Digital pathology for reporting histopathology samples, including cancer screening samples - definitive evidence from a multisite study.

AIMS: To conduct a definitive multicentre comparison of digital pathology (DP) with light microscopy (LM) for reporting histopathology slides including breast and bowel cancer screening samples. METHODS: A total of 2024 cases (608 breast, 607 GI, 609 skin, 200 renal) were studied, including 207 breast and 250 bowel cancer screening samples. Cases were examined by four pathologists (16 study pathologists across the four speciality groups), using both LM and DP, with the order randomly assigned and 6 weeks between viewings. Reports were compared for clinical management concordance (CMC), meaning identical diagnoses plus differences which do not affect patient management. Percentage CMCs were computed using logistic regression models with crossed random-effects terms for case and pathologist. The obtained percentage CMCs were referenced to 98.3% calculated from previous studies. RESULTS: For all cases LM versus DP comparisons showed the CMC rates were 99.95% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 99.90-99.97] and 98.96 (95% CI = 98.42-99.32) for cancer screening samples. In speciality groups CMC for LM versus DP showed: breast 99.40% (99.06-99.62) overall and 96.27% (94.63-97.43) for cancer screening samples; [gastrointestinal (GI) = 99.96% (99.89-99.99)] overall and 99.93% (99.68-99.98) for bowel cancer screening samples; skin 99.99% (99.92-100.0); renal 99.99% (99.57-100.0). Analysis of clinically significant differences revealed discrepancies in areas where interobserver variability is known to be high, in reads performed with both modalities and without apparent trends to either. CONCLUSIONS: Comparing LM and DP CMC, overall rates exceed the reference 98.3%, providing compelling evidence that pathologists provide equivalent results for both routine and cancer screening samples irrespective of the modality used.

Rising arterial stiffness with accumulating comorbidities associates with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.

AIMS: Comorbidities play a significant role towards the pathophysiology of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), characterized by abnormal macrovascular function and altered ventricular-vascular coupling. However, our understanding of the role of comorbidities and arterial stiffness in HFpEF remains incomplete. We hypothesized that HFpEF is preceded by a cumulative rise in arterial stiffness as cardiovascular comorbidities accumulate, beyond that associated with ageing. METHODS AND RESULTS: Arterial stiffness was assessed using pulse wave velocity (PWV) in five groups: Group A, healthy volunteers (n = 21); Group B, patients with hypertension (n = 21); Group C, hypertension and diabetes mellitus (n = 20); Group D, HFpEF (n = 21); and Group E, HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) (n = 11). All patients were aged 70 and above. Mean PWV increased from Groups A to D (PWV 10.2, 12.2, 13.0, and 13.7 m/s, respectively) as vascular comorbidities accumulated independent of age, renal function, haemoglobin, obesity (body mass index), smoking status, and hypercholesterolaemia. HFpEF exhibited the highest PWV and HFrEF displayed near-normal levels (13.7 vs. 10 m/s, P = 0.003). PWV was inversely related to peak oxygen consumption (r = -0.304, P = 0.03) and positively correlated with left ventricular filling pressures (E/e') on echocardiography (r = -0.307, P = 0.014). CONCLUSIONS: This study adds further support to the concept of HFpEF as a disease of the vasculature, underlined by an increasing arterial stiffness that is driven by vascular ageing and accumulating vascular comorbidities, for example, hypertension and diabetes. Reflecting a pulsatile arterial afterload associated with diastolic dysfunction and exercise capacity, PWV may provide a clinically relevant tool to identify at-risk intermediate phenotypes (e.g. pre-HFpEF) before overt HFpEF occurs.

Adjusting for treatment selection in phase II/III clinical trials with time to event data.

