Frailty Assessment Can Enhance Current Risk Prediction Tools in Emergency Laparotomy: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: We set out to assess the performance of the P-POSSUM and NELA risk prediction tool (NELA RPT), and hypothesized that combining them with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) would significantly improve their performance. Emergency laparotomy (EL) is a high-risk surgical intervention, particularly for elderly patients with marked comorbidities and frailty. Accurate risk prediction is crucial for appropriate resource allocation, clinical decision making, and informed consent. Although patient frailty is a significant risk factor, the current risk prediction tools fail to take frailty into account. METHODS: In this retrospective single-center cohort study, we analyzed all cases entered into the NELA database from the Oxford University Hospitals between 01.01.2018 and 15.06.2021. We analyzed the performance of the P-POSSUM and NELA RPT. Both tools were modified by adding the CFS to the model. RESULTS: The discrimination of both the P-POSSUM and NELA RPT was good, with a slightly worse performance in the elderly. Adding CFS into the P-POSSUM and NELA RPT models improved both tools in the elderly [AUC from 0.775 to 0.846 (p < 0.05) from 0.814 to 0.864 (p < 0.05), respectively]. The improvement of the NELA RPT across all age groups did not reach statistical significance. The CFS grade was associated with 30-day mortality in patients aged > 65 years. However, in younger patients, this effect was less marked than in the elderly. CONCLUSION: Our analysis demonstrated a significant improvement in the P-POSSUM and NELA risk models when combined with the CFS. Frailty also increases the 30-day mortality after EL in younger individuals.

Isolated greater trochanter fracture may impose a comparable risk on older patients' survival as a conventional hip fracture: a population-wide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Isolated greater trochanter fracture (IGT) and conventional hip fracture (HF) affect the same anatomical area but are usually researched separately. HF is associated with high mortality, and its management is well established. In contrast, IGT's effect on mortality is unknown, and its best management strategies are unclear. This study aims to compare these patient populations, their acute- and post-acute care, physical and occupational therapy use, and up to three-year mortality. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study is based on population-wide data of Estonia, where routine IGT management is non-operative and includes immediate weight-bearing as tolerated. The study included patients aged ≥ 50 years with a validated index HF or IGT diagnosis between 2009-2017. The fracture populations' acute- and post-acute care, one-year physical and occupational therapy use and three-year mortality were compared. RESULTS: A total of 0.4% (50/11,541) of included patients had an IGT. The baseline characteristics of the fracture cohorts showed a close resemblance, but the IGT patients received substantially less care. Adjusted analyses showed that the IGT patients' acute care was 4.5 days [3.4; 5.3] shorter they had 39.2 percentage points [25.5; 52.8] lower probability for receiving post-acute care, and they had 50 percentage points [5.5: 36]] lower probability for receiving physical and occupational therapy. The IGT and HF patients' mortality rates were comparable, being 4% and 9% for one month, 28% and 31% for one year, and 46% and 49% for three years, respectively. Crude and adjusted analyses could not find significant differences in their three-year mortality, showing a p-value of 0.6 and a hazard ratio of 0.9 [0.6; 1.3] for the IGT patients, retrospectively. CONCLUSIONS: Despite IGT being a relatively minor injury, the evidence from this study suggests that it may impose a comparable risk on older patients' survival, as does HF due to the close resemblance of the two fracture populations. Therefore, IGT in older patients may signify an underlying need for broad-based medical attention, ensuring need-based, ongoing, coordinated care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Retrospectively registered.

Comparative Analysis of Gut Microbiota in Centenarians and Young People: Impact of Eating Habits and Childhood Living Environment.

