Development of a long term, ex vivo, patient-derived explant model of endometrial cancer.

Incidence of endometrial cancer (EC) is rising in the developed world. The current standard of care, hysterectomy, is often infeasible for younger patients and those with high body mass index. There are limited non-surgical treatment options and a lack of biologically relevant research models to investigate novel alternatives to surgery for EC. The aim of the present study was to develop a long-term, patient-derived explant (PDE) model of early-stage EC and demonstrate its use for investigating predictive biomarkers for a current non-surgical treatment option, the levonorgestrel intra-uterine system (LNG-IUS). Fresh tumour specimens were obtained from patients with early-stage endometrioid EC. Tumours were cut into explants, cultured on media-soaked gelatin sponges for up to 21 days and treated with LNG. Formalin-fixed, paraffin embedded (FFPE) blocks were generated for each explant after 21 days in culture. Tumour architecture and integrity were assessed by haematoxylin and eosin (H&E) and immunohistochemistry (IHC). IHC was additionally performed for the expression of five candidate biomarkers of LNG resistance. The developed ex vivo PDE model is capable of culturing explants from early-stage EC tumours long-term (21 Days). This model can complement existing models and may serve as a tool to validate results obtained in higher-throughput in vitro studies. Our study provides the foundation to validate the extent to which EC PDEs reflect patient response in future research.

Does the Microenvironment Hold the Hidden Key for Functional Precision Medicine in Pancreatic Cancer?

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most lethal cancers and no significant improvement in patient survival has been seen in the past three decades. Treatment options are limited and selection of chemotherapy in the clinic is usually based on the performance status of a patient rather than the biology of their disease. In recent years, research has attempted to unlock a personalised treatment strategy by identifying actionable molecular targets in tumour cells or using preclinical models to predict the effectiveness of chemotherapy. However, these approaches rely on the biology of PDAC tumour cells only and ignore the importance of the microenvironment and fibrotic stroma. In this review, we highlight the importance of the microenvironment in driving the chemoresistant nature of PDAC and the need for preclinical models to mimic the complex multi-cellular microenvironment of PDAC in the precision medicine pipeline. We discuss the potential for ex vivo whole-tissue culture models to inform precision medicine and their role in developing novel therapeutic strategies that hit both tumour and stromal compartments in PDAC. Thus, we highlight the critical role of the tumour microenvironment that needs to be addressed before a precision medicine program for PDAC can be implemented.

Cancer-Associated Fibroblasts in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Determine Response to SLC7A11 Inhibition.

Cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAF) are major contributors to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) progression through protumor signaling and the generation of fibrosis, the latter of which creates a physical barrier to drugs. CAF inhibition is thus an ideal component of any therapeutic approach for PDAC. SLC7A11 is a cystine transporter that has been identified as a potential therapeutic target in PDAC cells. However, no prior study has evaluated the role of SLC7A11 in PDAC tumor stroma and its prognostic significance. Here we show that high expression of SLC7A11 in human PDAC tumor stroma, but not tumor cells, is independently prognostic of poorer overall survival. Orthogonal approaches showed that PDAC-derived CAFs are highly dependent on SLC7A11 for cystine uptake and glutathione synthesis and that SLC7A11 inhibition significantly decreases CAF proliferation, reduces their resistance to oxidative stress, and inhibits their ability to remodel collagen and support PDAC cell growth. Importantly, specific ablation of SLC7A11 from the tumor compartment of transgenic mouse PDAC tumors did not affect tumor growth, suggesting the stroma can substantially influence PDAC tumor response to SLC7A11 inhibition. In a mouse orthotopic PDAC model utilizing human PDAC cells and CAFs, stable knockdown of SLC7A11 was required in both cell types to reduce tumor growth, metastatic spread, and intratumoral fibrosis, demonstrating the importance of targeting SLC7A11 in both compartments. Finally, treatment with a nanoparticle gene-silencing drug against SLC7A11, developed by our laboratory, reduced PDAC tumor growth, incidence of metastases, CAF activation, and fibrosis in orthotopic PDAC tumors. Overall, these findings identify an important role of SLC7A11 in PDAC-derived CAFs in supporting tumor growth. SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates that SLC7A11 in PDAC stromal cells is important for the tumor-promoting activity of CAFs and validates a clinically translatable nanomedicine for therapeutic SLC7A11 inhibition in PDAC.

