Decreasing global tropical cyclone frequency in CMIP6 historical simulations.

The impact of anthropogenic global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency remains a challenging issue, partly due to a relatively short period of reliable observational TC records and inconsistencies in climate model simulations. Using TC detection from 20 CMIP6 historical simulations, we show that the majority (75%) of these models show a decrease in global-scale TC frequency from 1850 to 2014. We demonstrated that this result is largely explained by weakened mid-tropospheric upward motion in CMIP6 models over the Pacific and Atlantic main development regions. The reduced upward motion is due to a zonal circulation adjustment and shifts in Intertropical Convergence Zone in response to global warming. In the South Indian Ocean, reduced TC frequency is mainly due to the decreased survival rate of TC seeds because of an increased saturation deficit in a warming climate. Our analysis highlights global warming's potential impact on the historical decrease in global TC frequency.

Earlier onset of North Atlantic hurricane season with warming oceans.

Numerous Atlantic basin tropical cyclones have recently developed prior to the official start of hurricane season, including several pre-season landfalls in the continental United States. Pre-season and early-season tropical cyclones disproportionately affect populated landmasses, often producing outsized precipitation impacts. Here we show a significant trend towards earlier onset of tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin, with threshold dates of the first three percentiles of accumulated cyclone energy shifting earlier at a rate exceeding five days decade-1 since 1979, even correcting for biases in climatology due to increased detection of short-lived storms. Initial threshold dates of continental United States named storm landfalls have trended earlier by two days decade-1 since 1900. The trend towards additional pre-season and early-season activity is linked to spring thermodynamic conditions becoming more conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Genesis potential index value increases in the western Atlantic basin are primarily driven by warming ocean temperatures.

The increasing variability of tropical cyclone lifetime maximum intensity.

This study investigates long-term changes in the variability of TC intensity of global tropical cyclones, a topic which has been relatively infrequently studied to date. Our study finds that the variability of global TC lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), as measured by the LMI standard deviation, increases during 1981-2016. The increasing trend in LMI variability is statistically significant for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, with three individual TC basins: the western North Pacific, the South Indian and the South Pacific also having statistically significant increases. This increasing trend primarily results from distinct changes in the relative percentages of TCs with different intensities. When comparing two periods: 1981-1998 and 1999-2016, the proportions of weak and strong TCs increase, whereas moderate TCs occur relatively less frequently. This bimodal pattern of observed LMI distribution change is further linked to opposite trends in the average intensities of TCs that undergo rapid intensification (RI) during their lifetime (RI TCs) and those that do not (non-RI TCs). The LMI distributions of RI and non-RI TCs migrate to higher and lower intensities, respectively. Our results demonstrate from an observational perspective that strong TCs have strengthened while weak TCs have weakened as the global climate has warmed since 1981.

The trauma signature of 2016 Hurricane Matthew and the psychosocial impact on Haiti.

Background. Hurricane Matthew was the most powerful tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Basin season, bringing severe impacts to multiple nations including direct landfalls in Cuba, Haiti, Bahamas, and the United States. However, Haiti experienced the greatest loss of life and population disruption. Methods. An established trauma signature (TSIG) methodology was used to examine the psychological consequences of Hurricane Matthew in relation to the distinguishing features of this event. TSIG analyses described the exposures of Haitian citizens to the unique constellation of hazards associated with this tropical cyclone. A hazard profile, a matrix of psychological stressors, and a "trauma signature" summary for the affected population of Haiti - in terms of exposures to hazard, loss, and change - were created specifically for this natural ecological disaster. Results. Hazard characteristics of this event included: deluging rains that triggered mudslides along steep, deforested terrain; battering hurricane winds (Category 4 winds in the "eye-wall" at landfall) that dismantled the built environment and launched projectile debris; flooding "storm surge" that moved ashore and submerged villages on the Tiburon peninsula; and pummeling wave action that destroyed infrastructure along the coastline. Many coastal residents were left defenseless to face the ravages of the storm. Hurricane Matthew's slow forward progress as it remained over super-heated ocean waters added to the duration and degree of the devastation. Added to the havoc of the storm itself, the risks for infectious disease spread, particularly in relation to ongoing epidemics of cholera and Zika, were exacerbated. Conclusions. Hurricane Matthew was a ferocious tropical cyclone whose meteorological characteristics amplified the system's destructive force during the storm's encounter with Haiti, leading to significant mortality, injury, and psychological trauma.