Phase II/III clinical trials are efficient two-stage designs that test multiple experimental treatments. In stage 1, patients are allocated to the control and all experimental treatments, with the data collected from them used to select experimental treatments to continue to stage 2. Patients recruited in stage 2 are allocated to the selected treatments and the control. Combined data of stage 1 and stage 2 are used for a confirmatory phase III analysis. Appropriate analysis needs to adjust for selection bias of the stage 1 data. Point estimators exist for normally distributed outcome data. Extending these estimators to time to event data is not straightforward because treatment selection is based on correlated treatment effects and stage 1 patients who do not get events in stage 1 are followed-up in stage 2. We have derived an approximately uniformly minimum variance conditional unbiased estimator (UMVCUE) and compared its biases and mean squared errors to existing bias adjusted estimators. In simulations, one existing bias adjusted estimator has similar properties as the practically unbiased UMVCUE while the others can have noticeable biases but they are less variable than the UMVCUE. For confirmatory phase II/III clinical trials where unbiased estimators are desired, we recommend the UMVCUE or the existing estimator with which it has similar properties.

Effectiveness and Safety of Early Initiation of Poststernotomy Cardiac Rehabilitation Exercise Training: The SCAR Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Guidelines recommend that cardiac rehabilitation (CR) exercise training should not start until 6 weeks after sternotomy, although this is not evidence based. Limited data suggest that starting earlier is not detrimental, but clinical trials are needed. Objective: To compare the effectiveness and safety of CR exercise training started either 2 weeks (early CR) or 6 weeks (usual-care CR) after sternotomy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was an assessor-blind, noninferiority, parallel-group, randomized clinical trial that conducted participant recruitment from June 12, 2017, to March 17, 2020. Participants were consecutive cardiac surgery sternotomy patients recruited from 2 outpatient National Health Service rehabilitation centers: University Hospital, Coventry, UK, and Hospital of St Cross, Rugby, UK. Interventions: Participants were randomly assigned to 8 weeks of twice-weekly supervised CR exercise training starting either 2 weeks (early CR) or 6 weeks (usual-care CR) after sternotomy. Exercise training adhered to existing guidelines, including functional strength and cardiovascular components. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were assessed at baseline (inpatient after surgery), after CR (10 or 14 weeks after sternotomy), and 12 months after randomization. The primary outcome was the change in 6-minute walk test distance from baseline to after CR. Secondary outcomes included safety, functional fitness, and quality of life. Results: A total of 158 participants (mean [SD] age, 63 [11.5] years, 133 male patients [84.2%]) were randomly assigned to study groups; 118 patients (usual-care CR, 61 [51.7%]; early CR, 57 [48.3%]) were included in the primary analysis. Early CR was not inferior to usual-care CR (noninferiority margin, 35 m); the mean change in 6-minute walk distance from baseline to after CR was 28 m greater in the early CR group (95% CI, -11 to 66; P = .16). Mean differences for secondary outcomes were not statistically significant, indicating noninferiority of early CR. There were 46 vs 58 adverse events and 14 vs 18 serious adverse events in usual-care CR and early CR, respectively. There was no difference between the groups in the likelihood of participants having an adverse or serious adverse event. Conclusions and Relevance: Starting exercise training from 2 weeks after sternotomy was as effective as starting 6 weeks after sternotomy for improving 6-minute walk distance. With appropriate precautions, clinicians and CR professionals can consider starting exercise training as early as 2 weeks after sternotomy. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03223558.

CORRECTED ARTICLE: Effect of Dietary Potassium Restriction on Serum Potassium, Disease Progression, and Mortality in Chronic Kidney Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Low-potassium diets are recommended to reduce serum potassium (Sk) and prevent complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD), but evidence underpinning this recommendation has not been systematically reviewed and synthesized. We conducted a systematic review comparing change in Sk, CKD progression, and mortality between those on a low-potassium versus unrestricted potassium diet. METHODS: We searched Medline, AMED, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Clinicaltrials.org from inception to 3 April 2018. We included randomized and observational studies that compared these outcomes in adults with CKD who ate a restricted versus unrestricted amount of dietary potassium. We pooled mean change in Sk and adjusted hazard ratios of disease progression and mortality using random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: We identified 5,563 articles, of which seven studies (3,489 participants) met our inclusion criteria. We found very low-quality evidence that restricted (1,295 mg/d) versus unrestricted (1,570 mg/d) dietary potassium lowered Sk by -0.22 mEq/L (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.33, -0.10; I2 = 0%). Higher (4,558 mg/d) versus lower (1,725 mg/d) dietary potassium was not significantly associated with disease progression (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.14, 95% CI: [0.77, 1.70] I² = 57%). Higher (4,414 mg/d) compared with lower (1,670 mg/d) dietary potassium intake was not significantly associated with reduced mortality risk (HR: 0.80, 95% CI: [0.46, 1.41] I² = 78%). CONCLUSIONS: Very-low-quality evidence supports consensus that dietary potassium restriction reduces Sk in normokalemia but whether this is associated with risk of death in those with CKD is uncertain. High-quality randomized controlled trials are needed.