The composition of centenarians' gut microbiota has consistently been used as a model for healthy aging studies. However, there is an incomplete understanding of how childhood living conditions and eating habits affect the development and composition of gastrointestinal microbiota in centenarians with good cognitive functions. We compared the gut microbiota as well as the living and eating habits of the oldest-old group and the young people group. The richness and diversity of microbiota and the abundance of hereditary and environmental microbes were higher in people with longevity than young people. People with longevity ate more potatoes and cereal products. In their childhood, they had more exposure to farm animals and did not have sewers compared with young people. Young people's gut microbiota contained more butyrate-producing bacteria and bacteria that characterized an animal-based Western diet. These results expand our understanding of the effects of childhood environment and diet on the development and stability of the microbiota in people with longevity.

Simple Excel and ICD-10 based dataset calculator for the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices.

BACKGROUND: The Charlson and Elixhauser Comorbidity Indices are the most widely used comorbidity assessment methods in medical research. Both methods are adapted for use with the International Classification of Diseases, which 10th revision (ICD-10) is used by over a hundred countries in the world. Available Charlson and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index calculating methods are limited to a few applications with command-line user interfaces, all requiring specific programming language skills. This study aims to use Microsoft Excel to develop a non-programming and ICD-10 based dataset calculator for Charlson and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index and to validate its results with R- and SAS-based methods. METHODS: The Excel-based dataset calculator was developed using the program's formulae, ICD-10 coding algorithms, and different weights of the Charlson and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index. Real, population-wide, nine-year spanning, index hip fracture data from the Estonian Health Insurance Fund was used for validating the calculator. The Excel-based calculator's output values and processing speed were compared to R- and SAS-based methods. RESULTS: A total of 11,491 hip fracture patients' comorbidities were used for validating the Excel-based calculator. The Excel-based calculator's results were consistent, revealing no discrepancies, with R- and SAS-based methods while comparing 192,690 and 353,265 output values of Charlson and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, respectively. The Excel-based calculator's processing speed was slower but differing only from a few seconds up to four minutes with datasets including 6250-200,000 patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study proposes a novel, validated, and non-programming-based method for calculating Charlson and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index scores. As the comorbidity calculations can be conducted in Microsoft Excel's simple graphical point-and-click interface, the new method lowers the threshold for calculating these two widely used indices. TRIAL REGISTRATION: retrospectively registered.

Causal variation modelling identifies large inter- and intra-regional disparities in physical therapy offered to hip fracture patients in Estonia.

PURPOSE: An essential measure of hip fracture (HF) rehabilitation, the amount of physical therapy (PT) used per patient, has been severely understudied. This study (1) evaluates post-acute PT use after HF in Estonia, (2) presents causal variation modelling for examining inter- and intra-regional disparities, and (3) analyses its temporal trends. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used validated population-wide health data, including patients aged ≥50 years, with an index HF diagnosed between January 2009 and September 2017. Patients' 6-month PT use was analysed and reported separately for acute and post-acute phases. RESULTS: While most of the included 11,461 patients received acute rehabilitation, only 40% of them received post-acute PT by a median of 6 h. Analyses based on measures of central tendency revealed 2.5 to 2.6-fold inter-regional differences in HF post-acute rehabilitation. Variation modelling additionally detected intra-regional disparities, showing imbalances in the fairness of allocating local rehabilitation resources between a county's patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the advantages of causal variation modelling for identifying inter- and intra-regional disparities in rehabilitation. The analyses revealed persisting large multi-level disparities and accompanying overall inaccessibility of PT in HF rehabilitation in Estonia, showing an urgent need for system-wide improvements.Implications for rehabilitationThis study demonstrates the advantages of causal variation modelling for identifying inter- and intra-regional disparities in rehabilitation, using an essential outcome measure - used physical therapy hours.The study revealed large multi-level disparities and overall inaccessibility of physical therapy in hip fracture rehabilitation in Estonia, showing an urgent need for system-wide improvements.This study expands our knowledge on unstudied topics - hip fracture post-acute care and long-term physical therapy use.This regional analysis provides the first evidence-based regional-level basis for improving the rehabilitation system in Estonia.

Nonoperative hip fracture management practices and patient survival compared to surgical care: an analysis of Estonian population-wide data.

