision-making.

Prevalence and Years Lived with Disability of 310 Diseases and Injuries in Iran and its Neighboring Countries, 1990-2015: Findings from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Due to significant achievements in reducing mortality and increasing life expectancy, the issue of disability from diseases and injuries, and their related interventions, has become one of the most important concerns of health-related research. METHODS: Using data obtained from the GBD 2015 study, the present report provides prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of 310 diseases and injuries by sex and age in Iran and neighboring countries over the period 1990-2015. Age-standardized rates of all causes of YLDs are presented for both males and females in 16 countries for 1990 and 2015. We present the percentage of total YLDs for 21 categories of diseases and injuries, the percentage of YLDs for age groups, as well as the ranking of the most prevalent causes and YLDs from the top 50 diseases and injuries in Iran. RESULTS: In 2015, the burden of 310 diseases and injuries among the Iranian population was responsible for 8,357,878 loss of all-age total years, which is equal to 10.58% of total years lived per year. This differs from the neighboring countries, as it ranges from 9.05% in Turkmenistan to 13.36% in Russia. During the past 25 years, a remarkable decrease was observed in all-cause YLD rates in all 16 countries. Meanwhile, in all countries, the age-standardized rate of all causes of YLDs was higher in females than males. CONCLUSION: Based on our findings, one of the remarkable changes in NCDs observed among the studied age groups was increased rate of YLDs from mental disorders, which was replaced by musculoskeletal disorders in older age groups in 2015.

Burden of Skin and Subcutaneous Diseases in Iran and Neighboring Countries: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Iran and its neighboring countries represent four world regions with unique cultures and geography. Skin diseases span a wide diversity of etiologies including infectious, inflammatory, autoimmune, vascular, neurogenic, and oncologic. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2015 measures the burden from skin diseases in 195 countries. METHODS: Epidemiologic data were collected from literature review, survey data, and hospital inpatient/outpatient claims data. These raw data entered modeling using a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod MR-2.1, which yielded prevalence estimates by age/sex/location/year. Prevalence estimates were combined with disability weights to yield years lived with disability (YLDs). YLDs are combined with years of life lost (YLLs), from mortality estimates, to yield disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). DALYs were obtained for 16 skin conditions and both sexes in Iran and 15 surrounding countries. The sociodemographic index (SDI) for each country was also correlated with skin disease DALY rate using the Pearson coefficient (r) with two-tailed P-value. RESULTS: There was no significant correlation between individual skin diseases and SDI. Acne and dermatitis caused the greatest burden and BCC the lowest burden of skin diseases in Iran and the other 15 countries. SCC and BCC were responsible for the largest discrepancy by sex, with higher burden in males compared to females. CONCLUSION: Skin diseases, particularly dermatitis and acne, cause considerable burden in Iran and surrounding regions. Objective and transparent epidemiologic data such as GBD has the potential to inform and impact many facets of healthcare, research prioritization, public policy, and international partnerships.

Brief Report: Rheumatoid Arthritis as the Underlying Cause of Death in Thirty-One Countries, 1987-2011: Trend Analysis of World Health Organization Mortality Database.

OBJECTIVE: To examine trends in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) as an underlying cause of death (UCD) in 31 countries across the world from 1987 to 2011. METHODS: Data on mortality and population were collected from the World Health Organization mortality database and from the United Nations Population Prospects database. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated by means of direct standardization. We applied joinpoint regression analysis to identify trends. Between-country disparities were examined using between-country variance and the Gini coefficient. Due to low numbers of deaths, we smoothed the ASMRs using a 3-year moving average. Changes in the number of RA deaths between 1987 and 2011 were decomposed using 2 counterfactual scenarios. RESULTS: The absolute number of deaths with RA registered as the UCD decreased from 9,281 (0.12% of all-cause deaths) in 1987 to 8,428 (0.09% of all-cause deaths) in 2011. The mean ASMR decreased from 7.1 million person-years in 1987-1989 to 3.7 million person-years in 2009-2011 (48.2% reduction). A reduction of ≥25% in the ASMR occurred in 21 countries, while a corresponding increase was observed in 3 countries. There was a persistent reduction in RA mortality, and on average, the ASMR declined by 3.0% per year. The absolute and relative between-country disparities decreased during the study period. CONCLUSION: The rates of mortality attributable to RA have declined globally. However, we observed substantial between-country disparities in RA mortality, although these disparities decreased over time. Population aging combined with a decline in RA mortality may lead to an increase in the economic burden of disease that should be taken into consideration in policy-making.

Mortality from Musculoskeletal Disorders Including Rheumatoid Arthritis in Southern Sweden: A Multiple-cause-of-death Analysis, 1998-2014.

OBJECTIVE: To assess mortality related to musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders and rheumatoid arthritis (RA), specifically, among adults (aged ≥ 20 yrs) in southern Sweden using the multiple-cause-of-death approach. METHODS: All death certificates (DC; n = 201,488) from 1998 to 2014 for adults in the region of Skåne were analyzed when mortality from MSK disorders and RA was listed as the underlying and nonunderlying cause of death (UCD/NUCD). Trends in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were evaluated using joinpoint regression, and associated causes were identified by age- and sex-adjusted observed/expected ratios. RESULTS: MSK (RA) was mentioned on 2.8% (0.8%) of all DC and selected as UCD in 0.6% (0.2%), with higher values among women. Proportion of MSK disorder deaths from all deaths increased from 2.7% in 1998 to 3.1% in 2014, and declined from 0.9% to 0.5% for RA. The mean age at death was higher in DC with mention of MSK/RA than in DC without. The mean ASMR for MSK (RA) was 15.5 (4.3) per 100,000 person-years and declined by 1.1% (3.8%) per year during 1998-2014. When MSK/RA were UCD, pneumonia and heart failure were the main NUCD. When MSK/RA were NUCD, the leading UCD were ischemic heart disease and neoplasms. The greatest observed/expected ratios were seen for infectious diseases (including sepsis) and blood diseases. CONCLUSION: We observed significant reduction in MSK and RA mortality rates and increase in the mean age at death. Further analyses are required to investigate determinants of these improvements in MSK/RA survival and their potential effect on the Swedish healthcare systems.