Diagnostic concordance and discordance in digital pathology: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Digital pathology (DP) has the potential to fundamentally change the way that histopathology is practised, by streamlining the workflow, increasing efficiency, improving diagnostic accuracy and facilitating the platform for implementation of artificial intelligence-based computer-assisted diagnostics. Although the barriers to wider adoption of DP have been multifactorial, limited evidence of reliability has been a significant contributor. A meta-analysis to demonstrate the combined accuracy and reliability of DP is still lacking in the literature. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to review the published literature on the diagnostic use of DP and to synthesise a statistically pooled evidence on safety and reliability of DP for routine diagnosis (primary and secondary) in the context of validation process. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was conducted through PubMed, Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Google Scholar for studies published between 2013 and August 2019. The search protocol identified all studies comparing DP with light microscopy (LM) reporting for diagnostic purposes, predominantly including H&E-stained slides. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool evidence from the studies. RESULTS: Twenty-five studies were deemed eligible to be included in the review which examined a total of 10 410 histology samples (average sample size 176). For overall concordance (clinical concordance), the agreement percentage was 98.3% (95% CI 97.4 to 98.9) across 24 studies. A total of 546 major discordances were reported across 25 studies. Over half (57%) of these were related to assessment of nuclear atypia, grading of dysplasia and malignancy. These were followed by challenging diagnoses (26%) and identification of small objects (16%). CONCLUSION: The results of this meta-analysis indicate equivalent performance of DP in comparison with LM for routine diagnosis. Furthermore, the results provide valuable information concerning the areas of diagnostic discrepancy which may warrant particular attention in the transition to DP.

Utilisation of pharmacy-based sexual and reproductive health services: a quantitative retrospective study.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the utilisation of pharmacy-based sexual and reproductive health services (SRHS) in order to optimise delivery and identify barriers to access. METHODS: The health provider Umbrella offers six SRHS from over 120 pharmacies in Birmingham (England). In this retrospective study, data collected between August 2015 and August 2018 were used to analyse uptake, user characteristics and attendance patterns according to day of the week. RESULTS: A total of 60 498 requests for a pharmacy service were included in the analysis. Emergency contraception (50.4%), condoms (33.1%) and STI self-sampling kits (9.6%) accounted for more than 90% of all requests. A lower uptake of services was observed for the contraceptive injection (0.6%), oral contraception (5.4%) and chlamydia treatment (1.0%). Services were most likely to be requested by those self-identifying as female (85.6%), and those aged 16-24 years (53.8%). Based on available ethnicity data (n=54 668), most requests for a service were made by White/White British individuals (43.4%) and Asian/Asian British people (23.1%). The largest number of services were delivered on Mondays (20.9%) and the lowest on Sundays (5.0%). A high proportion of requests for services on Saturdays (57.0%), Sundays (67.6%) and Mondays (54.4%) were made by females presenting for emergency contraception. CONCLUSION: The evaluation of healthcare utilisation is important to help refine and optimise the delivery of services. However, information relating to pharmacy-based SRHS is scarce and often limited to a single type of service provision. Overall, a wide range of pharmacy-based services were accessed by a diverse range of people, suggesting that pharmacies are a suitable provider of many SRHS. However, the routinely collected data analysed in the study had several limitations restricting the analysis. Sexual health providers should ensure they collect data which are as comprehensive as is possible in order to help understand the utilisation of services.

Impact of COVID-19 on clinical outcomes for patients with fractured hip: a multicentre observational cohort study.

