A Smartphone-Driven Thermometer Application for Real-time Population- and Individual-Level Influenza Surveillance.

Background: Smartphone-based sensors may enable real-time surveillance of infectious diseases at population and household levels. This study evaluates the use of data from commercially available "smart thermometers," connected to a mobile phone application, for surveillance of influenza-like illness (ILI). Methods: At a population level, we analyzed the correlation between thermometer recordings and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-reported ILI activity nationally and by age group and region. We developed time-series models to forecast ILI activity in real time and up to 3 weeks in advance. We analyzed the ability of thermometer readings to track the duration of fevers and identify biphasic fever patterns. We also investigated potential transmission of febrile illness within households among device users. Results: Thermometer readings were highly correlated with national ILI activity (r > 0.95) and activity patterns across regions and age groups. Thermometer readings also significantly improved forecasts of ILI activity in real time and up to 3 weeks in advance. We found that fevers lasting between 3 and 6 days and biphasic fever episodes occurred more frequently during the influenza season. In addition, potential cases of in-household transmission of febrile illness originated more frequently from children than adults. Conclusions: Smart thermometers represent a novel source of information for influenza surveillance and forecasting. Thermometer readings capture real-time ILI activity at a population level, and they can also be used to generate improved forecasts. Moreover, the widespread deployment of these smart thermometers may also allow for more rapid and efficient surveillance at the household level.

Optimizing antiretroviral product selection: a sample approach to improving patient outcomes, saving money, and scaling-up health services in developing countries.

Over the last decade, increased funding to support HIV treatment programs has enabled millions of new patients in developing countries to access the medications they need. Today, although demand for antiretrovirals continues to grow, the financial crisis has severely constrained funding leaving countries with difficult choices on program prioritization. Product optimization is one solution countries can pursue to continue to improve patient care while also uncovering savings that can be used for further scale up or other health system needs. Program managers can make procurement decisions that actually reduce program costs by considering additional factors beyond World Health Organization guidelines when making procurement decisions. These include in-country product availability, convenience, price, and logistics such as supply chain implications and laboratory testing requirements. Three immediate product selection opportunities in the HIV space include using boosted atazanavir in place of lopinovir for second-line therapy, lamivudine instead of emtricitabine in both first-line and second-line therapy, and tenofovir + lamivudine over abacavir + didanosine in second-line therapy. If these 3 opportunities were broadly implemented in sub-Saharan Africa and India today, approximately $300 million of savings would be realized over the next 5 years, enabling hundreds of thousands of additional patients to be treated. Although the discussion herein is specific to antriretrovirals, the principles of product selection are generalizable to diseases with multiple treatment options and fungible commodity procurement. Identifying and implementing approaches to overcome health system inefficiencies will help sustain and may expand quality care in resource-limited settings.