Musculoskeletal disorders as underlying cause of death in 58 countries, 1986-2011: trend analysis of WHO mortality database.

BACKGROUND: Due to low mortality rate of musculoskeletal disorders (MSK) less attention has been paid to MSK as underlying cause of death in the general population. The aim was to examine trend in MSK as underlying cause of death in 58 countries across globe during 1986-2011. METHODS: Data on mortality were collected from the WHO mortality database and population data were obtained from the United Nations. Annual sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated by means of direct standardization using the WHO world standard population. We applied joinpoint regression analysis for trend analysis. Between-country disparities were examined using between-country variance and Gini coefficient. The changes in number of MSK deaths between 1986 and 2011 were decomposed using two counterfactual scenarios. RESULTS: The number of MSK deaths increased by 67% between 1986 and 2011 mainly due to population aging. The mean ASMR changed from 17.2 and 26.6 per million in 1986 to 18.1 and 25.1 in 2011 among men and women, respectively (median: 7.3% increase in men and 9.0% reduction in women). Declines in ASMR of 25% or more were observed for men (women) in 13 (19) countries, while corresponding increases were seen for men (women) in 25 (14) countries. In both sexes, ASMR declined during 1986-1997, then increased during 1997-2001 and again declined over 2001-2011. Despite decline over time, there were substantial between-country disparities in MSK mortality and its temporal trend. CONCLUSIONS: We found substantial variations in MSK mortality and its trends between countries, regions and also between sex and age groups. Promoted awareness and better management of MSK might partly explain reduction in MSK mortality, but variations across countries warrant further investigations.

Assessing the external validity of algorithms to estimate EQ-5D-3L from the WOMAC.

BACKGROUND: The use of mapping algorithms have been suggested as a solution to predict health utilities when no preference-based measure is included in the study. However, validity and predictive performance of these algorithms are highly variable and hence assessing the accuracy and validity of algorithms before use them in a new setting is of importance. The aim of the current study was to assess the predictive accuracy of three mapping algorithms to estimate the EQ-5D-3L from the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) among Swedish people with knee disorders. Two of these algorithms developed using ordinary least squares (OLS) models and one developed using mixture model. METHODS: The data from 1078 subjects mean (SD) age 69.4 (7.2) years with frequent knee pain and/or knee osteoarthritis from the Malmö Osteoarthritis study in Sweden were used. The algorithms' performance was assessed using mean error, mean absolute error, and root mean squared error. Two types of prediction were estimated for mixture model: weighted average (WA), and conditional on estimated component (CEC). RESULTS: The overall mean was overpredicted by an OLS model and underpredicted by two other algorithms (P < 0.001). All predictions but the CEC predictions of mixture model had a narrower range than the observed scores (22 to 90 %). All algorithms suffered from overprediction for severe health states and underprediction for mild health states with lesser extent for mixture model. While the mixture model outperformed OLS models at the extremes of the EQ-5D-3D distribution, it underperformed around the center of the distribution. CONCLUSIONS: While algorithm based on mixture model reflected the distribution of EQ-5D-3L data more accurately compared with OLS models, all algorithms suffered from systematic bias. This calls for caution in applying these mapping algorithms in a new setting particularly in samples with milder knee problems than original sample. Assessing the impact of the choice of these algorithms on cost-effectiveness studies through sensitivity analysis is recommended.

Association of knee pain and different definitions of knee osteoarthritis with health-related quality of life: a population-based cohort study in southern Sweden.

BACKGROUND: While the impact of knee pain and knee osteoarthritis (OA) on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) has been investigated in the literature, there is a lack of knowledge on the impact of different definitions of OA on HRQoL. The main aim of this study was to measure and compare the impact of knee OA and its different definitions on HRQoL in the general population. METHODS: A random sample of 1300 participants from Malmö, Sweden with pain in one or both knees in the past 12 months with duration ≥4 weeks and 650 participants without were invited to clinical and radiographic knee examination. A total of 1527 individuals with a mean (SD) age 69.4 (7.2) participated and responded to both generic (EQ-5D-3L) and disease-specific (the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score) questionnaires. Knee pain was defined as pain during the last month during most of the days. Knee OA was defined radiographically (equivalent to Kellgren and Lawrence grade ≥2) and clinically according to the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria. RESULTS: Of participants with either knee pain or knee OA or both, 7 % reported no problem for the EQ-5D-3L attributes. The corresponding proportion among references (neither knee pain nor OA) was 42 %. The participants with knee pain and OA had all HRQoL measures lower compared to those with knee pain but no OA. The ACR clinical definition of knee OA was associated with lower HRQoL than the definition based on radiographic knee OA (adjusted difference -0.08 in UK EQ-5D-3L index score). CONCLUSIONS: Applying different definitions of knee OA result in different levels of HRQoL and this is mainly explained by the knee pain experience. These differences may lead to discrepant conclusions from cost-utility analyses.