Ex vivo culture of intact human patient derived pancreatic tumour tissue.

The poor prognosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is attributed to the highly fibrotic stroma and complex multi-cellular microenvironment that is difficult to fully recapitulate in pre-clinical models. To fast-track translation of therapies and to inform personalised medicine, we aimed to develop a whole-tissue ex vivo explant model that maintains viability, 3D multicellular architecture, and microenvironmental cues of human pancreatic tumours. Patient-derived surgically-resected PDAC tissue was cut into 1-2 mm explants and cultured on gelatin sponges for 12 days. Immunohistochemistry revealed that human PDAC explants were viable for 12 days and maintained their original tumour, stromal and extracellular matrix architecture. As proof-of-principle, human PDAC explants were treated with Abraxane and we observed different levels of response between patients. PDAC explants were also transfected with polymeric nanoparticles + Cy5-siRNA and we observed abundant cytoplasmic distribution of Cy5-siRNA throughout the PDAC explants. Overall, our novel model retains the 3D architecture of human PDAC and has advantages over standard organoids: presence of functional multi-cellular stroma and fibrosis, and no tissue manipulation, digestion, or artificial propagation of organoids. This provides unprecedented opportunity to study PDAC biology including tumour-stromal interactions and rapidly assess therapeutic response to drive personalised treatment.

Targeting the undruggable in pancreatic cancer using nano-based gene silencing drugs.

Pancreatic cancer is predicted to be the second leading cause of cancer-related death by 2025. The best chemotherapy only extends survival by an average of 18 weeks. The extensive fibrotic stroma surrounding the tumor curbs therapeutic options as chemotherapy drugs cannot freely penetrate the tumor. RNA interference (RNAi) has emerged as a promising approach to revolutionize cancer treatment. Small interfering RNA (siRNA) can be designed to inhibit the expression of any gene which is important given the high degree of genetic heterogeneity present in pancreatic tumors. Despite the potential of siRNA therapies, there are hurdles limiting their clinical application such as poor transport across biological barriers, limited cellular uptake, degradation, and rapid clearance. Nanotechnology can address these challenges. In fact, the past few decades have seen the conceptualization, design, pre-clinical testing and recent clinical approval of a RNAi nanodrug to treat disease. In this review, we comment on the current state of play of clinical trials evaluating siRNA nanodrugs and review pre-clinical studies investigating the efficacy of siRNA therapeutics in pancreatic cancer. We assess the physiological barriers unique to pancreatic cancer that need to be considered when designing and testing new nanomedicines for this disease.

Relationship of fibroblast growth factor 21 with subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) has been suggested as a novel biomarker for cardiovascular disease (CVD), especially in people with high CVD risk. However, it is not known whether FGF21 is a CVD biomarker in an initially healthy cohort. We therefore investigated the relationship of plasma FGF21 levels with measures of subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events in Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants without known CVD at baseline. METHODS: A total of 5788 participants had plasma FGF21 levels measured at the baseline exam (2000-2002). Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), ankle-brachial index (ABI) and coronary artery calcification (CAC) were measured at baseline. Participants were followed up for incident CVD events over a median period of 14 years. RESULTS: In cross-sectional analyses adjusting for socio-demographic variables, participants with higher FGF21 levels had higher carotid IMT, lower ABI, and higher prevalence of CAC (p < 0.001). However, these associations were not significant after simultaneously adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors, traditional CVD risk factors, and biomarkers of inflammation and hemostasis. Among 5768 patients with follow-up data, 820 developed incident CVD endpoints. Higher baseline FGF21 levels were not associated with the risk for incident CVD endpoints after adjusting for multiple confounding factors (odds ratio 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-1.12, per SD increase in ln-transformed FGF21 levels). CONCLUSIONS: Although FGF21 has been suggested as a CVD biomarker for people with high CVD risk, our findings do not support a role of FGF21 as a CVD biomarker in those without a history of CVD.

