Standardization and quality control of Doppler and fetal biometric ultrasound measurements in low-income setting.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the quality of fetal biometry and pulsed-wave Doppler ultrasound measurements in a prospective cohort study in Uganda. METHODS: This was an ancillary study of the Ending Preventable Stillbirths by Improving Diagnosis of Babies at Risk (EPID) project, in which women enroled in early pregnancy underwent Doppler and fetal biometric assessment at 32-40 weeks of gestation. Sonographers undertook 6 weeks of training followed by onsite refresher training and audit exercises. A total of 125 images for each of the umbilical artery (UA), fetal middle cerebral artery (MCA), left and right uterine arteries (UtA), head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL) were selected randomly from the EPID study database and evaluated independently by two experts in a blinded fashion using objective scoring criteria. Inter-rater agreement was assessed using modified Fleiss' kappa for nominal variables and systematic errors were explored using quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plots. RESULTS: For Doppler measurements, 96.8% of the UA images, 84.8% of the MCA images and 93.6% of the right UtA images were classified as of acceptable quality by both reviewers. For fetal biometry, 96.0% of the HC images, 96.0% of the AC images and 88.0% of the FL images were considered acceptable by both reviewers. The kappa values for inter-rater reliability of quality assessment were 0.94 (95% CI, 0.87-0.99) for the UA, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.58-0.82) for the MCA, 0.87 (95% CI, 0.78-0.95) for the right UtA, 0.94 (95% CI, 0.87-0.98) for the HC, 0.93 (95% CI, 0.87-0.98) for the AC and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.66-0.88) for the FL measurements. The Q-Q plots indicated no influence of systematic bias in the measurements. CONCLUSIONS: Training local healthcare providers to perform Doppler ultrasound, and implementing quality control systems and audits using objective scoring tools in clinical and research settings, is feasible in low- and middle-income countries. Although we did not assess the impact of in-service retraining offered to practitioners deviating from prescribed standards, such interventions should enhance the quality of ultrasound measurements and should be investigated in future studies. © 2022 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Prevalence of Cardioprotective Medication Use in Coronary Heart Disease Patients in South America: Systematic review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the most common cause of death globally, and clinical guidelines recommend cardioprotective medications for patients with established CHD. Suboptimal use of these medications has been reported, but information from South America is scarce. Methods: We conducted a systematic review on prevalence of secondary prevention medication in South America. We pooled prevalence estimates, analysed time-trends and guideline compliance, and identified factors associated with medication use with meta-regression models. Results: 73 publications were included. Medication prevalence varied by class: beta-blockers 73.4%(95%CI 66.8%-79.1%), ACEI/ARBs 55.8%(95%CI 49.7%-61.8), antiplatelets 84.6%(95%CI 79.6%-88.5%), aspirin 85.1%(95%CI 79.7%-89.3%) and statins 78.9%(95%CI 71.2%-84.9%). The use of beta-blockers, ACEI/ARBs and statins increased since 1993. Ten publications reported low medication use and nine reported adequate use. Medication use was lower in community, public and rehabilitation settings compared to tertiary centres. Conclusion: Cardioprotective medication use has increased, but could be further improved particularly in community settings.

Non-communicable disease co-morbidity and associated factors in tuberculosis patients: A cross-sectional study in Gabon.

