A multi-institutional study designed by members of Tokyo Guidelines (TG) Core Meeting to elucidate the clinical characteristics and pathogenesis of acute cholangitis after bilioenteric anastomosis and biliary stent insertion with a focus on biliary obstruction: Role of transient hepatic attenuation difference (THAD) and pneumobilia in improving TG diagnostic performance.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to clarify the clinical characteristics of acute cholangitis (AC) after bilioenteric anastomosis and stent-related AC in a multi-institutional retrospective study, and validate the TG18 diagnostic performance for various type of cholangitis. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 1079 AC patients during 2020, at 16 Tokyo Guidelines 18 (TG 18) Core Meeting institutions. Of these, the post-biliary reconstruction associated AC (PBR-AC), stent-associated AC (S-AC) and common AC (C-AC) were 228, 307, and 544, respectively. The characteristics of each AC were compared, and the TG18 diagnostic performance of each was evaluated. RESULTS: The PBR-AC group showed significantly milder biliary stasis compared to the C-AC group. Using TG18 criteria, definitive diagnosis rate in the PBR-AC group was significantly lower than that in the C-AC group (59.6% vs. 79.6%, p < .001) because of significantly lower prevalence of TG 18 imaging findings and milder bile stasis. In the S-AC group, the bile stasis was also milder, but definitive-diagnostic rate was significantly higher (95.1%) compared to the C-AC group. The incidence of transient hepatic attenuation difference (THAD) and pneumobilia were more frequent in PBR-AC than that in C-AC. The definitive-diagnostic rate of PBR-AC (59.6%-78.1%) and total cohort (79.6%-85.3%) were significantly improved when newly adding these items to TG18 diagnostic imaging findings. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic rate of PBR-AC using TG18 is low, but adding THAD and pneumobilia to TG imaging criteria may improve TG diagnostic performance.

JPN clinical practice guidelines 2021 with easy-to-understand explanations for the management of acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: In preparing the Japanese (JPN) guidelines for the management of acute pancreatitis 2021, the committee focused the issues raised by the results of nationwide epidemiological survey in 2016 in Japan. METHOD: In addition to a systematic search using the previous JPN guidelines, papers published from January 2014 to September 2019 were searched for the contents to be covered by the guidelines based on the concept of GRADE system. RESULTS: Thirty-six clinical questions (CQ) were prepared in 15 subject areas. Based on the facts that patients diagnosed with severe disease by both Japanese prognostic factor score and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) grade had a high fatality rate and that little prognosis improvement after 2 weeks of disease onset was not obtained, we emphasized the importance of Pancreatitis Bundles, which were shown to be effective in improving prognosis, and the CQ sections for local pancreatic complications had been expanded to ensure adoption of a step-up approach. Furthermore, on the facts that enteral nutrition for severe acute pancreatitis was not started early within 48 h of admission and that unnecessary prophylactic antibiotics was used in almost all cases, we emphasized early enteral nutrition in small amounts even if gastric feeding is used and no prophylactic antibiotics are administered in mild pancreatitis. CONCLUSION: All the members of the committee have put a lot of effort into preparing the extensively revised guidelines in the hope that more people will have a common understanding and that better medical care will be spread.

Modified Socratic Method (planned and executed by Takada) for medical education: Grade II Acute Cholecystitis of Tokyo Guidelines 2018 as an example case.

BACKGROUND: Socratic method, which is an educational method to promote critical thinking through a dialogue, has never been practiced in a large number of people at the academic societies. METHODS: Modified Socratic method was performed for the first time as an educational seminar using an example case of moderate acute cholecystitis based on the evidence described in Tokyo Guidelines 2018. We adopted a method that Takada had been modifying for many years: the instructor first knows the degree of recognition of the audience, then the instructor gives a lecture in an easy-to-understand manner and receives questions from the audience, followed by repeated questions and answers toward a common recognition. RESULTS: Using slides, video, and an answer pad, 281 participants including the audience, instructors and moderators came together to repeatedly ask and answer questions in the five sessions related to the case scenario. The recognition rate of the topic of Critical View of Safety increased significantly before vs after this method (53.0% vs 90.3%). The seminar had been successfully performed by receiving a lot of praise from the participants. CONCLUSION: This educational method is considered to be adopted by many academic societies in the future as an effective educational method.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma: A study in patients with chronic hepatitis C after sustained virologic response.

