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BACKGROUND: Our study aimed to assess how effective the preventative measures taken by the state authorities during the pandemic were in terms of public health protection and the rational use of material and human resources. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We utilized a stochastic agent-based model for COVID-19's spread combined with the WHO-recommended COVID-ESFT version 2.0 tool for material and labor cost estimation. RESULTS: Our long-term forecasts (up to 50 days) showed satisfactory results with a steady trend in the total cases. However, the short-term forecasts (up to 10 days) were more accurate during periods of relative stability interrupted by sudden outbreaks. The simulations indicated that the infection's spread was highest within families, with most COVID-19 cases occurring in the 26-59 age group. Government interventions resulted in 3.2 times fewer cases in Karaganda than predicted under a "no intervention" scenario, yielding an estimated economic benefit of 40%. CONCLUSION: The combined tool we propose can accurately forecast the progression of the infection, enabling health organizations to allocate specialists and material resources in a timely manner.
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BACKGROUND: Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists have begun to actively use models to determine the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen. The transmission rate, recovery rate and loss of immunity to the COVID-19 virus change over time and depend on many factors, such as the seasonality of pneumonia, mobility, testing frequency, the use of masks, the weather, social behavior, stress, public health measures, etc. Therefore, the aim of our study was to predict COVID-19 using a stochastic model based on the system dynamics approach. METHOD: We developed a modified SIR model in AnyLogic software. The key stochastic component of the model is the transmission rate, which we consider as an implementation of Gaussian random walks with unknown variance, which was learned from real data. RESULTS: The real data of total cases turned out to be outside the predicted minimum-maximum interval. The minimum predicted values of total cases were closest to the real data. Thus, the stochastic model we propose gives satisfactory results for predicting COVID-19 from 25 to 100 days. The information we currently have about this infection does not allow us to make predictions with high accuracy in the medium and long term. CONCLUSIONS: In our opinion, the problem of the long-term forecasting of COVID-19 is associated with the absence of any educated guess regarding the dynamics of ß(t) in the future. The proposed model requires improvement with the elimination of limitations and the inclusion of more stochastic parameters.
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We propose the method to compute the nonlinear parameters of heart rhythm (correlation dimension D2 and correlation entropy K2) using 5-minute ECG recordings preferred for screening of population. Conversion of RR intervals' time series into continuous function x(t) allows getting the new time series with different sampling rate dt. It has been shown that for all dt (250, 200, 125, and 100 ms) the cross-plots of D2 and K2 against embedding dimension m for phase-space reconstruction start to level off at m = 9. The sample size N at different sampling rates varied from 1200 at dt = 250 ms to 3000 at dt = 100 ms. Along with, the D2 and K2 means were not statistically different; that is, the sampling rate did not influence the results. We tested the feasibility of the method in two models: nonlinear heart rhythm dynamics in different states of autonomous nervous system and age-related characteristics of nonlinear parameters. According to the acquired data, the heart rhythm is more complex in childhood and adolescence with more influential parasympathetic influence against the background of elevated activity of sympathetic autonomous nervous system.