BACKGROUND: There are only limited data from resource-limited settings available on the prevalence of non-communicable diseases and associated risk factors of tuberculosis patients. This study investigated non-communicable disease co-morbidity in tuberculosis patients from Moyen Ogooué Province, Gabon. METHODS: All patients aged 18 years or older consulting for tuberculosis (TB) symptoms in Gabon's Moyen Ogooué province and neighbouring provinces from November 2018 to November 2020 were screened for diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and risk factors thereof (obesity, dyslipidaemia, smoking and alcohol consumption). Logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with TB-diabetes and TB-hypertension co-morbidities. FINDINGS: Of 583 patients included, 227 (39%) were diagnosed with tuberculosis. In tuberculosis-confirmed patients, the prevalences of hypertension and diabetes were 16·3% and 12·8%, respectively. The prevalence of diabetes was twice as high in tuberculosis patients compared to non-tuberculosis patients. Factors independently associated with hypertension-tuberculosis co-morbidity were age >55 years (aOR=8·5, 95% CI 2·43, 32·6), age 45-54 years (aOR=4.9, 95%CI 1.3-19.8), and moderate alcohol consumption (aOR=2·4; 95% CI 1·02- 5·9), respectively. For diabetes-tuberculosis co-morbidity, age >55 years was positively (aOR=9·13; 95% CI 2·4-39·15), and moderate alcohol consumption inversely associated (aOR=0·26, 95% CI 0·08- 0·73). One-hundred-and-four (46%) of the tuberculosis patients had at least either dyslipidaemia, hypertension, diabetes, or obesity with a majority of newly-diagnosed hypertension and diabetes. INTERPRETATION: Integration of screening of non-communicable diseases and their risk factors during TB assessment for early diagnosis, treatment initiation and chronic care management for better health outcomes should be implemented in all tuberculosis healthcare facilities. FUNDING: This study was supported by WHO AFRO/TDR/EDCTP (2019/893,805) and Deutsches Zentrum für Infektiologie (DZIF/ TTU 02.812).

Cognitive and Motor Development in 3- to 6-Year-Old Children Born to Mothers with Hyperglycaemia First Detected in Pregnancy in an Urban African Population.

OBJECTIVES: Hyperglycaemia first detected in pregnancy (HFDP), on the rise in urban sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), may negatively impact foetal neurodevelopment, with potential long-term cognitive consequences for the child. Data on this association from SSA is lacking, and we aimed to investigate the association in 3- to 6-year-old children in Soweto, South Africa. METHODS: In this comparative study, we compared cognitive skills measured with the Herbst Early Childhood Development Criteria test in 95 children born to mothers with HFDP and 99 participants unexposed to maternal HFDP. Fine and gross motor skills were secondary outcomes. Ordinal regression analysis with known confounders was performed for children born at-term. RESULTS: Of children exposed to HFDP born at-term, 24.3% scored 'high' and 25.7% scored 'low' in the cognitive subsection of the test, as opposed to 37.7% and 12.9% in the HFDP-unexposed group, respectively. In ordinal regression, exposed participants had a significantly lower odds of scoring in a higher cognitive category when adjusting for maternal confounders and socio-economic status (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.15-0.74, p = 0.007). No difference was found in gross motor development between the two groups; differences in fine motor development were attenuated after adjustment for maternal pregnancy factors and household socioeconomic status (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.28-1.37, p = 0.239). CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE: Exposure to HFDP was negatively associated with cognitive development at preschool age. Optimising maternal (preconception) health and early childhood cognitive stimulation could help more children reach their developmental potential.

Rural and urban migration to Europe in relation to cardiovascular disease risk: does it matter where you migrate from?

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether the environmental context (i.e. rural vs urban) in which individuals in low- and middle-income countries have resided most of their lives is associated with estimated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk after migration to a high-income country. STUDY DESIGN: Data from the Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants (RODAM) study were used including 1699 Ghanaian participants aged 40-79 years who had migrated to Europe from Ghana (1549 of urban origin, 150 of rural origin). METHODS: Ten-year CVD risk was estimated using the Pooled Cohort Equation, with estimates ≥7.5% defining elevated CVD risk. Comparisons between urban and rural origin migrant groups were made using proportions and adjusted odds ratios (ORs). RESULTS: The proportion of migrants with an elevated CVD-risk score was substantially higher among rural migrants than among urban migrants (45% vs. 37%, OR = 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.03-2.02), which persisted after adjustment for education level, site of residence in Europe (London, Amsterdam or Berlin), length of stay in Europe, physical activity, energy intake and alcohol consumption (OR = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.05-2.67). CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that migrants who spent most of their lives in a rural setting before migration to Europe may have a higher CVD risk than those of urban origins. Further work is needed to confirm these findings in other migrant populations and to unravel the mechanisms driving the differential CVD risk between urban and rural migrants.

Ideal Cardiovascular Health Index and Its Determinants in a Rural South African Population.

