A niche-based theory of island biogeography.

The equilibrium theory of island biogeography (ETIB) is a widely applied dynamic theory proposed in the 1960s to explain why islands have coherent differences in species richness. The development of the ETIB was temporarily challenged in the 1970s by the alternative static theory of ecological impoverishment (TEI). The TEI suggests that the number of species on an island is determined by its number of habitats or niches but, with no clear evidence relating species richness to the number of niches however, the TEI has been almost dismissed as a theory in favour of the original ETIB. Here, we show that the number of climatic niches on islands is an important predictor of the species richness of plants, herpetofauna and land birds. We therefore propose a model called the niche-based theory of island biogeography (NTIB), based on the MacroEcological Theory on the Arrangement of Life (METAL), which successfully integrates the number of niches sensu Hutchinson into ETIB. To account for greater species turnover at the beginning of colonisation, we include higher initial extinction rates. When we test our NTIB for resident land birds in the Krakatau Islands, it reveals a good correspondence with observed species richness, immigration and extinction rates. Provided the environmental regime remains unchanged, we estimate that the current species richness at equilibrium is ~45 species (range between 38.39 and 61.51). Our NTIB provides better prediction because it counts for changes in species richness with latitude, which is not considered in any theory of island biogeography.

Addressing the dichotomy of fishing and climate in fishery management with the FishClim model.

The relative influence of fishing and Climate-Induced Environmental Change (CIEC) on long-term fluctuations in exploited fish stocks has been controversial1-3 because separating their contributions is difficult for two reasons. Firstly, there is in general, no estimation of CIEC for a pre-fishing period and secondly, the assessment of the effects of fishing on stocks has taken place at the same time as CIEC4. Here, we describe a new model we have called FishClim that we apply to North Sea cod from 1963 to 2019 to estimate how fishing and CIEC interact and how they both may affect stocks in the future (2020-2100) using CMIP6 scenarios5. The FishClim model shows that both fishing and CIEC are intertwined and can either act synergistically (e.g. the 2000-2007 collapse) or antagonistically (e.g. second phase of the gadoid outburst). Failure to monitor CIEC, so that fisheries management immediately adjusts fishing effort in response to environmentally-driven shifts in stock productivity, will therefore create a deleterious response lag that may cause the stock to collapse. We found that during 1963-2019, although the effect of fishing and CIEC drivers fluctuated annually, the pooled influence of fishing and CIEC on the North Sea cod stock was nearly equal at ~55 and ~45%, respectively. Consequently, the application of FishClim, which quantifies precisely the respective influence of fishing and climate, will help to develop better strategies for sustainable, long-term, fish stock management.

How do plankton species coexist in an apparently unstructured environment?

In a paper entitled The paradox of the plankton, Hutchinson asked 'how it is possible for a number of species to coexist in a relatively isotropic or unstructured environment all competing for the same sorts of materials' (Hutchinson 1961 Am. Nat. 95, 137-145 (doi:10.1086/282171)). Particularly relevant for phytoplankton, this paradox was based on two implicit, and perhaps naive, postulates, i.e. (i) that all plankton species have similar requirements and (ii) that the marine environment is relatively homogeneous in space and time. A number of hypotheses, based on purely theoretical or experimental studies, have been proposed to solve this conundrum, ranging from spatio-temporal environmental heterogeneity to biotic chaotic variability. Here, we characterize the ecological niche of 117 plankton species belonging to three different taxonomic groups and show that all species have a niche sufficiently distinct to ensure coexistence in a structured marine environment. We also provide evidence that pelagic habitats are, unsurprisingly, more diverse in space and time than Hutchinson imagined, the marine environment being neither unstructured nor stable in space and time. We, therefore, conclude that the niche theory, and its corollary the principle of competitive exclusion, apply as much for the plankton as for other forms of life, be they terrestrial or marine.

Citizens and scientists collect comparable oceanographic data: measurements of ocean transparency from the Secchi Disk study and science programmes.

Marine phytoplankton accounts for approximately 50% of all photosynthesis on Earth, underpins the marine food chain and plays a central role in the Earth's biogeochemical cycles and climate. In situ measurements of ocean transparency can be used to estimate phytoplankton biomass. The scale and challenging conditions of the ocean make it a difficult environment for in situ studies, however. Here, we show that citizen scientists (seafarers) using a simple white Secchi Disk can collect ocean transparency data to complement formal scientific efforts using similar equipment. Citizen scientist data can therefore help understand current climate-driven changes in phytoplankton biomass at a global scale.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations drive the basin-scale distribution of Atlantic bluefin tuna.

