Predicting perceived level of disturbance of visitors due to crowding in protected areas.

Managing the disturbance of visitors due to crowding is an important management task in protected areas with high use levels. To achieve this, managers need to know how the use level affects the perceived disturbance due to crowding. Here we present a method to predict the level of disturbance as a function of use level measured by number of visitors. In contrast to the visual approach where subjects are asked to evaluate acceptability of use levels from manipulated images of scenery, our approach uses data gathered from actual experiences: actual (measured) use levels and concurrent on-site data on levels of disturbance experienced by visitors. Using the example of Nature Park Telascica, we show how these data can be acquired with limited resources (a smart-phone and short, time-stamped questionnaires), and demonstrate the subsequent analysis and model fitting. The resulting model estimates the probability that a visitor experiencing a given use level will report certain level of disturbance. We suggest a way of using the probability density functions to define an inherent limit of acceptable disturbance (LAD) due to crowding; the LAD can also be set to a desired value by management. Regardless of the definition, LAD can be used to determine the maximum acceptable use level as dictated by crowding considerations. The method gives predictions consistent with previous literature and can be used even when data are collected at low use levels.

Nutrient quotas and carbon content variability of Prorocentrum minimum (Pavillard) Schiller, 1933.

Frequency, severity, and geographic range of harmful blooms caused by a dinoflagellate Prorocentrum minimum have been increasing significantly over the past few decades. The ability to adapt nutrient quotas and carbon content to a wide range of environmental conditions is one of the key factors for the proliferation of P. minimum. Understanding the limits of stoichiometric variability in terms of nutrient quotas and carbon content would help explain the observed trends and assist in P. minimum growth model creation. This manuscript aggregates information from 15 studies to investigate variability in nutrient quotas and carbon content for a broad range of P. minimum isolates and clonal lines. Nitrogen quota, phosphorus quota, and carbon content in the studies varied between 11-107.5pgNcell-1, 1.45-17.58pgPcell-1, and 70-656.36pgCcell-1, respectively. Regression analysis was used to estimate average nitrogen and phosphorus quotas as functions of carbon, and to show that carbon content variability explains 55% of nitrogen and 23% of phosphorus quota variability. Confidence intervals for data (CID) found during the analysis were used to define maximal and minimal nutrient quotas as functions of carbon content. The ratios of the upper and lower CID ranges can, therefore, be used to estimate nutrient storage capacity as a function of carbon content. The new results and comparison with other species show that, at least for P. minimum, carbon-based quotas are more suitable for modelling than cell-based quotas. Finally, results indicate that environmental nutrient availability affects quotas more than light does: while quota variability due to light remains within 80% CID, nutrient variability covers the 95% CID.