Association of elevated circulating fibroblast growth factor 21 levels with prevalent and incident metabolic syndrome: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) plays an important role in glucose and lipid metabolism. We have investigated the relationship of plasma FGF21 levels with both prevalent and incident metabolic syndrome (MetS) in participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). METHODS: 5783 participants from four major ethnic groups (non-Hispanic white, African American, Hispanic American, and Chinese American) were included in the cross-sectional analysis. Longitudinal analysis involved 3479 participants without MetS at baseline, of whom 1100 participants developed incident MetS over 9.2 years. RESULTS: Elevated FGF21 levels were found in participants with prevalent MetS (median [interquartile range] = 189.4 [114.4-302.1] vs. 123.7 [65.9-210.3] pg/mL, p < 0.001) or incident MetS (145.6 [84.9-240.8] vs 112.0 [57.0-194.5] pg/mL, p < 0.001), compared to those without. After adjusting for baseline demographic, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors, as well as cardiovascular risk factors and biomarkers, and compared to the lowest quartile, the highest FGF21 quartile was associated with prevalent MetS (odds ratio 2.80; 95% confidence interval, 2.30-3.40, p < 0.001). Among participants without MetS at baseline, the highest FGF21 quartile was associated with higher risk of incident MetS (hazards ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.46-2.12, p < 0.001). Similar results were obtained when assessing ln-transformed FGF21 levels. Overall, no significant interaction was found with age, sex, and race/ethnicity for both prevalent and incident MetS. CONCLUSIONS: Higher FGF21 levels significantly predict the development of MetS in an ethnically diverse population followed long term. Further studies are needed to confirm the potential role of FGF21 as a biomarker for MetS.

The role of fibroblast growth factor 21 in atherosclerosis.

The metabolic properties of the endocrine fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) have been extensively studied in the past decade. Previous studies have demonstrated the lipid-lowering, anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidant properties of FGF21. FGF21 is mainly secreted in the liver and adipose tissue in response to a range of physiological and pathological stimuli. In animal and in vitro studies, FGF21 has been shown to improve lipid profiles and inhibit key processes in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis. It exerts its effects on the cardiovascular system via adiponectin dependent and independent mechanisms. However, the signalling pathways by which FGF21 exerts its effects on endothelial cells remains unknown and needs to be further investigated. The elevation of circulating FGF21 levels in cardiovascular disease has also raised questions as to whether FGF21 can be used as a biomarker to predict subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events. Recent findings from population studies must be validated in independent cohorts before FGF21 can be used as a biomarker in the clinical setting. The anti-atherosclerotic effects of FGF21 have been investigated in two recent clinical trials, where treatment with an FGF21 analog significantly improved the cardiometabolic profile in obese patients with type 2 diabetes. This review will evaluate recent advances that suggest there may be a role for FGF21 in atherosclerosis.

Cardiorespiratory fitness and the paradoxical BMI-mortality risk association in male veterans.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of fitness status on the paradoxical body mass index (BMI)-mortality risk association. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From February 1, 1986, through December 30, 2011, we assessed fitness and BMI in 18,033 male veterans (mean age, 58.4 ± 11.4 years) in 2 Veterans Affairs Medical centers. We established 3 fitness categories on the basis of peak metabolic equivalents achieved during an exercise test as well as 5 BMI categories. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. RESULTS: During the follow-up period (median, 10.8 years, comprising a total of 207,168 person-years), 5070 participants (28%) died. After adjusting for age, risk factors, muscle-wasting diseases, medications, and year of entry, mortality risk was higher for individuals with a BMI of 20.1 to 23.9 kg/m(2) (hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.12-1.30) and 18.5 to 20.0 kg/m(2) (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.37-1.77) than for those with a BMI of 24.0 to 27.9 kg/m(2); mortality risk was not increased for those with a BMI of 28.0 kg/m(2) or greater. When stratified by fitness, the trend was similar for low-fit and moderate-fit individuals. However, mortality risk was not increased for high-fit individuals across BMI categories. When fitness status was considered within each BMI category, mortality risk increased progressively with decreased fitness and was more pronounced for moderate-fit (HR, 2.52; 95% CI, 2.06-3.08) and low-fit (HR, 2.48; 95% CI, 2.0-3.06) individuals with a BMI of 18.5-20.0 kg/m(2). Mortality risk was not significantly increased for high-fit individuals (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.78-1.78; P=.45). CONCLUSION: A high mortality risk associated with low BMI levels was observed only in moderate-fit and low-fit individuals, and not in high-fit individuals. Thus, fitness greatly affects the paradoxical BMI-mortality risk association. Furthermore, our findings indicate that lower BMI levels do not increase the risk for premature death as long as they are associated with high fitness. Thus, the paradoxically higher mortality risk observed with lower body weight as represented by lower BMI is likely the result of unhealthy reduction in body weight and, perhaps most importantly, considerable loss of lean body mass.

