Can routine blood tests be modelled to detect advanced liver disease in the community: model derivation and validation using UK primary and secondary care data.

OBJECTIVES: Most patients are unaware they have liver cirrhosis until they present with a decompensating event. We therefore aimed to develop and validate an algorithm to predict advanced liver disease (AdvLD) using data widely available in primary care. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Logistic regression was performed on routinely collected blood result data from the University Hospital Southampton (UHS) information systems for 16 967 individuals who underwent an upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (2005-2016). Data were used to create a model aimed at detecting AdvLD: 'CIRRhosis Using Standard tests' (CIRRUS). Prediction of a first serious liver event (SLE) was then validated in two cohorts of 394 253 (UHS: primary and secondary care) and 183 045 individuals (Care and Health Information Exchange (CHIE): primary care). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Model creation dataset: cirrhosis or portal hypertension. Validation datasets: SLE (gastro-oesophageal varices, liver-related ascites or cirrhosis). RESULTS: In the model creation dataset, 931 SLEs were recorded (5.5%). CIRRUS detected cirrhosis or portal hypertension with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.92). Overall, 3044 (0.8%) and 1170 (0.6%) SLEs were recorded in the UHS and CHIE validation cohorts, respectively. In the UHS cohort, CIRRUS predicted a first SLE within 5 years with an AUC of 0.90 (0.89 to 0.91) continuous, 0.88 (0.87 to 0.89) categorised (crimson, red, amber, green grades); and AUC 0.84 (0.82 to 0.86) and 0.83 (0.81 to 0.85) for the CHIE cohort. In patients with a specified liver risk factor (alcohol, diabetes, viral hepatitis), a crimson/red cut-off predicted a first SLE with a sensitivity of 72%/59%, specificity 87%/93%, positive predictive value 26%/18% and negative predictive value 98%/99% for the UHS/CHIE validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSION: Identification of individuals at risk of AdvLD within primary care using routinely available data may provide an opportunity for earlier intervention and prevention of liver-related morbidity and mortality.

Local care and treatment of liver disease (LOCATE) - A cluster-randomized feasibility study to discover, assess and manage early liver disease in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver disease is an escalating problem both in the United Kingdom and worldwide. In the UK mortality rates have risen sharply over the previous 50 years predominantly due to alcohol, however the increasing prevalence of non-alcohol related fatty liver disease both in the UK and elsewhere is also of concern. Liver disease develops silently hence early detection of fibrosis is essential to prevent progression. Primary care presents an opportunity to identify at risk populations, however assessment largely comprises of indirect markers of fibrosis which have little prognostic value. We hypothesised that setting up nurse-led primary care based liver clinics using additional non-invasive testing would increase the number of new diagnoses of liver disease compared to usual care. METHODS: This was a prospective, cluster randomised feasibility trial based in urban primary care in Southampton, United Kingdom. 10 GP practices were randomised to either intervention (liver health nurse) or control (care as usual). Pre recruitment audits were carried out in each practice to ascertain baseline prevalence of liver disease. Participants were subsequently recruited in intervention practices from July 2014-March 2016 via one of 3 pathways: GP referral, nurse led case finding based on risk factors or random AUDIT questionnaire mailouts. Liver assessment included the Southampton Traffic Light test (serum fibrosis markers HA and P3NP) and transient elastography (FibroScan). Cases were ascribed as 'no fibrosis', 'liver warning', 'progressive fibrosis' or 'probable cirrhosis'. Post recruitment audits were repeated and incident liver diagnoses captured from July 2014-September 2016. Each new diagnosis was reviewed in a virtual clinic by a consultant hepatologist. FINDINGS: 910 participants were seen in the nurse led clinic-44 (4.8%) probable cirrhosis, 141 (15.5%) progressive fibrosis, 220 (24.2%) liver warning and 505 (55.5%) no evidence of liver fibrosis. 450 (49.5%) cases were due to NAFLD with 356 (39.1%) from alcohol. In the 405 with a liver disease diagnosis, 136 (33.6%) were referred by GP, 218 (53.8%) from nurse led case finding and 51 (12.6%) from the AUDIT mailout. 544 incident cases were identified in the intervention arm compared to 221 in the control arm in the period July 2014-September 2016 (adjusted odds ratio 2.4, 95% CI 2.1 to 2.8). CONCLUSIONS: The incorporation of a liver health nurse into GP practices was simple to arrange and yielded a much higher number of new diagnoses of liver disease compared to usual care. Nearly half of all participants recruited had a degree of liver disease. Nurse led case finding and GP referrals were most effective compared to AUDIT questionnaire mailouts in an urban population in identifying unknown disease. Utilising study and previous data allowed quick and effective virtual review by a hepatologist. Identifying those who are at risk of liver disease from harmful alcohol use remains a challenge and needs to be addressed in future work.

