Law of mass action and saturation in SIR model with application to Coronavirus modelling.

When using SIR and related models, it is common to assume that the infection rate is proportional to the product of susceptible and infected individuals. While this assumption works at the onset of the outbreak, the infection force saturates as the outbreak progresses, even in the absence of any interventions. We use a simple agent-based model to illustrate this saturation effect. Its continuum limit leads a modified SIR model with exponential saturation. The derivation is based on first principles incorporating the spread radius and population density. We use the data for coronavirus outbreak for the period from March to June, to show that using SIR model with saturation is sufficient to capture the disease dynamics for many jurstictions, including the overall world-wide disease curve progression. Our model suggests the R 0 value of above 8 at the onset of infection, but with infection quickly "flattening out", leading to a long-term sustained sub-exponential spread.

Localized outbreaks in an S-I-R model with diffusion.

We investigate an SIRS epidemic model with spatial diffusion and nonlinear incidence rates. We show that for small diffusion rate of the infected class [Formula: see text], the infected population tends to be highly localized at certain points inside the domain, forming K spikes. We then study three distinct destabilization mechanisms, as well as a transition from localized spikes to plateau solutions. Two of the instabilities are due to coarsening (spike death) and self-replication (spike birth), and have well-known analogues in other reaction-diffusion systems such as the Schnakenberg model. The third transition is when a single spike becomes unstable and moves to the boundary. This happens when the diffusion of the recovered class, [Formula: see text] becomes sufficiently small. In all cases, the stability thresholds are computed asymptotically and are verified by numerical experiments. We also show that the spike solution can transit into an plateau-type solution when the diffusion rates of recovered and susceptible class are sufficiently small. Implications for disease spread and control through quarantine are discussed.

Stabilizing a homoclinic stripe.

For a large class of reaction-diffusion systems with large diffusivity ratio, it is well known that a two-dimensional stripe (whose cross-section is a one-dimensional homoclinic spike) is unstable and breaks up into spots. Here, we study two effects that can stabilize such a homoclinic stripe. First, we consider the addition of anisotropy to the model. For the Schnakenberg model, we show that (an infinite) stripe can be stabilized if the fast-diffusing variable (substrate) is sufficiently anisotropic. Two types of instability thresholds are derived: zigzag (or bending) and break-up instabilities. The instability boundaries subdivide parameter space into three distinct zones: stable stripe, unstable stripe due to bending and unstable due to break-up instability. Numerical experiments indicate that the break-up instability is supercritical leading to a 'spotted-stripe' solution. Finally, we perform a similar analysis for the Klausmeier model of vegetation patterns on a steep hill, and examine transition from spots to stripes.This article is part of the theme issue 'Dissipative structures in matter out of equilibrium: from chemistry, photonics and biology (part 2)'.

Ring states in swarmalator systems.

Synchronization is a universal phenomenon, occurring in systems as disparate as Japanese tree frogs and Josephson junctions. Typically, the elements of synchronizing systems adjust the phases of their oscillations, but not their positions in space. The reverse scenario is found in swarming systems, such as schools of fish or flocks of birds; now the elements adjust their positions in space, but without (noticeably) changing their internal states. Systems capable of both swarming and synchronizing, dubbed swarmalators, have recently been proposed, and analyzed in the continuum limit. Here, we extend this work by studying finite populations of swarmalators, whose phase similarity affects both their spatial attraction and repulsion. We find ring states, and compute criteria for their existence and stability. Larger populations can form annular distributions, whose density we calculate explicitly. These states may be observable in groups of Japanese tree frogs, ferromagnetic colloids, and other systems with an interplay between swarming and synchronization.

Multi-vortex crystal lattices in Bose-Einstein condensates with a rotating trap.

We consider vortex dynamics in the context of Bose-Einstein condensates (BECs) with a rotating trap, with or without anisotropy. Starting with the Gross-Pitaevskii (GP) partial differential equation (PDE), we derive a novel reduced system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that describes stable configurations of multiple co-rotating vortices (vortex crystals). This description is found to be quite accurate quantitatively especially in the case of multiple vortices. In the limit of many vortices, BECs are known to form vortex crystal structures, whereby vortices tend to arrange themselves in a hexagonal-like spatial configuration. Using our asymptotic reduction, we derive the effective vortex crystal density and its radius. We also obtain an asymptotic estimate for the maximum number of vortices as a function of rotation rate. We extend considerations to the anisotropic trap case, confirming that a pair of vortices lying on the long (short) axis is linearly stable (unstable), corroborating the ODE reduction results with full PDE simulations. We then further investigate the many-vortex limit in the case of strong anisotropic potential. In this limit, the vortices tend to align themselves along the long axis, and we compute the effective one-dimensional vortex density, as well as the maximum admissible number of vortices. Detailed numerical simulations of the GP equation are used to confirm our analytical predictions.