Background: The ideal cardiovascular health index (CVHI) is a measure to summarize cardiovascular (CV) health, and includes smoking, body-mass index, physical activity, blood pressure, glucose, total cholesterol, and diet. Objective: This study aimed to assess CV health using the CVHI and determinants on CV health in a rural African population, and correlate carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), a surrogate marker for atherosclerosis, with CVHI. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis was performed on baseline data of the Ndlovu Cohort Study, located in rural South Africa. CVHI score (CVHIs) was calculated by the sum of favourable CVHI factors (range 0 to 7). Logistic regression was performed to examine the association of age, sex, HIV-status, education level, employment status, and income with good CV health (5-7 favourable health factors). Mean CIMT was displayed by poor, intermediate and good CV health. Results: The study included 1927 participants with a mean age of 38.7 years (SD ± 12.8). Of the factors contributing to the CVHI, glucose and total cholesterol scored best; diet least good. Average CVHIs for the population was 4.4 (SD ± 1.2) and 53% of the population had a good CV health. Determinants associated with good CV health were younger age, higher educational attainment, and HIV positivity. CVHIs showed good agreement with CIMT. Conclusion: CVHIs showed that more than half of the participants had a good CV health. Agreement between CVHIs and CIMT indicates potential use of CVHIs as a surrogate marker for CV risk. The study highlights the importance of education for health promotion; good CV health in HIV-positive participants may in part be attributed to more frequent health care contact and provision of chronic disease care. Highlights: Good cardiovascular health (CVH) was observed in 53% of the study population.In global comparison, rural African study participants showed a good CVH score.HIV positivity was associated with a good CVH score.CVH score showed good agreement with carotid intima-media thickness.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes following the introduction of oral hypoglycaemic agents for gestational diabetes mellitus were comparable to insulin monotherapy in two historical cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), a disorder of glucose intolerance first encountered during pregnancy, has far-reaching implications for both mother and child. Insulin therapy remains the 'gold standard' of care, with oral hypoglycaemic agents (OHAs) increasingly being viewed as potential alternatives. OBJECTIVES: To compare maternal and neonatal outcomes in two cohorts of women with GDM exposed to either insulin monotherapy or OHAs. METHODS: A retrospective medical record review at Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital in South Africa was conducted for women with GDM diagnosed using the 100 g oral glucose tolerance test and/or random capillary blood glucose >11.1 mmol/L in 2010 - 2014. The findings were compared with a previous audit at the same clinic for the period 1992 - 2002. Variables of interest included maternal demographics, maternal comorbidities, glycaemic indices, treatments used during pregnancy, and obstetric and neonatal outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 192 women with GDM were identified for 2010 - 2014, and there were 348 women in the previous audit (1992 - 2002). Baseline characteristics and outcomes of women in the two cohorts were similar apart from earlier presentation (mean (standard deviation) gestational age (GA) 27 (7.5) weeks v. 28.3 (6.4) weeks; p=0.04), lower GA at delivery (36.3 (3.6) weeks v. 37 (1.6) weeks); p=0.008) and lower macrosomia rates (12.5% v. 4.9%; p=0.011) in the later cohort. When comparing the individual OHAs against insulin in the later cohort, both agents were comparable to insulin in terms of maternal and neonatal outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This study contributes to the paucity of data on the safety of OHAs in GDM pregnancy in terms of maternal and neonatal outcomes. OHAs were shown to be an effective alternative to insulin for women with GDM in whom lifestyle measures fail, particularly in a resource-poor setting.

Obesity and cardiovascular disease risk among Africans residing in Europe and Africa: the RODAM study.