Background: The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has strongly influenced many aspects of the medical care, including cancer surveillance. Aims: We investigated how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), focusing on patients with hepatitis C virus infection who were receiving surveillance for HCC after sustained virologic response (SVR) in Japan. Methods: Patients who achieved SVR between 1995 and 2017 and continued receiving surveillance were compared by month in terms of the rate at which they kept their scheduled visits for HCC surveillance from July 2019 to May 2020. Results: The percentage of kept scheduled visits was above 97% before February 2020. By contrast, it declined sharply after March 2020 when COVID-19 became pandemic; the percentages were 75.5% in March, 63.0% in April and 49.1% in May 2020 (July 2019-February 2020 vs March-May 2020, P < 0.0001). Similar declines were observed in patients with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis and in those with a history of HCC. Whereas most patients who cancelled a scheduled visit before February 2020 did not reschedule it, the majority of patients with cancellations after March 2020 did want to reschedule. Conclusions: The percentages of scheduled visits that were kept declined rapidly after COVID-19 became pandemic in Japan, although the spread of COVID-19 is relatively mild and the legal restriction of people's behaviour and movement is absent. Instituting measures to follow-up with cancelled patients and resume surveillance will be necessary in the future.

Usefulness of urinary trypsinogen-2 and trypsinogen activation peptide in acute pancreatitis: A multicenter study in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Rapid urinary trypsinogen-2 dipstick test and levels of urinary trypsinogen-2 and trypsinogen activation peptide (TAP) concentration have been reported as prognostic markers for the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis. AIM: To reconfirm the validity of all these markers in the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis by undertaking a multi-center study in Japan. METHODS: Patients with acute abdominal pain were recruited from 17 medical institutions in Japan from April 2009 to December 2012. Urinary and serum samples were collected twice, at enrollment and on the following day for measuring target markers. The diagnosis and severity assessment of acute pancreatitis were assessed based on prognostic factors and computed tomography (CT) Grade of the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare criteria. RESULTS: A total of 94 patients were enrolled during the study period. The trypsinogen-2 dipstick test was positive in 57 of 78 patients with acute pancreatitis (sensitivity, 73.1%) and in 6 of 16 patients with abdominal pain but without any evidence of acute pancreatitis (specificity, 62.5%). The area under the curve (AUC) score of urinary trypsinogen-2 according to prognostic factors was 0.704, which was highest in all parameter. The AUC scores of urinary trypsinogen-2 and TAP according to CT Grade were 0.701 and 0.692, respectively, which shows higher than other pancreatic enzymes. The levels of urinary trypsinogen-2 and TAP were significantly higher in patients with extended extra-pancreatic inflammation as evaluated by CT Grade. CONCLUSION: We reconfirmed urinary trypsinogen-2 dipstick test is useful as a marker for the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis. Urinary trypsinogen-2 and TAP may be considered as useful markers to determine extra-pancreatic inflammation in acute pancreatitis.

Tokyo Guidelines 2018: initial management of acute biliary infection and flowchart for acute cholangitis.

The initial management of patients with suspected acute biliary infection starts with the measurement of vital signs to assess whether or not the situation is urgent. If the case is judged to be urgent, initial medical treatment should be started immediately including respiratory/circulatory management if required, without waiting for a definitive diagnosis. The patient's medical history is then taken; an abdominal examination is performed; blood tests, urinalysis, and diagnostic imaging are carried out; and a diagnosis is made using the diagnostic criteria for cholangitis/cholecystitis. Once the diagnosis has been confirmed, initial medical treatment should be started immediately, severity should be assessed according to the severity grading criteria for acute cholangitis/cholecystitis, and the patient's general status should be evaluated. For mild acute cholangitis, in most cases initial treatment including antibiotics is sufficient, and most patients do not require biliary drainage. However, biliary drainage should be considered if a patient does not respond to initial treatment. For moderate acute cholangitis, early endoscopic or percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage is indicated. If the underlying etiology requires treatment, this should be provided after the patient's general condition has improved; endoscopic sphincterotomy and subsequent choledocholithotomy may be performed together with biliary drainage. For severe acute cholangitis, appropriate respiratory/circulatory management is required. Biliary drainage should be performed as soon as possible after the patient's general condition has been improved by initial treatment and respiratory/circulatory management. Free full articles and mobile app of TG18 are available at: http://www.jshbps.jp/modules/en/index.php?content_id=47. Related clinical questions and references are also included.