A minimal model of predator-swarm interactions.

We propose a minimal model of predator-swarm interactions which captures many of the essential dynamics observed in nature. Different outcomes are observed depending on the predator strength. For a 'weak' predator, the swarm is able to escape the predator completely. As the strength is increased, the predator is able to catch up with the swarm as a whole, but the individual prey is able to escape by 'confusing' the predator: the prey forms a ring with the predator at the centre. For higher predator strength, complex chasing dynamics are observed which can become chaotic. For even higher strength, the predator is able to successfully capture the prey. Our model is simple enough to be amenable to a full mathematical analysis, which is used to predict the shape of the swarm as well as the resulting predator-prey dynamics as a function of model parameters. We show that, as the predator strength is increased, there is a transition (owing to a Hopf bifurcation) from confusion state to chasing dynamics, and we compute the threshold analytically. Our analysis indicates that the swarming behaviour is not helpful in avoiding the predator, suggesting that there are other reasons why the species may swarm. The complex shape of the swarm in our model during the chasing dynamics is similar to the shape of a flock of sheep avoiding a shepherd.

First-passage times, mobile traps, and Hopf bifurcations.

For a random walk on a confined one-dimensional domain, we consider mean first-passage times (MFPT) in the presence of a mobile trap. The question we address is whether a mobile trap can improve capture times over a stationary trap. We consider two scenarios: a randomly moving trap and an oscillating trap. In both cases, we find that a stationary trap actually performs better (in terms of reducing expected capture time) than a very slowly moving trap; however, a trap moving sufficiently fast performs better than a stationary trap. We explicitly compute the thresholds that separate the two regimes. In addition, we find a surprising relation between the oscillating trap problem and a moving-sink problem that describes reduced dynamics of a single spike in a certain regime of the Gray-Scott model. Namely, the above-mentioned threshold corresponds precisely to a Hopf bifurcation that induces oscillatory motion in the location of the spike. We use this correspondence to prove the uniqueness of the Hopf bifurcation.

Stability of ring patterns arising from two-dimensional particle interactions.

Pairwise particle interactions arise in diverse physical systems ranging from insect swarms to self-assembly of nanoparticles. In the presence of long-range attraction and short-range repulsion, such systems can exhibit bound states. We use linear stability analysis of a ring equilibrium to classify the morphology of patterns in two dimensions. Conditions are identified that assure the well-posedness of the ring. In addition, weakly nonlinear theory and numerical simulations demonstrate how a ring can bifurcate to more complex equilibria including triangular shapes, annuli, and spot patterns with N-fold symmetry. Many of these patterns have been observed in nature, although a general theory has been lacking, in particular how small changes to the interaction potential can lead to large changes in the self-organized state.

Phytoplankton depth profiles and their transitions near the critical sinking velocity.

We consider a simple phytoplankton model introduced by Shigesada and Okubo which incorporates the sinking and self-shading effect of the phytoplankton. The amount of light the phytoplankton receives is assumed to be controlled by the density of the phytoplankton population above the given depth. We show the existence of non-homogeneous solutions for any water depth and study their profiles and stability. Depending on the sinking rate of the phytoplankton, light intensity and water depth, the plankton can concentrate either near the surface, at the bottom of the water column, or both, resulting in a "double-peak" profile. As the buoyancy passes a certain critical threshold, a sudden change in the phytoplankton profile occurs. We quantify this transition using asymptotic techniques. In all cases we show that the profile is locally stable. This generalizes the results of Shigesada and Okubo where infinite depth was considered.

Introduction: dissipative localized structures in extended systems.

Localized structures belong to the class of dissipative structures found far from equilibrium. Contributions from the most representative groups working on a various fields of natural science such as biology, chemistry, plant ecology, mathematics, optics, and laser physics are presented. The aim of this issue is to gather specialists from these fields towards a cross-fertilization among these active areas of research and thereby to present an overview of the state of art in the formation and the characterization of dissipative localized structures. Nonlinear optics and laser physics have an important part in this issue because of potential applications in information technology. In particular, localized structures could be used as "bits" for parallel information storage and processing.

Spot deformation and replication in the two-dimensional Belousov-Zhabotinski reaction in a water-in-oil microemulsion.

In the limit of a large duffusivity ratio, spotlike solutions in the two-dimensional Belousov-Zhabotinski reaction in water-in-oil microemulsion are studied. It is shown analytically that such spots undergo an instability as the diffusivity ratio is decreased. An instability threshold is derived. For spots of small radius, it is shown that this instability leads to a spot splitting into precisely two spots. For larger spots, it leads to deformation, fingering patterns, and space-filling curves. Numerical simulations are shown to be in close agreement with the analytical predictions.