BACKGROUND: The association between anthropometric variables and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among Africans is unclear. We examined the discriminative ability of anthropometric variables and estimate cutoffs for predicting CVD risk among Africans. METHODS: The Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants (RODAM) study was a multisite cross-sectional study of Africans in Ghana and Europe. We calculated AHA/ACC Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) scores for 3661 participants to ascertain CVD risk, and compared a body shape index (ABSI), body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), Relative Fat Mass (RFM), and Waist to Height Ratio (WHtR). Logistic regression and receiver operating curve analyses were performed to derive cutoffs for identifying high predicted CVD risk (PCE score ≥7.5%). RESULTS: Among men, WC (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR): 2.25, 95% CI; 1:50-3:37) was strongly associated with CVD risk. Among women, WC (aOR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1:33-2:14) also displayed the strongest association with CVD risk in the BMI-adjusted model but WHR displayed the strongest fit. All variables were superior discriminators of high CVD risk in men (c-statistic range: 0.887-0.891) than women (c-statistic range: 0.677-0.707). The optimal WC cutoff for identifying participants at high CVD risk was 89 cm among men and identified the most cases (64%). Among women, the recommended WC cutoff of 94 cm or WHR cutoff of 0.90 identified the most cases (92%). CONCLUSIONS: Anthropometric variables were stronger discriminators of high CVD risk in African men than women. Greater WC was associated with high CVD risk in men while WHR and WC were associated with high CVD risk in women.

Cardiovascular disease risk and its determinants in people living with HIV across different settings in South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Socio-economic factors and lifestyle are known to differ across geographies and populations, which may result in distinct risk profiles for cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study assessed carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), a proxy for CVD, and its determinants in two groups of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in two different settings in South Africa. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis was conducted comparing data from the Ndlovu Cohort Study in the Limpopo Province (group 1) and from three clinical trials in Johannesburg (group 2). The association between demographics, conventional CVD risk factors, HIV-related factors and CIMT in groups 1 and 2 was analysed with two separate multivariable linear regression models. RESULTS: Group 1 consisted of 826 participants (mean age 42.2 years) and mean (± standard deviation) CIMT was 0.626 ± 0.128 mm. In this group, sex, age, body mass index (BMI), cholesterol, glucose and antiretroviral therapy (ART) duration (ß = 0.011 mm per 5 years; P = 0.02) were associated with higher CIMT. There were positive interactions between age and ART duration and age and cholesterol. Group 2 consisted of 382 participants (mean age 39.5 years) and mean (± standard deviation) CIMT was 0.560 ± 0.092 mm. In this group, only sex, education level, BMI and cholesterol were associated with higher CIMT, albeit with weaker associations than in group 1. CONCLUSIONS: Conventional CVD risk factors were the main drivers of CIMT. The impact of some of these risk factors appeared to increase with age. Differences in sample size, age and viral suppression might explain why an effect of ART was observed in group 1 but not in group 2.

Prevention of Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy: a Novel Application of the Polypill Concept.

Nearly all of the annual 287,000 global maternal deaths are preventable. Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are among the major causes. A novel fixed-dose combination pill or polypill to prevent cardiovascular disease is a promising strategy for prevention of HDP. The aim of this study was to identify eligible candidates for a polypill for the prevention of HDP. A comprehensive review of systematic reviews on drug and dietary interventions to prevent HDP was conducted. Interventions were evaluated based on efficacy, dose, route of administration, and side effects. Fourteen interventions were assessed. Low-dose aspirin and calcium were identified as candidates for a polypill, with risk reduction estimations for pregnancy-induced hypertension and preeclampsia ranging between 10 and 62 %, depending on patient population characteristics including a priori risk, and gestation age at start of intervention. Their effect may be augmented through the addition of vitamin D, vitamin B12, and folic acid. The effect and optimal composition needs to be evaluated in future trials. Given the persistent burden of maternal and perinatal mortality associated with HDP, prevention of these disorders is key-especially in low-resource settings. The polypill approach with a combination of aspirin, calcium, vitamin D, vitamin B12, and folic acid is a promising strategy to improve maternal and perinatal health outcomes.