Tokyo Guidelines 2018: flowchart for the management of acute cholecystitis.

We propose a new flowchart for the treatment of acute cholecystitis (AC) in the Tokyo Guidelines 2018 (TG18). Grade III AC was not indicated for straightforward laparoscopic cholecystectomy (Lap-C). Following analysis of subsequent clinical investigations and drawing on Big Data in particular, TG18 proposes that some Grade III AC can be treated by Lap-C when performed at advanced centers with specialized surgeons experienced in this procedure and for patients that satisfy certain strict criteria. For Grade I, TG18 recommends early Lap-C if the patients meet the criteria of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) ≤5 and American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification (ASA-PS) ≤2. For Grade II AC, if patients meet the criteria of CCI ≤5 and ASA-PS ≤2, TG18 recommends early Lap-C performed by experienced surgeons; and if not, after medical treatment and/or gallbladder drainage, Lap-C would be indicated. TG18 proposes that Lap-C is indicated in Grade III patients with strict criteria. These are that the patients have favorable organ system failure, and negative predictive factors, who meet the criteria of CCI ≤3 and ASA-PS ≤2 and who are being treated at an advanced center (where experienced surgeons practice). If the patient is not considered suitable for early surgery, TG18 recommends early/urgent biliary drainage followed by delayed Lap-C once the patient's overall condition has improved. Free full articles and mobile app of TG18 are available at: http://www.jshbps.jp/modules/en/index.php?content_id=47. Related clinical questions and references are also included.

Tokyo Guidelines 2018: diagnostic criteria and severity grading of acute cholangitis (with videos).

Although the diagnostic and severity grading criteria on the 2013 Tokyo Guidelines (TG13) are used worldwide as the primary standard for management of acute cholangitis (AC), they need to be validated through implementation and assessment in actual clinical practice. Here, we conduct a systematic review of the literature to validate the TG13 diagnostic and severity grading criteria for AC and propose TG18 criteria. While there is little evidence evaluating the TG13 criteria, they were validated through a large-scale case series study in Japan and Taiwan. Analyzing big data from this study confirmed that the diagnostic rate of AC based on the TG13 diagnostic criteria was higher than that based on the TG07 criteria, and that 30-day mortality in patients with a higher severity based on the TG13 severity grading criteria was significantly higher. Furthermore, a comparison of patients treated with early or urgent biliary drainage versus patients not treated this way showed no difference in 30-day mortality among patients with Grade I or Grade III AC, but significantly lower 30-day mortality in patients with Grade II AC who were treated with early or urgent biliary drainage. This suggests that the TG13 severity grading criteria can be used to identify Grade II patients whose prognoses may be improved through biliary drainage. The TG13 severity grading criteria may therefore be useful as an indicator for biliary drainage as well as a predictive factor when assessing the patient's prognosis. The TG13 diagnostic and severity grading criteria for AC can provide results quickly, are minimally invasive for the patients, and are inexpensive. We recommend that the TG13 criteria be adopted in the TG18 guidelines and used as standard practice in the clinical setting. Free full articles and mobile app of TG18 are available at: http://www.jshbps.jp/modules/en/index.php?content_id=47. Related clinical questions and references are also included.

Tokyo Guidelines 2018: antimicrobial therapy for acute cholangitis and cholecystitis.