Analysis of After-Hours Patient Telephone Calls in Two Academic Radiation Oncology Departments: An Opportunity for Improvement in Patient Safety and Quality of Care.

PURPOSE: Patient care within radiation oncology extends beyond the clinic or treatment hours. The on-call radiation oncologist is often not a patient's primary radiation oncologist, introducing the possibility of communication breakdowns and medical errors. This study analyzed after-hours telephone calls to identify opportunities for improved patient safety and quality of care. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Patient calls received outside of business hours between July 1, 2013, and June 30, 2014, at two academic radiation oncology departments were retrospectively reviewed. All calls were analyzed using content analysis, and descriptive analyses were performed. RESULTS: During this time, 5,557 courses of radiotherapy (RT) were delivered. A total of 454 calls were received from 369 unique patients (81%), averaging 4.4 calls per week per department. Phone encounters were documented for 223 calls (49%). The calls were categorized by disease site (No., %): central nervous system (91, 20%), head and neck (78, 17%), genitourinary (53, 12%), GI (52, 12%), thoracic (51, 11%), gynecologic (30, 7%), breast (24, 5%), and other (75, 17%). Patients most often called regarding acute medical, non-RT-related issues (144 calls, 32%); acute RT-related adverse effects (127, 28%); and medication management, including refills (63, 14%). CONCLUSION: This analysis provided novel information regarding the volume of and reasons for after-hours patient-initiated telephone calls. It identified opportunities for actionable improvements in safety and quality of care, particularly with regard to documentation by on-call providers, communication with the primary radiation oncology and extended health care teams, patient education about common RT adverse effects, and medication management.

Results of the 2013-2015 Association of Residents in Radiation Oncology Survey of Chief Residents in the United States.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this project was to survey radiation oncology chief residents to define their residency experience and readiness for independent practice. METHODS AND MATERIALS: During the academic years 2013 to 2014 and 2014 to 2015, the Association of Residents in Radiation Oncology (ARRO) conducted an electronic survey of post-graduate year-5 radiation oncology residents in the United States during the final 3 months of training. Descriptive statistics are reported. RESULTS: Sixty-six chief residents completed the survey in 2013 to 2014 (53% response rate), and 69 completed the survey in 2014 to 2015 (64% response rate). Forty to 85% percent of residents reported inadequate exposure to high-dose rate and low-dose rate brachytherapy. Nearly all residents in both years (>90%) reported adequate clinical experience for the following disease sites: breast, central nervous system, gastrointestinal, genitourinary, head and neck, and lung. However, as few as 56% reported adequate experience in lymphoma or pediatric malignancies. More than 90% of residents had participated in retrospective research projects, with 20% conducting resident-led prospective clinical trials and 50% conducting basic science or translational projects. Most chief residents reported working 60 or fewer hours per week in the clinical/hospital setting and performing fewer than 15 hours per week tasks that were considered to have little or no educational value. There was more than 80% compliance with Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) work hour limits. Fifty-five percent of graduating residents intended to join an established private practice group, compared to 25% who headed for academia. Residents perceive the job market to be more competitive than previous years. CONCLUSIONS: This first update of the ARRO chief resident survey since the 2007 to 2008 academic year documents US radiation oncology residents' experiences and conditions over a 2-year period. This analysis may serve as a valuable tool for those seeking to improve training of the next generation of oncology leaders.

