RESUMO
BACKGROUND: New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) occurs in 5% to 15% of patients who undergo transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Cardiac imaging has been underutilized to predict NOAF following TAVR. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this analysis was to compare and assess standard, manual echocardiographic and cardiac computed tomography (cCT) measurements as well as machine learning-derived cCT measurements of left atrial volume index and epicardial adipose tissue as risk factors for NOAF following TAVR. METHODS: The study included 1,385 patients undergoing elective, transfemoral TAVR for severe, symptomatic aortic stenosis. Each patient had standard and machine learning-derived measurements of left atrial volume and epicardial adipose tissue from cardiac computed tomography. The outcome of interest was NOAF within 30 days following TAVR. We used a 2-step statistical model including random forest for variable importance ranking, followed by multivariable logistic regression for predictors of highest importance. Model discrimination was assessed by using the C-statistic to compare the performance of the models with and without imaging. RESULTS: Forty-seven (5.0%) of 935 patients without pre-existing atrial fibrillation (AF) experienced NOAF. Patients with pre-existing AF had the largest left atrial volume index at 76.3 ± 28.6 cm3/m2 followed by NOAF at 68.1 ± 26.6 cm3/m2 and then no AF at 57.0 ± 21.7 cm3/m2 (P < 0.001). Multivariable regression identified the following risk factors in association with NOAF: left atrial volume index ≥76 cm2 (OR: 2.538 [95% CI: 1.165-5.531]; P = 0.0191), body mass index <22 kg/m2 (OR: 4.064 [95% CI: 1.500-11.008]; P = 0.0058), EATv (OR: 1.007 [95% CI: 1.000-1.014]; P = 0.043), aortic annulus area ≥659 mm2 (OR: 6.621 [95% CI: 1.849-23.708]; P = 0.004), and sinotubular junction diameter ≥35 mm (OR: 3.891 [95% CI: 1.040-14.552]; P = 0.0435). The C-statistic of the model was 0.737, compared with 0.646 in a model that excluded imaging variables. CONCLUSIONS: Underlying cardiac structural differences derived from cardiac imaging may be useful in predicting NOAF following transfemoral TAVR, independent of other clinical risk factors.
RESUMO
Background: Traditional risk scores for recurrent atrial fibrillation (AF) following catheter ablation utilize readily available clinical and echocardiographic variables and yet have limited discriminatory capacity. Use of data from cardiac imaging and deep learning may help improve accuracy and prediction of recurrent AF after ablation. Methods: We evaluated patients with symptomatic, drug-refractory AF undergoing catheter ablation. All patients underwent pre-ablation cardiac computed tomography (cCT). LAVi was computed using a deep-learning algorithm. In a two-step analysis, random survival forest (RSF) was used to generate prognostic models with variables of highest importance, followed by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis of the selected variables. Events of interest included early and late recurrence. Results: Among 653 patients undergoing AF ablation, the most important factors associated with late recurrence by RSF analysis at 24 (+/-18) months follow-up included LAVi and early recurrence. In total, 5 covariates were identified as independent predictors of late recurrence: LAVi (HR per mL/m2 1.01 [1.01-1.02]; p < .001), early recurrence (HR 2.42 [1.90-3.09]; p < .001), statin use (HR 1.38 [1.09-1.75]; p = .007), beta-blocker use (HR 1.29 [1.01-1.65]; p = .043), and adjunctive cavotricuspid isthmus ablation [HR 0.74 (0.57-0.96); p = .02]. Survival analysis demonstrated that patients with both LAVi >66.7 mL/m2 and early recurrence had the highest risk of late recurrence risk compared with those with LAVi <66.7 mL/m2 and no early recurrence (HR 4.52 [3.36-6.08], p < .001). Conclusions: Machine learning-derived, full volumetric LAVi from cCT is the most important pre-procedural risk factor for late AF recurrence following catheter ablation. The combination of increased LAVi and early recurrence confers more than a four-fold increased risk of late recurrence.