The Atlantic bluefin tuna (hereafter referred to as "bluefin tuna"), one of the world's most valuable and exploited fish species, has been declining in abundance throughout the Atlantic from the 1960s until the mid-2000s. Following the establishment of drastic management measures, the stock has started to recover recently and, as a result, stakeholders have raised catch quotas by 50% for the period 2017-2020. However, stock assessments still omit the natural, long-term variability in the species distribution. Here, we explore the century-scale fluctuations in bluefin tuna abundance and distribution to demonstrate a prevailing influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to provide new insights into both the collapse of the Nordic bluefin tuna fishery circa 1963 and the recent increase in bluefin tuna abundance in the Northeast Atlantic. Our results demonstrate how climatic variability can modulate the distribution of a large migrating species to generate rapid changes in its regional abundance, and we argue that climatic variability must not be overlooked in stock management plans for effective conservation.

Marine biodiversity and the chessboard of life.

Species richness is greater in places where the number of potential niches is high. Consequently, the niche may be fundamental for understanding the arrangement of life and especially, the establishment and maintenance of the well-known Latitudinal Biodiversity Gradient (LBG). However, not all potential niches may be occupied fully in a habitat, as measured by niche vacancy/saturation. Here, we theoretically reconstruct oceanic biodiversity and analyse modeled and observed data together to examine patterns in niche saturation (i.e. the ratio between observed and theoretical biodiversity of a given taxon) for several taxonomic groups. Our results led us to hypothesize that the arrangement of marine life is constrained by the distribution of the maximal number of species' niches available, which represents a fundamental mathematical limit to the number of species that can co-exist locally. We liken this arrangement to a type of chessboard where each square on the board is a geographic area, itself comprising a distinct number of sub-squares (species' niches). Each sub-square on the chessboard can accept a unique species of a given ecological guild, whose occurrence is determined by speciation/extinction. Because of the interaction between the thermal niche and changes in temperature, our study shows that the chessboard has more sub-squares at mid-latitudes and we suggest that many clades should exhibit a LBG because their probability of emergence should be higher in the tropics where more niches are available. Our work reveals that each taxonomic group has its own unique chessboard and that global niche saturation increases when organismal complexity decreases. As a result, the mathematical influence of the chessboard is likely to be more prominent for taxonomic groups with low (e.g. plankton) than great (e.g. mammals) biocomplexity. Our study therefore reveals the complex interplay between a fundamental mathematical constraint on biodiversity resulting from the interaction between the species' ecological niche and fluctuations in the environmental regime (here, temperature), which has a predictable component and a stochastic-like biological influence (diversification rates, origination and clade age) that may alter or blur the former.

How Do Marine Pelagic Species Respond to Climate Change? Theories and Observations.

In this review, we show how climate affects species, communities, and ecosystems, and why many responses from the species to the biome level originate from the interaction between the species' ecological niche and changes in the environmental regime in both space and time. We describe a theory that allows us to understand and predict how marine species react to climate-induced changes in ecological conditions, how communities form and are reconfigured, and so how biodiversity is arranged and may respond to climate change. Our study shows that the responses of species to climate change are therefore intelligible-that is, they have a strong deterministic component and can be predicted.

Climate change and the ash dieback crisis.

Beyond the direct influence of climate change on species distribution and phenology, indirect effects may also arise from perturbations in species interactions. Infectious diseases are strong biotic forces that can precipitate population declines and lead to biodiversity loss. It has been shown in forest ecosystems worldwide that at least 10% of trees are vulnerable to extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated. In Europe, the emerging ash dieback disease caused by the fungus Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, commonly called Chalara fraxinea, is causing a severe mortality of common ash trees (Fraxinus excelsior); this is raising concerns for the persistence of this widespread tree, which is both a key component of forest ecosystems and economically important for timber production. Here, we show how the pathogen and climate change may interact to affect the future spatial distribution of the common ash. Using two presence-only models, seven General Circulation Models and four emission scenarios, we show that climate change, by affecting the host and the pathogen separately, may uncouple their spatial distribution to create a mismatch in species interaction and so a lowering of disease transmission. Consequently, as climate change expands the ranges of both species polewards it may alleviate the ash dieback crisis in southern and occidental regions at the same time.

Marine biological shifts and climate.