Statin therapy, fitness, and mortality risk in middle-aged hypertensive male veterans.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension often coexists with dyslipidemia, accentuating cardiovascular risk. Statins are often prescribed in hypertensive individuals to lower cardiovascular risk. Higher fitness is associated with lower mortality, but exercise capacity may be attenuated in hypertension. The combined effects of fitness and statin therapy in hypertensive individuals have not been assessed. Thus, we assessed the combined health benefits of fitness and statin therapy in hypertensive male subjects. METHODS: Peak exercise capacity was assessed in 10,202 hypertensive male subjects (mean age = 60.4 ± 10.6 years) in 2 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers. We established 4 fitness categories based on peak metabolic equivalents (METs) achieved and 8 categories based on fitness status and statin therapy. RESULTS: During the follow-up period (median = 10.2 years), there were 2,991 deaths. Mortality risk was 34% lower (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.66; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.59-0.74; P < 0.001) among individuals treated with statins compared with those not on statins. The fitness-related mortality risk association was inverse and graded regardless of statin therapy status. Risk reduction associated with exercise capacity of 5.1-8.4 METs was similar to that observed with statin therapy. However, those achieving ≥8.5 METs had 52% lower risk (HR = 0.48; 95% CI = 0.37-0.63) when compared with the least-fit subjects (≤5 METs) on statin therapy. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of statin therapy and higher fitness lowered mortality risk in hypertensive individuals more effectively than either alone. The risk reduction associated with moderate increases in fitness was similar to that achieved by statin therapy. Higher fitness was associated with 52% lower mortality risk when compared with the least fit subjects on statin therapy.

Heart rate at rest, exercise capacity, and mortality risk in veterans.

Heart rate (HR) at rest has been associated inversely with mortality risk. However, fitness is inversely associated with mortality risk and both increased fitness and ß-blockade therapy affect HR at rest. Thus, both fitness and ß-blockade therapy should be considered when HR at rest-mortality risk association is assessed. From 1986 to 2011, we assessed HR at rest, fitness, and mortality in 18,462 veterans (mean age = 58 ± 11 years) undergoing a stress test. During a median follow-up period of 10 years (211,398 person-years), 5,100 died, at an average annual mortality of 24.1 events/1,000 person-years. After adjusting for age, body mass index, cardiac risk factors, medication, and exercise capacity, we noted approximately 11% increase in risk for each 10 heart beats. To assess the risk in a wide and clinically relevant spectrum, we established 6 HR at rest categories per 10 heart beat intervals ranging from <60 to ≥100 beats. Mortality risk was significantly elevated at a HR at rest of ≥70 beats/min (hazard ratio 1.14, confidence interval 1.04 to 1.25; p <0.006) and increased progressively to 49% (hazard ratio 1.49, confidence interval 1.29 to 1.73; p <0.001) for those with a HR at rest of ≥100 beats/min. Similar trends were noted when for subjects aged <60 and ≥60 years and those treated with ß blockers. In all assessments, mortality risk was consistently overestimated when fitness was not considered. In conclusion, HR at rest-mortality risk association was direct and independent. A progressive increase in risk was noted >70 beats/min for the entire cohort, those treated with ß blockers, and those aged <60 and ≥60 years. Mortality risk was overestimated slightly when fitness status was not considered.

Exercise capacity and progression from prehypertension to hypertension.