Antimicrobial therapy is a mainstay of the management for patients with acute cholangitis and/or cholecystitis. The Tokyo Guidelines 2018 (TG18) provides recommendations for the appropriate use of antimicrobials for community-acquired and healthcare-associated infections. The listed agents are for empirical therapy provided before the infecting isolates are identified. Antimicrobial agents are listed by class-definitions and TG18 severity grade I, II, and III subcategorized by clinical settings. In the era of emerging and increasing antimicrobial resistance, monitoring and updating local antibiograms is underscored. Prudent antimicrobial usage and early de-escalation or termination of antimicrobial therapy are now important parts of decision-making. What is new in TG18 is that the duration of antimicrobial therapy for both acute cholangitis and cholecystitis is systematically reviewed. Prophylactic antimicrobial usage for elective endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography is no longer recommended and the section was deleted in TG18. Free full articles and mobile app of TG18 are available at: http://www.jshbps.jp/modules/en/index.php?content_id=47. Related clinical questions and references are also included.

Tokyo Guidelines 2018: management bundles for acute cholangitis and cholecystitis.

Management bundles that define items or procedures strongly recommended in clinical practice have been used in many guidelines in recent years. Application of these bundles facilitates the adaptation of guidelines and helps improve the prognosis of target diseases. In Tokyo Guidelines 2013 (TG13), we proposed management bundles for acute cholangitis and cholecystitis. Here, in Tokyo Guidelines 2018 (TG18), we redefine the management bundles for acute cholangitis and cholecystitis. Critical parts of the bundles in TG18 include the diagnostic process, severity assessment, transfer of patients if necessary, and therapeutic approach at each time point. Observance of these items and procedures should improve the prognosis of acute cholangitis and cholecystitis. Studies are now needed to evaluate the dissemination of these TG18 bundles and their effectiveness. Free full articles and mobile app of TG18 are available at: http://www.jshbps.jp/modules/en/index.php?content_id=47. Related clinical questions and references are also included.

Indications and techniques of biliary drainage for acute cholangitis in updated Tokyo Guidelines 2018.

The Tokyo Guidelines 2013 (TG13) include new topics in the biliary drainage section. From these topics, we describe the indications and new techniques of biliary drainage for acute cholangitis with videos. Recently, many novel studies and case series have been published across the world, thus TG13 need to be updated regarding the indications and selection of biliary drainage based on published data. Herein, we describe the latest updated TG13 on biliary drainage in acute cholangitis with meta-analysis. The present study showed that endoscopic transpapillary biliary drainage regardless of the use of nasobiliary drainage or biliary stenting, should be selected as the first-line therapy for acute cholangitis. In acute cholangitis, endoscopic sphincterotomy (EST) is not routinely required for biliary drainage alone because of the concern of post-EST bleeding. In case of concomitant bile duct stones, stone removal following EST at a single session may be considered in patients with mild or moderate acute cholangitis except in patients under anticoagulant therapy or with coagulopathy. We recommend the removal of difficult stones at two sessions after drainage in patients with a large stone or multiple stones. In patients with potential coagulopathy, endoscopic papillary dilation can be a better technique than EST for stone removal. Presently, balloon enteroscopy-assisted endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (BE-ERCP) is used as the first-line therapy for biliary drainage in patients with surgically altered anatomy where BE-ERCP expertise is present. However, the technical success rate is not always high. Thus, several studies have revealed that endoscopic ultrasonography-guided biliary drainage (EUS-BD) can be one of the second-line therapies in failed BE-ERCP as an alternative to percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage where EUS-BD expertise is present.