Phenological, biogeographic and community shifts are among the reported responses of marine ecosystems and their species to climate change. However, despite both the profound consequences for ecosystem functioning and services, our understanding of the root causes underlying these biological changes remains rudimentary. Here, we show that a significant proportion of the responses of species and communities to climate change are deterministic at some emergent spatio-temporal scales, enabling testable predictions and more accurate projections of future changes. We propose a theory based on the concept of the ecological niche to connect phenological, biogeographic and long-term community shifts. The theory explains approximately 70% of the phenological and biogeographic shifts of a key zooplankton Calanus finmarchicus in the North Atlantic and approximately 56% of the long-term shifts in copepods observed in the North Sea during the period 1958-2009.

Trophic amplification of climate warming.

Ecosystems can alternate suddenly between contrasting persistent states due to internal processes or external drivers. It is important to understand the mechanisms by which these shifts occur, especially in exploited ecosystems. There have been several abrupt marine ecosystem shifts attributed either to fishing, recent climate change or a combination of these two drivers. We show that temperature has been an important driver of the trophodynamics of the North Sea, a heavily fished marine ecosystem, for nearly 50 years and that a recent pronounced change in temperature established a new ecosystem dynamic regime through a series of internal mechanisms. Using an end-to-end ecosystem approach that included primary producers, primary, secondary and tertiary consumers, and detritivores, we found that temperature modified the relationships among species through nonlinearities in the ecosystem involving ecological thresholds and trophic amplifications. Trophic amplification provides an alternative mechanism to positive feedback to drive an ecosystem towards a new dynamic regime, which in this case favours jellyfish in the plankton and decapods and detritivores in the benthos. Although overfishing is often held responsible for marine ecosystem degeneration, temperature can clearly bring about similar effects. Our results are relevant to ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM), seen as the way forward to manage exploited marine ecosystems.

Construction of an adult barnacle (Balanus amphitrite) cDNA library and selection of reference genes for quantitative RT-PCR studies.

BACKGROUND: Balanus amphitrite is a barnacle commonly used in biofouling research. Although many aspects of its biology have been elucidated, the lack of genetic information is impeding a molecular understanding of its life cycle. As part of a wider multidisciplinary approach to reveal the biogenic cues influencing barnacle settlement and metamorphosis, we have sequenced and annotated the first cDNA library for B. amphitrite. We also present a systematic validation of potential reference genes for normalization of quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) data obtained from different developmental stages of this animal. RESULTS: We generated a cDNA library containing expressed sequence tags (ESTs) from adult B. amphitrite. A total of 609 unique sequences (comprising 79 assembled clusters and 530 singlets) were derived from 905 reliable unidirectionally sequenced ESTs. Bioinformatics tools such as BLAST, HMMer and InterPro were employed to allow functional annotation of the ESTs. Based on these analyses, we selected 11 genes to study their ability to normalize qRT-PCR data. Total RNA extracted from 7 developmental stages was reverse transcribed and the expression stability of the selected genes was compared using geNorm, BestKeeper and NormFinder. These software programs produced highly comparable results, with the most stable gene being mt-cyb, while tuba, tubb and cp1 were clearly unsuitable for data normalization. CONCLUSION: The collection of B. amphitrite ESTs and their annotation has been made publically available representing an important resource for both basic and applied research on this species. We developed a qRT-PCR assay to determine the most reliable reference genes. Transcripts encoding cytochrome b and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 1 were expressed most stably, although other genes also performed well and could prove useful to normalize gene expression studies.

Fathers in hot water: rising sea temperatures and a Northeastern Atlantic pipefish baby boom.

We report unprecedented numbers of juvenile snake pipefish, Entelurus aequoreus, in continuous plankton records of the Northeastern Atlantic since 2002. Increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Northern Hemisphere, linked to global warming, are a likely cause. Analysis of a long-term time-series of SST data in the Northeastern Atlantic shows a rise in winter, spring and summer sea temperatures (January-September), when the eggs of E. aqueoreus, which are brooded by the male, are developing and the larvae are growing in plankton. From what is known of the reproductive biology of closely related species, we suggest that the increased abundance of larval and juvenile E. aequoreus in the plankton as far west as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge may reflect the impact of temperature on abundance, through its effects on the operational sex ratio and potential reproductive rate, the onset of the breeding season and juvenile survival in this sex role reversed fish.

Smelly feet are not always a bad thing: the relationship between cyprid footprint protein and the barnacle settlement pheromone.