Prehypertension is likely to progress to hypertension. The rate of progression is determined mostly by age and resting blood pressure but may also be attenuated by increased fitness. A graded exercise test was performed in 2303 men with prehypertension at the Veterans Affairs Medical Centers in Washington, DC. Four fitness categories were defined, based on peak metabolic equivalents (METs) achieved. We assessed the association between exercise capacity and rate of progression to hypertension (HTN). The median follow-up period was 7.8 years (mean (± SD) 9.2±6.1 years). The incidence rate of progression from prehypertension to hypertension was 34.4 per 1000 person-years. Exercise capacity was a strong and independent predictor of the rate of progression. Compared to the High-Fit individuals (>10.0 METs), the adjusted risk for developing HTN was 66% higher (hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.2; P=0.001) for the Low-Fit and, similarly, 72% higher (hazard ratio, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.3; P=0.001) for the Least-Fit individuals, whereas it was only 36% for the Moderate-Fit (hazard ratio, 1.36; 95% CI, 0.99 to 1.80; P=0.056). Significant predictors for the progression to HTN were also age (19% per 10 years), resting systolic blood pressure (16% per 10 mm Hg), body mass index (15.3% per 5 U), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (2-fold). In conclusion, an inverse, S-shaped association was shown between exercise capacity and the rate of progression from prehypertension to hypertension in middle-aged and older male veterans. The protective effects of fitness were evident when exercise capacity exceeded 8.5 METs. These findings emphasize the importance of fitness in the prevention of hypertension.

Heart rate recovery, exercise capacity, and mortality risk in male veterans.

BACKGROUND: Both impaired heart rate recovery (HRR) and low fitness are associated with higher mortality risk. In addition, HRR is influenced by fitness status. The interaction between HRR, mortality, and fitness has not been clearly defined. Thus, we sought to evaluate the association between HRR and all-cause mortality and to assess the effects of fitness on this association. METHODS: Treadmill exercise testing was performed in 5974 male veterans for clinical reasons at two Veterans Affairs Medical Centers (Washington, DC and Palo Alto, CA). HRR was calculated at 1 and 2 min of recovery. All-cause mortality was determined over a mean 6.2-year follow-up period. RESULTS: Mortality risk was significantly and inversely associated with HRR, only at 2 min. A cut-off value of 14 beats/min at 2 min recovery was the strongest predictor of mortality for the cohort (hazard ratio = 2.4; CI 1.6-3.5). The mortality risk was overestimated when exercise capacity was not considered. When both low fitness and low HRR were present (≤6 metabolic equivalents and ≤14 beats/min), mortality risk was approximately seven-fold higher compared to the High-fit + High-HRR group (>6 metabolic equivalents and >14 beats/min). CONCLUSIONS: HRR at 2 min post exercise is strongly and inversely associated with all-cause mortality. Exercise capacity affects HRR-associated mortality substantially and should be considered when applying HRR to estimate mortality.

Exercise capacity and mortality in older men: a 20-year follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological findings, based largely on middle-aged populations, support an inverse and independent association between exercise capacity and mortality risk. The information available in older individuals is limited. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between 1986 and 2008, we assessed the association between exercise capacity and all-cause mortality in 5314 male veterans aged 65 to 92 years (mean+/-SD, 71.4+/-5.0 years) who completed an exercise test at the Veterans Affairs Medical Centers in Washington, DC, and Palo Alto, Calif. We established fitness categories based on peak metabolic equivalents (METs) achieved. During a median 8.1 years of follow-up (range, 0.1 to 25.3), there were 2137 deaths. Baseline exercise capacity was 6.3+/-2.4 METs among survivors and 5.3+/-2.0 METs in those who died (P<0.001) and emerged as a strong predictor of mortality. For each 1-MET increase in exercise capacity, the adjusted hazard for death was 12% lower (hazard ratio=0.88; confidence interval, 0.86 to 0.90). Compared with the least fit individuals (< or =4 METs), the mortality risk was 38% lower for those who achieved 5.1 to 6.0 METs (hazard ratio=0.62; confidence interval, 0.54 to 0.71) and progressively declined to 61% (hazard ratio=0.39; confidence interval, 0.32 to 0.49) for those who achieved >9 METs, regardless of age. Unfit individuals who improved their fitness status with serial testing had a 35% lower mortality risk (hazard ratio=0.65; confidence interval, 0.46 to 0.93) compared with those who remained unfit. CONCLUSIONS: Exercise capacity is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in older men. The relationship is inverse and graded, with most survival benefits achieved in those with an exercise capacity >5 METs. Survival improved significantly when unfit individuals became fit.