Treatment of stage II-III rectal cancer patients.

The role and sequencing of radiotherapy in the management of T3-4 or node-positive rectal cancer has evolved over the last few decades. Given the significant local failure rate following surgery alone, both preoperative and postoperative chemotherapy and radiotherapy have been studied to decrease local and systemic failure and improve survival in these patients. This review discusses current indications and controversies for treatment of stage II-III rectal cancer patients.

Stage migration in planning PET/CT scans in patients due to receive radiotherapy for non-small-cell lung cancer.

INTRODUCTION: This study examined rates of tumor progression in treatment-naive patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) as determined by repeat treatment-planning fluorine-18 ((18)F) fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography ((18)F-FDG PET/CT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: This study assessed patients who underwent PET/CT simulation for NSCLC stage II/III, radiation-naive, nonmetastatic NSCLC. It compared planning PET/CT with previous PET/CT images. Patients were analyzed for change in stage, treatment intent, or both. Progression was defined as a change in TNM status leading to upstaging, and standardized uptake value (SUV) velocity was defined as [(SUVscan2 - SUVscan1)/interscan interval in days]. RESULTS: Of 149 consecutive patients examined between April 2009 and April 2011, 47 had prior PET/CT scans and were included. The median age was 68 years. New nodal disease or metastatic disease was identified in 24 (51%) of 47 patients. Fourteen (30%) had evidence of extrathoracic metastatic disease; the remaining 10 (21%) had new nodal disease that required substantial alteration of treatment fields. At a scan interval of 20 days, the rate of upstaging was 17%. SUV velocity was analyzed in the subset of patients who had their studies on the identical PET/CT scanner (n = 14). Nonupstaged patients had a mean SUV velocity of 0.074 units per day, compared with 0.11 units per day in patients that were upstaged by their second PET/CT scan (P = .020). CONCLUSION: Radiation treatment planning with hybrid PET/CT scans repeated within 120 days of an initial staging PET/CT scan identified significant upstaging in more than half of patients. For a subset of patients who underwent both scans on the same instrument, SUV velocity predicts upstaging, and the difference between those upstaged and those not was statistically significant.

Defining the optimal approach to the patient with postradiation prostate-specific antigen recurrence using outcome data from a prospective randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Optimal management remains unknown following prostate-specific antigen (PSA) failure when considering comorbidity and PSA kinetics at recurrence. In order to define randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that can address this issue, this study examined factors associated with the risk of death following PSA failure. METHODS: Of 206 men randomized to RT with or without 6 months of androgen suppression therapy (AST), 108 sustained PSA failure and began AST when PSA approached 10 ng/mL and formed the study cohort. Cox regression multivariable analysis was used to determine factors associated with death following PSA failure. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 10.3 years of 108 men with PSA failure, 64 (59%) died, with 22 (34%) dying of prostate cancer (PC). Increasing PSA velocity at recurrence was associated with a significant increase in the risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.45; P = .03). Among men with no/minimal versus moderate/severe comorbidity, PC comprised 42% (20 of 48) versus 12.5% (2 of 16) of all deaths, respectively. Estimates of PC-specific and all-cause death were significantly higher when PSA velocity was greater than as compared with the median or less in men with no/minimal (P < .008) but not moderate/severe comorbidity (P > .15). CONCLUSIONS: Despite unfavorable PSA kinetics at recurrence, unhealthy men may not benefit from AST; RCTs examining intermittent AST versus surveillance are needed. For healthy men with unfavorable PSA kinetics at recurrence, PC death rates are high despite AST, which warrants RCTs to evaluate the impact on death when adding agents that prolong survival in men with metastatic castration-resistant PC to AST.