AIMS: There are reports of a marked increase in perioperative mortality in patients admitted to hospital with a fractured hip during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK, USA, Spain, and Italy. Our study aims to describe the risk of mortality among patients with a fractured neck of femur in England during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We completed a multicentre cohort study across ten hospitals in England. Data were collected from 1 March 2020 to 6 April 2020, during which period the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic. Patients ≥ 60 years of age admitted with hip fracture and a minimum follow-up of 30 days were included for analysis. Primary outcome of interest was mortality at 30 days post-surgery or postadmission in nonoperative patients. Secondary outcomes included length of hospital stay and discharge destination. RESULTS: In total, 404 patients were included for final analysis with a COVID-19 diagnosis being made in 114 (28.2%) patients. Overall, 30-day mortality stood at 14.4% (n = 58). The COVID-19 cohort experienced a mortality rate of 32.5% (37/114) compared to 7.2% (21/290) in the non-COVID cohort (p < 0.001). In adjusted analysis, 30-day mortality was greatest in patients who were confirmed to have COVID-19 (odds ratio (OR) 5.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.95 to 10.80; p < 0.001) with an adjusted excess risk of 20%, male sex (OR 2.69, 95% CI 1.37 to 5.29; p = 0.004) and in patients with ≥ two comorbidities (OR 4.68, CI 1.5 to 14.61; p = 0.008). Length of stay was also extended in the COVID-19 cohort, on average spending 17.6 days as an inpatient versus 12.04 days in the non-COVID-19 group (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that patients who sustain a neck of femur fracture in combination with COVID-19 diagnosis have a significantly higher risk of mortality than would be normally expected.Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-11:697-705.

Point and interval estimation in two-stage adaptive designs with time to event data and biomarker-driven subpopulation selection.

In personalized medicine, it is often desired to determine if all patients or only a subset of them benefit from a treatment. We consider estimation in two-stage adaptive designs that in stage 1 recruit patients from the full population. In stage 2, patient recruitment is restricted to the part of the population, which, based on stage 1 data, benefits from the experimental treatment. Existing estimators, which adjust for using stage 1 data for selecting the part of the population from which stage 2 patients are recruited, as well as for the confirmatory analysis after stage 2, do not consider time to event patient outcomes. In this work, for time to event data, we have derived a new asymptotically unbiased estimator for the log hazard ratio and a new interval estimator with good coverage probabilities and probabilities that the upper bounds are below the true values. The estimators are appropriate for several selection rules that are based on a single or multiple biomarkers, which can be categorical or continuous.

The relationship between obstructive sleep apnoea and quality of life in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) and polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) are associated with significant comorbidities and commonly coexist. The primary aim of this study was to examine the relationship between OSA and quality of life (QoL) in women with PCOS. METHODS: We conducted an observational cross-sectional study. PCOS was diagnosed according to the Rotterdam criteria. Women with increased risk of OSA, based on the Berlin questionnaire or the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), had home-based polysomnography performed (ALICE PDx). Participants were divided into two groups: (a) PCOS only: women with normal ESS and low-risk Berlin questionnaire (no sleep studies performed), or women with normal sleep studies [oxygen desaturation index (ODI) < 5 events/hour]; and (b) PCOS+OSA: women with PCOS and OSA ODI ⩾ 5. QoL was assessed using the World Health Organization QoL questionnaire (WHOQOL-BREF) and the PCOS health-related quality of life questionnaire (PCOSQ). RESULTS: A total of 39 women were included; age (mean ± SD) was 32.2 ± 8.9 years, weight 92.5 ± 23.7 kg and body mass index (BMI) 34.1 ± 7.9 kg/m2; 38.5% (n = 15) had OSA. Compared with women with PCOS only, women with PCOS+OSA had higher BMI, HbA1c, C-reactive protein and low-density lipoprotein. ODI was independently associated with impaired QoL. Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) was independently associated with anxiety, depression and impaired QoL. CONCLUSIONS: OSA is highly prevalent and is associated with impaired QoL and worse metabolic profile in women with PCOS. Interventional studies are needed to examine the impact of OSA in women with PCOS. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT03065322.

Impact of sitagliptin on endometrial mesenchymal stem-like progenitor cells: A randomised, double-blind placebo-controlled feasibility trial.

