Using Resource Allocation Modeling to Inform HIV Prevention Priority Setting for Baltimore-Towson, Maryland.

PROBLEM: In 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) launched the "Enhanced Comprehensive HIV Prevention Planning" initiative, which targeted funding to the 12 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with the most severe epidemics of human immunodeficiency virus infection to a) develop a plan to align each MSA's HIV prevention plan with the National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS) and b) identify and implement the optimal combination of prevention services to reduce new infections. PURPOSE: This paper describes how the Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DHMH) partnered with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (JHSPH) to conduct mathematical modeling and economic analyses to inform local planning for resource allocation and intervention design for the Baltimore-Towson MSA. KEY POINTS: The paper outlines the steps of building and implementing that analytic partnership, illustrates how results were discussed with other key stakeholders, and shows how the findings informed local priority setting. CONCLUSION: The paper demonstrates how health departments, academia, and community partners can jointly use policy modeling to improve resource allocation and address urgent public health challenges.

Unmet HIV service needs among Black men who have sex with men in the United States.

The National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS) clearly emphasized the need to provide services to black men who have sex with men (MSM). However, there are no estimates of the unmet HIV-related service delivery needs among black MSM. We estimate that of 195,313 black MSM living with HIV in the US, 50,196 were not yet diagnosed, and 145,118 were aware of their seropositivity (of whom 67,625 were not linked to care and 77,493 were linked to care). Also, of those already diagnosed, ~43,390 had undetectable viral load and 101,728 had detectable viral load. Approximately 19,545 of diagnosed black MSM engage in unprotected risk behavior in serostatus-discordant partnerships. The cost of delivering services needed to meet the NHAS goals is ~$2.475 billion in 2011 U.S. dollars. Mathematical modeling suggests that provisions of these services would avert 6213 HIV infections at an economically favorable cost of $20,032 per quality-adjusted life year saved.

Employing resource allocation modeling to inform HIV prevention planning for the state of Iowa.

In fiscal year (FY) 2012, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reallocated their HIV prevention funding to U.S. states, territories, and some cities so as to be more highly correlated with 2008 HIV prevalence. A jurisdiction's HIV prevention funding could drop as low as $750,000 for FY 2016. Iowa was one state that experienced a substantial funding drop, and it chose to undertake a mathematical modeling exercise to inform the following questions: (a) Given current HIV prevention funding for the state, what is the optimal allocation of resources to maximize infections averted? (b) With this "optimal" resource allocation, how many (and what percentage of) HIV infections in the state can be averted? (c) Is the optimal resource allocation sufficient to achieve the National HIV/AIDS Strategy goal of 25% reduction in HIV incidence? and (d) With the "optimal" resource allocation, is the return on the investment such that it might be considered cost-effective? Here, we describe the results of the policy analysis, and the uses of the results.