Can Marginal Rates of Substitution Be Inferred From Happiness Data? Evidence from Residency Choices.

We survey 561 students from U.S. medical schools shortly after they submit choice rankings over residencies to the National Resident Matching Program. We elicit (a) these choice rankings, (b) anticipated subjective well-being (SWB) rankings, and (c) expected features of the residencies (such as prestige). We find substantial differences between choice and anticipated-SWB rankings in the implied tradeoffs between residency features. In our data, evaluative SWB measures (life satisfaction and Cantril's ladder) imply tradeoffs closer to choice than does affective happiness (even time-integrated), and as close as do multi-measure SWB indices. We discuss implications for using SWB data in applied work.

Beyond Happiness and Satisfaction: Toward Well-Being Indices Based on Stated Preference.

This paper proposes foundations and a methodology for survey-based tracking of well-being. First, we develop a theory in which utility depends on "fundamental aspects" of well-being, measurable with surveys. Second, drawing from psychologists, philosophers, and economists, we compile a comprehensive list of such aspects. Third, we demonstrate our proposed method for estimating the aspects' relative marginal utilities-a necessary input for constructing an individual-level well-being index-by asking ~4,600 U.S. survey respondents to state their preference between pairs of aspect bundles. We estimate high relative marginal utilities for aspects related to family, health, security, values, freedom, happiness, and life satisfaction.

The Effect of Uncertainty on Optimal Control Models in the Neighbourhood of a Steady State.

For both discrete and continuous time this paper derives the Taylor approximation to the effect of uncertainty (in the simple sense of risk, not Knightian uncertainty) on expected utility and optimal behaviour in stochastic control models when the uncertainty is small enough that one can focus on only the first term that involves uncertainty. There is a close and illuminating relationship between the discrete-time and continuous-time results. The analysis makes it possible to spell out a tight connection between the behaviour of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and the corresponding perfect foresight model. However, the quantitative analytics of the stochastic model local to a certainty model calls for a more thorough investigation of the nearby certainty model than is typically undertaken.

What Do You Think Would Make You Happier? What Do You Think You Would Choose?().

Would people choose what they think would maximize their subjective well-being (SWB)? We present survey respondents with hypothetical scenarios and elicit both choice and predicted SWB rankings of two alternatives. While choice and predicted SWB rankings usually coincide in our data, we find systematic reversals. We identify factors-such as predicted sense of purpose, control over one's life, family happiness, and social status-that help explain hypothetical choice controlling for predicted SWB. We explore how our findings vary by SWB measure and by scenario. Our results have implications regarding the use of SWB survey questions as a proxy for utility.

Imputing Risk Tolerance From Survey Responses.

Economic theory assigns a central role to risk preferences. This article develops a measure of relative risk tolerance using responses to hypothetical income gambles in the Health and Retirement Study. In contrast to most survey measures that produce an ordinal metric, this article shows how to construct a cardinal proxy for the risk tolerance of each survey respondent. The article also shows how to account for measurement error in estimating this proxy and how to obtain consistent regression estimates despite the measurement error. The risk tolerance proxy is shown to explain differences in asset allocation across households.