Clinical prediction rules for mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism and cancer to guide outpatient management: a meta-analysis.

Essentials Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) can stratify patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) and cancer. A meta-analysis was done to assess prognostic accuracy in CPRs for mortality in these patients. Eight studies evaluating ten CPRs were included in this study. CPRs should continue to be used with other patient factors for mortality risk stratification. SUMMARY: Background Cancer treatment is commonly complicated by pulmonary embolism (PE), which remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in these patients. Some guidelines recommend the use of clinical prediction rules (CPRs) to help clinicians identify patients at low risk of mortality and therefore guide care. Objective To determine and compare the accuracy of available CPRs for identifying cancer patients with PE at low risk of mortality. Methods A literature search of Medline and Scopus (January 2000 to August 2017) was performed. Studies deriving/validating ≥ 1 CPR for early post-PE all-cause mortality were included. A bivariate, random-effects model was used to pool sensitivity and specificity estimates for each CPR. Traditional random-effects meta-analysis was performed to estimate the weighted proportion of patients deemed at low risk of early mortality, mortality in low risk patients and odds ratios for death compared with higher-risk patients. Results Eight studies evaluating 10 CPRs were included. The highest sensitivities were observed with Hestia (98.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 75.6-99.9%) and the EPIPHANY index (97.4%, 95% CI = 93.2-99.0%); sensitivities of remaining rules ranged from 59.9 to 96.6%. Of the six CPRs with sensitivities ≥ 95%, none had specificities > 33%. Random-effects meta-analysis suggested that 6.6-51.6% of cancer patients with PE were at low risk of mortality, 0-14.3% of low-risk patients died and low-risk patients had a 43-94% lower odds of death compared with those at higher risk. Conclusions Because of the limited total body of evidence regarding CPRs, their results, in conjunction with other pertinent patient-specific clinical factors, should continue to be used in identifying appropriate management for PE in patients with cancer.

External validation of the In-hospital Mortality for PulmonAry embolism using Claims daTa (IMPACT) multivariable prediction rule.

OBJECTIVE: To validate the In-hospital Mortality for PulmonAry embolism using Claims daTa (IMPACT) multivariable prediction rule using admission claims data. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective claims database analysis. METHODS: This analysis was performed using Humana admission claims data from January 2007 to March 2014. We included adult patients admitted for their first PE during this period (International Classification of Diseases, ninth edition, Clinical Modification code of 415.1x in in the primary position or secondary position when accompanied by a primary code for a PE complication). The IMPACT rule, consisting of age plus 11 comorbidities, was used to estimate patients' probability of in-hospital mortality and classify risk. Low risk was defined as in-hospital mortality ≤ 1.5%. IMPACT was evaluated by evaluating prognostic test characteristic values and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: A total of 23,858 patients admitted for PE were included, and 3.3% died in-hospital. The IMPACT prediction rule classified 2371 (9.9%) as low-risk; with a sensitivity of 97.6%, 95% CI: 96.1-98.5, specificity of 10.2%, 95% CI: 9.8-10.6, negative and positive predictive values of 99.2% (95% CI: 98.7-99.5) and 3.5% (95% CI: 3.3-3.8) and c-statistic of 0.70, 95% CI: 0.0.68-0.72, for in-hospital mortality. IMPACT classified 42.7% of patients < 65 years old as low-risk; with a sensitivity, specificity and c-statistic of 85.0%, 95% CI: 77.4-90.5, 43.3%, 95% CI: 42.0-44.7 and 0.74, 95% CI: 0.69-0.78, respectively. CONCLUSION: The IMPACT prediction rule was valid when implemented in a database consisting largely of Medicare claims. Following further external validation and direct comparison to commonly used clinical prediction rules, IMPACT may become a valuable tool for payers and hospitals wishing to retrospectively assess whether their PE patients are being kept hospitalized for the optimal period of time.