A graded association of exercise capacity and all-cause mortality in males with high-normal blood pressure.

INTRODUCTION: Information regarding the effect of exercise capacity on mortality risk in individuals with high-normal blood pressure is severely limited. Thus, we evaluated the association of exercise capacity and all-cause mortality in individuals with high-normal blood pressure. METHODS: Exercise test was performed in 1727 males with high-normal blood pressure at two Veteran sites (Washington, DC, and Palo Alto, CA). Fitness status was assessed in metabolic equivalents (METs) at exercise peak. All-cause mortality was recorded for a mean follow-up period of 9.8+/-6.0 years. RESULTS: Exercise capacity was inversely associated with all-cause mortality, and the association was independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. For each 1 MET increase in exercise capacity, the adjusted mortality risk was reduced by 13%, underscoring the strong predictive value of exercise capacity that was confirmed by ROC analysis. Data analysis according to fitness levels revealed a threshold level of 4 METs, over which the mortality risk was progressively reduced by 30% (hazard ratio=0.70; CI 0.51-0.95) for those who achieved 4.1-6.0 METs and 61% (hazard ratio=0.39; CI 0.26-0.57) for those who achieved 8.1-10 METs. No additional reductions in risk were noted until the MET level achieved exceeded 12 METs. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a strong, inverse, graded and independent association between exercise capacity and all-cause mortality in individuals with high-normal blood pressure. Our findings indicate that a shift of the fitness curve to the right is associated with significant survival benefits, and even slight differences in fitness levels are associated with substantial reductions in mortality risk.

Exercise capacity and all-cause mortality in prehypertensive men.

BACKGROUND: Prehypertension is associated with increased risk for mortality, a fact that generated a debate regarding the use of antihypertensive therapy in prehypertensives. Increased exercise capacity is associated with lower mortality risk, but little is known about its effects in prehypertensives. Thus, we evaluated the association between exercise capacity and all-cause mortality in prehypertensives. METHODS: A graded exercise test was performed in 4,478 prehypertensive men at the Veterans Affairs Medical Centers in Washington, DC and Palo Alto, CA. Four fitness categories (quartiles) were defined based on peak metabolic equivalents (METs) achieved. All-cause mortality was assessed for both younger (10 METs). The trends were similar but more pronounced among younger than older individuals. CONCLUSIONS: A strong, inverse and graded association between exercise capacity and all-cause mortality was observed in prehypertensive individuals. The protective effects of increased fitness were more pronounced in younger than older individuals, suggesting that age should be more closely considered when assessing fitness and mortality relationships.

Exercise capacity and mortality in black and white men.

BACKGROUND: Exercise capacity is inversely related to mortality risk in healthy individuals and those with cardiovascular diseases. This evidence is based largely on white populations, with little information available for blacks. METHODS AND RESULTS: We assessed the association between exercise capacity and mortality in black (n=6749; age, 58+/-11 years) and white (n=8911; age, 60+/-11 years) male veterans with and without cardiovascular disease who successfully completed a treadmill exercise test at the Veterans Affairs Medical Centers in Washington, DC, and Palo Alto, Calif. Fitness categories were based on peak metabolic equivalents (METs) achieved. Subjects were followed up for all-cause mortality for 7.5+/-5.3 years. Among clinical and exercise test variables, exercise capacity was the strongest predictor of risk for mortality. The adjusted risk was reduced by 13% for every 1-MET increase in exercise capacity (hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 0.88; P<0.001). Compared with those who achieved <5 METs, the mortality risk was approximately 50% lower for those with an exercise capacity of 7.1 to 10 METs (hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.47 to 0.56; P<0.001) and 70% lower for those achieving >10 METs (hazard ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.26 to 0.36; P<0.001). The findings were similar for those with and without cardiovascular disease and for both races. CONCLUSIONS: Exercise capacity is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality in blacks and whites. The relationship was inverse and graded, with a similar impact on mortality outcomes for both blacks and whites.