Perinatal outcomes after hypertensive disorders in pregnancy in a low resource setting.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate perinatal outcomes of pregnancies complicated by hypertensive disorders in pregnancy in an urban sub-Saharan African setting. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of 1010 women of less than 17 weeks of gestation was conducted at two antenatal clinics in Accra, Ghana, between July 2012 and March 2014. Information about hypertensive disorders was available for analysis on 789 pregnancies. The main outcomes were pre-term birth, birthweight, Apgar scores, small for gestational age and mortality. Relative risk (RR, 95% confidence interval (CI)) for the association between hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and perinatal outcomes was assessed using logistic regression adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: A total of 88.7% of women remained normotensive, 7.5% developed pregnancy-induced hypertension, 2.0% had chronic hypertension, and 1.7% developed (pre-)eclampsia. No adverse effects were observed in women with pregnancy-induced hypertension. Women with chronic hypertension were more likely to have a lower gestational age at delivery (38.0 ± 2.3 weeks vs. 39.0 ± 1.9 weeks, P = 0.04) and higher risk of pre-term delivery (aRR 4.63, 95% CI 1.35-15.91). Women with pre-eclampsia had emergency Caesarean section significantly more often (88.9% vs. 50%, P = 0.04), with a higher risk for low birthweight infants (aRR 7.95, 95% CI 1.41-44.80) and a higher risk of neonatal death (aRR 18.41, 95% CI 1.20-283.22). CONCLUSION: Comparable to high-income countries, in Accra hypertensive disorders during pregnancy were associated with increased risk of adverse perinatal outcomes necessitating maternal and newborn care.

Dried blood spot measurement of pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and free ß-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (ß-hCG) from a low-resource setting.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of the article is to compare pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and free ß-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (ß-hCG) concentrations in dried blood spots (DBSs) with serum of samples obtained from a public hospital in a low-resource setting and to evaluate their stability. METHODS: Serum and DBS samples were obtained by venipuncture and finger prick from 50 pregnant participants in a cohort study in a public hospital in Accra, Ghana. PAPP-A and ß-hCG concentrations from serum and DBS were measured with an AutoDELFIA® (PerkinElmer, PerkinElmer, Turku, Finland) automatic immunoassay. Correlation and Passing-Bablok regression analyses were performed to compare marker levels. RESULTS: High correlation (>0.9) was observed for PAPP-A and ß-hCG levels between various sampling techniques. The ß-hCG concentration was stable between DBS and serum, PAPP-A concentration consistently lower in DBS. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that ß-hCG can be reliably collected from DBS in low-resource tropical settings. The exact conditions of the clinical workflow necessary for reliable PAPP-A measurement in these settings need to be further developed in the future. These findings could have implications for prenatal screening programs feasibility in low-income and middle-income countries, as DBS provides an alternative minimally invasive sampling method, with advantages in sampling technique, stability, logistics, and potential application in low-resource settings.

Evaluation of the use of RT-PCR for the early diagnosis of dengue fever.

RT-PCR was used to diagnose dengue virus infections confirmed serologically in 26 returning travellers. RT-PCR was positive for three (75%) of four samples taken on or before day 3 of the illness, for 15 (78.9%) of 19 samples taken between days 4 and 7, and for none of three samples tested on or after day 8 (p 0.0337). When applied early, RT-PCR seems to be a useful tool for the diagnosis of dengue fever.

A dietary pattern protective against type 2 diabetes in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)--Potsdam Study cohort.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to identify a dietary pattern associated with diabetes-related biomarkers and to investigate whether this pattern is associated with the incidence of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A nested case-control study of 192 cases of incident type 2 diabetes and 382 control subjects matched for sex and age was conducted. All subjects were participants in the population-based European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam Study. Dietary pattern score was derived using intake data on 48 food groups as exposure variables and the biomarkers HbA1c, HDL cholesterol, C-reactive protein and adiponectin as response variables in reduced rank regression. The association of the score with diabetes risk was estimated by conditional logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A high score for the identified dietary pattern was characterised by a high intake of fresh fruit and a low intake of high-caloric soft drinks, beer, red meat, poultry, processed meat, legumes and bread (excluding wholegrain bread). Subjects with high scores had high plasma concentrations of HDL cholesterol and adiponectin and low plasma concentrations of HbA1c and C-reactive protein. After multivariate adjustment, the odds ratios for type 2 diabetes across increasing quintiles of the dietary pattern score were 1.0, 0.59, 0.51, 0.26 and 0.27, respectively (p = 0.0006 for trend). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: A high score for the identified dietary pattern is associated with a more favourable biomarker profile and a substantially reduced incidence of type 2 diabetes.

Plasma folate as marker of folate status in epidemiological studies: the European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study.

