Negotiating discord in sustainability transformations.

Policy action for sustainability transformation faces inherent and ever-present sources of conflict, pushback, and resistance (i.e., discord). However, conceptual frameworks and policy prescriptions for sustainability transformations often reflect an undue image of accord. This involves simplified assumptions about consensus, steering, friction, discreteness, and additiveness of policy action, conferring an unrealistic view of the potential to deliberately realize transformation. Instead, negotiating discord through continuously finding partial political settlements among divided actors needs to become a key focus of policy action for sustainability transformations. Doing so can help to navigate deeply political settings through imperfect but workable steps that loosen deadlock, generate momentum for further policy action, and avoid complete derailment of transformation agendas when discord arises.

The latent net effectiveness of institutional complexes: a heuristic model.

International institutions strive to achieve their own objectives while operating within a complex network of interdependencies. These interdependencies create an extensive web of relationships that serve as potential pathways for broader institutional impacts. The actions taken by individual institutions, their mutual influences, and the pattern of connectivity collectively shape the overall performance of institutional complexes. Understanding the performance of these complexes is crucial, yet we currently lack a methodology to assess it. To address this gap, we have developed a conceptual framework that integrates three distinct areas of study on three different scales: institutional effectiveness, institutional interlinkages, and institutional networks. This framework enables us to consider what we call the latent net effectiveness, or collective problem-solving potential, of a group of interconnected institutions. To put this framework into practice, we have devised a heuristic model, drawing from the extensive literature on international environmental institutions. As an illustrative example, we have applied this model to a network of 378 multilateral environmental agreements with 810 known issue linkages. Our work underscores the relevance of considering the system-level properties of institutional complexes and emphasizes the need for timely network-based governance and policy interventions to enhance the overall effectiveness of institutional complexes. This article is part of the theme issue 'A complexity science approach to law and governance'.

Deep seabed mining and communities: A transdisciplinary approach to ecological risk assessment in the South Pacific.

Deep-sea mineral extraction is a fledgling industry whose guiding principles, legislation, protocols, and regulations are still evolving. Responsible management of the industry is difficult when it is not clearly understood what biological and environmental diversity or ecosystem services may be at risk. But the industry's infancy provides an opportunity to address this challenge by stakeholder-led development and implementation of a multidisciplinary risk assessment framework. This article aims to present the findings of a workshop held in New Zealand that hosted stakeholders from a broad range of interests and regions in the South Pacific associated with the deep-sea mineral activity. The outputs provide stakeholder-informed ecological risk assessment approaches for deep-sea mining activities, identifying tools and techniques to improve the relevance of risk assessment of deep seabed mining projects to communities in the South Pacific. Discussions highlighted the importance of trust or respect among stakeholders, valuing the "life force" of the ocean, the importance of scientific data, and the complications associated with defining acceptable change. This research highlighted the need for a holistic transdisciplinary approach that connects science, management, industry, and community, an approach most likely to provide a "social license" to operate. There is also a need to revise traditional risk assessment methods to make them more relevant to stakeholders. The development of ecotoxicological tools and approaches is an example of how existing practices could be improved to better support deep-sea mineral management. A case study is provided that highlights the current challenges within the legislative framework of New Zealand. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:664-673. © 2021 SETAC.

Viewing the global health system as a complex adaptive system - implications for research and practice.

The global health system (GHS) is ill-equipped to deal with the increasing number of transnational challenges. The GHS needs reform to enhance global resilience to future risks to health. In this article we argue that the starting point for any reform must be conceptualizing and studying the GHS as a complex adaptive system (CAS) with a large and escalating number of interconnected global health actors that learn and adapt their behaviours in response to each other and changes in their environment. The GHS can be viewed as a multi-scalar, nested health system comprising all national health systems together with the global health architecture, in which behaviours are influenced by cross-scale interactions. However, current methods cannot adequately capture the dynamism or complexity of the GHS or quantify the effects of challenges or potential reform options. We provide an overview of a selection of systems thinking and complexity science methods available to researchers and highlight the numerous policy insights their application could yield.   We also discuss the challenges for researchers of applying these methods and for policy makers of digesting and acting upon them. We encourage application of a CAS approach to GHS research and policy making to help bolster resilience to future risks that transcend national boundaries and system scales.

International organisations as 'custodians' of the sustainable development goals? Fragmentation and coordination in sustainability governance.

It is widely assumed that the fragmentation of global governance can affect coordination efforts among international institutions and organisations. Yet, the precise relationship between the fragmentation of global governance and the extent to which international organisations coordinate their activities remains underexplored. In this article, we offer new empirical evidence derived from the so-called custodianship arrangements in which numerous international organisations have been mandated to coordinate data collection and reporting for 231 indicators of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These complex custodianship arrangements provide a fertile testing ground for theories on the relationship between fragmentation and coordination because the institutional arrangements for each of the 17 SDGs have emerged bottom-up with varying degrees of fragmentation. Through a comparative approach covering 44 custodian agencies and focusing on the most and least fragmented custodianship arrangements, we make three key contributions. First, we offer a novel operationalisation of institutional fragmentation and coordination. Second, we present empirical evidence in support of the claim that fragmentation negatively affects coordination. Third, we provide nuances to this claim by identifying factors that affect the strength of this relationship. Based on our analysis, we suggest further steps that might facilitate coordination in global sustainability governance.

50 Years on, w(h)ither the Ramsar convention? A case of institutional drift.

Wetlands have declined in area and quality at an accelerating pace in the last 50 years. Yet, the last 50 years is when international attention has been focussed on wetlands through the Ramsar Convention. An analysis of how the convention has evolved over the past 50 years suggests it has been drifting away from its original mandate in a maladaptive manner, and this drift is a problem for achieving its original objectives. A review of the strategic plans of the convention revealed two key conditions for institutional drifting and the associated lack of success. The first condition lies in its unique situation as a non-UN convention, which reduces the convention's visibility and interactivity with other biodiversity-related conventions, agencies, or programmes. The second condition is an increasing number of conventions dealing with biodiversity issues, all forcing the Ramsar Convention to seek different roles in an increasingly competitive institutional landscape. A more effective future for the convention arguably lies in reasserting its original mandate, but with cognisance of the changed environmental pressures of the twenty-first century. While this would narrow its increasingly broad focus, such a reorientation will allow wetlands and waterfowl to start a track to recovery, backed by active and focused Contracting Parties in a renewed international convention on wetland conservation, management, and sustainable use.

Seeding the clouds to reach the sky: Will China's weather modification practices support the legitimization of climate engineering?

In this Perspective, we discuss whether in times of quickly proceeding global environmental change, radical global interventions like "climate engineering" may gain legitimacy in China and eventually be deployed or supported. We argue that one cornerstone for whether climate engineering, and solar radiation management in particular, could gain legitimacy in China, is its current weather modification programme. In China, weather modification is institutionalized and deployed on a large scale, and current narratives around the legitimacy to intervene into the local climate may provide a rationale for interventions such as solar radiation management. In the end, in the same way as Deng Xiaoping coined the phrase "stepping on stones to cross the river" in the era of China's Industrial Civilization, narrating China's "Ecological Civilization" may want to make use of "seeding the clouds to reach the sky". [See ESM for a summary of the article in Chinese.].