A notable proportion of hip fracture patients receive nonoperative management, but such practice is seldom analysed. Although highly variable reasons underpin hip fracture nonoperative management, none of these practices conclusively outweigh the superiority of operative management. Nonoperative management should be only considered when surgery is not an option. PURPOSE: Reasons underpinning hip fracture (HF) nonoperative management (NOM) are seldom analysed. This study aims to identify the reasons behind NOM and assess the accuracy of these decisions using these patients' survival compared with those treated with operative management (OM). METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study based on population-wide administrative health data, including patients aged ≥ 50 with an index HF diagnosis between January 2009 and September 2017. NOM patients were subgrouped according to their expected prognoses, and their survival up to 36 months was compared with those treated surgically. RESULTS: From a total of 11,210 included patients, 6.8% (766) received NOM. Varying reasons lead to NOM, dividing them further into five distinct subgroups: (I) 46% NOM decision due to poor expected prognosis with OM; (II) 29% NOM decision due to poor expected prognosis for mixed reasons; (III) 15% NOM decision due to good expected prognosis with NOM; (IV) 8.0% NOM decision due to patient's refusal of OM; and (V) 1.3% NOM decision due to occult HF. Only poor prognosis and patients who refused OM (I, II, IV) had worse survival than OM patients. However, a relatively high proportion of the poor prognosis patients survived 1 year (29%). CONCLUSION: Although there was high variability in reasons underpinning HF NOM, none of these practices conclusively outweigh OM's superiority. NOM should be considered with utmost care and only for patients for whom OM is out of the question - well-defined medical unfitness or carefully considered refusal by understanding the increased mortality risk.

High variability in hip fracture post-acute care and dementia patients having worse chances of receiving rehabilitation: an analysis of population-based data from Estonia.

PURPOSE: Rehabilitation is a fundamental part of hip fracture (HF) care; however, the best strategies are unclear. This study maps index HF patients' post-acute care (PAC) in Estonia and compares the PAC of patients with and without a diagnosis of dementia. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using validated population-based data from the Estonian Health Insurance Fund using inclusion criteria: age ≥ 50 years, International Classification of Diseases code (S72.0-2) indicating HF between 1 January 2009 and 30 September 2017, and the survival of PAC. The presence of dementia diagnosis was based on the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases codes. RESULTS: A total of 8729 patients were included in the study, 11% of whom had a dementia diagnosis. The PAC of HF patients varied from extensive to no care: 8.7% received combined inpatient and outpatient care; 59% received hospital care (13% had a length of stay (LOS) > 6 weeks; 33% had LOS between 2-4 weeks, 14% had LOS < 2 weeks); 4% received only community-based care; 28% received no PAC. Physical therapy (PT) was received by 56% of patients and by 35% of those with dementia diagnosis. Dementia patients had 1.5-fold higher odds of not receiving PT. CONCLUSION: In Estonia, the PAC after index HF varies from extensive to no care, and the provision of PT is limited and unequal, affecting dementia patients in particular. Thus, there is an urgent need to standardise index HF PAC by reviewing the resources of PT and developing effective rehabilitation practices.

Estonian hip fracture data from 2009 to 2017: high rates of non-operative management and high 1-year mortality.

Background and purpose - There are no national guidelines for treatment of hip fractures in Estonia and no studies on management. We assessed treatment methods and mortality rates for hip fracture patients in Estonia. Patients and methods - We studied a population-based retrospective cohort using validated data from the Estonian Health Insurance Fund's database. The cohort included patients aged 50 and over with an index hip fracture diagnosis between January 1, 2009 and September 30, 2017. The study generated descriptive statistics of hip fracture management methods and calculated in-hospital, 1-, 3, 6-, and 12-month unadjusted all-cause mortality rates. [CrossRef] Results - 91% (number of hips: 11,628/12,731) of the original data were included after data validation. Median patient age was 81 years, 83 years for women and 74 years for men. 28% were men. Treatment methods were: total hip arthroplasty 7%; hemiarthroplasty 25%; screws 6%; sliding hip screw 25%; intramedullary nail 27%; and nonoperative management 10%. Unadjusted all-cause mortality rates for in-hospital, 1, 3, 6, and 12 months were: 3%, 9%, 18%, 24%, and 31% respectively. The 12-month mortality rate for nonoperative management was 58%. [CrossRef] Interpretation - High rates of nonoperative management and overall high 1-year mortality rates after an index hip fracture indicate the need to review exclusion criteria for surgery and subacute care in Estonia.