BACKGROUND: Recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) is associated with the loss of endometrial mesenchymal stem-like progenitor cells (eMSC). DPP4 inhibitors may increase homing and engraftment of bone marrow-derived cells to sites of tissue injury. Here, we evaluated the effect of the DPP4 inhibitor sitagliptin on eMSC in women with RPL, determined the impact on endometrial decidualization, and assessed the feasibility of a full-scale clinical trial. METHODS: A double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled feasibility trial on women aged 18 to 42 years with a history of 3 or more miscarriages, regular menstrual cycles, and no contraindications to sitagliptin. Thirty-eight subjects were randomised to either 100 mg sitagliptin daily for 3 consecutive cycles or identical placebo capsules. Computer generated, permuted block randomisation was used to allocate treatment packs. Colony forming unit (CFU) assays were used to quantify eMSC in midluteal endometrial biopsies. The primary outcome measure was CFU counts. Secondary outcome measures were endometrial thickness, study acceptability, and first pregnancy outcome within 12 months following the study. Tissue samples were subjected to explorative investigations. FINDINGS: CFU counts following sitagliptin were higher compared to placebo only when adjusted for baseline CFU counts and age (RR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.32-1.75, P<0.01). The change in CFU count was 1.68 in the sitagliptin group and 1.08 in the placebo group. Trial recruitment, acceptability, and drug compliance were high. There were no serious adverse events. Explorative investigations showed that sitagliptin inhibits the expression of DIO2, a marker gene of senescent decidual cells. INTERPRETATION: Sitagliptin increases eMSCs and decreases decidual senescence. A large-scale clinical trial evaluating the impact of preconception sitagliptin treatment on pregnancy outcome in RPL is feasible and warranted. FUNDING: Tommy's Baby Charity. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: EU Clinical Trials Register no. 2016-001120-54.

Efficient Adaptive Designs for Clinical Trials of Interventions for COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented response in terms of clinical research activity. An important part of this research has been focused on randomized controlled clinical trials to evaluate potential therapies for COVID-19. The results from this research need to be obtained as rapidly as possible. This presents a number of challenges associated with considerable uncertainty over the natural history of the disease and the number and characteristics of patients affected, and the emergence of new potential therapies. These challenges make adaptive designs for clinical trials a particularly attractive option. Such designs allow a trial to be modified on the basis of interim analysis data or stopped as soon as sufficiently strong evidence has been observed to answer the research question, without compromising the trial's scientific validity or integrity. In this article, we describe some of the adaptive design approaches that are available and discuss particular issues and challenges associated with their use in the pandemic setting. Our discussion is illustrated by details of four ongoing COVID-19 trials that have used adaptive designs.

Effect of Dietary Potassium Restriction on Serum Potassium, Disease Progression, and Mortality in Chronic Kidney Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Low-potassium diets are recommended to reduce serum potassium (Sk) and prevent complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD), but evidence underpinning this recommendation has not been systematically reviewed and synthesized. We conducted a systematic review comparing change in Sk, CKD progression, and mortality between those on a low-potassium versus unrestricted potassium diet. METHODS: We searched Medline, AMED, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Clinicaltrials.org from inception to 3 April 2018. We included randomized and observational studies that compared these outcomes in adults with CKD who ate a restricted versus unrestricted amount of dietary potassium. We pooled mean change in Sk and adjusted hazard ratios of disease progression and mortality using random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: We identified 5,563 articles, of which seven studies (3,489 participants) met our inclusion criteria. We found very low-quality evidence that restricted (1,295 mg/d) versus unrestricted (1,570 mg/d) dietary potassium lowered Sk by -0.22 mEq/L (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.33, -0.10; I2 = 0%). Lower (1,725 mg/d) versus higher (4,558 mg/d) dietary potassium was not significantly associated with disease progression (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.14; 95% CI: 0.77, 1.70; I2 = 57%). Lower (1,670 mg/d), compared with higher (4,414 mg/d) dietary potassium intake was associated with a 40% reduction in mortality hazard (HR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.40, 0.89; I2 = 56%). CONCLUSIONS: Very-low-quality evidence supports consensus that dietary potassium restriction reduces Sk in normokalemia and is associated with a reduced risk of death in those with CKD. High-quality randomized controlled trials are needed.

