Disease Progression of Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: Modeling Using Machine Learning.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disorders in general are responsible for 30% of deaths worldwide. Among them, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a genetic cardiac disease that is present in about 1 of 500 young adults and can cause sudden cardiac death (SCD). OBJECTIVE: Although the current state-of-the-art methods model the risk of SCD for patients, to the best of our knowledge, no methods are available for modeling the patient's clinical status up to 10 years ahead. In this paper, we propose a novel machine learning (ML)-based tool for predicting disease progression for patients diagnosed with HCM in terms of adverse remodeling of the heart during a 10-year period. METHODS: The method consisted of 6 predictive regression models that independently predict future values of 6 clinical characteristics: left atrial size, left atrial volume, left ventricular ejection fraction, New York Heart Association functional classification, left ventricular internal diastolic diameter, and left ventricular internal systolic diameter. We supplemented each prediction with the explanation that is generated using the Shapley additive explanation method. RESULTS: The final experiments showed that predictive error is lower on 5 of the 6 constructed models in comparison to experts (on average, by 0.34) or a consortium of experts (on average, by 0.22). The experiments revealed that semisupervised learning and the artificial data from virtual patients help improve predictive accuracies. The best-performing random forest model improved R2 from 0.3 to 0.6. CONCLUSIONS: By engaging medical experts to provide interpretation and validation of the results, we determined the models' favorable performance compared to the performance of experts for 5 of 6 targets.

A machine learning-based risk stratification model for ventricular tachycardia and heart failure in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence are emerging as important components of precision medicine that enhance diagnosis and risk stratification. Risk stratification tools for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) exist, but they are based on traditional statistical methods. The aim was to develop a novel machine learning risk stratification tool for the prediction of 5-year risk in HCM. The goal was to determine if its predictive accuracy is higher than the accuracy of the state-of-the-art tools. METHOD: Data from a total of 2302 patients were used. The data were comprised of demographic characteristics, genetic data, clinical investigations, medications, and disease-related events. Four classification models were applied to model the risk level, and their decisions were explained using the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method. Unwanted cardiac events were defined as sustained ventricular tachycardia occurrence (VT), heart failure (HF), ICD activation, sudden cardiac death (SCD), cardiac death, and all-cause death. RESULTS: The proposed machine learning approach outperformed the similar existing risk-stratification models for SCD, cardiac death, and all-cause death risk-stratification: it achieved higher AUC by 17%, 9%, and 1%, respectively. The boosted trees achieved the best performing AUC of 0.82. The resulting model most accurately predicts VT, HF, and ICD with AUCs of 0.90, 0.88, and 0.87, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed risk-stratification model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting events in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The use of a machine-learning risk stratification model may improve patient management, clinical practice, and outcomes in general.

PubMed-Scale Chemical Concept Embeddings Reconstruct Physical Protein Interaction Networks.

PubMed is the largest resource of curated biomedical knowledge to date, entailing more than 25 million documents. Large quantities of novel literature prevent a single expert from keeping track of all potentially relevant papers, resulting in knowledge gaps. In this article, we present CHEMMESHNET, a newly developed PubMed-based network comprising more than 10,000,000 associations, constructed from expert-curated MeSH annotations of chemicals based on all currently available PubMed articles. By learning latent representations of concepts in the obtained network, we demonstrate in a proof of concept study that purely literature-based representations are sufficient for the reconstruction of a large part of the currently known network of physical, empirically determined protein-protein interactions. We demonstrate that simple linear embeddings of node pairs, when coupled with a neural network-based classifier, reliably reconstruct the existing collection of empirically confirmed protein-protein interactions. Furthermore, we demonstrate how pairs of learned representations can be used to prioritize potentially interesting novel interactions based on the common chemical context. Highly ranked interactions are qualitatively inspected in terms of potential complex formation at the structural level and represent potentially interesting new knowledge. We demonstrate that two protein-protein interactions, prioritized by structure-based approaches, also emerge as probable with regard to the trained machine-learning model.