Higher blood glucose level associated with body mass index and gut microbiota in elderly people.

BACKGROUND: Some dominant bacterial divisions of the intestines have been linked to metabolic diseases such as overweight and diabetes. OBJECTIVE: A pilot study aimed to evaluate the relations between the culturable intestinal bacteria with body mass index (BMI) and some principal cellular and metabolic markers of blood in people older than 65. DESIGN: Altogether 38 generally healthy elderly people were recruited: ambulatory (n=19) and orthopedic surgery (n=19). Questionnaires on general health, anthropometric measurements, routine clinical and laboratory data, and quantitative composition of cultivable gut microbiota were performed. RESULTS: Blood glucose level was positively correlated with BMI (r=0.402; p=0.014). Higher blood glucose level had negative correlation with relative share of intestinal anaerobic bacteria such as bacteroides (r=-0.434; p=0.0076) and gram-positive anaerobic cocci (r=-0.364; p=0.027). In contrast, the relative share of bifidobacteria (r=0.383; p=0.019) and staphylococci (r=0.433; p=0.008) was positively correlated to blood glucose level. In elderly people, a higher blood glucose concentration was predicted by the reduction of the anaerobes' proportion (adj. sex, age, and BMI R(2)=0.192, p=0.028) and that of Bacteroides sp. (adj. R(2)=0.309, p=0.016). CONCLUSION: A tight interplay between increased BMI, level of blood glucose, and the reduced proportion of cultivable bacteroides is taking place in the gut microbiota of elderly people.

Diversity and metabolic impact of intestinal Lactobacillus species in healthy adults and the elderly.

The present study aimed at assessing the counts and species distribution of intestinal lactobacilli and exploring if the data are associated with BMI and blood glucose level in healthy adults and elderly persons. The BMI (P < 0·01), the level of fasting blood glucose (P < 0·001) and the total counts of lactobacilli (P < 0·01 by bacteriology; P < 0·001 by real-time PCR) were higher in the elderly. The number of species in adults was lower (P < 0·05), who were more often colonised with Lactobacillus acidophilus (P = 0·031) and L. helveticus (P < 0·001). In contrast, L. plantarum (P = 0·035), L. paracasei (P < 0·001) and L. reuteri (P = 0·031) were more prevalent in the elderly. L. rhamnosus was detected in adults (P < 0·001), but not in any elderly person. BMI was associated with counts of lactobacilli, adjusted for age and sex (P = 0·008). The higher BMI in both groups of persons was associated with the presence of obligate homofermentative lactobacilli and L. sakei, both adjusted for age and sex. Plasma glucose values were positively correlated with BMI and negatively correlated with colonisation with L. paracasei (P = 0·0238) in adults and on the borderline with L. fermentum (P = 0·052) in the elderly. Thus, the species-specific PCR analysis of Lactobacillus sp. combined with viable plating data indicates substantial age-related structural differences in the intestinal lactobacilli communities. The higher counts of intestinal Lactobacillus sp. are associated with higher BMI and blood glucose content, while their specific fermentative groups and species of lactobacilli appear at different glucose levels both in adults and in the elderly.

Intestinal Lactobacillus sp. is associated with some cellular and metabolic characteristics of blood in elderly people.