Impact of PET staging in limited-stage small-cell lung cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Although positron emission tomography computed tomography (PET-CT) has been widely used for small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) staging, no study has examined the clinical impact of PET staging in limited-stage (LS) SCLC. METHODS: We identified patients with LS-SCLC treated definitively with concurrent chemoradiation. Outcomes were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier approach, Cox regression, and competing risks method. RESULTS: We treated 54 consecutive LS-SCLC patients with concurrent chemoradiation from January 2002 to August 2010. Forty underwent PET, 14 did not, and all underwent thoracoabdominopelvic CT and magnetic resonance imaging neuroimaging. Most patient characteristics were balanced between the comparison groups, including age, race, sex, bone scanning, median dosage, and performance status. More number of PET-staged patients presented with nodal metastases (p = 0.05). Median follow-up was similar for PET-staged and non-PET-staged patients (p = 0.59). Median overall survival from diagnosis in PET-staged patients was 32 versus 17 months in patients staged without PET (p = 0.03), and 3-year survival was 47% versus 19%. Median time-to-distant failure was 29 versus 12 months (p = 0.04); median time-to-local failure was not reached versus 16 months (p = 0.04). On multivariable analysis, PET staging (odds ratio [OR] = 0.24; p = 0.04), performance status (OR = 1.89; p = 0.05), and N-stage (OR = 4.94; p < 0.01) were associated with survival. CONCLUSION: LS-SCLC patients staged with PET exhibited improved disease control and survival when compared with non-PET-staged LS-SCLC patients. Improved staging accuracy and better identification of intrathoracic disease may explain these findings, underscoring the value of PET-CT in these patients.

Intrauterine growth and postnatal skeletal development: findings from the Southampton Women's Survey.

We have previously demonstrated associations between fetal growth in late pregnancy and postnatal bone mass. However, the relationships between the intrauterine and early postnatal skeletal growth trajectory remain unknown. We addressed this in a large population-based mother-offspring cohort study. A total of 628 mother-offspring pairs were recruited from the Southampton Women's Survey. Fetal abdominal circumference was measured at 11, 19 and 34 weeks gestation using high-resolution ultrasound with femur length assessed at 19 and 34 weeks. Bone mineral content was measured postnatally in the offspring using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at birth and 4 years; postnatal linear growth was assessed at birth, 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 months. Late pregnancy abdominal circumference growth (19-34 weeks) was strongly (P < 0.01) related to bone mass at birth, but less robustly associated with bone mass at 4 years. Early pregnancy growth (11-19 weeks) was more strongly related to bone mass at 4 years than at birth. Postnatal relationships between growth and skeletal indices at 4 years were stronger for the first and second postnatal years, than the period aged 2-4 years. The proportion of children changing their place in the distribution of growth velocities progressively reduced with each year of postnatal life. The late intrauterine growth trajectory is a better predictor of skeletal growth and mineralisation at birth, while the early intrauterine growth trajectory is a more powerful determinant of skeletal status at age 4 years. The perturbations in this trajectory which influence childhood bone mass warrant further research.

Predictors of long-term pain and disability in patients with low back pain investigated by magnetic resonance imaging: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: It is possible that clinical outcome of low back pain (LBP) differs according to the presence or absence of spinal abnormalities on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), in which case there could be value in using MRI findings to refine case definition of LBP in epidemiological research. We therefore conducted a longitudinal study to explore whether spinal abnormalities on MRI for LBP predict prognosis after 18 months. METHODS: A consecutive series of patients aged 20-64 years, who were investigated by MRI because of mechanical LBP (median duration of current episode 16.2 months), were identified from three radiology departments, and those who agreed completed self-administered questionnaires at baseline and after a mean follow-up period of 18.5 months (a mean of 22.2 months from MRI investigation). MRI scans were assessed blind to other clinical information, according to a standardised protocol. Associations of baseline MRI findings with pain and disability at follow-up, adjusted for treatment and for other potentially confounding variables, were assessed by Poisson regression and summarised by prevalence ratios (PRs) with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Questionnaires were completed by 240 (74%) of the patients who had agreed to be followed up. Among these 111 men and 129 women, 175 (73%) reported LBP in the past four weeks, 89 (37%) frequent LBP, and 72 (30%) disabling LBP. In patients with initial disc degeneration there was an increased risk of frequent (PR 1.3, 95%CI 1.0-1.9) and disabling LBP (PR 1.7, 95%CI 1.1-2.5) at follow-up. No other associations were found between MRI abnormalities and subsequent outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the MRI abnormalities examined are not major predictors of outcome in patients with LBP. They give no support to the use of MRI findings as a way of refining case definition for LBP in epidemiological research.

