A coupled human-natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change.

Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan's situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human-natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan's freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan's water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.

Disentangling multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors in a lotic ecosystem using a longitudinal approach.

Meeting ecological and water quality standards in lotic ecosystems is often failed due to multiple stressors. However, disentangling stressor effects and identifying relevant stressor-effect-relationships in complex environmental settings remain major challenges. By combining state-of-the-art methods from ecotoxicology and aquatic ecosystem analysis, we aimed here to disentangle the effects of multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors along a longitudinal land use gradient in a third-order river in Germany. We distinguished and evaluated four dominant stressor categories along this gradient: (1) Hydromorphological alterations: Flow diversity and substrate diversity correlated with the EU-Water Framework Directive based indicators for the quality element macroinvertebrates, which deteriorated at the transition from near-natural reference sites to urban sites. (2) Elevated nutrient levels and eutrophication: Low to moderate nutrient concentrations together with complete canopy cover at the reference sites correlated with low densities of benthic algae (biofilms). We found no more systematic relation of algal density with nutrient concentrations at the downstream sites, suggesting that limiting concentrations are exceeded already at moderate nutrient concentrations and reduced shading by riparian vegetation. (3) Elevated organic matter levels: Wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and stormwater drainage systems were the primary sources of bioavailable dissolved organic carbon. Consequently, planktonic bacterial production and especially extracellular enzyme activity increased downstream of those effluents showing local peaks. (4) Micropollutants and toxicity-related stress: WWTPs were the predominant source of toxic stress, resulting in a rapid increase of the toxicity for invertebrates and algae with only one order of magnitude below the acute toxic levels. This toxicity correlates negatively with the contribution of invertebrate species being sensitive towards pesticides (SPEARpesticides index), probably contributing to the loss of biodiversity recorded in response to WWTP effluents. Our longitudinal approach highlights the potential of coordinated community efforts in supplementing established monitoring methods to tackle the complex phenomenon of multiple stress.

Towards the review of the European Union Water Framework Directive: Recommendations for more efficient assessment and management of chemical contamination in European surface water resources.

Water is a vital resource for natural ecosystems and human life, and assuring a high quality of water and protecting it from chemical contamination is a major societal goal in the European Union. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its daughter directives are the major body of legislation for the protection and sustainable use of European freshwater resources. The practical implementation of the WFD with regard to chemical pollution has faced some challenges. In support of the upcoming WFD review in 2019 the research project SOLUTIONS and the European monitoring network NORMAN has analyzed these challenges, evaluated the state-of-the-art of the science and suggested possible solutions. We give 10 recommendations to improve monitoring and to strengthen comprehensive prioritization, to foster consistent assessment and to support solution-oriented management of surface waters. The integration of effect-based tools, the application of passive sampling for bioaccumulative chemicals and an integrated strategy for prioritization of contaminants, accounting for knowledge gaps, are seen as important approaches to advance monitoring. Including all relevant chemical contaminants in more holistic "chemical status" assessment, using effect-based trigger values to address priority mixtures of chemicals, to better consider historical burdens accumulated in sediments and to use models to fill data gaps are recommended for a consistent assessment of contamination. Solution-oriented management should apply a tiered approach in investigative monitoring to identify toxicity drivers, strengthen consistent legislative frameworks and apply solutions-oriented approaches that explore risk reduction scenarios before and along with risk assessment.