Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty.

A formidable challenge for global change biologists is to predict how natural populations will respond to the emergence of conditions not observed at present, termed novel climates. Popular approaches to predict population vulnerability are based on the expected degree of novelty relative to the amplitude of historical climate fluctuations experienced by a population. Here, we argue that predictions focused on amplitude may be inaccurate because they ignore the predictability of environmental fluctuations in driving patterns of evolution and responses to climate change. To address this disconnect, we review major findings of evolutionary theory demonstrating the conditions under which phenotypic plasticity is likely to evolve in natural populations, and how plasticity decreases population vulnerability to novel environments. We outline key criteria that experimental studies should aim for to effectively test theoretical predictions, while controlling for the degree of climate novelty. We show that such targeted tests of evolutionary theory are rare, with marine systems being overall underrepresented in this venture despite exhibiting unique opportunities to test theory. We conclude that with more robust experimental designs that manipulate both the amplitude and predictability of fluctuations, while controlling for the degree of novelty, we may better predict population vulnerability to climate change.

Ontogeny influences sensitivity to climate change stressors in an endangered fish.

Coastal ecosystems are among the most human-impacted habitats globally, and their management is often critically linked to recovery of declining native species. In the San Francisco Estuary, the Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) is an endemic, endangered fish strongly tied to Californian conservation planning. The complex life history of Delta Smelt combined with dynamic seasonal and spatial abiotic conditions result in dissimilar environments experienced among ontogenetic stages, which may yield stage-specific susceptibility to abiotic stressors. Climate change is forecasted to increase San Francisco Estuary water temperature and salinity; therefore, understanding the influences of ontogeny and phenotypic plasticity on tolerance to these critical environmental parameters is particularly important for Delta Smelt and other San Francisco Estuary fishes. We assessed thermal and salinity limits in several ontogenetic stages and acclimation states of Delta Smelt, and paired these data with environmental data to evaluate sensitivity to climate-change stressors. Thermal tolerance decreased among successive stages, with larval fish exhibiting the highest tolerance and post-spawning adults having the lowest. Delta Smelt had limited capacity to increase tolerance through thermal acclimation, and comparisons with field temperature data revealed that juvenile tolerance limits are the closest to current environmental conditions, which may make this stage especially susceptible to future climate warming. Maximal water temperatures observed in situ exceeded tolerance limits of juveniles and adults. Although these temperature events are currently rare, if they increase in frequency as predicted, it could result in habitat loss at these locations despite other favourable conditions for Delta Smelt. In contrast, Delta Smelt tolerated salinities spanning the range of expected environmental conditions for each ontogenetic stage, but salinity did impact survival in juvenile and adult stages in exposures over acute time scales. Our results underscore the importance of considering ontogeny and phenotypic plasticity in assessing the impacts of climate change, particularly for species adapted to spatially and temporally heterogeneous environments.