Efficacy and safety of antihyperglycaemic drug regimens added to metformin and sulphonylurea therapy in Type 2 diabetes: a network meta-analysis.

AIM: To assess the efficacy and safety of third-line adjuvant antihyperglycaemic agents in people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus failing metformin and sulphonylurea combination therapy. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, CENTRAL, clinicaltrials.gov and regulatory websites, and conducted a manual search of references in the identified studies. Randomized trials evaluating antihyperglycaemic agents in adults with Type 2 diabetes experiencing poor glycaemic control despite optimized metformin and sulphonylurea therapy (≥ 1500 mg metformin or maximum tolerated dose; ≥ 50% of maximum sulphonylurea dose for ≥ 3 weeks) were included. Data extraction included: study characteristics; change in HbA1c concentration; weight; systolic blood pressure; and relative risk of hypoglycaemia, urinary tract infections; and genital tract infections. A network meta-analysis was performed. RESULTS: A total of 20 trials evaluating 13 antihyperglycaemic agents were included. Compared with placebo/control, all antihyperglycaemic agents reduced HbA1c levels, albeit by differing magnitudes [range 7 mmol/mol (0.6%) for acarbose to 13 mmol/mol (1.20%) for liraglutide]. Sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors reduced weight (1.43-2.07 kg) whereas thiazolidinediones, glargine and sitagliptin caused weight gain (1.48-3.62 kg) compared with placebo/control. Sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, rosiglitazone and liraglutide decreased systolic blood pressure compared with placebo/control, pioglitazone, glargine and sitagliptin (2.41-8.88 mm Hg). Glargine, thiazolidinediones, liraglutide, sitagliptin and canagliflozin increased hypoglycaemia risk compared with placebo/control (relative risk 1.92-7.47), while glargine and rosiglitazone increased hypoglycaemia compared with most antihyperglycaemic agents (relative risk 2.81-7.47). No antihyperglycaemic agent increased the risk of urinary tract infection, but canagliflozin increased the risk of genital tract infection by 3.9-fold compared with placebo/control. CONCLUSIONS: When added to metformin and a sulphonylurea, antihyperglycaemic agents had varying effects on efficacy and safety endpoints. These conclusions should be considered when clinicians choose between possible adjunctive agents.

Index clinical manifestation of venous thromboembolism predicts early recurrence type and frequency: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies suggest index clinical manifestation of venous thromboembolism (VTE) predicts recurrence type. Data regarding the association between index manifestation and recurrence rates are conflicting. OBJECTIVES: To perform a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to determine the type and frequency of recurrent VTE (rVTE) in persons after an index deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism (PE). PATIENTS/METHODS: We searched bibliographic databases for RCTs of acute (early) treatment of rVTE in persons with an index DVT or PE (±DVT), enrolling ≥ 50 subjects anticoagulated ≥ 3-months and reporting types of rVTE. We pooled (random-effects) the proportion of rVTEs that were DVTs, PEs, and fatal PEs, the proportion of recurrent PEs that were fatal, and absolute rVTE rates. RESULTS: In nine RCTs (N = 13 640; 413 rVTEs) evaluating persons with an index PE; 66% (95% CI, 60-72%) of rVTEs were PE and 27% (95% CI, 22-33%) were fatal PE. Among 25 RCTs (N = 17 340; 692 rVTEs) evaluating persons with an index DVT, 36% (95% CI, 29-44%) experienced a recurrent PE and 10% (95% CI, 7-13%) a fatal PE. Recurrent PEs following an index PE had a higher fatality rate than after an index DVT (41%; 95% CI, 33-48% vs. 25%; 95% CI, 18-33%; P = 0.007). The rVTE rate was higher following an index DVT compared with a PE (2.6%; 95% CI, 1.6-3.8% vs. 4.9%; 95% CI, 4.0-6.0%; P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Our meta-analysis suggests most rVTEs will be the same type as the index event. While index DVTs are associated with a higher rVTE rate than index PEs; recurrent PEs are associated with high fatality.