Efficient adaptive designs for clinical trials of interventions for COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented response in terms of clinical research activity. An important part of this research has been focused on randomized controlled clinical trials to evaluate potential therapies for COVID-19. The results from this research need to be obtained as rapidly as possible. This presents a number of challenges associated with considerable uncertainty over the natural history of the disease and the number and characteristics of patients affected, and the emergence of new potential therapies. These challenges make adaptive designs for clinical trials a particularly attractive option. Such designs allow a trial to be modified on the basis of interim analysis data or stopped as soon as sufficiently strong evidence has been observed to answer the research question, without compromising the trial's scientific validity or integrity. In this paper we describe some of the adaptive design approaches that are available and discuss particular issues and challenges associated with their use in the pandemic setting. Our discussion is illustrated by details of four ongoing COVID-19 trials that have used adaptive design

Derivation and internal validation of the screening to enhance prehospital identification of sepsis (SEPSIS) score in adults on arrival at the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Prehospital recognition of sepsis may inform case management by ambulance clinicians, as well as inform transport decisions. The objective of this study was to develop a prehospital sepsis screening tool for use by ambulance clinicians. METHODS: We derived and validated a sepsis screening tool, utilising univariable logistic regression models to identify predictors for inclusion, and multivariable logistic regression to generate the SEPSIS score. We utilised a retrospective cohort of adult patients transported by ambulance (n = 38483) to hospital between 01 July 2013 and 30 June 2014. Records were linked using LinkPlus® software. Successful linkage was achieved in 33289 cases (86%). Eligible patients included adult, non-trauma, non-mental health, non-cardiac arrest cases. Of 33289 linked cases, 22945 cases were eligible. Eligible cases were divided into derivation (n = 16063, 70%) and validation (n = 6882, 30%) cohorts. The primary outcome measure was high risk of severe illness or death from sepsis, as defined by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Sepsis guideline. RESULTS: 'High risk of severe illness or death from sepsis' was present in 3.7% of derivation (n = 593) and validation (n = 254) cohorts. The SEPSIS score comprises the following variables: age, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturations, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, temperature and level of consciousness (p < 0.001 for all variables). Area under the curve was 0.87 (95%CI 0.85-0.88) for the derivation cohort, and 0.86 (95%CI 0.84-0.88) for the validation cohort. In an undifferentiated adult medical population, for a SEPSIS score ≥ 5, sensitivity was 0.37 (0.31-0.44), specificity was 0.96 (0.96-0.97), positive predictive value was 0.27 (0.23-0.32), negative predictive value was 0.97 (0.96-0.97), positive likelihood value was 13.5 (9.7-18.73) and the negative likelihood value was 0.83 (0.78-0.88). CONCLUSION: This is the first screening tool developed to identify NICE high risk of severe illness or death from sepsis. The SEPSIS score is significantly associated with high risk of severe illness or death from sepsis on arrival at the Emergency Department. It may assist ambulance clinicians to identify those patients with sepsis in need of antibiotic therapy. However, it requires external validation, in clinical practice by ambulance clinicians, in an independent population.

Point estimation following two-stage adaptive threshold enrichment clinical trials.

Recently, several study designs incorporating treatment effect assessment in biomarker-based subpopulations have been proposed. Most statistical methodologies for such designs focus on the control of type I error rate and power. In this paper, we have developed point estimators for clinical trials that use the two-stage adaptive enrichment threshold design. The design consists of two stages, where in stage 1, patients are recruited in the full population. Stage 1 outcome data are then used to perform interim analysis to decide whether the trial continues to stage 2 with the full population or a subpopulation. The subpopulation is defined based on one of the candidate threshold values of a numerical predictive biomarker. To estimate treatment effect in the selected subpopulation, we have derived unbiased estimators, shrinkage estimators, and estimators that estimate bias and subtract it from the naive estimate. We have recommended one of the unbiased estimators. However, since none of the estimators dominated in all simulation scenarios based on both bias and mean squared error, an alternative strategy would be to use a hybrid estimator where the estimator used depends on the subpopulation selected. This would require a simulation study of plausible scenarios before the trial.