Updated comprehensive epidemiology, microbiology, and outcomes among patients with acute cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: The international practice guidelines for patients with acute cholangitis and cholecystitis were released in 2007 (TG07) and revised in 2013 (TG13). This study investigated updated epidemiology and outcomes among patients with acute cholangitis on a larger scale for the first time. METHODS: This is an international multi-center retrospective observational study in Japan and Taiwan. All consecutive patients older than 18 years of age and given a clinical diagnosis of acute cholangitis by clinicians between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2012 were enrolled. Those who met the diagnostic criteria of acute cholangitis by TG13 were statistically analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 7,294 patients were enrolled and 6,433 patients met the TG13 diagnostic criteria. The severity distribution was Grade I (37.5%), Grade II (36.2%), and Grade III (26.2%). The 30-day all-cause mortality was 2.4%, 4.7%, and 8.4% in Grade I, II, III severity, respectively (P < 0.001). The incidence of liver abscess and endocarditis as complications of acute cholangitis was 2.0% and 0.26%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first large scale study to investigate patients with acute cholangitis. This study provides the basis to define the best practices to manage patients with acute cholangitis in future studies.

Percutaneous and endoscopic gallbladder drainage for acute cholecystitis: international multicenter comparative study using propensity score-matched analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tokyo Guideline 2013 (TG13) proposed three drainage techniques for the treatment of acute cholecystitis. We evaluated the clinical efficacy and adverse events between percutaneous transhepatic intervention (PTGBI) including percutaneous transhepatic gallbladder drainage (PTGBD) and percutaneous transhepatic gallbladder aspiration (PTGBA) and endoscopic transpapillary gallbladder drainage (EGBD). METHODS: A cohort study was performed using propensity score matching to reduce treatment selection bias. This involved the analysis of collected data for 1,764 patients who underwent PTGBI and EGBD. RESULTS: Propensity score matching extracted 330 pairs of patients. The difference in the clinical success rate within 3 days between PTGBI and EGBD were 62.5% and 69.8%, respectively (P = 0.085). The differences in the suboptimal clinical success rates within 7 days between PTGBI and EGBD were 87.6% and 89.2% (P = 0.579). The differences in the complication rate between PTGBI and EGBD were 4.8% and 8.2% (P = 0.083). The differences in the complication rate among PTGBD, PTGBA and EGBD were 5.6%, 1.6% and 8.2% (P = 0.11). Median required days of PTGBD (3.0 days) was significantly longer than those of PTGBA and EGBD (1.5 and 2.0 days, respectively) (P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: The current study showed the PTGBI showed similar clinical efficacy compared with EGBD without significant discrepancy of complication rate for the treatment of acute cholecystitis.

Optimal treatment strategy for acute cholecystitis based on predictive factors: Japan-Taiwan multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although early laparoscopic cholecystectomy is widely performed for acute cholecystitis, the optimal timing of a cholecystectomy in clinically ill patients remains controversial. This study aims to determine the best practice for the patients presenting with acute cholecystitis focused on disease severity and comorbidities. METHODS: An international multicentric retrospective observational study was conducted over a 2-year period. Patients were divided into four groups: Group A: primary cholecystectomy; Group B: cholecystectomy after gallbladder drainage; Group C: gallbladder drainage alone; and Group D: medical treatment alone. RESULTS: The subjects of analyses were 5,329 patients. There were statistically significant differences in mortality rates between patients with Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) scores below and above 6 (P < 0.001). The shortest operative time was observed in Group A patients who underwent surgery 0-3 days after admission (P < 0.01). Multiple regression analysis revealed CCI and low body mass index <20 as predictive factors of 30-day mortality in Grade I+II patients. Also, jaundice, neurological dysfunction, and respiratory dysfunction were predictive factors of 30-day mortality in Grade III patients. In Grade III patients without predictive factors, there were no difference in mortality between Group A and Group B (0% vs. 0%), whereas Group A patients had higher mortality rates than that of Group B patients (9.3% vs. 0.0%) in cases with at least one predictive factor. CONCLUSION: Even patients with Grade III severity, primary cholecystectomy can be performed safely if they have no predictive factors of mortality. Gallbladder drainage may have a therapeutic role in subgroups with higher CCI or higher disease severity.

Clinical application and verification of the TG13 diagnostic and severity grading criteria for acute cholangitis: an international multicenter observational study.