Folate deficiency is often discussed as a potential risk factor for CVD and some cancers. Reliable assessment of folate status in large-scale epidemiological studies is therefore of major importance. The present study assessed the value of plasma folate (PF) compared with erythrocyte folate (EF) as a marker of folate status in 363 participants in the European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort. EF and PF, total homocysteine (tHcy), pyridoxine, cobalamin, creatinine, total protein and packed cell volume were determined; glutamate carboxypeptidase (GCP) C1561T, reduced folate carrier (RFC) G80A and methylenetetrahydrofolate (MTHFR) C677T polymorphisms were analysed. Anthropometric measurements were taken and dietary intake was assessed with the EPIC-Potsdam food-frequency questionnaire. Comparison of EF and PF with factors that may modulate their concentrations was performed. Cross-classification of blood folates in quintile categories resulted in correct classification into the same or adjacent category of 75.5 % of all subjects. Age, BMI, pyridoxine and cobalamin, fruit and vegetable intake, and vitamin supplementation 24 h before blood draw were positively associated with EF and with PF. For tHcy an inverse association was found. Participants with the MTHFR 677TT genotype showed significantly elevated EF concentrations compared with those with 677CT genotype; EF and PF were more strongly correlated (r 0.78, P<0.0001) for participants with MTHFR 677TT genotype than for those with the 677CC or 677CT genotype. In summary, our present results indicate that plasma folate seems to be a suitable marker for assessment of folate status for use in large-scale epidemiological studies.

Cooking of meat and fish in Europe--results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

OBJECTIVES: There is epidemiologic evidence that the consumption of fried, grilled or barbecued meat and fish that are well-done or browned may be associated with an increased cancer risk. These high-temperature cooking methods are thought to be surrogates for mutagens and carcinogens produced in meat and fish, eg heterocyclic amines or polycyclic hydrocarbons. Since data on food cooking methods are scarce, the aim of this study was to describe the variation in meat and fish cooking methods in different parts of Europe. DESIGN: Using a standardized 24 h recall from a sub-sample of the EPIC cohort (35 644 persons, 35-75 y old), mean daily intake of meat and fish prepared by different cooking methods and the relative contribution of the cooking methods to the overall cooking of meat and fish was calculated. RESULTS: Whereas frying was more often noted in northern Europe, roasting and stir frying were more often used in the south. Concerning high-temperature cooking methods, their frequency of application varies between 15% in the EPIC cohort of North-Italy and 49% in the cohort of The Netherlands. Average consumption of fried, grilled and barbecued meat and fish ranges from a low of 12 g/day in the centres in southern Spain to a high of 91 g/day in northern Spain. CONCLUSION: High variation in both the kind of meat/fish consumed as well as its cooking methods is observed within EPIC. In order to use this variation for the evaluation of the impact of cooking methods on cancer risk, a questionnaire on meat and fish cooking methods is being developed and could be applied in the whole EPIC cohort.

Recent weight changes and weight cycling as predictors of subsequent two year weight change in a middle-aged cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of recent weight changes (weight gain, loss and cycling) on subsequent weight changes. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study with 2 y of follow-up. Data analysis with a polytomous logistic regression model. SUBJECTS: A total of 18 001 non-smoking subjects, 6689 men and 11 312 women, from the general population. MEASUREMENTS: Body height and weight measurements and interview data on lifestyle habits and medical history at baseline. For follow-up, self-administered questionnaires for assessment of body weight and incident diseases. RESULTS: Recent changes in body weight, that is weight gain, weight loss and weight cycling, were significant predictors of subsequent weight changes in both men and women after controlling for age, baseline BMI and several lifestyle and behavioural characteristics as potential confounding factors. Weight cycling before baseline was the strongest predictor of subsequent large weight gain (> or =2 kg) with an odds ratio (OR) of 4.84 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.34-7.02) in men. In women, prior weight loss was the strongest predictor of subsequent large weight gain (OR 4.77; 95% CI 3.63-6.03), followed by weight cycling (OR 3.02; 95% CI 2.15-4.25). CONCLUSION: These data indicate the need for thorough weight history assessment to identify those who are most likely to gain weight. Effective weight control before the development of obesity or after intentional weight loss due to obesity should be a primary goal in the management of obesity.