The higher counts or particular groups (Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes) of intestinal microbiota are related to host metabolic reactions, supporting a balance of human ecosystem. We further explored whether intestinal lactobacilli were associated with some principal cellular and metabolic markers of blood in 38 healthy >65-year-old persons. The questionnaire, routine clinical and laboratory data of blood indices as much as the oxidized low-density lipoprotein (ox-LDL) and baseline diene conjugates in low-density lipoprotein (BDC-LDL) of blood sera were explored. The PCR-based intestinal Lactobacillus sp. composition and counts of cultivable lactobacilli (LAB) were tested. The facultative heterofermentative lactobacilli (Lactobacillus casei and Lactobacillus paracasei) were the most frequent (89 and 97%, respectively) species found, while Lactobacillus acidophilus, Lactobacillus plantarum and Lactobacillus reuteri were present in almost half of the elderly persons. The number of species simultaneously colonizing the individuals ranged from 1 to 7 (median 4). In elderly consuming probiotics the LAB counts were significantly higher than in these not consuming (median 7.8, range 4.2-10.8 vs. median 6.3, range 3.3-9.7 log cfu/g; p=0.005), adjusted (OR=1.71, CI95 1.04-2.82; p=0.035) for age and body mass index (BMI). The colonization by L. acidophilus was negatively related (r=-0.367, p=0.0275) to L. reuteri, staying significant after adjusting for age, sex and BMI (OR=0.16, CI95 0.04-0.73; p=0.018). However, the blood glucose concentration showed a tendency for a negative correlation for colonization with Lactobacillus fermentum (r=-0.309, p=0.062) adjusted for BMI (Adj. R(2)=0.181; p=0.013) but not for age and sex. The higher white blood cells (WBC) count was positively related (r=0.434, p=0.007) to presence of Lactobacillus reuteri adjusted for age, sex and BMI (Adj. R(2)=0.193, p=0.027). The lower values of ox-LDL were predicted by higher counts of cultivable lactobacilli adjusted by sex, age and BMI (r = -0.389, p = 0.016; Adj. R(2)=0.184 p=0.029). In conclusion, the pilot study of elderly persons shows that the intestinal lactobacilli are tightly associated with WBC count, blood glucose and content of ox-LDL which all serve as risk markers in pathogenesis of inflammation, metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Evaluation of symptom presentation in dyspeptic patients referred for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy in Estonia.

AIM: To investigate the structure of dyspeptic symptoms and determine the association between dyspeptic symptoms and endoscopic findings in patients referred for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy by family physicians in a country with a high prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection. METHODS: Consecutive outpatients (n=172; median 36 years, range 18-75; 85 male; 87 female) were referred to upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Patient history was recorded prior to upper gastrointestinal endoscopy using the computer-aided Glasgow Diagnostic System for Dyspepsia (GLADYS). Family physicians used open access endoscopy with a short waiting list. Two biopsies, both from the antrum and the corpus, were taken for histological assessment. RESULTS: Out of the 172 patients studied, 81% (n=139) were H. pylori positive, 65% (n=112) were younger than 45 years. The incidence of peptic ulcer was 44% (n=75). Upper abdominal pain was the predominant complaint in 73% (n=126) of the patients, as well as the most frequent overall complaint. Hunger pain, night pain, periodical nature of symptoms, and history over 2 years were of independent value in differentiating between peptic ulcer and functional dyspepsia. The symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease and irritable bowel syndrome predominated in the minority of patients (11% and 5% respectively) but accompanied other complaints in almost 2/3 of the patients. In 32 out of 75 patients with peptic ulcer, the symptoms of irritable bowel syndrome and in 29 cases the presence of frequent heartburn and regurgitation were noted. CONCLUSIONS: Classical symptoms are valuable in predicting the diagnosis of peptic ulcer. Heartburn and acid regurgitation are present in both gastroesophageal reflux disease and peptic ulcer. Irritable bowel syndrome is common in patients with peptic ulcer.

