The Mekong's future flows under multiple drivers: How climate change, hydropower developments and irrigation expansions drive hydrological changes.

The river flow regime and water resources are highly important for economic growths, flood security, and ecosystem dynamics in the Mekong basin - an important transboundary river basin in South East Asia. The river flow, although remains relatively unregulated, is expected to be increasingly perturbed by climate change and rapidly accelerating socioeconomic developments. Current understanding about hydrological changes under the combined impacts of these drivers, however, remains limited. This study presents projected hydrological changes caused by multiple drivers, namely climate change, large-scale hydropower developments, and irrigated land expansions by 2050s. We found that the future flow regime is highly susceptible to all considered drivers, shown by substantial changes in both annual and seasonal flow distribution. While hydropower developments exhibit limited impacts on annual total flows, climate change and irrigation expansions cause changes of +15% and -3% in annual flows, respectively. However, hydropower developments show the largest seasonal impacts characterized by higher dry season flows (up to +70%) and lower wet season flows (-15%). These strong seasonal impacts tend to outplay those of the other drivers, resulting in the overall hydrological change pattern of strong increases of the dry season flow (up to +160%); flow reduction in the first half of the wet season (up to -25%); and slight flow increase in the second half of the wet season (up to 40%). Furthermore, the cumulative impacts of all drivers cause substantial flow reductions during the early wet season (up to -25% in July), posing challenges for crop production and saltwater intrusion in the downstream Mekong Delta. Substantial flow changes and their consequences require careful considerations of future development activities, as well as timely adaptation to future changes.

Patterns of ecosystem metabolism in the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia with links to capture fisheries.

The Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia is a dynamic flood-pulsed ecosystem that annually increases its surface area from roughly 2,500 km(2) to over 12,500 km(2) driven by seasonal flooding from the Mekong River. This flooding is thought to structure many of the critical ecological processes, including aquatic primary and secondary productivity. The lake also has a large fishery that supports the livelihoods of nearly 2 million people. We used a state-space oxygen mass balance model and continuous dissolved oxygen measurements from four locations to provide the first estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) for the Tonle Sap. GPP averaged 4.1±2.3 g O2 m(-3) d(-1) with minimal differences among sites. There was a negative correlation between monthly GPP and lake level (r = 0.45) and positive correlation with turbidity (r = 0.65). ER averaged 24.9±20.0 g O2 m(-3) d(-1) but had greater than six-fold variation among sites and minimal seasonal change. Repeated hypoxia was observed at most sampling sites along with persistent net heterotrophy (GPP

Sediment: curse or blessing for Tonle Sap Lake?

It has been claimed that Tonle Sap Lake is rapidly filling with sediment as a result of increasing sediment yields from the catchment. Infilling of the lake basin would have serious implications for the magnitude of flooding in central Cambodia and the Mekong Delta region and threaten the lake's unique ecosystem. In this article, we synthesize the results of radiocarbon dating of sediment cores and hydrodynamic modeling results to provide an empirically based assessment of this issue. We find that current sedimentation rates within the lake basin proper are low and have been for several millennia. However, sedimentation at the lake margin and in its floodplain is relatively high, which presents a range of issues for riparian communities.

Flood pulse alterations and productivity of the Tonle Sap ecosystem: a model for impact assessment.

Tonle Sap Lake is a large and complex data-deficient ecosystem in the Mekong River Basin. Highly valuable in biodiversity and natural livelihoods capital, it is susceptible to degradation when the flood pulse that drives its productivity is altered as a result of hydropower and irrigation development on the Mekong River. To date, there are no tools to assess the consequences of such flood pulse alterations, leaving the Tonle Sap underrated in water-resources use and planning. A combined ecological-hydrodynamic model is presented for the production potential of the Tonle Sap ecosystem and its likely response to hydrological changes.