BACKGROUND: The Tokyo Guidelines 2007 (TG07) first presented the diagnostic and severity grading criteria for acute cholangitis. Subsequently updated in 2013, the Tokyo Guidelines (TG13) have been widely adopted throughout the world as global standard guidelines. We set out to verify the efficacy of these TG13 criteria in an international multicenter study. METHODS: We reviewed 6,063 patients who were clinically diagnosed with acute cholangitis in Japan and Taiwan over a 2-year period. The TG13 diagnostic and severity grading criteria were retrospectively applied, and 30-day mortality was investigated. RESULTS: A diagnosis of acute cholangitis was made in 5,454 (90.0%) patients on the basis of the TG13 criteria, and in 4,815 (79.4%) patients on the basis of the TG07 criteria. The 30-day mortality rates of patients with Grade III, Grade II, and Grade I were 5.1%, 2.6%, and 1.2%, respectively, and increased significantly along with disease severity. The mortality rate in the 1,272 Grade II cases where urgent or early biliary drainage was performed was 2.0% (n = 25), which was significantly lower than that of 3.7% (n = 28) in the other 748 cases. CONCLUSION: By using the TG13 diagnostic and severity grading criteria, more patients with possible acute cholangitis can be diagnosed, and patients whose prognosis can potentially be improved by early biliary drainage can be identified. The TG13 criteria are appropriate and useful for clinical practice.

Validation of TG13 severity grading in acute cholecystitis: Japan-Taiwan collaborative study for acute cholecystitis.

BACKGROUND: The collaborative multicenter retrospective study of acute cholecystitis (AC) was performed in Japan and Taiwan. The aim for this study was evaluation of the clinical value of TG13 severity grading for AC. METHOD: The study was designed as an international multicenter retrospective study of AC from 2011 to 2013. Based on the data, we investigated the TG13 severity grading by analyzing the correlations between grade and prognosis, surgical procedures, histopathology, and organ dysfunction and prognosis. RESULTS: An investigation revealed that 30-day overall mortality rate was 1.1% for Grade I, 0.8% for Grade II, 5.4% for Grade III. The mortality rate for Grade III was significantly higher than lower grades (P < 0.001). The greater the number of organ dysfunction, the higher the mortality rate (P < 0.001). However, the mortality rate varied depending on the number of organ dysfunction (3.1-25%). With respect to the surgical procedures, laparoscopic cholecystectomy was performed for Grade I patients (P < 0.001), and the higher the grade, the more likely open surgery would be selected (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: TG13 severity grading criteria for AC are providing great benefits in actual clinical settings. From this study, the position of each severity grade was obviously confirmed.

Descriptive review of acute cholecystitis: Japan-Taiwan collaborative epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: Since the publication of the Tokyo Guidelines (TG13) for the management of acute cholecystitis (AC), multidirectional studies have been published. However, epidemiological research about AC with big data was not projected. The aim of this study was to reveal the actual clinical conditions of AC. METHOD: The study was designed as an international multicenter retrospective study of AC in Japan and Taiwan from 2011 to 2013. The factors investigated comprised data related to demographic, history, physical examinations, laboratory and imaging findings. Based on these data, we investigated the various values of AC, and real situation with respect to severity and treatment. RESULTS: A total of 5,459 patients with AC were reviewed. Thirty-day mortality rate was 1.1%. Based on the diagnostic criteria, 4,088 patients had a definite diagnosis and 291 had a suspected diagnosis. According to the severity grading, 939 patients were classified as Grade III, 2,308 as Grade II, and 2,130 as Grade I. Cholecystectomy was performed in total of 4,266 patients and 2,765 patients had laparoscopic cholecystectomy. The main etiologies were gallbladder stones in 4,623 cases. CONCLUSION: This epidemiological study with large population will undoubtedly contribute to establish the best practice for managing AC worldwide.