Clinical presentation of low back pain and association with risk factors according to findings on magnetic resonance imaging.

We hypothesised that the relative importance of physical and psychological risk factors for mechanical low back pain (LBP) might differ importantly according to whether there is underlying spinal pathology, psychological risk factors being more common in patients without demonstrable pathology. If so, epidemiological studies of LBP could benefit from tighter case definitions. To test the hypothesis, we used data from an earlier case-control study on patients with mechanical LBP who had undergone magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the lumbosacral spine. MRI scans were classified for the presence of high-intensity zone (HIZ), disc degeneration, disc herniation, and nerve root displacement/compression. Information about symptoms and risk factors was elicited by postal questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to assess associations of MRI abnormalities with symptoms and risk factors, which were characterised by odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Among 354 patients (52% response), 306 (86.4%) had at least 1, and 63 (17.8%) had all 4 of the MRI abnormalities. Radiation of pain below the knee (280 patients) and weakness or numbness below the knee (257 patients) were both associated with nerve root deviation/compression (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4 to 4.5; and OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.1, respectively). However, we found no evidence for the hypothesised differences in risk factors between patients with and without demonstrable spinal pathology. This suggests that when researching the causes and primary prevention of mechanical LBP, there may be little value in distinguishing between cases according to the presence or absence of the more common forms of potentially underlying spinal pathology.

Bypassing the selection rule in choosing controls for a case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: It has been argued that in case-control studies, controls should be drawn from the base population that gives rise to the cases. In designing a study of occupational injury and risks arising from long-term illness and prescribed medication, we lacked data on subjects' occupation, without which employed cases (typically in manual occupations) would be compared with controls from the general population, including the unemployed and a higher proportion of white-collar professions. Collecting the missing data on occupation would be costly. We estimated the potential for bias if the selection rule were ignored. METHODS: We obtained published estimates of the frequencies of several exposures of interest (diabetes, mental health problems, asthma, coronary heart disease) in the general population, and of the relative risks of these diseases in unemployed versus employed individuals and in manual versus non-manual occupations. From these we computed the degree of over- or underestimation of exposure frequencies and exposure ORs if controls were selected from the general population. RESULTS: The potential bias in the OR was estimated as likely to fall between an underestimation of 14% and an overestimation of 36.7% (95th centiles). In fewer than 6% of simulations did the error exceed 30%, and in none did it reach 50%. CONCLUSIONS: For the purposes of this study, in which we were interested only in substantial increases in risk, the potential for selection bias was judged acceptable. The rule that controls should come from the same base population as cases can justifiably be broken, at least in some circumstances.

Twenty-five year mortality of a community cohort with schizophrenia.

BACKGROUND: People with schizophrenia have significantly raised mortality but we do not know how these mortality patterns in the UK have changed since the 1990s. AIMS: To measure the 25-year mortality of people with schizophrenia with particular focus on changes over time. METHOD: Prospective record linkage study of the mortality of a community cohort of 370 people with schizophrenia. RESULTS: The cohort had an all-cause standardised mortality ratio of 289 (95% CI 247-337). Most deaths were from the common causes seen in the general population. Unnatural deaths were concentrated in the first 5 years of follow-up. There was an indication that cardiovascular mortality may have increased relative to the general population (P = 0.053) over the course of the study. CONCLUSIONS: People with schizophrenia have a mortality risk that is two to three times that of the general population. Most of the extra deaths are from natural causes. The apparent increase in cardiovascular mortality relative to the general population should be of concern to anyone with an interest in mental health.