The diagnostic value of endoscopy and Helicobacter pylori tests for peptic ulcer patients in late post-treatment setting.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for management of peptic ulcer patients after the treatment are largely directed to detection of H. pylori infection using only non-invasive tests. We compared the diagnostic value of non-invasive and endoscopy based H. pylori tests in a late post-treatment setting. METHODS: Altogether 34 patients with dyspeptic complaints were referred for gastroscopy 5 years after the treatment of peptic ulcer using a one-week triple therapy scheme. The endoscopic and histologic findings were evaluated according to the Sydney classification. Bacteriological, PCR and cytological investigations and 13C-UBT tests were performed. RESULTS: Seventeen patients were defined H. pylori positive by 13C-UBT test, PCR and histological examination. On endoscopy, peptic ulcer persisted in 4 H. pylori positive cases. Among the 6 cases with erosions of the gastric mucosa, only two patients were H. pylori positive. Mucosal atrophy and intestinal metaplasia were revealed both in the H. pylori positive and H. pylori negative cases. Bacteriological examination revealed three clarithromycin resistant H. pylori strains. Cytology failed to prove validity for diagnosing H. pylori in a post-treatment setting. CONCLUSIONS: In a late post-treatment setting, patients with dyspepsia should not be monitored only by non-invasive investigation methods; it is also justified to use the classical histological evaluation of H. pylori colonisation, PCR and bacteriology as they have shown good concordance with 13C-UBT. Moreover, endoscopy and histological investigation of a gastric biopsy have proved to be the methods with an additional diagnostic value, providing the physician with information about inflammatory, atrophic and metaplastic lesions of the stomach in dyspeptic H. pylori positive and negative patients. Bacteriological methods are suggested for detecting the putative antimicrobial resistance of H. pylori, aimed at successful eradication of infection in persistent peptic ulcer cases.

Prevalence of cardiovascular disorders among the elderly in primary care in Estonia.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of diagnoses of cardiovascular disorders among the elderly in family practice. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Estonia, population aged 65 years or older (206,915 persons). SUBJECTS: 811 elderly persons selected randomly from the lists of family practitioners. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of hypertension, hypotension, coronary heart disease (CHD), myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF) and cardiac arrhythmias; differences between the genders and age groups. RESULTS: The prevalence of cardiovascular disorders was as follows: hypertension 63.2%, hypotension 11.1%, CHD 56.5%, MI 9.8%, HF 41.4% and arrhythmias 37.5%. Women had a significantly higher prevalence of hypertension and men of MI. The prevalence of CHD and hypotension was significantly higher in the oldest elderly persons. CONCLUSION: Among the older population in Estonia, cardiovascular disorders that have broader diagnostic criteria and need expensive methods for verifying (CHD, HF) have a high prevalence and are most likely over-diagnosed. The need for strict and simple diagnostic methods for these disorders in primary care practice continues to be serious.

Open access endoscopy in an epidemiological situation of high prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection: applicability of the guidelines of the European Society for Primary Care Gastroenterology.

BACKGROUND: Dyspepsia is a common syndrome and provides primary care physicians with a significant workload. To optimize the management of dyspepsia, several guidelines have been developed. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of upper gastrointestinal diseases and their relationship to Helicobacter pylori infection in dyspeptic patients referred for upper endoscopy by family physicians, as well as to assess the applicability of the guidelines of the European Society for Primary Care Gastroenterology (ESPCG). METHODS: A total of 168 unselected dyspeptic out-patients (mean age 38 years, range 18-75), 88 male and 80 female, were included. Two biopsies from the antrum and two from the corpus were taken for histological assessment, and one from the antrum and one from the corpus were taken for culture. RESULTS: Half of the patients had clinically significant findings at endoscopy: peptic ulcer which occurred in 35% of the patients under the age of 30 years, in 45% of the patients in the age group 30-44 years and in 36% of the patients over 45 years of age. The prevalence of H. pylori infection in these age groups was 67, 87 and 89%, respectively. Duodenal ulcer was 12 times more common than gastric ulcer. CONCLUSIONS: The overall incidence of upper gastrointestinal disease, especially among young dyspeptic patients, was high compared with that observed in Western countries. The characteristics of dyspeptic patients, consulted in primary care, should be used for adaptation of the ESPCG guidelines to local needs.