Viral eradication reduces all-cause mortality, including non-liver-related disease, in patients with progressive hepatitis C virus-related fibrosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Eradication of hepatitis C virus (HCV) with interferon (IFN)-based therapy has been reported to reduce all-cause mortality in patients with chronic HCV infection. However, the impact of HCV eradication on non-liver-related mortality and causes of death has not been sufficiently investigated in patients with progressive HCV-related fibrosis. METHODS: We enrolled 784 chronic HCV patients with progressive liver fibrosis (aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index >1). Cause of death, incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma, and all-cause mortality including non-liver-related mortality were analyzed. RESULTS: Of these 784 patients, 170 achieved sustained virological response (SVR) (eradication of HCV) with IFN-based therapy (IFN-SVR), and 614 did not receive IFN-based therapy (non-IFN patients, chronic HCV infection). The median follow-up duration was 10.3 years. Two hundred seventy-three patients died during follow-up (liver-related death, n = 171; non-liver-related death, n = 102). The mortality rate from non-liver-related disease was 63.6% (7/11) in IFN-SVR patients and 36.3% (95/262) in non-IFN patients, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the eradication of HCV associated with not only hepatocellular carcinoma incidence (hazard ratio (HR), 0.162; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.092-0.284), and all-cause mortality (HR, 0.094; 95% CI, 0.047-0.187), but non-liver-related mortality (HR, 0.286; 95% CI, 0.127-0.644) as well. CONCLUSIONS: Eradication of HCV reduced both liver-related and non-liver-related mortality in patients with progressive HCV-related fibrosis.

Post-treatment levels of α-fetoprotein predict long-term hepatocellular carcinoma development after sustained virological response in patients with hepatitis C.

AIM: The rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development is reportedly lower in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) who have achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) than in patients who were unresponsive to therapy. However, the development of HCC is sometimes observed in patients with SVR. Therefore, we clarified the predictive power of clinical factors for HCC incidence in patients with SVR using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis that takes time dependence into account. METHODS: A total of 571 patients with HCV who achieved SVR with interferon-based therapy were enrolled. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models and time-dependent ROC curves were used to analyze clinical factors associated with the development of HCC. RESULTS: Twenty-four patients developed HCC during the follow-up period (median duration, 9.0 years). The 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year cumulative incidence rates for HCC were 1.7%, 4.8%, 5.8%, and 6.6%, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models showed that older age (hazard ratio [HR], 3.648), male sex (HR, 7.560), lower platelet count at 24 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR24) (HR, 3.939), and higher α-fetoprotein (AFP) at SVR24 (HR, 3.630) were independently associated with HCC development. In addition, time-dependent ROC analysis showed that, compared to platelet count at SVR24, AFP at SVR24 had higher predictive power for HCC incidence approximately 7 years after SVR. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated AFP at SVR24 is a risk factor for HCC in patients with HCV, even those who achieve SVR. α-Fetoprotein is a good predictor of HCC development.

HBcrAg predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development: An analysis using time-dependent receiver operating characteristics.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several hepatitis B virus (HBV) markers have been identified as factors associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We clarified the predictive power of HBV markers for the development of HCC using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis with a consideration of time dependence. METHODS: A total of 1031 CHB patients who were not treated with nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy were enrolled. Univariate, multivariate, and time-dependent ROC curves for HBV markers associated with the development of HCC were analyzed. RESULTS: Seventy-eight patients developed HCC during the follow-up period (median duration 10.7years). Different levels or statuses of several HBV markers (HBV genotype, HBV DNA, HBV core-related antigen (HBcrAg), hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg), and basal core promoter (BCP)), but not hepatitis B surface antigen, were significantly associated with the incidence of HCC by univariate analysis using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards models using the covariates of HBV genotype status, HBV DNA levels, HBcrAg levels, HBeAg status, and BCP status indicated that HBcrAg >2.9logU/ml (hazard ratio (HR), 5.05; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.40-10.63) and BCP mutation (HR, 28.85; 95% CI, 4.00-208.20) were independently associated with the incidence of HCC. Additionally, time-dependent ROC analysis showed that HBcrAg was superior to HBV DNA in terms of predictive power for HCC development throughout the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: Elevation of HBcrAg levels in CHB patients is associated with the development of HCC. HBcrAg is an excellent predictor of HCC development. LAY SUMMARY: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is an excellent predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in chronic hepatitis B patients without nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy. HBcrAg was superior to HBV DNA in terms of predictive power for HCC development by time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis.