Monitoring of species' genetic diversity in Europe varies greatly and overlooks potential climate change impacts.

Genetic monitoring of populations currently attracts interest in the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity but needs long-term planning and investments. However, genetic diversity has been largely neglected in biodiversity monitoring, and when addressed, it is treated separately, detached from other conservation issues, such as habitat alteration due to climate change. We report an accounting of efforts to monitor population genetic diversity in Europe (genetic monitoring effort, GME), the evaluation of which can help guide future capacity building and collaboration towards areas most in need of expanded monitoring. Overlaying GME with areas where the ranges of selected species of conservation interest approach current and future climate niche limits helps identify whether GME coincides with anticipated climate change effects on biodiversity. Our analysis suggests that country area, financial resources and conservation policy influence GME, high values of which only partially match species' joint patterns of limits to suitable climatic conditions. Populations at trailing climatic niche margins probably hold genetic diversity that is important for adaptation to changing climate. Our results illuminate the need in Europe for expanded investment in genetic monitoring across climate gradients occupied by focal species, a need arguably greatest in southeastern European countries. This need could be met in part by expanding the European Union's Birds and Habitats Directives to fully address the conservation and monitoring of genetic diversity.

Spatiotemporal monitoring of the rare northern dragonhead (Dracocephalum ruyschiana, Lamiaceae) - SNP genotyping and environmental niche modeling herbarium specimens.

The species we have studied the spatiotemporal genetic change in the northern dragonhead, a plant species that has experienced a drastic population decline and habitat loss in Europe. We have added a temporal perspective to the monitoring of northern dragonhead in Norway by genotyping herbarium specimens up to 200 years old. We have also assessed whether northern dragonhead has achieved its potential distribution in Norway. To obtain the genotype data from 130 herbarium specimens collected from 1820 to 2008, mainly from Norway (83) but also beyond (47), we applied a microfluidic array consisting of 96 SNP markers. To assess temporal genetic change, we compared our new genotype data with existing data from modern samples. We used sample metadata and observational records to model the species' environmental niche and potential distribution in Norway. Our results show that the SNP array successfully genotyped all included herbarium specimens. Hence, with the appropriate design procedures, the SNP array technology appears highly promising for genotyping old herbarium specimens. The captured genetic diversity correlates negatively with distance from Norway. The historical-modern comparisons reveal similar genetic structure and diversity across space and limited genetic change through time in Norway, providing no signs of any regional bottleneck (i.e., spatiotemporal stasis). The regional areas in Norway have remained genetically divergent, however, both from each other and more so from populations outside of Norway, rendering continued protection of the species in Norway relevant. The ENM results suggest that northern dragonhead has not fully achieved its potential distribution in Norway and corroborate that the species is anchored in warmer and drier habitats.

Harvest is associated with the disruption of social and fine-scale genetic structure among matrilines of a solitary large carnivore.

Harvest can disrupt wildlife populations by removing adults with naturally high survival. This can reshape sociospatial structure, genetic composition, fitness, and potentially affect evolution. Genetic tools can detect changes in local, fine-scale genetic structure (FGS) and assess the interplay between harvest-caused social and FGS in populations. We used data on 1614 brown bears, Ursus arctos, genotyped with 16 microsatellites, to investigate whether harvest intensity (mean low: 0.13 from 1990 to 2005, mean high: 0.28 from 2006 to 2011) caused changes in FGS among matrilines (8 matrilines; 109 females ≥4 years of age), sex-specific survival and putative dispersal distances, female spatial genetic autocorrelation, matriline persistence, and male mating patterns. Increased harvest decreased FGS of matrilines. Female dispersal distances decreased, and male reproductive success was redistributed more evenly. Adult males had lower survival during high harvest, suggesting that higher male turnover caused this redistribution and helped explain decreased structure among matrilines, despite shorter female dispersal distances. Adult female survival and survival probability of both mother and daughter were lower during high harvest, indicating that matriline persistence was also lower. Our findings indicate a crucial role of regulated harvest in shaping populations, decreasing differences among "groups," even for solitary-living species, and potentially altering the evolutionary trajectory of wild populations.

Genetic analysis indicates spatial-dependent patterns of sex-biased dispersal in Eurasian lynx in Finland.

Conservation and management of large carnivores requires knowledge of female and male dispersal. Such information is crucial to evaluate the population's status and thus management actions. This knowledge is challenging to obtain, often incomplete and contradictory at times. The size of the target population and the methods applied can bias the results. Also, population history and biological or environmental influences can affect dispersal on different scales within a study area. We have genotyped Eurasian lynx (180 males and 102 females, collected 2003-2017) continuously distributed in southern Finland (~23,000 km2) using 21 short tandem repeats (STR) loci and compared statistical genetic tests to infer local and sex-specific dispersal patterns within and across genetic clusters as well as geographic regions. We tested for sex-specific substructure with individual-based Bayesian assignment tests and spatial autocorrelation analyses. Differences between the sexes in genetic differentiation, relatedness, inbreeding, and diversity were analysed using population-based AMOVA, F-statistics, and assignment indices. Our results showed two different genetic clusters that were spatially structured for females but admixed for males. Similarly, spatial autocorrelation and relatedness was significantly higher in females than males. However, we found weaker sex-specific patterns for the Eurasian lynx when the data were separated in three geographical regions than when divided in the two genetic clusters. Overall, our results suggest male-biased dispersal and female philopatry for the Eurasian lynx in Southern Finland. The female genetic structuring increased from west to east within our study area. In addition, detection of male-biased dispersal was dependent on analytical methods utilized, on whether subtle underlying genetic structuring was considered or not, and the choice of population delineation. Conclusively, we suggest using multiple genetic approaches to study sex-biased dispersal in a continuously distributed species in which population delineation is difficult.

Genetic and demographic history define a conservation strategy for earth's most endangered pinniped, the Mediterranean monk seal Monachus monachus.

The Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus monachus) is a flagship species for marine conservation, but important aspects of its life history remain unknown. Concerns over imminent extinction motivated a nuclear DNA study of the species in its largest continuous subpopulation in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Despite recent evidence of partial subpopulation recovery, we demonstrate that there is no reason for complacency, as the species still shares several traits that are characteristic of a critically endangered species: Mediterranean monk seals in the eastern Mediterranean survive in three isolated and genetically depauperate population clusters, with small effective population sizes and high levels of inbreeding. Our results indicated male philopatry over short distances, which is unexpected for a polygynous mammal. Such a pattern may be explained by the species' unique breeding behavior, in which males defend aquatic territories near breeding sites, while females are often forced to search for new pupping areas. Immediate action is necessary to reverse the downward spiral of population decline, inbreeding accumulation and loss of genetic diversity. We propose concrete conservation measures for the Mediterranean monk seal focusing on reducing anthropogenic threats, increasing the population size and genetic diversity, and thus improving the long-term prospects of survival.

Genetic evidence of female kin clusters in a continuous population of a solitary carnivore, the Eurasian lynx.

Large terrestrial carnivores can sometimes display strong family bonds affecting the spatial distribution of related individuals. We studied the spatial genetic relatedness and family structure of female Eurasian lynx, continuously distributed in southern Finland. We hypothesized that closely related females form matrilineal assemblages, clustering together with relatives living in the neighboring areas. We evaluated this hypothesis using tissue samples of 133 legally harvested female lynx (from year 2007 to 2015), genotyped with 23 microsatellite markers, and tested for possible spatial genetic family structure using a combination of Bayesian clustering, spatial autocorrelation, and forensic genetic parentage analysis. The study population had three potential family genetic clusters, with a high degree of admixture and geographic overlap, and showed a weak but significant negative relationship between pairwise genetic and geographic distance. Moreover, parentage analysis indicated that 64% of the females had one or more close relatives (sister, mother, or daughter) within the study population. Individuals identified as close kin consistently assigned to the same putative family genetic cluster. They also were sampled closer geographically than females on average, although variation was large. Our results support the possibility that Eurasian lynx forms matrilineal assemblages, and comparisons with males are now required to further assess this hypothesis.

Sex-specific genetic analysis indicates low correlation between demographic and genetic connectivity in the Scandinavian brown bear (Ursus arctos).

The degree of gene flow within and among populations, i.e. genetic population connectivity, may closely track demographic population connectivity. Alternatively, the rate of gene flow may change relative to the rate of dispersal. In this study, we explored the relationship between genetic and demographic population connectivity using the Scandinavian brown bear as model species, due to its pronounced male dispersal and female philopatry. Thus, we expected that females would shape genetic structure locally, whereas males would act as genetic mediators among regions. To test this, we used eight validated microsatellite markers on 1531 individuals sampled noninvasively during country-wide genetic population monitoring in Sweden and Norway from 2006 to 2013. First, we determined sex-specific genetic structure and substructure across the study area. Second, we compared genetic differentiation, migration/gene flow patterns, and spatial autocorrelation results between the sexes both within and among genetic clusters and geographic regions. Our results indicated that demographic connectivity was not a reliable indicator of genetic connectivity. Among regions, we found no consistent difference in long-term gene flow and estimated current migration rates between males and females. Within regions/genetic clusters, only females consistently displayed significant positive spatial autocorrelation, indicating male-biased small-scale dispersal. In one cluster, however, males showed a dispersal pattern similar to females. The Scandinavian brown bear population has experienced substantial recovery over the last decades; however, our results did not show any changes in its large-scale population structure compared to previous studies, suggesting that an increase in population size and dispersal of individuals does not necessary lead to increased genetic connectivity. Thus, we conclude that both genetic and demographic connectivity should be estimated, so as not to make false assumptions about the reality of wildlife populations.

Genetic substructure and admixture as important factors in linkage disequilibrium-based estimation of effective number of breeders in recovering wildlife populations.

The number of effective breeders (Nb ) and effective population size (Ne ) are population parameters reflective of evolutionary potential, susceptibility to stochasticity, and viability. We have estimated these parameters using the linkage disequilibrium-based approach with LDNE through the latest phase of population recovery of the brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Finland (1993-2010; N = 621). This phase of the recovery was recently documented to be associated with major changes in genetic composition. In particular, differentiation between the northern and the southern genetic cluster declined rapidly within 1.5 generations. Based on this, we have studied effects of the changing genetic structure on Nb and Ne , by comparing estimates for whole Finland with the estimates for the two genetic clusters. We expected a potentially strong relationship between estimate sizes and genetic differentiation, which should disappear as the population recovers and clusters merge. Consistent with this, our estimates for whole Finland were lower than the sum of the estimates of the two genetic clusters and both approaches produced similar estimates in the end. Notably, we also found that admixed genotypes strongly increased the estimates. In all analyses, our estimates for Ne were larger than Nb and likely reflective for brown bears of the larger region of Finland and northwestern Russia. Conclusively, we find that neglecting genetic substructure may lead to a massive underestimation of Nb and Ne . Our results also suggest the need for further empirical analysis focusing on individuals with admixed genotypes and their potential high influence on Nb and Ne .

Evidence of rapid change in genetic structure and diversity during range expansion in a recovering large terrestrial carnivore.

Recovery of natural populations occurs often with simultaneous or subsequent range expansions. According to population genetic theory, genetic structuring emerges at the expansion front together with decreasing genetic diversity, owing to multiple founder events. Thereupon, as the expansion proceeds and connectivity among populations is established, homogenization and a resurgence of genetic diversity are to be expected. Few studies have used a fine temporal scale combined with genetic sampling to track range expansions as they proceed in wild animal populations. As a natural experiment, the historical eradication of large terrestrial carnivores followed by their recovery and recolonization may facilitate empirical tests of these ideas. Here, using brown bear (Ursus arctos) as model species, we tested predictions from genetic theory of range expansion. Individuals from all over Finland were genotyped for every year between 1996 and 2010 using 12 validated autosomal microsatellite markers. A latitudinal shift of about 110 km was observed in the distribution and delineation of genetic clusters during this period. As the range expansion proceeded, we found, as theory predicts, that the degree of genetic structure decreased, and that both genetic variation and admixture increased. The genetic consequences of range expansions may first be detected after multiple generations, but we found major changes in genetic composition after just 1.5 generations, accompanied by population growth and increased migration. These rapid genetic changes suggest an ongoing concerted action of geographical and demographic expansion combined with substantial immigration of bears from Russia during the recovery of brown bears within the large ecosystem of northern Europe.

Admixture and gene flow from Russia in the recovering Northern European brown bear (Ursus arctos).

Large carnivores were persecuted to near extinction during the last centuries, but have now recovered in some countries. It has been proposed earlier that the recovery of the Northern European brown bear is supported by migration from Russia. We tested this hypothesis by obtaining for the first time continuous sampling of the whole Finnish bear population, which is located centrally between the Russian and Scandinavian bear populations. The Finnish population is assumed to experience high gene flow from Russian Karelia. If so, no or a low degree of genetic differentiation between Finnish and Russian bears could be expected. We have genotyped bears extensively from all over Finland using 12 validated microsatellite markers and compared their genetic composition to bears from Russian Karelia, Sweden, and Norway. Our fine masked investigation identified two overlapping genetic clusters structured by isolation-by-distance in Finland (pairwise FST = 0.025). One cluster included Russian bears, and migration analyses showed a high number of migrants from Russia into Finland, providing evidence of eastern gene flow as an important driver during recovery. In comparison, both clusters excluded bears from Sweden and Norway, and we found no migrants from Finland in either country, indicating that eastern gene flow was probably not important for the population recovery in Scandinavia. Our analyses on different spatial scales suggest a continuous bear population in Finland and Russian Karelia, separated from Scandinavia.

Limited gene flow among brown bear populations in far Northern Europe? Genetic analysis of the east-west border population in the Pasvik Valley.

Noninvasively collected genetic data can be used to analyse large-scale connectivity patterns among populations of large predators without disturbing them, which may contribute to unravel the species' roles in natural ecosystems and their requirements for long-term survival. The demographic history of brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Northern Europe indicates several extinction and recolonization events, but little is known about present gene flow between populations of the east and west. We used 12 validated microsatellite markers to analyse 1580 hair and faecal samples collected during six consecutive years (2005-2010) in the Pasvik Valley at 70°N on the border of Norway, Finland and Russia. Our results showed an overall high correlation between the annual estimates of population size (N(c) ), density (D), effective size (N(e) ) and N(e) /N(c) ratio. Furthermore, we observed a genetic heterogeneity of ∼0.8 and high N(e) /N(c) ratios of ∼0.6, which suggests gene flow from the east. Thus, we expanded the population genetic study to include Karelia (Russia, Finland), Västerbotten (Sweden) and Troms (Norway) (477 individuals in total) and detected four distinct genetic clusters with low migration rates among the regions. More specifically, we found that differentiation was relatively low from the Pasvik Valley towards the south and east, whereas, in contrast, moderately high pairwise F(ST) values (0.91-0.12) were detected between the east and the west. Our results indicate ongoing limits to gene flow towards the west, and the existence of barriers to migration between eastern and western brown bear populations in Northern Europe.