A critical phase in the life cycle of sessile benthic marine invertebrates is locating a suitable substratum for settlement. For barnacles, it is the lecithotrophic cypris larva that makes this plankto-benthic transition. In exploring possible substrata for settlement, the cyprid leaves behind 'footprints' of a proteinaceous secretion that reportedly functions as a temporary adhesive, and also acts as a secondary cue in larval-larval interactions at settlement. Here, we show that two polyclonal antibodies raised against peptides localized at the N- and C-terminal regions of the adult settlement cue--the settlement-inducing protein complex (SIPC)--could both detect 'temporary adhesive' indicating that the SIPC is either a component of this secretion or that they are the same protein.

Locating the barnacle settlement pheromone: spatial and ontogenetic expression of the settlement-inducing protein complex of Balanus amphitrite.

Barnacles are prominent members of hard substratum benthic communities and their study has been important to advances in experimental ecology and contemporary ecological theory. Having recently characterized the cue to gregarious settlement of Balanus amphitrite, the settlement-inducing protein complex (SIPC), we use two polyclonal antibodies to examine the tissue distribution and ontogenetic expression of this glycoprotein. These antibodies were raised against two separate peptides located near the N- and C-termini of the SIPC and were used to detect the glycoprotein by western blotting and immunohistochemistry. By in situ hybridization we also show that the SIPC mRNA co-occurs with the expressed glycoprotein in the cuticles of both nauplius and cypris larval stages and the adult. In the larvae, the SIPC is expressed most strongly in the mouthparts and the hindgut of the stage 2 nauplius and in the thoracopods, antennules and bivalved carapace of the cyprid. In adult B. amphitrite, the expressed SIPC is present in protein extracts of the shell and in all organs that are lined by cuticular tissues. We suggest that the SIPC is produced by the epidermal cells that secrete the cuticle and discuss these observations with regard to earlier studies and the role of the SIPC as a contact pheromone.

An alpha2-macroglobulin-like protein is the cue to gregarious settlement of the barnacle Balanus amphitrite.

Many benthic marine invertebrates, like barnacles, have a planktonic larval stage whose primary purpose is dispersal. How these species colonize suitable substrata is fundamental to understanding their evolution, population biology, and wider community dynamics. Unlike larval dispersal, settlement occurs on a relatively small spatial scale and involves larval behavior in response to physical and chemical characteristics of the substratum. Biogenic chemical cues have been implicated in this process. Their identification, however, has proven challenging, no more so than for the chemical basis of barnacle gregariousness, which was first described >50 years ago. We now report that a biological cue to gregarious settlement, the settlement-inducing protein complex (SIPC), of the major fouling barnacle Balanus amphitrite is a previously undescribed glycoprotein. The SIPC shares a 30% sequence homology with the thioester-containing family of proteins that includes the alpha(2)-macroglobulins. The cDNA (5.2 kb) of the SIPC encodes a protein precursor comprising 1,547 aa with a 17-residue signal peptide region. A number of structural characteristics and the absence of a thioester bond in the SIPC suggest that this molecule is a previously undescribed protein that may have evolved by duplication from an ancestral alpha(2)-macroglobulin gene. Although the SIPC is regarded as an adult cue that is recognized by the cyprid at settlement, it is also expressed in the juvenile and in larvae, where it may function in larva-larva settlement interactions.

Genetic variation in a cline in a living intertidal snail arose in the Neogastropoda over 100 million years ago.

To understand how species adapt and evolve it is necessary to appreciate the relationship between genetic variation and the environment. Here, the fossil record and molecular data from different lineages of the marine Gastropoda are used to understand the evolution of genetic variations found in the nuclear gene for mitochondrial malate dehydrogenase (mMDH; EC 1.1.1.37) in the living intertidal Muricid snail, Nucella lapillus. Assuming a molecular clock, DNA sequences of mMDH indicate that two variants found in N. lapillus, mMDH(9) and mMDH(10), may have arisen as long as 144 MY (million years) ago and at least prior to the evolution of the Muricidae approximately 112-90 MY ago. The Muricidae contain by far the greatest majority of the Neogastropoda specialized for life in the intertidal habitat. In N. lapillus the mMDH(9) and mMDH(10) variants covary with variations in other biochemically defined loci, inherited phenotypic traits (shell shape and physiology) and karyotype frequencies to differentiate two distinct nuclear haplotypes that are associated with different temperature environments. The variations in shell shape that are associated with the haplotypes of N. lapillus represent adaptations to temperature stress and similar variations occur in other related intertidal molluscs whose lineages are much older than Nucella, which arose around 25 million years ago. It is suggested that the divergence of the mMDH variants found in N. lapillus may reflect an ancient genetic event, such as a chromosomal mutation, perhaps involving variation in other linked traits that together became important in the subsequent evolution of the marine Gastropoda.