Is exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation effective? A systematic review and meta-analysis to re-examine the evidence.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the contemporary effectiveness of exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (CR) in terms of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and hospital admissions. DATA SOURCES: Studies included in or meeting the entry criteria for the 2016 Cochrane review of exercise-based CR in patients with coronary artery disease. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of exercise-based CR versus a no-exercise control whose participants were recruited after the year 2000. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: Two separate reviewers independently screened the characteristics of studies. One reviewer quality appraised any new studies and assessed their risk of bias using the Cochrane Collaboration's recommended risk of bias tool. Data were reported as the risk difference (95% CI). RESULTS: We included 22 studies with 4834 participants (mean age 59.5 years, 78.4% male). We found no differences in outcomes between exercise-based CR and a no-exercise control at their longest follow-up period for: all-cause mortality (19 studies; n=4194; risk difference 0.00, 95% CI -0.02 to 0.01, P=0.38) or cardiovascular mortality (9 studies; n=1182; risk difference -0.01, 95% CI -0.02 to 0.01, P=0.25). We found a small reduction in hospital admissions of borderline statistical significance (11 studies; n=1768; risk difference -0.05, 95% CI -0.10 to -0.00, P=0.05). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF KEY FINDINGS: Our analysis indicates conclusively that the current approach to exercise-based CR has no effect on all-cause mortality or cardiovascular mortality, when compared with a no-exercise control. There may be a small reduction in hospital admissions following exercise-based CR that is unlikely to be clinically important. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42017073616.

Early initiation of post-sternotomy cardiac rehabilitation exercise training (SCAR): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: Current guidelines recommend abstinence from supervised cardiac rehabilitation (CR) exercise training for 6 weeks post-sternotomy. This practice is not based on empirical evidence, thus imposing potentially unnecessary activity restrictions. Delayed participation in CR exercise training promotes muscle atrophy, reduces cardiovascular fitness and prolongs recovery. Limited data suggest no detrimental effect of beginning CR exercise training as early as 2 weeks post-surgery, but randomised controlled trials are yet to confirm this. The purpose of this trial is to compare CR exercise training commenced early (2 weeks post-surgery) with current usual care (6 weeks post-surgery) with a view to informing future CR guidelines for patients recovering from sternotomy. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In this assessor-blind randomised controlled trial, 140 cardiac surgery patients, recovering from sternotomy, will be assigned to 8 weeks of twice-weekly supervised CR exercise training commencing at either 2 weeks (early CR) or 6 weeks (usual care CR) post-surgery. Usual care exercise training will adhere to current UK recommendations. Participants in the early CR group will undertake a highly individualised 2-3 week programme of functional mobility, strength and cardiovascular exercise before progressing to a usual care CR programme. Outcomes will be assessed at baseline (inpatient), pre-CR (2 or 6 weeks post-surgery), post-CR (10 or 14 weeks post-surgery) and 12 months. The primary outcome will be change in 6 min walk distance. Secondary outcomes will include measures of functional fitness, quality of life and cost-effectiveness. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Recruitment commenced on July 2017 and will complete by December 2019. Results will be disseminated via national governing bodies, scientific meetings and peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03223558; Pre-results.

Patient, health service factors and variation in mortality following resuscitated out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in acute coronary syndrome: Analysis of the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project.

AIMS: To determine patient and health service factors associated with variation in hospital mortality among resuscitated cases of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS: In this cohort study, we used the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project database to study outcomes in patients hospitalised with resuscitated OHCA due to ACS between 2003 and 2015 in the United Kingdom. We analysed variation in inter-hospital mortality and used hierarchical multivariable regression models to examine the association between patient and health service factors with hospital mortality. RESULTS: We included 17604 patients across 239 hospitals. Overall hospital mortality was 28.7%. In 94 hospitals that contributed at least 60 cases, mortality by hospital ranged from 10.7% to 66.3% (median 28.6%, IQR 23.2% to 39.1%)). Patient and health service factors explained 36.1% of this variation. After adjustment for covariates, factors associated with higher hospital mortality included increasing serum glucose, ST-Elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) diagnosis, and initial admission to a primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) capable hospital. Hospital OHCA volume was not associated with mortality. The key modifiable factor associated with lower mortality was early reperfusion therapy in STEMI patients. CONCLUSION: There was wide variation in inter-hospital mortality following resuscitated OHCA due to ACS that was only partially explained by patient and health service factors. Hospital OHCA volume and pPCI capability were not associated with lower mortality. Early reperfusion therapy was associated with lower mortality in STEMI patients.